[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

The samurai news (again)...

Someone tell me if I am over emphasizing this news. But I currently feel like very little talk is happening about something fundamentally very large coming to the Monero blockchain.

I've been digging in more deeply to the samurai wallet developers implementing the Bitcoin side of atomic swaps in their privacy centric wallet and what that may mean for our community.

It's interesting to watch them dance around the Bitcoin maxi types that are angry at them for having anything to do with a shitcoin. But the samurai team are cypherpunk privacy maxies before anything else so in their world using monero is an obvious play.

I have not been able to get clarity on how they intend to implement this. So far what I'm reading is they intend to use monero to deal with the toxic (or sometimes I hear it called doxxic) change problem. If I'm understanding this correctly this is currently thousands of Bitcoin left over from whirlpool activities that are sort of having to be abandoned because for some reason being change in these transactions taints them. And the idea is that Bitcoin will be able to be swapped back and forth with monero perhaps multiple times to mix it, using a completely different method than what they built so far in their privacy stack.

They would not be holding any monero in the samurai wallet. So presumably if you have a monero side of this you'll have to deal with that in a monero wallet (Monerujo, cake, etc?).

I cannot tell yet if this functionality would be able to be used easily for people who want to just swap back and forth manually. It sounds more like they're building it as part of their privacy stack and it will be more of a sort of underneath the hood transaction. So that's one interesting detail that remains to be seen.

This is going to be on ramps and off ramps into monero that bring significant traffic to our blockchain. This is going to swiftly increase the demand for monero liquidity.

And frankly I just don't see how this can't have an impact on the price. Because it's possible that this function ends up dominating the use of an enormous amount of monero liquidity.

As exchanges delist us because we're dangerous (!) All of that traffic is going to be driven straight into the arms of this new functionality. And it's an upgrade not a workaround. I would imagine at first liquidity might be choppy and prices might be all over the place kind of like Bisq. But over time I believe we will see the market smooth out into one of the first true crypto free market expressions we've ever seen.

All of this cosplay on ethereum around defi and useless garbage being built there  amounts to fantastic Rube Goldberg structures but does nothing valuable.  We are about to see what the real thing is. This is a real world smart contract decentralized trading system with an actual fundamental and extremely compelling purpose.

I have been singing the song of monero being a compliment to Bitcoin for years. And I have become very distraught recently seeing this anti Bitcoin tide rise in the monero community. I suppose it makes sense and I do agree with some of the ideas as is often quoted "monero is what you thought you were buying when you got Bitcoin". But monero does something Bitcoin can't do and Bitcoin does things that monero doesn't do as well.

After a decade nearly of meaningless crypto trading we are about to see one of the first actual uses that the word needs built between two blockchains.

One future looking question. How long before the developers and users of samurai realize that this privacy method is way more efficient and effective than all of the whirlpool stuff they've already built. I would think at some point people will begin to think moving just into and out of monero is extremely effective. And then inevitably some of them will start to wonder why to even move back.

I just think we're completely underestimating what's about to hit.

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[Hueristic]

And frankly I just don't see how this can't have an impact on the price. Because it's possible that this function ends up dominating the use of an enormous amount of monero liquidity.

My thought is this will have a downward pressure as the Monero they get for their taint will immediately get dumped at market. They have no intention of using Monero as nothing more than a dumping ground for their toxic waste and that will add to the FUD that Monero is noting more than illegal coins.


The more this plays out the less I like it.


I wouldn't recommend supporting with your coins unless you ask an absurdly high swap value like 400% at a minimum.

[cAPSLOCK]

And frankly I just don't see how this can't have an impact on the price. Because it's possible that this function ends up dominating the use of an enormous amount of monero liquidity.

My thought is this will have a downward pressure as the Monero they get for their taint will immediately get dumped at market. They have no intention of using Monero as nothing more than a dumping ground for their toxic waste and that will add to the FUD that Monero is noting more than illegal coins.


The more this plays out the less I like it.


I wouldn't recommend supporting with your coins unless you ask an absurdly high swap value like 400% at a minimum.

Interesting take. But monero cannot be a "dumping ground" since it's fungible. One you own monero you them have the issue of buying the toxic Bitcoin back from the same market.

I also can't see how this has a negative impact on monero prices. Because all of the market is going to be using monero as a tool. Some will be buying it and then dumping it back and others will be buying it and holding on to it for a period of time but there will be a demand for monero that becomes constant. And the demand for coming back into Bitcoin will carry a premium that will be paid by the person doing that trade.

At first it will be impossible for there to be more supply than demand on the monero side. Because monero is what has the premium in this trade. If they want to use these trading vehicles they'll have to pay whatever is being asked.

It is an extremely interesting dynamic. I wonder if there are any other free market money systems that offered this kind of trade. In the first realm...

I agree that it may up the ante on monero as a money laundering tool. But we're never going to get away from that reality. That is why monero is valuable in the first place. Not for money laundering specifically but for the privacy and freedom that allows that use to occur.

[cAPSLOCK]

I think if I had lower swining balls I could hav e made an aweful lot of Monero trading it's very clear ranges.  It SO OFTEN does this sort of thing...



Time to sell?  Or going to break out?

[Hueristic]

I think if I had lower swining balls I could hav e made an aweful lot of Monero trading it's very clear ranges.  It SO OFTEN does this sort of thing...

I used to do good during these times until Polo started cancelling all my winning moves and now binance is no longer accessible for us in "the land of the free".

[Millionero]

if I had lower swinging balls

Be careful what you wish for.

[johnfoss]

The Monero Moon (Issue 22) is now available for your reading pleasure. Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-22-e37d7f4bbe5a

[johnfoss]

The Monero Moon (Issue 23) is now available for your reading pleasure.

This is a bumper and comprehensive issue!!

Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-23-6f683202ed78

[Febo]

https://unstoppableswap.net/

It seems some are already trying to get meting place where demand and supply will bet for BTC XMR atomic swaps. Right now they use testnet. I guess these markets will come in many shapes and will evolve fast over time.

[Hueristic]

https://unstoppableswap.net/

It seems some are already trying to get meting place where demand and supply will bet for BTC XMR atomic swaps. Right now they use testnet. I guess these markets will come in many shapes and will evolve fast over time.

Anyone selling their Monero for less than 4 to 1 is a fool.

Anyone selling their btc for monero off books is doing it because its tainted.

[cAPSLOCK]

https://unstoppableswap.net/

It seems some are already trying to get meting place where demand and supply will bet for BTC XMR atomic swaps. Right now they use testnet. I guess these markets will come in many shapes and will evolve fast over time.

Anyone selling their Monero for less than 4 to 1 is a fool.

Anyone selling their btc for monero off books is doing it because its tainted.

So, this obviously is the dawn of some major speculative interestingness for Montago.

Does one want to enter the possibly lucrative, but also dangerous world that is about to burst forth?

Unfortunately(?) we continue to prove ourselves in the highest adversarial environment possible.  This PROVES Monero has way more value than is currently reflected by the price, but it will also draw a huge amount of legal attention to us again.

kind of a mixed bag, if you ask me.  But overall quite interesting!

[LUCKMCFLY]

Monero has been in an eventual downward activity, it is normal, the price of BTC has been falling a little, it is going through the levels of $ 32k, although the fall is not much, it can occur that at any time Monero of a To a great surprise, the Monero bulls are waiting for the right time to act:

The daily technical chart for Monero pictured that XMR had lost momentum at the time of writing, declining by 6.5% over the last 24 hours. Monero’s price had been consolidating between the resistance and support levels of $225 and $196 over the last week. With today’s fall, the alt’s price fell below the crucial support level of $196.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/eos-monero-iota-price-analysis-14-july/

For now it is best to wait and have Monero in Hodl mode, I do not see as a good option to sell.

[cAPSLOCK]

I cannot tell you how satisfying it is to see my predictions from 2014 come true.  I posted something on Reddit, i think, or here... about BTC and Monero finding a kinship that people do not expect.



And we are going to see it.  And already are.  Just the HYPE for Monero is going to drive it's price MUUUUUCH higher.  At least until it gets made illegal by a government.  In the end the price is, as we said back then as well... not the point.

Don't buy Monero.  Use it.


I feel bad that I do not like this show because Truman is leading the sort of anti-BTC maxi charge (and I know there are people here who agree with him) but this episode is wonderful.  And I have found I am way fonder of the Samourai guys...

https://t.co/QsrCyABOuP?amp=1

[tokeweed]

^  Uuuh you’re saying, almost shilling, the hype will drive the price much higher then say it’s not the point.  Why mention the hype in the first place?

And how can we use Monero if we don’t buy Monero?  And what’s really happening here is what Fluffy said years ago.  It’s beta vs VHS.  Beta was the superior tech but everybody used VHS cos it had more marketing behind it and the companies that mattered in that space all supported it.

[Hueristic]

^  Uuuh you’re saying, almost shilling, the hype will drive the price much higher then say it’s not the point.  Why mention the hype in the first place?

And how can we use Monero if we don’t buy Monero?  And what’s really happening here is what Fluffy said years ago.  It’s beta vs VHS.  Beta was the superior tech but everybody used VHS cos it had more marketing behind it and the companies that mattered in that space all supported it.

Actually everyone used VHS because it was Much Much cheaper, Sony shot themselfs in the foot by pricing everyone else out of owning a betamax. Another example of this was IBM with OS2. And LAserdisks.

But don't let a bad analogy stand in your way of making a good argument.

[cAPSLOCK]

^  Uuuh you’re saying, almost shilling, the hype will drive the price much higher then say it’s not the point.  Why mention the hype in the first place?

And how can we use Monero if we don’t buy Monero?  And what’s really happening here is what Fluffy said years ago.  It’s beta vs VHS.  Beta was the superior tech but everybody used VHS cos it had more marketing behind it and the companies that mattered in that space all supported it.

You can call what I am doing shilling if you want.  But this is a weird place to shill.  No one here is buying all that much Monero based on something I am saying are they?  What I am saying is Monero is destined to enter a phase of being USED for it's intended purpose in a way that it very unique and might create pressure on the price.  But ironically it will not be because people are dumping money into Monero as a singular investment.

It will be a completely novel interplay between two cryptographic systems in which value is a secondary trait to privacy.

[Febo]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily transactions by quarter.



What we can see is that even if number of transactions decreased in June compared to previous months, overall trend is still strong.

[Millionero]

https://t.co/QsrCyABOuP?amp=1

Brevity is the soul of wit.
Endless conversations that could be condensed into five or ten minutes of succinct information, or better yet a written synopsis covering a few important points, are the soul of youtube.

[cAPSLOCK]

https://t.co/QsrCyABOuP?amp=1

Brevity is the soul of wit.
Endless conversations that could be condensed into five or ten minutes of succinct information, or better yet a written synopsis covering a few important points, are the soul of youtube.

I agree it was blathery.  But it was nice to get to hear the Samourai fellow.  Those guys have been so demonized by so many.  I used to judge them poorly.  I am changing to thinking they are kind of over the target.

[tokeweed]

^  Uuuh you’re saying, almost shilling, the hype will drive the price much higher then say it’s not the point.  Why mention the hype in the first place?

And how can we use Monero if we don’t buy Monero?  And what’s really happening here is what Fluffy said years ago.  It’s beta vs VHS.  Beta was the superior tech but everybody used VHS cos it had more marketing behind it and the companies that mattered in that space all supported it.

Actually everyone used VHS because it was Much Much cheaper, Sony shot themselfs in the foot by pricing everyone else out of owning a betamax. Another example of this was IBM with OS2. And LAserdisks.

But don't let a bad analogy stand in your way of making a good argument.

Bad analogy or not, Fluffy def made a really good point.  And he foresaw exactly that.  Better tech doesn’t automatically mean a higher spot at CMC.  If anything, I think XMR should be top 5.  IMHO.  But it’s more complicated than that.  And there’s always that threat looming of some exchange deciding to delist it.