[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Globb0]

 Atomic swaps friend. The end of exchange manipulation.

[1713910663]

1713910663

[1713910663]

1713910663

[1713910663]

1713910663

[1713910663]

1713910663

[tokeweed]

^  Dunno about that.  Volume and liquidity matters a whole lot.  And source of price where all exchanges base their own is from the market where there’s a whole lot of volume and liqudity.  Even if Atomic swaps try to dictate the ‘real price’ of XMR, it will be arb’d enough to be priced the same as the market.

[Hueristic]

^  Dunno about that.  Volume and liquidity matters a whole lot.  And source of price where all exchanges base their own is from the market where there’s a whole lot of volume and liqudity.  Even if Atomic swaps try to dictate the ‘real price’ of XMR, it will be arb’d enough to be priced the same as the market.

You can't arb taint.

[explorer]

2830 tph.  That was a nice bump to what has been a lesser transaction rate lately.

[cAPSLOCK]

2830 tph.  That was a nice bump to what has been a lesser transaction rate lately.

Interesting thing about Monero's transactions.

Few cryptocurrencies share monero's particular usage pattern.  Monero CONSISANTLY has the least transactions happen on Saturday, with the second least on Sunday.  And the cycle is almost freakishly consistently rhythmic.  BTC and ETH also follow this pattern but to a much lesser extent.  Garbage like ZCash follow a random walk based on trading.


This very clearly  demonstrates Monero is being used consistently for commerce on a limited number of platforms which influence this "weekends off" pattern.  If you were to visit WHM for example you would see that most vendors ship on M-F.

Monero is extraordinary.

[Globb0]

^  Dunno about that.  Volume and liquidity matters a whole lot.  And source of price where all exchanges base their own is from the market where there’s a whole lot of volume and liqudity.  Even if Atomic swaps try to dictate the ‘real price’ of XMR, it will be arb’d enough to be priced the same as the market.

Yeah but if monero becomes the bitcoin privacy layer skys the limit?

[cAPSLOCK]

^  Dunno about that.  Volume and liquidity matters a whole lot.  And source of price where all exchanges base their own is from the market where there’s a whole lot of volume and liqudity.  Even if Atomic swaps try to dictate the ‘real price’ of XMR, it will be arb’d enough to be priced the same as the market.

Yeah but if monero becomes the bitcoin privacy layer skys the limit?

Exactly.  And I think this will actually be the case.  At LEAST it will be Bitcoin's industrial strength privacy layer. I think lesser, but significant privacy will be acheived on LN and Liquid.

I am looking forward to seeing what the Samourai integration looks like in action.  From my understanding it not going to act as a marketplace, but as a way to deal with change UTXOs that have privacy problems.  If that works, I am not sure why Samourai could not shift even more traffic over to the BTC<=>XMR swaps as they will act as not only as a mixing method, but they will be an BLACK HOLE and break of the previous chain.

From my understanding whirlpool breaks deterministic links by introducing so many extra paths that they become too difficult to trace accurately for very far.  Like trying to follow a single strand of spaghetti in a colander.   This SWAP functionality will act in a completely different way and be more like a wormhole.  BTC goes in at one place, and then has NOTHING AT ALL TO DO with where it might "come out".  It causes strand of spaghetti to actually turn INTO other strands with no record of it happening.  If they were to use this method with whirlpool it would create a level of chaos and entropy that would be incredibly difficult to even begin to look at.

Obviously seeing apps that act as sort of a market will also be useful and interesting.

My thought is if moving to/from Monero becomes useful and common then two things naturally follow.

-Monero usage, transactions and most likely price, go up.
-More people begin to just PARK some of their value in XMR which naturally makes it more valuable.

There is a REASON to HOLD bitcoin -> value storage.
There is a REASON to hold ETH - > ability to take part in various scams

But the only reason currently to hold monero is privacy and speculation.  That does NOT have the same draw even though WE know it should.  This development is going to make the reasons to hold monero far more understandable.

I do not think it is clear to us all yet how much the exchanges create significant friction going into and out of Monero, as well as that being a major identity problem.  When that friction is gone, and FULL privacy is gained we just set our selves up for a significant virtuous cycle.

I think the question mark here is if Monero becomes a attractor for the most tainted of all BTC.  I have not worked out in my noggin yet the implications of that... Seems a little risky, but at the same time... risky to whom?

[fastlight]

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context. Otherwise privacy isn't even a question, but even on a clear chain the easiest way is to bring to end of life those seeking to breach it / control everything.
How do you call someone trying to follow you and see what you do each time you open your physical wallet and spend or receive a bank note? A stalker? A threat? A psycho? You can as always paper trail him to the nearest police station (if those thing still exist in your neck of the wood) or to a darker alley...

be ready for max fud by the control freaks (cbds, aka central bank digital scams) and others "open chain data harvesters".

[cAPSLOCK]

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context. Otherwise privacy isn't even a question, but even on a clear chain the easiest way is to bring to end of life those seeking to breach it / control everything.
How do you call someone trying to follow you and see what you do each time you open your physical wallet and spend or receive a bank note? A stalker? A threat? A psycho? You can as always paper trail him to the nearest police station (if those thing still exist in your neck of the wood) or to a darker alley...

be ready for max fud by the control freaks (cbds, aka central bank digital scams) and others "open chain data harvesters".

As far as inflation goes, I personally do not think this is a settled question. 

The bitcoin experiment is a long way off from no block subsidy.
Decades will pass before we get close.
Either blocksizes will have increased, or layered systems will allow bitcoin to be a settlement chain with very dense, but very expensive transactions on the base chain.

Monero will probably need this as well frankly.  It's emission barely even lifts it out of deflationary status in my opinion.

[Febo]

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context.

Since you mention PoW I imagine you talk about monetary inflation. Right now, although most people are convinced opposite there is no big coin without monetary inflation. Yes many coins have plans to have none 100 years from now. But if we look 100 years back and imagine changes will be much faster in next 100 years, probably none coin will survive until then.

Only important question is what % should it be. The basic answer to this should be 1.7%, the same as Gold have.  Bitcoin is there right now, and it seems it works quite well for him.

[Millionero]

The inflation rate of gold is responsive to market forces.

[fastlight]

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context. Otherwise privacy isn't even a question, but even on a clear chain the easiest way is to bring to end of life those seeking to breach it / control everything.
How do you call someone trying to follow you and see what you do each time you open your physical wallet and spend or receive a bank note? A stalker? A threat? A psycho? You can as always paper trail him to the nearest police station (if those thing still exist in your neck of the wood) or to a darker alley...

be ready for max fud by the control freaks (cbds, aka central bank digital scams) and others "open chain data harvesters".

As far as inflation goes, I personally do not think this is a settled question. 

The bitcoin experiment is a long way off from no block subsidy.
Decades will pass before we get close.
Either blocksizes will have increased, or layered systems will allow bitcoin to be a settlement chain with very dense, but very expensive transactions on the base chain.

Monero will probably need this as well frankly.  It's emission barely even lifts it out of deflationary status in my opinion.

I agree with you, the "inflation" rate on monero is super low... I mean as base 0.6 xmr every ~2.5min. However I think it provides just the right amount incentive to keep the miners mining and as such the network decentralized and resilient, specially that it's CPU only.

I am in no way a nobitcoiner or stupid maximalist. It's just another chain, with, imho, a closer realization of the project of satoshi.

Monero blocks are elastic, so... there is no big block psychological war here. The more txs, the more the base mining inflation is increased, hoping that it bring decentralized and resilient mining interest.

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context.

Since you mention PoW I imagine you talk about monetary inflation. Right now, although most people are convinced opposite there is no big coin without monetary inflation. Yes many coins have plans to have none 100 years from now. But if we look 100 years back and imagine changes will be much faster in next 100 years, probably none coin will survive until then.

Only important question is what % should it be. The basic answer to this should be 1.7%, the same as Gold have.  Bitcoin is there right now, and it seems it works quite well for him.

My mention of PoW was as explained above oriented primarily on the mining side of the equation. Including that holders too pay a kind of fee, by storing value in XMR, contributing as such to the safety of the PoW network (mininers income), again reinforcing the decentralized and resiliency of the network (in particular against nation state attempt of take down).

However from an economic perspective, it's madness to take a loan (bring now forward income (which is what a loan is)) in BTC... meaning that you may never be able to repay it if the supply "locks"... (be it in fiat or btc), with XMR there is an opportunity due to the low inflation rate to be able to repay it (adding the lost coins / dead holders paradigm), meaning that monero seems a good opportunity to build an economical ecosystem.

the real goal isn't to "store value" but to increase currency velocity, so that the real goods you hold, have the most use for you, at any given time.

However as you and the previous poster said, time will tell...

The inflation rate of gold is responsive to market forces.

You can buy gold with monero if you wish... but gold supply in the absolute as nothing to do with "market forces", but just the laws of the universe. The question being if the universe is infinite . However, btc or xmr, are limited by maths...  and consensus, as such the point about miners financial health.

Thanks for your replies, have you tried : https://xmr.poker/en/join ?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Monero is one of the most winning coins on the market, it has risen its market capitalization by 3.62% and has increased by 2.5%, the Monero bulls are seen to have bought in the dip, which is a strategy that many investors did , not bad, it's a very smart move:

Monero’s price action was halted after yesterday’s plunge in prices, however, over the last 24 hours XMR rose by 2.5%. At press time, the coin was trading for $230, gaining 23.3% over the last week. On the upside, if bulls gain momentum, prices could see resistance at $232 and with a fall, support region lies at $215. Market capitalization increased by 3.62% overnight.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-matic-and-binance-coin-price-analysis-july-28/
For now Monero represents a very good investment, of course BTC is the one who gives the direction to follow in the market, but due to the characteristics of Monero it is a great investment option.

[fastlight]

Monero is one of the most winning coins on the market, it has risen its market capitalization by 3.62% and has increased by 2.5%, the Monero bulls are seen to have bought in the dip, which is a strategy that many investors did , not bad, it's a very smart move:

Monero’s price action was halted after yesterday’s plunge in prices, however, over the last 24 hours XMR rose by 2.5%. At press time, the coin was trading for $230, gaining 23.3% over the last week. On the upside, if bulls gain momentum, prices could see resistance at $232 and with a fall, support region lies at $215. Market capitalization increased by 3.62% overnight.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-matic-and-binance-coin-price-analysis-july-28/
For now Monero represents a very good investment, of course BTC is the one who gives the direction to follow in the market, but due to the characteristics of Monero it is a great investment option.

you wrote that, or it's just some copy-paste for your sig campaign?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Monero is one of the most winning coins on the market, it has risen its market capitalization by 3.62% and has increased by 2.5%, the Monero bulls are seen to have bought in the dip, which is a strategy that many investors did , not bad, it's a very smart move:

Monero’s price action was halted after yesterday’s plunge in prices, however, over the last 24 hours XMR rose by 2.5%. At press time, the coin was trading for $230, gaining 23.3% over the last week. On the upside, if bulls gain momentum, prices could see resistance at $232 and with a fall, support region lies at $215. Market capitalization increased by 3.62% overnight.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-matic-and-binance-coin-price-analysis-july-28/
For now Monero represents a very good investment, of course BTC is the one who gives the direction to follow in the market, but due to the characteristics of Monero it is a great investment option.

you wrote that, or it's just some copy-paste for your sig campaign?

It is an article under which, I analyzed it, put the image and cited a part of it, it is never copy-paste because I placed the source, I place it that way because the analysis seems very interesting to me, when it is copy-paste is when plagiarism is done without acknowledging the author, now the fact that the comment that Monero does it good for BTC to continue rising and recovering is beneficial is due to the fact that investors will see more confidence in the market, and if there is a slight correction, the most They are likely to use Monero as a possible haven of value. Maybe you didn't see that I placed the source>: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-matic-and-binance-coin-price-analysis-july-28/

And if you understand a little more about the volume, it is easy to deduce that they were buying in the dip, if you go further back in the history of Monero it can be deduced.

[explorer]

   With only 2 days remaining to close out the month, the monthly transaction count has made a significant recovery.


                           XMR            BTC              RATIO
Jul 2021 (est)   714,553   6,739,989     10.60%

 www.Monero.how

[fastlight]

Base reward
0.923460305405
Transactions fee
0.00065077
Reward
0.924111075405
Total coins in the network
17,962,585.841220390052
Total transactions in the network
17,563,091

https://minergate.com/blockchain/xmr/block/3beec8d6de071623e7ee05d8a225adc5ff923844920d017f96ca80df3a1a5424

! XMR is made to be used ! ever tried : https://xmr.poker/en/join (I am not affiliated, I just like to win your XMRs ).

[tokeweed]

Wtf going on with Fluffy guys..  I heard he was arrested somewhere in the US.  And who’s with him right now?  What I heard is he’s being hassled for fraud or something he did way waaay back before crypto.  

Edit:  It’s in Coindesk

https://www.coindesk.com/former-monero-maintainer-fluffypony-to-be-extradited-for-non-crypto-crimes

Rofl it says:  ‘ Spagni is believed to have “significant cryptocurrency assets that would enable him to flee” as well as a “watch valued at $800,000,” according to the warrant.’.

Don’t forget to highlight that watch!  Lolol.

Edit:  The Monero core team removed him from all admin access to Monero repos.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ox1167/in_light_of_fluffypony_s_being_offline_and_in/

Dev team is on to the Feds.

Edit:  Reading most of the replies here:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/owkdlk/moneros_former_maintainer_arrested_in_us_for/

I’m getting worried for him tbh.

[explorer]

Wtf going on with Fluffy guys..  I heard he was arrested somewhere in the US.  And who’s with him right now?  What I heard is he’s being hassled for fraud or something he did way waaay back before crypto.  

Edit:  It’s in Coindesk

https://www.coindesk.com/former-monero-maintainer-fluffypony-to-be-extradited-for-non-crypto-crimes

Rofl it says:  ‘ Spagni is believed to have “significant cryptocurrency assets that would enable him to flee” as well as a “watch valued at $800,000,” according to the warrant.’.

Don’t forget to highlight that watch!  Lolol.

Edit:  The Monero core team removed him from all admin access to Monero repos.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ox1167/in_light_of_fluffypony_s_being_offline_and_in/

Dev team is on to the Feds.

Edit:  Reading most of the replies here:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/owkdlk/moneros_former_maintainer_arrested_in_us_for/

I’m getting worried for him tbh.

   Damn.  What's worse right now?  SA, or US?  At least he can afford the best bloodsuckers.

Meanwhile...

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
                     Monero        Bitcoin         Ratio
Aug 2021 (est)   1,347,074   6,578,727   20.48%
Jul 2021        722,890   6,813,109   10.61%
Jun 2021        547,057   6,516,445   8.40%
May 2021       718,906   7,791,611   9.23%
Apr 2021      748,099   8,349,964   8.96%
Mar 2021      716,065   9,342,128   7.66%
Feb 2021      517,843   8,969,658   5.77%
Jan 2021      607,989   10,075,353   6.03%
Dec 2020        593,322   9,732,999   6.10%
Nov 2020        523,842   9,145,550   5.73%
Oct 2020        501,273   9,284,673   5.40%
Sep 2020        396,854   9,495,331   4.18%

http://monero.how

Looking like higher highs in hash rate as well.


Is BTC transaction count going to stagnate, with coin shortages and Lightning taking off?

Regardless, I can't see XMR languishing in triple digit$ much longer.

[Sipizter]

I’m getting worried for him tbh.

Don't be worried. He apparently just missed a court date or something to that effect:
https://twitter.com/Spatzipantz/status/1422533018397384709