[XMR] Monero Speculation

[h3speros]

We have made a quadruple bottom in 394-397 range, after bouncing once from 400 first, and very recently from 401 also.

The bottoming process seems quite complete to me. Therefore I dare to predict that the next move is up, towards some of the various fibonacci levels between 510->394->X.

It is impossible to say now if the monthly high was just made in 510, or if this was a more-vicious-than-normal battle in preparation for taking down 580. My understanding is that 510 is currently the zone to watch. Should we blast through, the battle of 580 is actually won already. Most resistance will be in 450-480 area.

other possibility is (and maybe more likely) that we are resting right above support, without bounces and waiting when the selling starts

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[rpietila]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

[h3speros]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

50k dump is not so big, we have had approx 80k daily volume now, if selling doesnt end it doesnt take many days to dump those walls to oblivion (if majority of those are even real)

[rpietila]

Whatever. Hopefully others found my post more insightful than this newbie..

No, that was mean 

Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read! 

[farfiman]

Whatever. Hopefully others found my post more insightful than this newbie..

No, that was mean 

Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read! 

I don't really understand why you waste so much time answering every comment- sometimes they aren't worth the trouble.

[h3speros]

Whatever. Hopefully others found my post more insightful than this newbie..

No, that was mean 

Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read! 

i did read your post, i just wanted to point out that orderbook is thin compared to volume so those "walls" doesnt necessarily mean much, you don't have to be a big player to make those kind of "walls"

theres data that might suggest this downturn isnt over yet

[h3speros]

Whatever. Hopefully others found my post more insightful than this newbie..

No, that was mean  

Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read!  

i did read your post, i just wanted to point out that orderbook is thin compared to volume so those "walls" doesnt necessarily mean much, you don't have to be a big player to make those kind of "walls"

theres data that might suggest this downturn isnt over yet

are you also considering hitbtc? it has over 60% of poloniex volume

i have studied only poloniex data

[Skinnkavaj]

Anyone have any reason to trust Hitbtc with money?
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.

Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.

[h3speros]

Anyone have any reason to trust Hitbtc with money?
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.

Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.

whats wrong with poloniex?

[rpietila]

I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.

About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump  ). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.

I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.

[h3speros]

I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.

About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump  ). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.

I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.

you have not proven anything, you don't know if i have more than 50k

all i said was that those "walls" are not so big, many ppl have so many bitcoins that they could come here in xmr market and draw some new curves to us to analyze

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

[rpietila]

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:

- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.

[h3speros]

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:

- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.

you were the one that started to talk about walls

volume is an indicator

and that last one is just pointing out the obvious...

[dEBRUYNE]

Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O

[dEBRUYNE]

Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O

someone (h3speros?? lol) is trying to impress a lot of folks here, or dump would have commenced i think.

Probably some showing off indeed, but I'm curious in which direction we will go.

[rpietila]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

[Skinnkavaj]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

Don't think it's a good analysis. We have been up and visisted 0.005 at least 2 times now on the shorter time frame, 4 times on the larger one. The big holders of XMR have already had their chance to sell.

There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.

[h3speros]

im not trying to impress anybody, i was just pointing out that those walls are not so big compared to volume

risto above is basing hes "good analysis" on those walls, then he says walls lie and then he says im wrong

im just trying to point out these illogics

[Skinnkavaj]

I have noticed a lot of times when me and rpietila pulled out numbers for bottoms forming, and most of the times the market have followed the numbers we put out.
Might be a coincidence or not, who knows.

[aminorex]

- walls always lie

except when they don't

relying upon someone else's ask or bid not to be pulled, except during the time it takes you to hit it, would be rather absurd, but a bid is a bid and an ask is an ask.  it is liquidity.  it has the lifetime of liquidity.  you can rely on that.

- indicators are meaningless

except when they aren't

i shouldn't even start on this.  you know they just provide (or fail to provide) a quantifiable edge.  there's nothing meaningless about that.  so i guess you're using "meaningless" in a specialized sense?