Will there be a rally in September?

[3x2]

A slow rise expected but not a rally like last year ... But who knows  

[1714879945]

1714879945

[ensurance982]

This is a tough one now... I guess if people are coming back from their summer vacations and trading commences again, we may see another big rally. I'm all in for a slow but sustainable growth over the period of a couple months.

[windjc]

I think Bitcoin is in the "chasm" stage, as much as that stage can apply to Bitcoin.  We are somewhere between where all the early speculators have invested and where the public can start adopting it (via regulations and new platforms for trading and purchasing and remittance, etc.).

How long will it take to get over this chasm? Who knows - that's the million (multi-billion) dollar question. Meanwhile, the price will struggle with support until we cross the chasm. I expect we could go as low as <$250 again if there is a long wait (12-18 months).  Or if some of these innovations come early (3-6) months we might see another bubble first quarter of 2015.

But for now we are in a long slog of having speculative money holding the price up as the chasm phase price discovery unravels.

[srgkrgkj]

IT only takes breaking the physcological barrier. Bitcoins value is placed by the physcological aspects behind it ...

[KarmaShark]

I believe there will be the start of a rally before the years end, which will carry into the spring of 2015. The level of innovation, awareness and adoption is too great to have the price sit in the $500 range for a full year from now. We also had an incredible price run from low $xxx all the way up to $1200 range, some time is needed to seek equilibrium. This feels very much like the summer of 2013 to me, and I believe the ETF's will be the trigger for the rally when they are finally released. It is hard for me to fathom any other news triggering the run. Wall Street's influence cannot be underestimated and I do not believe the market has priced their impact in.

This is BTCitcoin, so anything can happen. Few assets exist out there today where you can experience the range of high's and low's of investing and still come out ahead of the game year after year. Thank you Satoshi.

[michaelhorton]

It is likely that the COIN ETF will launch

That ETF is already priced in. When insiders learn that the ETF won't be approved, they'll start dumping their coins. The price will plummet, and the cultist permabulls will panic sell until BTC settles at 250ish prices. Shortly after that, it'll bounce up to 370 or so.

I disagree.  The ETF is not a certainty.  Also, if the ETF does happen there will be quite a bit a fiat added into the bitcoin market.

[Probability]

There could be a rally with GABI starting trading this fall. They are expecting a $200mil pump into btc exchanges

[counter]

If a stable price will put an end to all the nonsensical bear fud, I'd be all for it but i doubt it would help. and I doubt the price won't rise significantly until next year.

I'm quite surprised at all of the psychics around here. Let me exercise my mysticism while we're at it.

Tell me about it, you would think that some of them that are so wise would be alittle more open minded but no way.

[Bitcopia]

I'm quite surprised at all of the psychics around here. Let me exercise my mysticism while we're at it.

A "mega-spike" in the coming month is incredibly unlikely. These mega-spikes are typically preceded by a relatively calm base followed by a slow ramp up followed by an increasingly exponential ramp. I doubt the price action can just go from "are we in an uptrend or downtrend?" to "OMG I better panic buy at any rate possible!!!" But you never know. Some crazy awesome news might start the rally any time.

On the other hand, a full year of $300 - $600 is rather unlikely as well. There is too much adoption happening. There is too much awareness being spread. It is likely that the COIN ETF will launch opening up access in an entirely new and huge way. There is the GABI fund estimated to start trading on 9/1. Just wait until offshore money starts to realize the potential. I have a feeling that's one of GABI's primary targets, and that's estimated to be a 22 - 31 trillion dollar market.

But you know, my crystal ball may provide different results than yours.

Good comment.  Would you say you are expecting a steady return to $600 - $1000 by the end of this year?

My crystal ball doesn't tell me time frames, only that bitcoin doesn't capitulate for more than a year and doesn't stay "flat" for more than 6 months (until adoption saturation occurs.) Next rally begins on or before February 2015. Outside of the crystal ball, my guess is that it starts a slow and relatively steady incline rather soon. This capitulation has been brutal, and I can't see it continuing much longer in light of all of the new development. I started buying consistently again in April and will continue to do so.

[Wary]

There is some similarity between this July's suppressed rally and November 12 one.



If we are to repeat it, we should expect 4 weeks up, to about 640, then 4 weeks flat and then - rally.
From the other hand, the November 12 rally had more upward momentum: steeper rise, sharp peak and lesser drop aftewards.

tl;dr; Don't know

[TheDragonSlayer]

September rally has been postponed to november. Now lets hope for the best..

[JimboToronto]

We are in for a LONG LONG period of $300-600.. a long period.

$300? We haven't seen $300 since last November. That's like the mythical $30 it was supposed to fall to last summer or the <$1 it was supposed to fall to in late 2011.

Sorry, it aint gonna happen.

The last half year has seen the price pretty steady in the $450-$680 range.

When this changes, it's far more likely to rise toward quadruple digits than to fall as low as $300.

[nuff]

Not sure about a rally or not but going in September onwards, it would be very unlikely that the price will fall below the 500 mark

[romerun]

I wish, but likely more at mid to the end of Oct

[crocko]

How much we must wait until ETF ?

[romerun]

I wish btc to rally slowly to avoid bubble so that no ones has to buy at the top

[Dalmar]

I wish btc to rally slowly to avoid bubble so that no ones has to buy at the top

Bitcoin trading is a game of musical chairs. There always has to be someone who loses for others to make gains.

[wachtwoord]

Whenever the launch date of the ETF is announced or the permission to do so is granted a spike will appear in your graphs (it will probably start a few days early due to people with insider knowledge buying).

[romerun]

Looking at Bitstamp price at 3/5m intervals, it looks like the price is unnaturally pegged at 500, bid / ask sides are almost equal.

[botany]

Whenever the launch date of the ETF is announced or the permission to do so is granted a spike will appear in your graphs (it will probably start a few days early due to people with insider knowledge buying).

The government should clamp down on insider trading in bitcoins as well.