Next boom within 3-4 months tops

[zimmah]

I also believe in the cyclical theory of the price of bitcoin. Let's just hope that everything starts soon. Some had said it had to begin in late July or early August

Normally it would have been July/august but for some reason activity dropped around March and took a while to recover, which got us several months delay.

[cypherdoc]

I study paterns as well, looks bullish to me!

https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Quite insane how difficulty and hash-rate grew in not even one year's time!

Indeed. The beautiful thing, is what you begin to see when you extrapolate those curves outward a bit..



Difficulty, hash-rate, and adoption all look like this.

Price follows sooner or later, it's a mathematical inevitability. Demand is going nowhere but up, while supply becomes more and more scarce (hashing difficulty).

This ain't rocket surgery folks.

this can't be emphasized enough and is one of my main bullish indicators.  price will have to follow as those who were hoping to get into Bitcoin via mining will get diverted in buying Bitcoin outright.  if Bitcoin were failing, that hashrate would be plunging.

[falllling]

Define boom.

$2000+ at least, probably $3000+ at peak

Don't stop there, prolong the graph until 2025 or so!

bitcoin is going to the final capitulation!

[zimmah]

Define boom.

$2000+ at least, probably $3000+ at peak

Don't stop there, prolong the graph until 2025 or so!

One of these graphs has 1,200 data points. The other graph has 1 data point. Which do you think is more useful?

The first one, but it's still very stupid to expect past perfomance to replicate in the future. It's simply impossible to grow indefinitely at 0.59% per day. Unless we have USD hyperinflation, of course.

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

[cypherdoc]

Define boom.

$2000+ at least, probably $3000+ at peak

Don't stop there, prolong the graph until 2025 or so!

One of these graphs has 1,200 data points. The other graph has 1 data point. Which do you think is more useful?

The first one, but it's still very stupid to expect past perfomance to replicate in the future. It's simply impossible to grow indefinitely at 0.59% per day. Unless we have USD hyperinflation, of course.

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

the simpler answer would be to tie the Bitcoin price to the USD monetary base.  that seems to be able to grow infinitely, let alone exponentially.

[asganauei]

I didn't know that bitcoin users were only 4 - 5 millions in the world, we are still few and the potential growth is huge.
Now I understand why someone says we are heading to millions for a btc.

[Timetwister]

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

[cypherdoc]

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

as long as some hardware manufacturers continue to sell miners for fiat, exponential growth is possible.

[Timetwister]

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

as long as some hardware manufacturers continue to sell miners for fiat, exponential growth is possible.

As longs as there BTC exchange where you can easily trade BTC for USD or viceversa, it doesn't matter in what currency manufacturers sell their hardware.

[Beliathon]

As longs as there BTC exchange where you can easily trade BTC for USD or viceversa, it doesn't matter in what currency manufacturers sell their hardware.

Correct.

Recommended reading: http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/
Recommended watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Look at the remittances market, that alone is worth over 500 billion a year. And mark my words, Bitcoin will eat every penny. You know why? Because Western Union and the others are parasites who steal 20-30% of the money they process. 20-30%!! How long until people realize they are needlessly throwing their hard-earned money - and these are POOR people we're talking about here - down the toilet? They will ALL switch to bitcoin, just like EVERYONE stopped using Blockbuster video to pay $5 for one movie rental once Netflix came online. This will happen, because people prefer to have money rather than throw it away.
--> http://www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Iran exports around 200 thousand barrels of oil to China every day. That's $20 million worth of oil being exported every day. The Iranian and Chinese are not idiots. So there is or will emerge at some point a HUGE MARKET DEMAND for being able to transact $20 million of value in cyberspace every day. The volume today traded in Bitcoin is EXTREMELY LOW relative to the potential volume. A tiny fraction of a fraction of it's potential use-cases. Ask yourself how much the bitcoin price would have to rise to make the daily volume $20 billion, for example.

Now look at cash transfers in Africa, look at MPESA, http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/06/cash-transfers-africa
Look at the situation in Argentina. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e__m-w4N7NI

Point is, there's a cornucopia of industries, services, dire situations, and TERRIBLE inflating worthless fiat-scrip currencies just BEGGING to be swallowed up by Bitcoin.

The only question for each of them, is when. Not if, when. As far as I'm concerned $100,000 per bitcoin is a conservative estimate. We will see it before 2020.

[cypherdoc]

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

as long as some hardware manufacturers continue to sell miners for fiat, exponential growth is possible.

As longs as there BTC exchange where you can easily trade BTC for USD or viceversa, it doesn't matter in what currency manufacturers sell their hardware.

true if you're willing to consider multiple step tx's.

but the root argument still stands; the whole Bitcoin edifice, be it mining or the price, is contingent upon the exponentially rising fiat monetary bases of all countries.

[Beliathon]

"But Ready says betting on bitcoin now is a lot like betting on mobile commerce three or four years ago. People shopping on their phones back then was a very small part of the online shopping market. But that percentage has grown, and Braintree was able to ride that wave to its current success."

http://www.wired.com/2014/09/paypals-support-is-the-best-thing-that-could-happen-to-bitcoin/

I'ts happening.

[minerpumpkin]

I'm really really curious about how the current price and performance will be seen in 1 or two years! This could either be just another valley where people would be wise to buy some more cheap coins, or maybe the last chance to cut your losses at least to some extent! I believe it'll be the first possibility, but no one can know that for sure!

[zimmah]

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

actually, the graph ends at oct 2016. No one claimed it would continue indefinitely. Everyone but you seems to understand that it will stop at some point.

but up until the point where it approaches saturation, which could very well be 5+ years from now, it will continue at the same exponential rate.

and yes, i understand how compounding works. I understand it can only go on for several years at the most, but as long as there are still sufficient people in the world who haven't adopted bitcoin yet there is a good chance the growth will continue, and it's pretty likely the value of bitcoin would see an increase of several orders of magnitude before we slow down.

ok, we will probably not grow all the way until 2025, but does it really matter after we hit 5 or 6 digits or more?

[exocytosis]

Look at the remittances market, that alone is worth over 500 billion a year. And mark my words, Bitcoin will eat every penny. You know why? Because Western Union and the others are parasites who steal 20-30% of the money they process. 20-30%!! How long until people realize they are needlessly throwing their hard-earned money - and these are POOR people we're talking about here - down the toilet? They will ALL switch to bitcoin, just like EVERYONE stopped using Blockbuster video to pay $5 for one movie rental once Netflix came online. This will happen, because people prefer to have money rather than throw it away.
--> http://www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Western Union is a superior service to Bitcoin, since WU provides security and user-friendliness. People are willing to pay a lot for those qualities. That's why WU continues making a ton of money, while the Bitcoin pyramid scheme is failing miserably.

Poor people in the developing world won't suddenly attain the tech skills and computer equipment needed to safely acquire, store and sell their bitcoins. Even average Joes in the developed world stay far away from the Bitcoin ponzi scheme, and large Bitcoin bagholders are dumping coins as we speak, a fact obviously reflected in recent price developments.

[Newbie1022]

Look at the remittances market, that alone is worth over 500 billion a year. And mark my words, Bitcoin will eat every penny. You know why? Because Western Union and the others are parasites who steal 20-30% of the money they process. 20-30%!! How long until people realize they are needlessly throwing their hard-earned money - and these are POOR people we're talking about here - down the toilet? They will ALL switch to bitcoin, just like EVERYONE stopped using Blockbuster video to pay $5 for one movie rental once Netflix came online. This will happen, because people prefer to have money rather than throw it away.
--> http://www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Western Union is a superior service to Bitcoin, since WU provides security and user-friendliness. People are willing to pay a lot for those qualities. That's why WU continues making a ton of money, while the Bitcoin pyramid scheme is failing miserably.

Poor people in the developing world won't suddenly attain the tech skills and computer equipment needed to safely acquire, store and sell their bitcoins. Even average Joes in the developed world stay far away from the Bitcoin ponzi scheme, and large Bitcoin bagholders are dumping coins as we speak, a fact obviously reflected in recent price developments.

This. Poor people are going to get f---ed one way or another... and they are kinda used to it by now. A more stable international system of currency... maybe even something with a fixed exchange rate although that takes the fun out of it for us... would be more appropriate. Basically, a fixed value Bitcoin on a lighter, more user friendly platform would fundamentally transform life for the Third World. This is not that. This could be that. Right now it isn't. So let's stop pretending it is.

[inca]

Look at the remittances market, that alone is worth over 500 billion a year. And mark my words, Bitcoin will eat every penny. You know why? Because Western Union and the others are parasites who steal 20-30% of the money they process. 20-30%!! How long until people realize they are needlessly throwing their hard-earned money - and these are POOR people we're talking about here - down the toilet? They will ALL switch to bitcoin, just like EVERYONE stopped using Blockbuster video to pay $5 for one movie rental once Netflix came online. This will happen, because people prefer to have money rather than throw it away.
--> http://www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Western Union is a superior service to Bitcoin, since WU provides security and user-friendliness. People are willing to pay a lot for those qualities. That's why WU continues making a ton of money, while the Bitcoin pyramid scheme is failing miserably.

Poor people in the developing world won't suddenly attain the tech skills and computer equipment needed to safely acquire, store and sell their bitcoins. Even average Joes in the developed world stay far away from the Bitcoin ponzi scheme, and large Bitcoin bagholders are dumping coins as we speak, a fact obviously reflected in recent price developments.

You are obviously intelligent. But the fact you are actually here and posting endless bearish vaguely plausible analysis infers you are actually a bitcoin bull in disguise.

Sold and hope to buy lower or just short? Either way dont bs us with pyramid scheme nonsense please.