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Author Topic: [ANN] SuperNET NXT asset 12071612744977229797, SUPERNET KMD assetchain in summer  (Read 736816 times)
mishax1
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September 14, 2014, 01:27:18 PM
 #2281


so someone is selling tokens/btc cheaper than ico price on BTER Smiley



It might be arbitrage.  They might be buying and selling in BTCD, NXT, and BTC.  They have figured out a small way to beat the system.  The prices of each of these coins are going in different directions, up and down. 

Could just be somebody is scared. 

By they, you mean the operators, the guys that control this IPO. Believe me, if they wanted to disable trades they would done that already. This ipo is fishy.. and weird.

Este Nuno
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September 14, 2014, 01:34:05 PM
 #2282


so someone is selling tokens/btc cheaper than ico price on BTER Smiley



It might be arbitrage.  They might be buying and selling in BTCD, NXT, and BTC.  They have figured out a small way to beat the system.  The prices of each of these coins are going in different directions, up and down.  

Could just be somebody is scared.  

By they, you mean the operators, the guys that control this IPO. Believe me, if they wanted to disable trades they would done that already. This ipo is fishy.. and weird.



No, considering it's already been stated that the IPO will go for 14-28 days depending on demand. What is fishy about that?

And they decided to allow people to sell their TOKEN below the IPO price just in case they had buyers remorse or needed funds for a personal emergency or something. It was actually quite nice of them to allow this, but of course the accusations of foul play never seem to stop.
Cassius
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September 14, 2014, 01:41:51 PM
 #2283


As a coder, he is decent.

You've got to be kidding about this part. Just decent? He's a coding prodigy. I have no clue how he manages to write as much code as he does, a 20 person software company of normal coders would be struggling to keep up with his output. And his software does stuff that most people would consider impossible if they didn't see it in action.

So, the post was just my appraisal.  I am by no means an expert when it comes to coding.  In fact, I don't know anything, so I'll admit that anything I wrote on the topic or am about to write might be off base.  I have heard enough times and have seen from his posts that the amount of code he writes is prolific.  I have heard time and time again that nobody can code as much as he can and I generally believe it.  My appraisal as decent (this isn't bad btw) comes from his own words of constant referring to himself as "Just a C programmer".  If he said he had mastered the top 5 languages, I would be more impressed and move him more into the "prodigy" zone.  He also regularly leaves posts about how he coded something, got it to work but it turned out to be sloppy, so he did it all over again from scratch to make it clean.  That kind of determination and perseverance is the key to success.  Most every time I would prefer to support a decent highly motivated and relentless coder over a really good but lazy and uninterested dev.  

Disclosure: I bought 1/2 bitcoin of Token.

The irony, I think, is to be found in your sig.

I am not sure what the irony is.  I sometimes get lost on meanings in the internet.  I am indeed looking for the next thing.  That is totally congruent with my nature and that is why I am here discussing what very well might be the next big thing.  BTW, I first bought one of Jame's offerings months ago and now have 4 different ones.  When I talk about him, I am genuinely trying to give an honest feel for the guy, both the good and the bad.  Lots of people on here are pumping him to be out of this world, and trolls are screaming scam.  I was trying to give a voice of reason from somebody who has followed him and actually sent messages back and forth with him (under a different name) going back months, long before any of this was ever even thought of.  BTW, he was very good at answering my questions very clearly.  His normal writing often goes over my head, but when I asked clearly for what I was trying to understand, he wrote back very well. 

All duly noted.
The paradigm shift here isn't the standard of coding or the work ethic, though of course these both help immensely. What is qualitatively different (for crypto) is the emphasis on collaboration instead of zero-sum competition. That's the real game changer.
The tech is cool, but that's not what's really exciting. So to me the 'next big thing' is something more fundamental. Basically it's about how we relate to each other, what that enables and the role that money plays in cementing those ends rather than pulling people in opposite directions.
valarmg
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September 14, 2014, 01:50:12 PM
 #2284


So, the post was just my appraisal.  I am by no means an expert when it comes to coding.  In fact, I don't know anything, so I'll admit that anything I wrote on the topic or am about to write might be off base.  I have heard enough times and have seen from his posts that the amount of code he writes is prolific.  I have heard time and time again that nobody can code as much as he can and I generally believe it.  My appraisal as decent (this isn't bad btw) comes from his own words of constant referring to himself as "Just a C programmer".  If he said he had mastered the top 5 languages, I would be more impressed and move him more into the "prodigy" zone.  He also regularly leaves posts about how he coded something, got it to work but it turned out to be sloppy, so he did it all over again from scratch to make it clean.  That kind of determination and perseverance is the key to success.  Most every time I would prefer to support a decent highly motivated and relentless coder over a really good but lazy and uninterested dev.  

Disclosure: I bought 1/2 bitcoin of Token.

He kind of makes jokes where he'll code something that should take weeks in a single day, then say it was sloppy and he had to spend the morning rewriting it, and claim that he can't be blamed for not getting it right the first time because he's just a simple C programmer. Meanwhile, he's done a months work in a day and a half.
SomethingElse
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September 14, 2014, 01:51:59 PM
 #2285


As a coder, he is decent.

You've got to be kidding about this part. Just decent? He's a coding prodigy. I have no clue how he manages to write as much code as he does, a 20 person software company of normal coders would be struggling to keep up with his output. And his software does stuff that most people would consider impossible if they didn't see it in action.

So, the post was just my appraisal.  I am by no means an expert when it comes to coding.  In fact, I don't know anything, so I'll admit that anything I wrote on the topic or am about to write might be off base.  I have heard enough times and have seen from his posts that the amount of code he writes is prolific.  I have heard time and time again that nobody can code as much as he can and I generally believe it.  My appraisal as decent (this isn't bad btw) comes from his own words of constant referring to himself as "Just a C programmer".  If he said he had mastered the top 5 languages, I would be more impressed and move him more into the "prodigy" zone.  He also regularly leaves posts about how he coded something, got it to work but it turned out to be sloppy, so he did it all over again from scratch to make it clean.  That kind of determination and perseverance is the key to success.  Most every time I would prefer to support a decent highly motivated and relentless coder over a really good but lazy and uninterested dev.  

Disclosure: I bought 1/2 bitcoin of Token.

The irony, I think, is to be found in your sig.

I am not sure what the irony is.  I sometimes get lost on meanings in the internet.  I am indeed looking for the next thing.  That is totally congruent with my nature and that is why I am here discussing what very well might be the next big thing.  BTW, I first bought one of Jame's offerings months ago and now have 4 different ones.  When I talk about him, I am genuinely trying to give an honest feel for the guy, both the good and the bad.  Lots of people on here are pumping him to be out of this world, and trolls are screaming scam.  I was trying to give a voice of reason from somebody who has followed him and actually sent messages back and forth with him (under a different name) going back months, long before any of this was ever even thought of.  BTW, he was very good at answering my questions very clearly.  His normal writing often goes over my head, but when I asked clearly for what I was trying to understand, he wrote back very well. 

All duly noted.
The paradigm shift here isn't the standard of coding or the work ethic, though of course these both help immensely. What is qualitatively different (for crypto) is the emphasis on collaboration instead of zero-sum competition. That's the real game changer.
The tech is cool, but that's not what's really exciting. So to me the 'next big thing' is something more fundamental. Basically it's about how we relate to each other, what that enables and the role that money plays in cementing those ends rather than pulling people in opposite directions.

It is a very exciting time to be around and watching this come together. 

NEM
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September 14, 2014, 02:18:42 PM
 #2286

I think from the 13 & 14 days until the ICO ends, the system should not allow people to sell back their TOKENs to avoid arbitrage tactics that may cause messy situations and accusations.
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September 14, 2014, 03:41:15 PM
 #2287

I think from the 13 & 14 days until the ICO ends, the system should not allow people to sell back their TOKENs to avoid arbitrage tactics that may cause messy situations and accusations.

I'm curious what you think is wrong with arbitrage on TOKEN?  For example, the price of TOKEN to BTC is guaranteed to increase for 14 days, so some people may buy TOKEN early and then sell a few days later at a very small profit margin.  If the market is willing to pay the price that these flippers are offering, how is this bad?

In general, I see nothing wrong with some people trying to make money by capitalizing on the demand of TOKEN.  However, if someone sees a valid reason to put a stop to this, I'd like to hear it.
Graffenwalder
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September 14, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
 #2288

I think from the 13 & 14 days until the ICO ends, the system should not allow people to sell back their TOKENs to avoid arbitrage tactics that may cause messy situations and accusations.

I'm curious what you think is wrong with arbitrage on TOKEN?  For example, the price of TOKEN to BTC is guaranteed to increase for 14 days, so some people may buy TOKEN early and then sell a few days later at a very small profit margin.  If the market is willing to pay the price that these flippers are offering, how is this bad?

In general, I see nothing wrong with some people trying to make money by capitalizing on the demand of TOKEN.  However, if someone sees a valid reason to put a stop to this, I'd like to hear it.

I think bter is off,1 BTC worth of NXT, is worth 100.2 token when sold on NXT/TOKEN market.
But ICO price is 1.08+ BTC so this difference is more than 5%.
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September 14, 2014, 03:57:25 PM
 #2289

Still there is something I quite don't understand, how do I get access to this Supernetwork access to fly my UNITY spaceship?

How do I get access to the Supernetwork control panel? I mean how do I see BTCD and Boolberry is in supernetwork, I only know they are in supernetwork because James say so and I believe him but how can I see with my own eyes?

Long Live James!

⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲     WIRELESS COIN     ⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⏲  FORUM THREADGITHUBTWITTERSLACK 1 #time-travellers-yet/#wlcSLACK 2 #21_tickets/#wlc  ⏲
valarmg
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September 14, 2014, 04:14:55 PM
 #2290

Still there is something I quite don't understand, how do I get access to this Supernetwork access to fly my UNITY spaceship?

How do I get access to the Supernetwork control panel? I mean how do I see BTCD and Boolberry is in supernetwork, I only know they are in supernetwork because James say so and I believe him but how can I see with my own eyes?

Long Live James!

From inside your BTCD wallet, you'll be able to click a 'Enter Supernet' button and that'll open a GUI will access to supernet features.
CECVW
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September 14, 2014, 05:05:54 PM
 #2291

I am following James everywhere to see what he does as I am his number 1 fan.

Now I see James advise the following, Atomic, but nobody knows quite well what its as its a new project and my guts tell me Atomic will be part of supernetwork when its finished.

So if you buy 10 nxtventure you get 1 atomic, but what is nxtventure I can not see in coinmarketcap and I can not see any bitcointalk thread talking about nxtventure..

Please see the link below to understand what I am trying to say

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=780833.msg8818065#msg8818065

Long Live James!

⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲     WIRELESS COIN     ⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⏲  FORUM THREADGITHUBTWITTERSLACK 1 #time-travellers-yet/#wlcSLACK 2 #21_tickets/#wlc  ⏲
ASICHEAD
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September 14, 2014, 05:06:29 PM
 #2292

Suit yourself ostrich

And BTCD is just another crap useless gen1 coin that is pretending to be something else : "oh look it will be a mediator between nxt and alts in the superjoke network !"

mLOL


The BTCD wallet and NXT asset exchange are two of the most innovative things I have ever used.

Just because you missed the boat, don't understand them, don't have a clue what the Supernet is actually doing, and are probably a hired hand who makes chump-change and definitely doesn't know how to punctuate, you shouldn't knock a group of people who are pioneering crypto beyond its current limits; with plenty of code to prove it. It's clearly not beneath you to do so, but you probably couldn't find your floor if your life depended on it (though it's pretty clear to the rest of us where it is).

While you "blow wind," Supernet is already making acquisitions, including a large percentage of the "Fiver" of crypto and one of the best "Freelance" crypto sites on the net. There's new, verifiable news EVERYDAY, verified/legitimate escrow services involved in the giant amount raised, and I have a strong feeling your coins and assets aren't nearly as powerful, communicative, ballsy or profitable.

If you had any balls at all, you'd put your money where your mouth is and take James up on his generous bet offer. You likely can't afford to, however.

If you aren't a hired hand, you sadly didn't read far back enough through the GIANT tome of fully community-verified information readily available to even know what I am talking about.

Feel free to keep making a total fool of yourself. Wink

+1

How is the BTCD wallet innovative ? it's just a friggin' basic qt with promises Roll Eyes
Nxt asset exchange is innovative yes.

I don't say that James has wrong ideas, but rather that he has too many, he's flooding and diluting crypto money with his countless assets just based on promises at indecent prices while nothing is done yet.


Did you have received an invitation for investing in SuperNET or BTCD ?
You are doing a repetitive  pointless discussions . If this is your impression of super NET and BTCD , please leave this page.


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CECVW
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September 14, 2014, 05:14:48 PM
 #2293

Suit yourself ostrich

And BTCD is just another crap useless gen1 coin that is pretending to be something else : "oh look it will be a mediator between nxt and alts in the superjoke network !"

mLOL


The BTCD wallet and NXT asset exchange are two of the most innovative things I have ever used.

Just because you missed the boat, don't understand them, don't have a clue what the Supernet is actually doing, and are probably a hired hand who makes chump-change and definitely doesn't know how to punctuate, you shouldn't knock a group of people who are pioneering crypto beyond its current limits; with plenty of code to prove it. It's clearly not beneath you to do so, but you probably couldn't find your floor if your life depended on it (though it's pretty clear to the rest of us where it is).

While you "blow wind," Supernet is already making acquisitions, including a large percentage of the "Fiver" of crypto and one of the best "Freelance" crypto sites on the net. There's new, verifiable news EVERYDAY, verified/legitimate escrow services involved in the giant amount raised, and I have a strong feeling your coins and assets aren't nearly as powerful, communicative, ballsy or profitable.

If you had any balls at all, you'd put your money where your mouth is and take James up on his generous bet offer. You likely can't afford to, however.

If you aren't a hired hand, you sadly didn't read far back enough through the GIANT tome of fully community-verified information readily available to even know what I am talking about.

Feel free to keep making a total fool of yourself. Wink

+1

How is the BTCD wallet innovative ? it's just a friggin' basic qt with promises Roll Eyes
Nxt asset exchange is innovative yes.

I don't say that James has wrong ideas, but rather that he has too many, he's flooding and diluting crypto money with his countless assets just based on promises at indecent prices while nothing is done yet.


Did you have received an invitation for investing in SuperNET or BTCD ?
You are doing a repetitive  pointless discussions . If this is your impression of super NET and BTCD , please leave this page.



I am working on a project, I am building a spaceship where I can put in all the undesirable trolls and send them into the deep space towards a blackhole and lose these idiots forever!

Long Live James!

⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲     WIRELESS COIN     ⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⏲  FORUM THREADGITHUBTWITTERSLACK 1 #time-travellers-yet/#wlcSLACK 2 #21_tickets/#wlc  ⏲
hilgi
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September 14, 2014, 05:20:48 PM
 #2294

Just picked up a few more TOKENS at a 10% discount, thanks FUDsters!
CECVW
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September 14, 2014, 05:24:37 PM
 #2295

Suit yourself ostrich

And BTCD is just another crap useless gen1 coin that is pretending to be something else : "oh look it will be a mediator between nxt and alts in the superjoke network !"

mLOL


The BTCD wallet and NXT asset exchange are two of the most innovative things I have ever used.

Just because you missed the boat, don't understand them, don't have a clue what the Supernet is actually doing, and are probably a hired hand who makes chump-change and definitely doesn't know how to punctuate, you shouldn't knock a group of people who are pioneering crypto beyond its current limits; with plenty of code to prove it. It's clearly not beneath you to do so, but you probably couldn't find your floor if your life depended on it (though it's pretty clear to the rest of us where it is).

While you "blow wind," Supernet is already making acquisitions, including a large percentage of the "Fiver" of crypto and one of the best "Freelance" crypto sites on the net. There's new, verifiable news EVERYDAY, verified/legitimate escrow services involved in the giant amount raised, and I have a strong feeling your coins and assets aren't nearly as powerful, communicative, ballsy or profitable.

If you had any balls at all, you'd put your money where your mouth is and take James up on his generous bet offer. You likely can't afford to, however.

If you aren't a hired hand, you sadly didn't read far back enough through the GIANT tome of fully community-verified information readily available to even know what I am talking about.

Feel free to keep making a total fool of yourself. Wink

+1

How is the BTCD wallet innovative ? it's just a friggin' basic qt with promises Roll Eyes
Nxt asset exchange is innovative yes.

I don't say that James has wrong ideas, but rather that he has too many, he's flooding and diluting crypto money with his countless assets just based on promises at indecent prices while nothing is done yet.


Did you have received an invitation for investing in SuperNET or BTCD ?
You are doing a repetitive  pointless discussions . If this is your impression of super NET and BTCD , please leave this page.



I am working on a project, I am building a spaceship where I can put in all the undesirable trolls and send them into the deep space towards a blackhole and lose these idiots forever!

Long Live James!


Working on this project don't come cheap and building this spaceship to send all these troll into a black hole will cost me money, I will appreciate a donation for me to accomplish this huge project.

I leave my BTC address below:

1NmpMQc2avLi6RP8NZcLbE7VBVCKwAPkiU

Any amount will be highly appreciate, thanks in advance!

Long Live James!

⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲     WIRELESS COIN     ⏲⏳⏲⏳⏲
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⏲  FORUM THREADGITHUBTWITTERSLACK 1 #time-travellers-yet/#wlcSLACK 2 #21_tickets/#wlc  ⏲
rajc
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September 14, 2014, 05:34:32 PM
 #2296

I am following James everywhere to see what he does as I am his number 1 fan.

Now I see James advise the following, Atomic, but nobody knows quite well what its as its a new project and my guts tell me Atomic will be part of supernetwork when its finished.

So if you buy 10 nxtventure you get 1 atomic, but what is nxtventure I can not see in coinmarketcap and I can not see any bitcointalk thread talking about nxtventure..

Please see the link below to understand what I am trying to say

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=780833.msg8818065#msg8818065

Long Live James!

check:
https://nxtforum.org/nxtventures/nxtventure-the-way-for-the-most-promising-enterprises-to-get-ae-listing/
http://www.nxtreporting.com/?as=16212446818542881180
CECVW
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September 14, 2014, 05:42:37 PM
 #2297

I am following James everywhere to see what he does as I am his number 1 fan.

Now I see James advise the following, Atomic, but nobody knows quite well what its as its a new project and my guts tell me Atomic will be part of supernetwork when its finished.

So if you buy 10 nxtventure you get 1 atomic, but what is nxtventure I can not see in coinmarketcap and I can not see any bitcointalk thread talking about nxtventure..

Please see the link below to understand what I am trying to say

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=780833.msg8818065#msg8818065

Long Live James!

check:
https://nxtforum.org/nxtventures/nxtventure-the-way-for-the-most-promising-enterprises-to-get-ae-listing/
http://www.nxtreporting.com/?as=16212446818542881180

Thanks Smiley

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AkaBa
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September 14, 2014, 05:45:07 PM
 #2298

Suit yourself ostrich

And BTCD is just another crap useless gen1 coin that is pretending to be something else : "oh look it will be a mediator between nxt and alts in the superjoke network !"

mLOL


The BTCD wallet and NXT asset exchange are two of the most innovative things I have ever used.

Just because you missed the boat, don't understand them, don't have a clue what the Supernet is actually doing, and are probably a hired hand who makes chump-change and definitely doesn't know how to punctuate, you shouldn't knock a group of people who are pioneering crypto beyond its current limits; with plenty of code to prove it. It's clearly not beneath you to do so, but you probably couldn't find your floor if your life depended on it (though it's pretty clear to the rest of us where it is).

While you "blow wind," Supernet is already making acquisitions, including a large percentage of the "Fiver" of crypto and one of the best "Freelance" crypto sites on the net. There's new, verifiable news EVERYDAY, verified/legitimate escrow services involved in the giant amount raised, and I have a strong feeling your coins and assets aren't nearly as powerful, communicative, ballsy or profitable.

If you had any balls at all, you'd put your money where your mouth is and take James up on his generous bet offer. You likely can't afford to, however.

If you aren't a hired hand, you sadly didn't read far back enough through the GIANT tome of fully community-verified information readily available to even know what I am talking about.

Feel free to keep making a total fool of yourself. Wink

+1

How is the BTCD wallet innovative ? it's just a friggin' basic qt with promises Roll Eyes
Nxt asset exchange is innovative yes.

I don't say that James has wrong ideas, but rather that he has too many, he's flooding and diluting crypto money with his countless assets just based on promises at indecent prices while nothing is done yet.


Did you have received an invitation for investing in SuperNET or BTCD ?
You are doing a repetitive  pointless discussions . If this is your impression of super NET and BTCD , please leave this page.



I am working on a project, I am building a spaceship where I can put in all the undesirable trolls and send them into the deep space towards a blackhole and lose these idiots forever!

Long Live James!


Working on this project don't come cheap and building this spaceship to send all these troll into a black hole will cost me money, I will appreciate a donation for me to accomplish this huge project.

I leave my BTC address below:

1NmpMQc2avLi6RP8NZcLbE7VBVCKwAPkiU

Any amount will be highly appreciate, thanks in advance!

Long Live James!


kk had to sign up just to reply you - so funny - a boring weekend in bct... you made my day !!! hilarious !!!
Long live James !!!
Nxtblg
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September 14, 2014, 06:29:50 PM
 #2299

I have to say, this entire thread is fascinating - and very educational. It's educational about one of the great mysteries of all investment markets: why, when the bottom of a bear market comes, do so few people step up to the plate and buy assets that (in hindsight) are screaming bargains? Why did so few people put money into bonds in 1981? Why so few in stocks in 1982? Why so few early adopters when the tide turns from long-term bear to long-term bull - even when the plain numbers make it close to obvious that it's the time to buy?

Thanks to this thread, I've got the answer that eluded me. In this sense alone, altcoin land is profoundly educational for any regular investor! It gives real-time evidence of how people behave at turns in the tide - at crypto speed! I've seen so many bubbles here, I've got a "database" that I couldn't get in the regular asset markets unless I had lived as long as Methuselah - and I've been here for less than a year!

And thanks -  in an abstract way - to the aggressive FUDing with respect to Supernet, I can now put teeth to why so few people put their money in at the beginning of a long-term bull market: investing when they should, really. To see what I mean, please go through this long-after-the-fact fable I reconstructed from the data. It's guaranteed to be 100% fabricated. Smiley

Anyhoo:

----------

Imagine, if you will, that you're a Canadian and it's 1981. The Government of Canada is offering Canada Savings Bonds to the general public, through the big banks as per usual. You stop into the bank, curious about 1981's rate, and your jaw drops when you find out the answer. For the first year, Canada Savings Bonds will pay a guaranteed 19.5%!

You're a man of some means; by street-level standards, you're reasonably sophisticated in financial matters. You know about double-digit inflation. But you also know that in 1981 so far, Canada's inflation rate has only veered between 12 and 13%. Going easy on your mental-math module, you split the difference and subtract 12.5% from 19.5%. And wind up with a full seven percent above inflation. You're old enough to remember the days when a 7% nominal rate was considered usurious - and here's the Government of Canada offering seven percent above inflation for a year!

Since you're a reasonably sophisticated chap, you remember that - unlike Canada Savings Bonds - the Government of Canada offers straight bonds with a fixed coupon over the life of the bond. So, you get on the phone to your stockbroker and ask about them. "What kind of deals you got on long-term government bonds right now?"

You're disappointed to learn that you can only get about sixteen percent: seventeen if you settle for the shorter end of the long curve. That's a far cry from the seven percent real return that's burned in your mind's eye, but life is like that. Only a decent bargain, but it'll give you sixteen or so over the entire life of the bond. Four of one, a four-pack of the other. So, with the inevitable sigh, you order a nice haunch for your portfolio.

But your broker starts responding in a way that makes you wonder if the world has turned upside-down. He started off cautioning you, but you didn't pay attention because that's what the securities regulations and the brokerage house's compliance department make him do. You figured it was the standard boilerplate, so you only half-listened because you've already made up your mind.

Now you're listening fully - to the rare sound of a commission-paid stockbroker trying to wiggle out of earning a commission! Now wondering if some hippie-type mailboy slipped some LSD into the brokers' coffee machine, you find yourself actually selling the buy to your broker instead of your broker selling you! You're not in the least offended; you and him go back a long way, so you're surprised instead of irked. Finally, the broker accepts your sales pitch, puts through the buy, verbally confirms it to you, and promises that written confirmation will be sent to you soon - all the while sounding like he was preparing a eulogy.

When you hang up the phone after a few pleasantries that sound hollow, you're really baffled. Your broker was like a sick dog that tried to run away from a juicy piece of barbecued steak put in its bowl. So, at the end of your day, you go down to your favourite watering hole where people like you hang out. Reasonably sophisticated people of means.

After you tell the usual crew what you've done, you understand why the broker had been so oddly reluctant...

"Are you serious? Lord, it sounds like one of those UFOs flew by and froze your brain! Don't you know that modern democracy cannot work without rising inflation? As long as our leaders answer to the usual suspects on election day, they have to order up more inflation because it's the only way they can pay the bill."

"Whatever gave you that idea?... "Oh, the CSB campaign? Well, why didn't it occur to you that there's a good reason why the Government of Canada has to hold out the begging bowl by offering nineteen and a half?"

"Lord, man, everyone knows that 'bonds are certificates of guaranteed confiscation'. Mark my words: come 1985, you'll have much cause to reflect over your folly of 1981."

"Oh, I know what put you up to it. You heard a lot of good things about that American fellow, Paul Volcker. I have to say that the fellow has shown a lot of grit, which does make him an admirable figure. But simple political sense will tell you that once the American lunchbucket get really hurt, he'll yell at his Congressman and Mr. Volcker will be put out to pasture by that new boy Ronald Reagan. I can't see why you don't grasp this: that Reagan has the perfect excuse because Mr. Volcker was appointed by the same President Carter that Mr. Reagan rubbished so successfully. Once Mr. Volker hurts the Republicans' chances, it'll be as easy as anything to effectively fire him. And then, President Reagan will put in a compliant successor just like President Nixon did. And five years hence, inflation will be well over that nineteen and a half percent of yours. I can understand buying Canada Savings bonds, as the rate will be adjusted upwards once Mr. Volcker suffers the fate of leaders who were too brave for their time, but I can't understand why you'd be drawing to the inside straight by buying long-term fixed coupons."

"Good God, man, had I not known you I would have been completely sure that you had just arrived in a Greyhound from some hick town! How have you managed to forget the last ten years?"

And these are the politer responses!

As you go home to a boozy night's sleep, you ruminate on an even more baffling mystery. You made your buy solely on the grounds that the raw numbers look good. The politer criticisms show sophistication, but they all rest on forecasting: they don't speak to the numbers that you saw. More to the point, they all rely on a re-run kind of forecasting: your chums seem absolutely immune to the alternate possibility that the 1980s will not be a replay of the 1970s. In fact, as you dive further into your ruminating, they sound an awful lot like those self-assured folks who in 1971 assumed that the 1970s would be a replay of the prosperity-drenched 1960s.

Of course, you're a regular at that water hole and you know you'll be back. You were aught but the Idiot Of The Day; the chummy crew will move on to something more current. A few of the wags will use you as a running gag for a while, but they'll just confine it to ribbing and boozy jocularity. And even they'll get tired of the running gag and drop it when something more fun comes along.

----------

Fast forward to 1985 and 1986. You find yourself in the odd position of being treated with a respect and even deference in your usual watering hole. As you expected as you had drifted off in your Scotch-aided sleep back in '81, you were ribbed for a while but it basically died off as 1981 turned into 1982. Sure, in 1981 there were whispers about you delivered to the respective listeners with merry eyes. All of this, you took in stride.

What unsettled you was how your status changed as 1982 unfolded. Truth be told, you had unassumedly assumed that 1982's inflation rate would be the same as 1981's. You would have gotten a decent return, but nothing more than that. In all honesty, the plummet of the inflation rate and a corresponding huge bull market in bonds didn't gratify you. It made you uneasy, as did the whispers that you saw about you when you entered the good old watering hole. Their eyes no longer merry, the people whispering about you look stonkered. And you're beginning to get real praise as some kind of minor investing genius - which also makes you uneasy.

God's own truth be told, you were nothing more than a humble numbers man who bought in 1981 solely because the numbers made sense. As for the substantial capital gain you're sitting on, as for collecting a rate that everyone would kill for in '86, you know very well that you were just in the right place at the right time. No-one, including you, foresaw that Ronald Reagan would be so surprisingly loyal to his Carter man Paul Volcker. As everyone expected, Volcker was the Number One Foe Of Labour And Small Business in 1982's depressed economy. But no-one expected President Reagan to more-or-less punt on his party's chances in the 1982 congressional elections by standing steadfast with his Carter man. Since you have very good reason to remember 1981, you still remember Mr. Volcker being thought of as an intrepid fool. So the recent praise of him and President Reagan himself as inflation-besting heroes leave you bemused.

But you're in no way bemused when, in your own little way, you're introduced as some kind of inspired investing genius. You have good reason to remain uneasy. Six months after your were the Idiot of the Day, one of the wags - who was a very shrewd early buyer of gold stocks starting in 1971 - sadly had to sell his beloved family cottage to meet his margin debts. He had bet heavily that inflation would come back in 1982, and your unexpected good fortune had been his shocking misery. When you heard of his sale, your heart broke right in two. For a time, you matched him drink for drink; one night, you had even matched him tear for tear. It was an awful time - a time you'll never forget so long as you live, even though your misery-struck friend did bounce back later.

Yes, the simple truth is that you're nothing more than a humble numbers man who bought when the numbers told him to. That's precisely why, when you're introduced as some kind of inspired bond maven, you not only get uneasy but also get a little bit nervous. You know very well how easy it is to waste a real fortune solely through getting self-assured and cocky... 

----------

As you might have guessed, the excitement over Supernet has given me the humble opinion that James has had a hand in bringing the current altcoin bear market to an end. Frankly, as the rise in Dogecoin has shown, we were due for a turnaround anyway - but James (and the Monero pumpers, believe it or not) have had a hand in it too. Bear markets don't turn into bull markets automatically; we have to decide for ourselves that the dark is the kind that precedes the dawn. And seeing people boldly step up to the plate when all around is gloom does influence us.

That said, this last part is only my humble opinion. Like so many bottom-pickers, I may well be too early. Ye hast been warned...






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CECVW
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September 14, 2014, 07:44:29 PM
 #2300

I have to say, this entire thread is fascinating - and very educational. It's educational about one of the great mysteries of all investment markets: why, when the bottom of a bear market comes, do so few people step up to the plate and buy assets that (in hindsight) are screaming bargains? Why did so few people put money into bonds in 1981? Why so few in stocks in 1982? Why so few early adopters when the tide turns from long-term bear to long-term bull - even when the plain numbers make it close to obvious that it's the time to buy?

Thanks to this thread, I've got the answer that eluded me. In this sense alone, altcoin land is profoundly educational for any regular investor! It gives real-time evidence of how people behave at turns in the tide - at crypto speed! I've seen so many bubbles here, I've got a "database" that I couldn't get in the regular asset markets unless I had lived as long as Methuselah - and I've been here for less than a year!

And thanks -  in an abstract way - to the aggressive FUDing with respect to Supernet, I can now put teeth to why so few people put their money in at the beginning of a long-term bull market: investing when they should, really. To see what I mean, please go through this long-after-the-fact fable I reconstructed from the data. It's guaranteed to be 100% fabricated. Smiley

Anyhoo:

----------

Imagine, if you will, that you're a Canadian and it's 1981. The Government of Canada is offering Canada Savings Bonds to the general public, through the big banks as per usual. You stop into the bank, curious about 1981's rate, and your jaw drops when you find out the answer. For the first year, Canada Savings Bonds will pay a guaranteed 19.5%!

You're a man of some means; by street-level standards, you're reasonably sophisticated in financial matters. You know about double-digit inflation. But you also know that in 1981 so far, Canada's inflation rate has only veered between 12 and 13%. Going easy on your mental-math module, you split the difference and subtract 12.5% from 19.5%. And wind up with a full seven percent above inflation. You're old enough to remember the days when a 7% nominal rate was considered usurious - and here's the Government of Canada offering seven percent above inflation for a year!

Since you're a reasonably sophisticated chap, you remember that - unlike Canada Savings Bonds - the Government of Canada offers straight bonds with a fixed coupon over the life of the bond. So, you get on the phone to your stockbroker and ask about them. "What kind of deals you got on long-term government bonds right now?"

You're disappointed to learn that you can only get about sixteen percent: seventeen if you settle for the shorter end of the long curve. That's a far cry from the seven percent real return that's burned in your mind's eye, but life is like that. Only a decent bargain, but it'll give you sixteen or so over the entire life of the bond. Four of one, a four-pack of the other. So, with the inevitable sigh, you order a nice haunch for your portfolio.

But your broker starts responding in a way that makes you wonder if the world has turned upside-down. He started off cautioning you, but you didn't pay attention because that's what the securities regulations and the brokerage house's compliance department make him do. You figured it was the standard boilerplate, so you only half-listened because you've already made up your mind.

Now you're listening fully - to the rare sound of a commission-paid stockbroker trying to wiggle out of earning a commission! Now wondering if some hippie-type mailboy slipped some LSD into the brokers' coffee machine, you find yourself actually selling the buy to your broker instead of your broker selling you! You're not in the least offended; you and him go back a long way, so you're surprised instead of irked. Finally, the broker accepts your sales pitch, puts through the buy, verbally confirms it to you, and promises that written confirmation will be sent to you soon - all the while sounding like he was preparing a eulogy.

When you hang up the phone after a few pleasantries that sound hollow, you're really baffled. Your broker was like a sick dog that tried to run away from a juicy piece of barbecued steak put in its bowl. So, at the end of your day, you go down to your favourite watering hole where people like you hang out. Reasonably sophisticated people of means.

After you tell the usual crew what you've done, you understand why the broker had been so oddly reluctant...

"Are you serious? Lord, it sounds like one of those UFOs flew by and froze your brain! Don't you know that modern democracy cannot work without rising inflation? As long as our leaders answer to the usual suspects on election day, they have to order up more inflation because it's the only way they can pay the bill."

"Whatever gave you that idea?... "Oh, the CSB campaign? Well, why didn't it occur to you that there's a good reason why the Government of Canada has to hold out the begging bowl by offering nineteen and a half?"

"Lord, man, everyone knows that 'bonds are certificates of guaranteed confiscation'. Mark my words: come 1985, you'll have much cause to reflect over your folly of 1981."

"Oh, I know what put you up to it. You heard a lot of good things about that American fellow, Paul Volcker. I have to say that the fellow has shown a lot of grit, which does make him an admirable figure. But simple political sense will tell you that once the American lunchbucket get really hurt, he'll yell at his Congressman and Mr. Volcker will be put out to pasture by that new boy Ronald Reagan. I can't see why you don't grasp this: that Reagan has the perfect excuse because Mr. Volcker was appointed by the same President Carter that Mr. Reagan rubbished so successfully. Once Mr. Volker hurts the Republicans' chances, it'll be as easy as anything to effectively fire him. And then, President Reagan will put in a compliant successor just like President Nixon did. And five years hence, inflation will be well over that nineteen and a half percent of yours. I can understand buying Canada Savings bonds, as the rate will be adjusted upwards once Mr. Volcker suffers the fate of leaders who were too brave for their time, but I can't understand why you'd be drawing to the inside straight by buying long-term fixed coupons."

"Good God, man, had I not known you I would have been completely sure that you had just arrived in a Greyhound from some hick town! How have you managed to forget the last ten years?"

And these are the politer responses!

As you go home to a boozy night's sleep, you ruminate on an even more baffling mystery. You made your buy solely on the grounds that the raw numbers look good. The politer criticisms show sophistication, but they all rest on forecasting: they don't speak to the numbers that you saw. More to the point, they all rely on a re-run kind of forecasting: your chums seem absolutely immune to the alternate possibility that the 1980s will not be a replay of the 1970s. In fact, as you dive further into your ruminating, they sound an awful lot like those self-assured folks who in 1971 assumed that the 1970s would be a replay of the prosperity-drenched 1960s.

Of course, you're a regular at that water hole and you know you'll be back. You were aught but the Idiot Of The Day; the chummy crew will move on to something more current. A few of the wags will use you as a running gag for a while, but they'll just confine it to ribbing and boozy jocularity. And even they'll get tired of the running gag and drop it when something more fun comes along.

----------

Fast forward to 1985 and 1986. You find yourself in the odd position of being treated with a respect and even deference in your usual watering hole. As you expected as you had drifted off in your Scotch-aided sleep back in '81, you were ribbed for a while but it basically died off as 1981 turned into 1982. Sure, in 1981 there were whispers about you delivered to the respective listeners with merry eyes. All of this, you took in stride.

What unsettled you was how your status changed as 1982 unfolded. Truth be told, you had unassumedly assumed that 1982's inflation rate would be the same as 1981's. You would have gotten a decent return, but nothing more than that. In all honesty, the plummet of the inflation rate and a corresponding huge bull market in bonds didn't gratify you. It made you uneasy, as did the whispers that you saw about you when you entered the good old watering hole. Their eyes no longer merry, the people whispering about you look stonkered. And you're beginning to get real praise as some kind of minor investing genius - which also makes you uneasy.

God's own truth be told, you were nothing more than a humble numbers man who bought in 1981 solely because the numbers made sense. As for the substantial capital gain you're sitting on, as for collecting a rate that everyone would kill for in '86, you know very well that you were just in the right place at the right time. No-one, including you, foresaw that Ronald Reagan would be so surprisingly loyal to his Carter man Paul Volcker. As everyone expected, Volcker was the Number One Foe Of Labour And Small Business in 1982's depressed economy. But no-one expected President Reagan to more-or-less punt on his party's chances in the 1982 congressional elections by standing steadfast with his Carter man. Since you have very good reason to remember 1981, you still remember Mr. Volcker being thought of as an intrepid fool. So the recent praise of him and President Reagan himself as inflation-besting heroes leave you bemused.

But you're in no way bemused when, in your own little way, you're introduced as some kind of inspired investing genius. You have good reason to remain uneasy. Six months after your were the Idiot of the Day, one of the wags - who was a very shrewd early buyer of gold stocks starting in 1971 - sadly had to sell his beloved family cottage to meet his margin debts. He had bet heavily that inflation would come back in 1982, and your unexpected good fortune had been his shocking misery. When you heard of his sale, your heart broke right in two. For a time, you matched him drink for drink; one night, you had even matched him tear for tear. It was an awful time - a time you'll never forget so long as you live, even though your misery-struck friend did bounce back later.

Yes, the simple truth is that you're nothing more than a humble numbers man who bought when the numbers told him to. That's precisely why, when you're introduced as some kind of inspired bond maven, you not only get uneasy but also get a little bit nervous. You know very well how easy it is to waste a real fortune solely through getting self-assured and cocky...  

----------

As you might have guessed, the excitement over Supernet has given me the humble opinion that James has had a hand in bringing the current altcoin bear market to an end. Frankly, as the rise in Dogecoin has shown, we were due for a turnaround anyway - but James (and the Monero pumpers, believe it or not) have had a hand in it too. Bear markets don't turn into bull markets automatically; we have to decide for ourselves that the dark is the kind that precedes the dawn. And seeing people boldly step up to the plate when all around is gloom does influence us.

That said, this last part is only my humble opinion. Like so many bottom-pickers, I may well be too early. Ye hast been warned...

Too many letters to read, I can't be bother....Ye hast been warned you will be the first troll to embark my spaceship.

Long Live James!

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