Btc-e past 24hr trade volume: 40,000btc
btc-e normal 24hr trade volume: ~4000 btc
Therefore, estimated extra volume: 40,000 - 4000 = 36,000btc extra traded
If we assume this was 2 malfunctioning bots, and with a trade fee of 0.2%, this would mean the wallet balance of the bot would only needed to contain 0.2% (1/500th) of the extra 36,000btc traded.
36,000 x 0.2% = 72btc
So from this calculation, if the malfunctioning bot theory is true then someone has just lost about 72btc... Although, I'm not to sure about that. Would it really have continued for over a day?
Another theory/possibility is that this trading was intentional, perhaps by a big whale trying to cause panic and a price crash before buying back in at lower price. Although, for this be profitable you would have to first recoup the 72btc I calculated above.
So.... 72btc x $500 = $36,000 . Let's assume $36,000 was lost in fees to btc-e
As the price has only fallen $20 (4%), down to $480 since the "attack" started, this trader/manipulator would have to buy at least 1875btc ($900,000) worth of bitcoin to just marginally benefit from the new lower price he created, and to buy this quantity he would push the price right back up to above $500.
Maybe they thought there actions would have a much stronger impact on the market price?? Or, maybe I'm completely wrong!
Nice theories! I guess they may be true, but I think it's even more probable that it is some BTC-e-internal bot trying to get the trading volume higher in order to get more exposure for BTC-e (which they accomplished) and also appear in the first slot on Bitcoinity!
