Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted.

[philipma1957]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

predicts a tiny jump from

 current diff of 27,428,630,902
 to new diff of  27,428,876,790    

This is a .0007 percent jump .


  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 current diff of 27,428,630,902
Est next diff of 31,483,693,450

This is a 14.78 percent.

Well which will it be?
I have a good idea how each one does its magic prediction.   I usually shoot in the middle. But we ripped a 20.86 and a 15.03 back to back.  I do not think we see over 7% this time.  place your guesses here

[1714053072]

1714053072

[1714053072]

1714053072

[dropt]

It ain't over yet.  Asicminer is alleged to be deploying still.  Hashratio was still building another two warehouses in northern china, SPTech is shipping/finishing the Aug GB and then moving onto Sept orders which have sold out, Bitmain is still selling the S3 and will also be selling the S1 upgrade kits, KnC just landed 60MM for two new halls...

It's not going to be pretty for anyone still ordering HW.

[gallery2000]

It ain't over yet.  Asicminer is alleged to be deploying still.  Hashratio was still building another two warehouses in northern china, SPTech is shipping/finishing the Aug GB and then moving onto Sept orders which have sold out, Bitmain is still selling the S3 and will also be selling the S1 upgrade kits, KnC just landed 60MM for two new halls...

It's not going to be pretty for anyone still ordering HW.

and Bitmain just launched Hashnest.com with 4P

[DrG]

bitcoincharts almost always under-reports increases until the very last day.  I would go with bitcoinwisdom.  Either through luck or a real surge but hashrate hit 240PH right at the turn, so if that hashrate is real and close to 200 to 220 even then we'll probably be at least 10, if not 15%.

[railzand]

hope: -99%
expect: +14.7%

[lowbander80]

so can we every time purchase 15% hash power???
All I know is that for the next 12-14 days the payout will be almost the same
From that point on who knows, its been a bunch of unpleasant news for garage miners
I have a small hash power invested there all my profits and pay my electricity plus I buy here
and there a miner from pocket money, but until when this will continue
In one time I will reach my electricity capacity and then will need more and then willl
need more winter and less summer
I am sure I cant compet hashratio,hashnest,zencloud,knccloud, etc
So is the end of small miner / garage mining come to an end.
and then we will see how much each one of us will support the cloud mining
when you dont control anything.
I am so sceptical for my next moves as its the same game of the stock holder on a big company
that day by day increases the number of shares in circulation....finally the small stock holder
that will not continue investing will loose his investment.


I am not stopping BUT where this is going to reach.

Lowbander80

[philipma1957]

so can we every time purchase 15% hash power???
All I know is that for the next 12-14 days the payout will be almost the same
From that point on who knows, its been a bunch of unpleasant news for garage miners
I have a small hash power invested there all my profits and pay my electricity plus I buy here
and there a miner from pocket money, but until when this will continue
In one time I will reach my electricity capacity and then will need more and then willl
need more winter and less summer
I am sure I cant compet hashratio,hashnest,zencloud,knccloud, etc
So is the end of small miner / garage mining come to an end.
and then we will see how much each one of us will support the cloud mining
when you dont control anything.
I am so sceptical for my next moves as its the same game of the stock holder on a big company
that day by day increases the number of shares in circulation....finally the small stock holder
that will not continue investing will loose his investment.


I am not stopping BUT where this is going to reach.

Lowbander80

I wish you were wrong,but as I see it the home miner era is ending.  Yeah I managed to find some 3 cent a kwatt power but only enough to use 2 s-3's.  I also found some 6 cent a kwatt power  and once again not a lot 2 tubes.

So in house I can run  nothing in a month or two since my power in house is 15 cents a kwatt..
What does it all mean for my self controlled mining  around 2.4th.  All the rest must be in the cloud. I do not like the cloud. Oh well


I still think the asic builders should stand pat and mine or really limit growth as it is in their best interests to do just that.

The current bitcoinchart has a negative diff 27428m to 27419m just under -0.033 %

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   27419024068

http://bitcoincharts.com

If I run 20ph at 1 watt a gh and 6 cents a kwatt
I have no need to grow if I can convince the 4 or 5 other big players to do the same.
If the network is 210ph and grows under 5% my 20ph at 1 watt-gh 6 cents a kwatt and 480 usd makes quite a bit of coin.

A 1th unit would earn 1300 usd after power  a builder can make one for  300 usd so a 1000 dollar profit  times 1000 = 1 million dollars on 1 ph if growth is stifled to 5%
 that is 20 million dollars on a 20 ph center.

[mmortal03]

bitcoincharts looks to be down.

[philipma1957]

Charts are back up  and they predict a very small jump. 

http://www.bitcoincharts.com

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   27924069456 in 1487 blks
that is about 1.81%



 A big contrast with


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:           27,428,630,902
Estimated Next Difficulty:   31,695,344,824 (+15.56%)

most likely we will be at  6-9% but 3-5% would be better.

[FlyForFun]

I would go with bitcoinwisdom, they are usually right...

[frigidformself]

Charts are back up  and they predict a very small jump. 

http://www.bitcoincharts.com

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   27924069456 in 1487 blks
that is about 1.81%



 A big contrast with


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:           27,428,630,902
Estimated Next Difficulty:   31,695,344,824 (+15.56%)

most likely we will be at  6-9% but 3-5% would be better.

Every two weeks I die a little inside.

[philipma1957]

Charts are back up  and they predict a very small jump.  

http://www.bitcoincharts.com

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   27924069456 in 1487 blks
that is about 1.81%



 A big contrast with


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:           27,428,630,902
Estimated Next Difficulty:   31,695,344,824 (+15.56%)

most likely we will be at  6-9% but 3-5% would be better.

Every two weeks I die a little inside.

yeah most often it is true.

@ FlyForFun

www.bitcoincharts.com uses real time speed based on the 1 diff session  

www.bitcoinwisdom.com tosses in a mix of the older and current sessions.

So if you had a big diff the last few sessions   www.bitcoinwisdom.com runs high until the last day or two.

www.bitcoincharts.com uses real time so 5 blocks  one the one jump in they can be way off. 100 blocks  in way off.   Right now they are 700 blocks in about 1400 to go.  they are trending up to 2.4%   most likely that is still too low but bitcoinwisedom has been flat at 14.93 % .  I am still thinking we will be under 10% this time maybe under 8%.

[eoakland]

my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th. 

[philipma1957]

my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th.  

 well the batch #8 is the next jump not this one.
about 2222 s-3's = 1 ph  as  2222 x 450 = 999,900  that is just under 1ph.
1ph =  under 0.5% diff jump. as the network is over 200ph
I do not believe they sold 10,000 since early batches ran under 3000 a batch.
so that is 4.5 th or  a 2.2% jump.


The network is getting very big.  I would be shocked to see a 16% jump this time.
That would be over 32ph in gear.  That is about  71,000 s-3's

Not going to happen.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  1 block in 9.3 minutes

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  6.24 blocks in 1 hour or 1 block on 9.6 minutes

but I was wrong on some of my guesses the 20% jump fooled me.

[DrG]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

[philipma1957]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 %

[DrG]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 %

Well you can't forecast luck.  BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly.  The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining 

[philipma1957]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 %

Well you can't forecast luck.  BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly.  The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining 

Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable.  well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%.

[eoakland]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 %

Well you can't forecast luck.  BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly.  The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining 

Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable.  well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%.

Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ?

[philipma1957]

I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate.  If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.

AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware.

well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 %

Well you can't forecast luck.  BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly.  The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining  

Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable.  well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%.

Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ?

  No that is gambling. This thread is speculation and is here to guide those looking to expand or shrink their mining activities.
Lets face it I am in the camp that   growth is shrinking towards  a 6-9%  range for the next 140 days.  Doc G is in the 12-18% camp.
Makes a big difference on how you play with BTC mining.  If you are in my camp and your power cost is under 10 cents a k-watt you can still buy gear. If you are in Doc G's camp buying gear is wrong even with cheaper power. His camp would say shrink your mining and use the money from selling it to buy coins.
      Lets face both of us are in the dark making educated guesses as to what to do.  For me dumping gear is a reality my 2 small cheap power deals are filled up and in house at 15 cents a k-watt  will stop working in a few months.  Even with 4-8% growth my in house mining ends in feb or march.

and btc wise = 13.58%

bitcoin charts = 5.87%  as of 1 pm eastern standard time.   and we are about 1000 block done and 1100 to go.