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Author Topic: A year from now (2013/04/15)  (Read 7443 times)
nedbert9
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April 18, 2012, 06:23:45 PM
 #41

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat. This forces existing miner who wanna upgrade to sell their old equipment for fiat which would otherwise flow back into the bitcoin economy.
But the longer trend gives hope, since the Spartan 6 LX150 has been established as 'the chip' for open source mining platforms it will get synergistic improvement from various projects and possible market leverage in buying the chips in the future.
This will strengthen the community and provide stable growth if people realize they will be better up with open products with community involvement and room to improvement than proprietary crap.

Agreed. I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale. This may already happen this summer, possibly long before anyone will have had the chance to pay off their FPGA rig.
So I think a lot of people will drop out and won't upgrade to FPGAs and buy coins instead. For many, mining wasn't really that cool of a deal considering the mini margin and the many hours put into rig building, maintainance and forum watching for possible lose all money risks.
Sure, it's fun. But honestly, it was'nt really such a great business model. The risks are just too great. And what ARE you gonna do with FPGAs if "shit starts hitting the fan"? Just wishing your lost investment away won't do the trick. Unless you are in denial. This may be a wide spread issue around Bitcoin entrepreneurs.


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April 18, 2012, 07:53:12 PM
 #42

I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale.
IMHO the risk with ASICs is far more substantial. FPGAs can easily be used for other purposes and their resell value will not be anywhere near 0, regardless of what happens with Bitcoin. There's plenty of hobbyists playing with FPGAs for all kinds of purposes and especially a medium sized cluster of them is a rather attractive piece of equipment.
With ASICs on the other hand you have the high risk of losing all your investment should Bitcoin have to upgrade its hashing routines due to advances in cryptoanalysis. I'd be wary to bet a million on SHA256 staying secure enough for another decade and that's exactly what ASIC early adopters would be doing.
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April 18, 2012, 08:20:25 PM
 #43

I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale.
IMHO the risk with ASICs is far more substantial. FPGAs can easily be used for other purposes and their resell value will not be anywhere near 0, regardless of what happens with Bitcoin. There's plenty of hobbyists playing with FPGAs for all kinds of purposes and especially a medium sized cluster of them is a rather attractive piece of equipment.
With ASICs on the other hand you have the high risk of losing all your investment should Bitcoin have to upgrade its hashing routines due to advances in cryptoanalysis. I'd be wary to bet a million on SHA256 staying secure enough for another decade and that's exactly what ASIC early adopters would be doing.

Both are risky for different reasons, to different degrees. If Asics do show up try to find a hobbiest to take your then unprofitable mini rig. Esp. if there are thousands of users to offer fpgas to them suddenly. But those people who made profits with their GPUs are likely to take that risk. The Asic guys must be close to crazy imo for investing so much cash into something so fundamentally risky. In fact, so risky that I'd hold them to be bad businessmen to take the risks. That's probably why they want the community to cover their risk in offering shares. Now, factor in greed, and it's probably gonna happen anyway. The question remains if and which of those risks may come true and who will lose in the end. Again, if I want to go gambling, I choose a Casino. I don't think this has anything to do with real business and acceptable risk.

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April 18, 2012, 09:56:28 PM
 #44

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat.

So does your Windows computer shop. What's your point here?

Frankly, I don't care whether someone wants to use fiat money alongside other (private) alternatives. The trend to FPGAs is simply market mechanics. I wish the gamblers with their FPGA-farms good luck and am happy to see my future BTC payments processed by the grace of FPGA-farms.

It's all connected.

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April 19, 2012, 07:47:20 PM
 #45

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat.

So does your Windows computer shop. What's your point here?

Frankly, I don't care whether someone wants to use fiat money alongside other (private) alternatives. The trend to FPGAs is simply market mechanics. I wish the gamblers with their FPGA-farms good luck and am happy to see my future BTC payments processed by the grace of FPGA-farms.

It's all connected.

NO


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April 20, 2012, 02:17:48 AM
 #46

Hahahaha ^
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March 06, 2013, 04:21:19 PM
 #47

Necrodigging this topic for some laughs. Lots of nice predictions in here Smiley Enjoy.

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March 06, 2013, 05:05:57 PM
 #48

The year+ predictions are the only ones worth speculating on.  I mean when BTC is at $49 and you start a thread "predicting" that it will hit $50 within the week, that's pretty lame.

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March 06, 2013, 05:28:40 PM
 #49

The year+ predictions are the only ones worth speculating on.  I mean when BTC is at $49 and you start a thread "predicting" that it will hit $50 within the week, that's pretty lame.

But you can see that predicting bitcoin price in a year is a silly idea too Smiley 35 was the bravest guess, I must say pretty close and bold when everybody was thinking about a 5-15 range...

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March 06, 2013, 05:29:32 PM
 #50

OP being so wrong as he is really mean "triple digits".

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April 05, 2013, 01:15:11 AM
 #51

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits.  I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread.  I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now.  In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble.  My the odds be ever in my favor.

Is that single digits in mBTC?

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April 05, 2013, 01:16:15 AM
 #52

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits.  I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread.  I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now.  In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble.  My the odds be ever in my favor.

Is that single digits in mBTC?
lol!

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April 05, 2013, 02:50:45 AM
 #53

Thank you Piramida for digging this up, made me laugh!  Grin
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April 05, 2013, 03:20:51 AM
 #54

LOL
So I average the predictions, some interpretation was used:
Double digest = $10
Single digests = $5   
Pushing past = +1 
Between X and Y = average of X and Y. 

The Average price predictions a year ago was: $14.54 off by a whole decimal place. 

Calling for more prediction a year from today:

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April 05, 2013, 03:22:39 AM
 #55

I'll take a random unsupported guess based on previous inaccuracies.  

$1500 on April 5th 2014

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April 05, 2013, 04:44:36 AM
 #56

Now guys, it's entirely possible that proudhon has 2 million BTC stashed away and is prepared to dump them all just to claim victory Tongue

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April 05, 2013, 04:50:40 AM
 #57

Fuck, i was reading this thread like the OP was made in 2013.
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April 05, 2013, 04:51:40 AM
 #58

Good old Proudhon Cheesy
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April 05, 2013, 05:28:18 AM
 #59

Good old Proudhon Cheesy

The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

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April 05, 2013, 11:01:01 AM
 #60


The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron.

i am satoshi
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