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Author Topic: SmartBetting, a profitable investment possibility. 33% collected in 1 week  (Read 3036 times)
CoinThinker
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September 03, 2014, 10:21:25 PM
Last edit: September 11, 2014, 06:17:43 PM by CoinThinker
 #1

I want to invite you all to have a look at the following investment possibility:

https://bitcoinstarter.com/projects/1000

Please take 10-15 minutes to carefully read the presentation before you start asking questions. Smiley

I open this thread as the official thread for this project. Please feel free to raise all the questions, concerns you might have in this thread (or via PM), and I will be happy to answer you an share more details with you (of course within reasonable levels).

EDIT: 5 BTC collected in one day. 45 more to go (it can come from a single investor too, so hurry up if you don't want to be too late).

EDIT 2: Within one week this project collected about 33% (5 BTC via bitcoinstarter and 11.6 BTC directly to my address with txid 4f396d3a3fc907e0cf26d72b70f5b3aee125503a73122bc079ad3736f0e433d3). There are about ONLY 33 BTC left to be collected, so if you want to invest in this project then you need to think/act fast.

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September 03, 2014, 10:49:17 PM
 #2

The link provided took me to this page;

"This Connection is Untrusted

You have asked Firefox to connect securely to bitcoinstarter.com, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely, sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified."

that's as far as I went.
CoinThinker
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September 03, 2014, 10:54:22 PM
 #3

The link provided took me to this page;

"This Connection is Untrusted

You have asked Firefox to connect securely to bitcoinstarter.com, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely, sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified."

that's as far as I went.

Hmm... that's strange, I use Chrome and have no problem accessing it, no warnings or whatever.

Anyway, you can imagine that bitcoinstarter is NOT my website. It is a bitcoin crowd funding website I have found and where I have listed my project. Being so, I am not sure how much you should worry about the security certificate warning of bitcoinstarter.com.

SebastianJu
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September 04, 2014, 12:31:56 AM
 #4

Did you test already if your prediction algorhythm will work? I only think the following:

Each and every bettings site needs to calculate how certain win for a match and player is. Depending on that they will set the payout levels. At the end they do exactly what you try to do. So if someone wants to know, which player most likely will win, he only needs to check betting sites and the odds will show him the outcome that will come most likely. If that wouldnt work then betting sites would go bankrupt pretty fast.

So why do you think that you can create a system that is better than the predictions of those betting sites, that probably tweak their algo since decades already?

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September 04, 2014, 04:10:01 AM
Last edit: September 04, 2014, 04:32:46 AM by Phildo
 #5

Is it really a good use of your time and energy to develop a system for every sport?

Wouldn't it make more sense to focus on a few sports at a time that have big markets and big opportunities to make money?

Edit: Also, if you spend the time and energy to make an algorithm/program/system/whatever that can tell you what you should bet on, shouldn't you bet instead of selling it?
CoinThinker
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September 04, 2014, 12:10:00 PM
 #6

Did you test already if your prediction algorhythm will work? I only think the following:

Each and every bettings site needs to calculate how certain win for a match and player is. Depending on that they will set the payout levels. At the end they do exactly what you try to do. So if someone wants to know, which player most likely will win, he only needs to check betting sites and the odds will show him the outcome that will come most likely. If that wouldnt work then betting sites would go bankrupt pretty fast.

So why do you think that you can create a system that is better than the predictions of those betting sites, that probably tweak their algo since decades already?

SebastianJu, I think you really really overrate sports betting websites and establishing the betting odds are a lot more subjective as you might think.

The betting odds established at websites are based on most of the times on Betfair's betting odds. If you don't believe me, then just have a look, try with any sports from soccer to horse racing, and you will see that the moment the betting odds are getting smaller on betfair, within minutes websites will adjust their odds too, and when odds getting higher on Betfair they raise their own odds too. You can see this best at horse racing as there changes will happen faster, as opposed to a soccer game (but there too you will see immediately).
So what sports betting websites have algorythms for is to eliminate arbitrage possibilities, and make sure they keep their odds lower than they betfair lay bets odds are. Otherwise you would bet on any event on the sports betting website and you would lay the same amount on betfair (or almost the same amount) and you wouldn't really care about the result: every time it happens that you win at the sports betting agency, you win...

So Betfair establishes in reality odds market. So what's wrong with this then? Might Betfair have better algorythms or something? No, that's not the case at all. Why? Because Betfair is an exchange market where odds are traded. Odds are established by players on the market and that is why things become subjective again. If somebody for example is so confident that TEAM A will win that he throws on the market a very large amount, that will immediately push down the odds unless there is not an equal financial support for TEAM B also on the betfair exchange market. Of course, in this case if you start to think about the possible difference in sizes of the two clubs (TEAM A, and TEAM B) fans clubs, it will be obvious in which direction odds are going.
And I am not saying that this is a bad thing, or that this market trends might not have objective basis too. But there is a lot of subjectivity to it, and that is the part my system can at least in big part eliminate.

That's how it happened for example that Man Utd had odds around 1.2 (so you actually had to risk 500 USD to win 100 USD) against Stoke City, in a game which after all he lost with 0-1. I am not saying either that my system would have been suggesting to place a bet on Stoke City. My system would simply skip this bet (or just mark with a yellow flag or something to bet with caution), mostly because if you analyze objectively the late results of these teams you will immediately see that Man Utd. has lots of draws in best case scenario, and losses. Didn't actually won a match for a while. Of course the analysis it's not simple, you need to make a lot of cross-analysis, etc. I am just trying to summarize it briefly.

According to van Gaal (their coach) this defeat against Stoke "wasn't a surprise". So if people their own coach didn't considered this to be a surprise, how come odds were down as 1.2? Because of the subjective factor.

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September 04, 2014, 12:26:16 PM
 #7

Is it really a good use of your time and energy to develop a system for every sport?

Wouldn't it make more sense to focus on a few sports at a time that have big markets and big opportunities to make money?

Edit: Also, if you spend the time and energy to make an algorithm/program/system/whatever that can tell you what you should bet on, shouldn't you bet instead of selling it?

I am not going to develop for every sport. I stated that I will focus on soccer, basketball, handball, volleyball, baseball and tennis for the starters. I have chosen these because I can access comprehensive stats for these sports, and with those I can work out great predictions (as explained in the other reply, the system will not give a prediction for every event, it will rather pick some events whereby the predictions based on the facts have higher probabilities, and will skip the other events).

To answer your edit as well: it doesn't matter how great predictions you have if you don't want to gamble everything you have (which is not my case definitely, I have family and responsibilities). With the amount I could afford to loose now (as anyone should only gamble with that) it would take forever. Another problem is that I have to build this system to make it automated, otherwise I am forced to make it manually as well, which can not lead to results under no circumstances. It means too much time spent, with little bankroll, means it simply doesn't worth the effort.

On the other hand, from a business perspective: if I charge 0.05 BTC (or equivalent in USD) from every member, then at 1.000 members I have 1.000 x 0.05 = 50 BTC and as I am giving back to the investors 60% of it, I will still remain with 20 BTC every single month. If the system will become popular (which I am absolutely sure it will become very very popular), and it will have 10.000 members in time, that would be 200 BTC for me every single month passive income. I think it really worth the trouble, don't you? Smiley

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September 04, 2014, 12:35:49 PM
 #8

So this has a pyramid scheme/snow ball system built right into it. Nice.
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September 04, 2014, 01:04:40 PM
 #9

I didnt know that betting sites odds are only based on the bets done. I really thought betting sites run complicated statistics together with investigators checking facts. That of course leaves room for optimizations i guess. Since fans are onesidedly fans and dont want to belive the other party will win.

So can you say a bit about what factors you will put into your algo? I saw previous results of course. But i imagine handling this will be really really difficult.

I see you dont want to stay anonymous. Thats a good thing.


So this has a pyramid scheme/snow ball system built right into it. Nice.

Where do you see that?

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CoinThinker
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September 04, 2014, 01:08:49 PM
 #10

So this has a pyramid scheme/snow ball system built right into it. Nice.

What? I really don't get what you mean, sorry.

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September 04, 2014, 05:12:30 PM
 #11

First 5 BTC just arrived to bitcoinstarter: https://bitcoinstarter.com/projects/1000, so this project starts to lift off.

Thanks a lot SebastianJu, you are the first investor into this system. Smiley I am sure that you (neither the investors who will follow), will not be disappointed.

There are 45 BTC left to collect, after that happens investment period is closed, and this boat is gone forever.

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September 04, 2014, 09:16:57 PM
 #12

Of course it's worth it for you to take our money and not take any risk on whether or not the sports picks actually are good.

the question is, why are people going to give you money for picks that you aren't confident enough to bet on your own? Sorry for being so pessimistic, but in my mind you are taking 2 of the scammiest corners of the internet (bitcoin securities and selling sports picks) and combining them into one mega project.
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September 04, 2014, 09:28:35 PM
 #13

Of course it's worth it for you to take our money and not take any risk on whether or not the sports picks actually are good.

the question is, why are people going to give you money for picks that you aren't confident enough to bet on your own? Sorry for being so pessimistic, but in my mind you are taking 2 of the scammiest corners of the internet (bitcoin securities and selling sports picks) and combining them into one mega project.

I am sorry that you read only part of my answer... it's not only about money, it's about time too. Making an analysis is very complex and time consuming effort and there is no guarantee that the event you start with can have a prediction or no, so you might be loosing an entire hour for nothing, and so on.

Just to make you understand the complexity of what I am trying to achieve here take as example a simple  1, X or 2 prediction for a soccer game and how analysis would happen, what it would be based on. I really really don't want to share all my thoughts in public, but I will share this one, so you see how complex it is what I want to build, and why doesn't work like you think: trying to figure out things manually and bet on them

So let me give you an example for a soccer game: Team A vs. Team B. The next details are going to take part of the analysis when we want to decide whether it's gonna be 1, X or 2 (usually this is reduced to 1 or 2 either with 1X or 2X, either by betting on W1, or W2, meaning win A or B, but if draw then the odds will be considered 1, and money will be returned; usually betting on X will never happen).

Now, about the factors:
- A and B recent form: this means that we will analyze what have they done in the last 5-10 matches they had. It is not going to be a simple won, draw or loss statistics, but will assign points also based on the teams they have played with. So for example, if team A have won the last match, but team A is #2 in the standings and just beat #15 in the standings, might get smaller amount of points for this as team B  who is number #5 in the standings and made a draw with #1. Of course this is just as example, what you need to remember from it, that first factor is the RECENT FORM.
- second factor will be actually the standings: is there a big difference between the two teams? Is A lot better ranked as B? Not only in absolute positions, but also in the number of points (wins, losses and draws) they have made
- third factor will be to analyze the form of each team (A and B) when playing HOME (for A) and playing AWAY (for B)
- fourth factor will be to analyze how the possible outcome will influence the standings. For example if team A is at position number #3, with 10 points behind number #2 (and assuming that the first two teams in the standings are going further, or qualifying to some international competition or whatever), then of course it will weight a lot in their dedication if they will play with a stake or without. Same is true for example when a team is in danger to fall out from a competition, or to loose it's ranking which ensures a higher level. Middfield of the standings will be not so competitive.
- Fifth factor is going to analyze their attack and defense. How many goals they have given, when and how many they have got (of course if a team has a strong attack and nothing changed in the team construction - which is another factor, I will not write it separately), and the other team has a weak defense then it is a good indication of what might happen
- sixth factor: cross analysis, meaning that the system will trace if in the recent past had team A and team B the same team C, D, ... as adversary. If so, then a comparison will be made with what team A and team B managed to make against team C, D... because that is also a good indicator.

There are more things to play a role and of course I just described them really really briefly. Things in back end will be of course a lot more complex, but I hope I managed to give you an idea of how subjectivity can be replaced at least in a big part by information, analysis, etc. Also, I really hope that you see that this is something impossible to make manually, it's just too much work. Especially, that there will be numerous occasions when all this parameters will lead you nowhere, and there will be no clear prediction possibly made.

One more thing: the system when we are talking about a soccer game between A and B it's not going to analyze only whether it can be 1, X or 2. It will analyze for example how many goals are expected to be (not exactly, but in the sense 1 or more, 2 or more, etc), how many faults, corners, etc. (Of course for all these different factors will be applied, so each market will have lots of sub-markets, and for each sub-market there will be totally different formulas).
So far I can tell you that the way I see it won't be rare that the system can't give a prediction for 1, X, 2, but will be able to give for a sub market or vice-versa.
 

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September 04, 2014, 09:38:04 PM
 #14

Oh, and one more thing: it's not true that I don't risk anything, because even if I don't have the 25k to make this happen, I risk a lot of "collateral" things:

- first, if I start this project I will not be able to work on anything else until it's completed and probably after the development part is ready, most of my time will be consumed by marketing and improvments; this means that I can not take on board other jobs (and being a very good web programmer I am making nice money)
- secondly, it's my reputation: as you can see I don't try to hide at all, giving out all my contact details; if I would hate something more than anything is to fail delivering what I agree with someone
- thirdly: don't forget that this money doesn't go in my pocket. I hope you realize that a project of this magnitude has huge development costs (actually, I already received from other signals that how is possible to make it so cheap, as this is really a megaproject)
- last, but not least: I only asked money for the first part of the project, because I will sustain the second step from my own efforts (marketing, and please don't underestimate that part either, even if it's far from the development costs)


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September 04, 2014, 10:13:50 PM
 #15

The link provided took me to this page;

"This Connection is Untrusted

You have asked Firefox to connect securely to bitcoinstarter.com, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely, sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified."

that's as far as I went.

Hi,

Were you able to get in to see the project? Let me know and I can look into it as the site should be verified and we have an SSL certificate. Thanks!

🔥BitcoinStarter.com🔥- Crowdfunding with Bitcoin. Fund a project or start your own
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September 04, 2014, 11:54:07 PM
 #16

Every wall of text explains how difficult a project your undertaking, but doesn't answer the main question that needs to be answered for you to make money.

Why are you going to do all of that work and not make the bet yourself? If you aren't going to make that bet, why should I make that bet, and why should I pay you for that information if you don't think it's good enough to make the bet yourself?

it just doesn't make sense to me, if you are going to do all that work, you should bet it. If you have a system that will spit out a smart bet for every game and/or submarket, it shouldn't take that long for you to take whatever bankroll you have and turn it into much more money than you'd be able to make selling picks.
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September 05, 2014, 12:11:56 AM
 #17

Every wall of text explains how difficult a project your undertaking, but doesn't answer the main question that needs to be answered for you to make money.

Why are you going to do all of that work and not make the bet yourself? If you aren't going to make that bet, why should I make that bet, and why should I pay you for that information if you don't think it's good enough to make the bet yourself?

it just doesn't make sense to me, if you are going to do all that work, you should bet it. If you have a system that will spit out a smart bet for every game and/or submarket, it shouldn't take that long for you to take whatever bankroll you have and turn it into much more money than you'd be able to make selling picks.

You might think about that it isnt so much about the system working wonders but about people wanting to believe in it. It might very well be possible that the predictions are so that, over 100 bets, you have, including losses and wins, a profit at the end. That would be a good outcome already. But there will be single correct predictions all the time too. And those are worth advertising with.

At the end i think it will be hard to code a really groundbreaking algo. I think many already tried that. But i see it more as an advanced gambling site. People went to justdice because they thought they can win. Even though they knew they most probably will lose. Nothing different to this project. People will believe that they will have an advantage. They will see the correct listed and what they could have won with it. And if it works they really will have an advantage, making them returnin customers. But until its at that status they come because they want to believe in the correct predictions. Nothing more than the greed of gamblers. Gamblers will be there all the time. So its better they give the coins to this project than to some random casino somewhere.

Thats what i think about it. I would prefer checking the issuer out carefully though i wont be able to check him out in person. So i plegded the minimum.

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CoinThinker
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September 05, 2014, 12:16:37 AM
 #18

Every wall of text explains how difficult a project your undertaking, but doesn't answer the main question that needs to be answered for you to make money.

Why are you going to do all of that work and not make the bet yourself? If you aren't going to make that bet, why should I make that bet, and why should I pay you for that information if you don't think it's good enough to make the bet yourself?

it just doesn't make sense to me, if you are going to do all that work, you should bet it. If you have a system that will spit out a smart bet for every game and/or submarket, it shouldn't take that long for you to take whatever bankroll you have and turn it into much more money than you'd be able to make selling picks.

I am sorry, but clearly you don't understand what I am trying to achieve here. Please read again what I wrote.

Never told that I will not bet AFTER the system is ready. Trust me, I'll be the first to use it Smiley) and it is a very good reason also why I want to see this system ready.

Now, to explain this again. You are saying that: "If you have a system that will spit out a smart bet for every game and/or submarket"... the point is, and this is what I have been explaining, that in most of the cases it will be impossible to make a clear prediction. So without an automated system, I should start taking for example the soccer games one by one, go trough all the stats I have mentioned and more (which is at least 30-60 minutes manually for a game), and try to make a prediction, just to end up realizing that it's not possible for this specific event. Then I should take the next one, and the next one and so on. And that's only looking at the surface, at the 1X2 game.

You need an automated filter, which will select for you the events whereby information and facts can give you a better prediction probability. Otherwise for example, on a normal day, when there are like 50 to 100 soccer games, how do you select those which are OK, when you need to spend at least 30 minutes with one doing the job manually? You see the problem?  
So what bettors do: because they can't select manually they go for their instinct, trying to combine more events into one ticket, to get a bigger possible win, because most of them are not willing to risk large amount of money on a single event, without a good research or knowledge about it. And that takes incredible amount of time.

The system I intend to build will serve you (and me, and anyone else) a list with the events you should focus on if you don't want o gamble with prediction suggestions, and explanation why it served this prediction. And it will be lightning fast, you don't have to spend all day trying to research a few events from the thousands of events every day (because there are literally thousands: usually one soccer game has at least 10-15 sub - markets too, so make the calculus).

Without this system I can't bet either the way I described, a smart betting way based on replacing the luck factor as much as possible with cruel facts, and data.

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September 05, 2014, 12:42:12 AM
 #19

Question about this monthly price. Does it start when the website goes live and the system starts making bets, or do we have to give .05BTC per month even if the system isn't ready?

Quick edit: also, if my math is right (and it may not be since I did this really quickly), if I invest only .05BTC, and the monthly amount distributed to investors is 30BTC as stated in your prospectus I will only be making .03BTC a month, so that's not even break even after fees. In order to break even, 50BTC would have to be distributed. How much BTC do you see being distributed to investors a month?

If you feel like donating: 1NtgJf4znCsA5GJDCbqtowHL2143WyqLkC
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September 05, 2014, 03:34:45 AM
 #20

I know exactly what you are saying, you are missing my point.

You are going to sell sports picks. you can dress it up with as many words as you want, and say the words "data" and "facts" as much as you want, but it boils down to you selling picks. This has historically been a terrible proposition for the consumer because people who can actually look at the data and facts and whatever and figure out which way to bet on sports BET ON SPORTS instead of selling their picks, and the people that sell their picks are doing it because betting their picks doesn't make enough money.

My question is, if you make this system as you have described, why would you need to sell the service out to other people? You have a money making algorithm, if it was great you would use it instead of selling it to me and letting me cut into your profits. if your system says that Arsenal at +189 this weekend is a good bet, you would be it, you wouldn't let me bet it and possibly change the odds.
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