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Author Topic: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market  (Read 3508 times)
mem
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April 18, 2012, 02:54:07 AM
 #1

I want to invest some money into mining but atm - all offerings have serious short comings.

All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years.
Unfortunately BFL's have a wait time of 3-4 months which also makes its ROI time over 1 year.
Were I to order one now I could expect to start using it August - Sept, just ~2-3 months shy of the reward being halved and I would have waited 4 months not earning anything from my investment.

Im looking at buying 1-2 ATI 7970's despite the massive power consumption I can still make money off them until the end of the year (I live in au, power is $0.22c/kwh) and then reuse the cards for gaming and my media pc.

My prediction for ~4-5 months into the future:

* all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment.
* Several FPGA's will simply be pulled from the market or sold at a loss when their ROI times go past 2 years (nearly there already for quite a few).
* China starts thrashing out FPGA's priced to put all western competition out of the market.
* Difficulty goes through the roof due to mass amounts of BFL's online and possibly vladmir and other companies as well.
** All current FPGA investors lose out horribly due a massive difficulty spike - ROI times go past 2 years, for large investors possibly 4 years.


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rograz
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April 18, 2012, 03:03:13 AM
 #2

Well you can't really expect them to sell them at a loss, especially when order books are swamped.
Beaflag VonRathburg
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April 18, 2012, 03:40:26 AM
 #3

I really like the new ztex quad board and there is a price break at buying them, versus 4x single boards, but... I just put my BFL order in today for an undisclosed amount of singles. Even with the wait period of the BFL singles the ROI for me is still quicker than ordering anything else, receiving it instantly, and mining with it the next three to four months. If the quad Ztex boards were $800 USD I would have bought a quite a few of them instead of the BFL singles as they're more efficient and would have produced a quicker ROI.

I'm really not too sure how the market is going to do with the block reward drop and prices. We can speculate all we want, but in reality we're just going to have to wait it out. That's going to have a direct response on FPGA costs as well. The more profitable mining becomes the higher I see manufacturers slowly driving costs. We'll see....

Inspector 2211
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April 18, 2012, 03:44:16 AM
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You can't really blame board manufacturers for trying to make a profit. It's called capitalism.
If you want to have an inexpensive FPGA farm, design your own PCB and have the boards manufactured and assembled in China.
You don't even have to come up with your own bitstream - you can take one of the existing ones...
mem
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April 18, 2012, 03:59:27 AM
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You can't really blame board manufacturers for trying to make a profit. It's called capitalism.

Ahh hurr duurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. No shit sherlock  Tongue
You cant really blame me for breathing air its called living.

my point is that they are running the risk of losing money with current prices and production volume.
Their ventures may simply not be profitable if they cannot shift enough volume in the next 6 months.
Investors venture would also most likely move from a ROI of 1 year to an ROI of at least 2, possibly 3.

If/Once the price tanks or difficulty sky rockets they will be left holding a warehouse of specialized devices whose only use is to lose money unless you have access to free electricity (ie solar).

Well you can't really expect them to sell them at a loss, especially when order books are swamped.

Their order books are not swapped, they have less than 100 orders - for any company Id call that peanuts.

I'm really not too sure how the market is going to do with the block reward drop and prices. We can speculate all we want, but in reality we're just going to have to wait it out. That's going to have a direct response on FPGA costs as well. The more profitable mining becomes the higher I see manufacturers slowly driving costs. We'll see....

Indeed, I will be interested to see how quickly your order turns up.
Im still considering ordering one for a test myself, Id like to order 20 but alas their shipping times would need to be quicker for my to avoid a a long ROI.


organofcorti
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April 18, 2012, 06:18:49 AM
 #6

Opinions are like assholes.

Everyone likes the sound of their own but not anyone else's?

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DiabloD3
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April 18, 2012, 06:26:27 AM
 #7

Opinions are like assholes.

Everyone like the sound of their own but not anyone else's?

Not many can play Dueling Banjos

Syke
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April 18, 2012, 07:12:08 AM
 #8

All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years.

I picked up some Icaruses that'll break even in about 1 year. I expect them to last at least 2 years which puts the investment at over 100% return. I consider that most excellent.

If/Once the price tanks or difficulty sky rockets they will be left holding a warehouse...

Nobody has a warehouse of these things. Everyone is just doing small runs that are sold as soon as the orders are open for them.

Buy & Hold
mem
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April 18, 2012, 07:20:36 AM
 #9

Opinions are like assholes.

So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ?

I picked up some Icaruses that'll break even in about 1 year. I expect them to last at least 2 years which puts the investment at over 100% return. I consider that most excellent.

What is your power charged at if you dont mind me asking ?

looking at TP's calculator it puts  the Icarus at 467.9 days for ROI if you get free power.
So in reality if you want 100% return you should be looking at 900+ days.

http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1577913.4857&hashrate=380.00&exchangerate=5.02&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=569.00&powerconsumption=20.00&powercost=0.00&investmentperiod=365

How was shipping for your icarus ? quick ?

Syke
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April 18, 2012, 08:08:41 AM
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What is your power charged at if you dont mind me asking ?

.08/kwh

looking at TP's calculator it puts  the Icarus at 467.9 days for ROI if you get free power.
So in reality if you want 100% return you should be looking at 900+ days.

http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1577913.4857&hashrate=380.00&exchangerate=5.02&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=569.00&powerconsumption=20.00&powercost=0.00&investmentperiod=365

I got in on the bulk order, so the cost was only $469. I expect with adequate cooling I can run a 400 mhps bitstream on them. That puts the ROI at about 378 days.

How was shipping for your icarus ? quick ?

They haven't arrived yet, but ETA looks like about 3 weeks.

Buy & Hold
mem
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April 18, 2012, 11:59:22 AM
 #11

Damn that is cheap power, Im so jealous.

Shame the icarus board has been discontinued, it does seem like a viable option especially with the cheaper power consumption,
Good luck with your mining  Grin

bitlane
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April 18, 2012, 02:11:50 PM
 #12

I am interested to see what Lancelot brings to the table, seeing as how Icarus was such a success (and learning experience for the designer/engineer).

I have a feeling BFL might be in trouble if they are unable to satisfy the needs of the masses before ngzhang launches his new would-be? hashing monster.

Chefnet
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April 18, 2012, 02:23:40 PM
 #13

719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI

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April 18, 2012, 02:42:21 PM
 #14

719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI

No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double.

And 25 quads it's a 18K EUR investment (even more if you have to pay VAT).

spiccioli


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April 18, 2012, 03:47:38 PM
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No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double.

I'm not too worried about the reward dropping. Either the price will go up or the difficulty will go down (or both). Either way, the profitability will still be good for mining with energy efficient FPGAs.

Buy & Hold
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April 18, 2012, 05:37:40 PM
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I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

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April 18, 2012, 08:45:16 PM
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I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down?

Mousepotato
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April 18, 2012, 11:45:06 PM
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I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down?

Kill-A-Watt says 1050. That is with no voltage changes or memory downclock.

Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW.
rograz
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April 19, 2012, 02:40:12 AM
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Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW.

Hand those prices over to me right know, I have a soldering gun and I'm not afraid to use it  Angry
BCMan
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April 20, 2012, 03:02:23 AM
 #20

Opinions are like assholes.

So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ?
A year from now GPUs will be irrelevant.
Not with 0.05$ per kwh. In my case FPGa's are worst choice, until prices for them will be much lower.

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