Explain me please

[sathya.singh1991]

I am new user of BITCOIN.

I see now the process are collapsing unlike the days when it was $500+. I cannot guess the actual reason as to why the rates are declining. Can anyone explain me as to how to predict the rates of BITCOINS? Also, Do Bitcoins' rates depend on any factor?

[1714797176]

1714797176

[1714797176]

1714797176

[1714797176]

1714797176

[Possum577]

Good question, welcome to the forum.

It's impossible to truly predict the future price of Bitcoin per Dollar (or your local currency). This is the same with all currency or investment valuations, it's always impossible to predict with certainty.

There are factors that can influence the price (but none of them influence the price on their own). Think about Bitcoin as having two different characteristics:

1) It can be an investment. People can buy Bitcoin and hold (or hodl as the joke goes) them with hopes that they increase in value to the fiat (Dollar or other) currency purchased with. In this scenario it acts as a peer or "sibling" to the Dollar or another investment.

2) It can be a medium of exchange or a currency used to trade goods and services. In this scenario it acts as a replacement for the Dollar (or local currency) rather than an "sibling" to it.

Both of these characteristics about Bitcoin are true, however you as a speculator may think that the population of Bitcoin users may consider Bitcoin more of one vs. the other. One thing is for certain, right now Bitcoin has both of these characteristics...no one can argue this point, yet.

The future value of Bitcoin (compared to the Dollar or some other currency) depends (in part) on whether Bitcoin leans more toward one characteristic vs. the other. If it remains to be treated as an investment, the value will go up. There are a finite amount of Bitcoins and if people don't want to sell them their value will go up (it's high demand vs. limited supply). On the other hand, if Bitcoin becomes more of a true currency, a medium of exchange, its value will go down (or at least remain stable, not go up greatly) and that's because there will be constant trading and a constant supply to meet demand.

I hope more people join this discussion because it's a good one to have. Everyone has an opinion and no one knows yet what the future holds.

Good question, enjoy your time here.

[counter]

To answer you first question, from What I've seen you can't predict the price of Bitcoin accurately. Unless ofcourse you're trained to understand a market of this nature and the technicals of chart reading.  Bitcoin is a volatile currency in which user's can choose to speculate on it's price and trade coins for potential profit, this contributes to the price fluctuations.  While trading coins can be profitable,  there will be winners and losers and neither of them may not want to hold the coins long term and dump all coins in a short amount of time only planning to hold coins to gamble on the market swings and take profit.  This could make other speculators to start dumping and a panic sell could follow.

Taking that into consideration, there also people that hold coins based on the limited supply and innovative technology of Bitcoin.  they know Bitcoin allows users to bank with security and privacy that they personally have control over and not a third party.  This makes the currency scarce so therefore more valuable as time progresses and the more people that adapt Bitcoin could translate to more people  that will save it.  This will result in a more stable and higher valued currency if the trends to save Bitcoin is more adapted by many newer users.

Keep these things in mind and then add the news unknowns(good and bad), or what every individual person will do from day to day with their coins.  Miners dumping to pay the bills comes into play also and things I've not mentioned.  Long story short yours best bet is to start of slow and only invest what you can afford to lose until you've gained some real experience and knowledge to read a chart, understand fundamentals and learn to plot out where the potential lows and highs are then determine where you would feel comfortable entering the market at any given time.  I'm not sure why you're asking but I hope that answers your questions and welcome to the forum. 

[virtualx]

I am new user of BITCOIN.

I see now the process are collapsing unlike the days when it was $500+. I cannot guess the actual reason as to why the rates are declining. Can anyone explain me as to how to predict the rates of BITCOINS? Also, Do Bitcoins' rates depend on any factor?

A full price chart can be seen here  https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price
It was at 446$ in June, went up to 674$. Now it's back at 463$. There is no collapse, the market price is swinging between 400$ and 700$ for the last 6 months.
The bitcoin price has always been fluctuating for various reasons.  Speculation board is full of price predictions but nobody has a crystal ball.  The market price depends on many factors from supply/demand, deflation, mining difficulty, scarcity, whales wanting to make profits on panic sellers etc.  

[Sutters Mill]

It's not far off 500 USD now. As for why the price falls there doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason as to why, but I guess it's basic supply and demand. Nobody could tell you what causes the ups and downs though other than that.

[CoinReggie]

While exponentialy rising value was good to attract users, miners and investors, stable value is needed to achieve customer and merchant adoption, so being around $500 is not neccesary bad. As it is now, nobody really knows where we'll be in a year, up at $10k or down at $1.

[oceans]

I only wish it was possible to be able to predict the rates of bitcoins. It would make things so much easier but unfortunately this is not the case and we have to just sit and wait for anything to happen which in turn can be very frustrating.

[ensurance982]

People try to predict the price, but if they could, more people would make a lot of money from Bitcoin! No one can completely definitely predict the price. The price is simply driven by supply/demand. People want a certain amount of money for a Bitcoin and others are willing to pay a certain price for them. Somewhere they meet and that's the actual price.
There's a whole forum about the speculation of the future price: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

[minerpumpkin]

What determines the price of stocks? It's supply vs. demand. People effectively negotiate the price of a Bitcoin. Imagine the following: You can buy a Bitcoin for any price you like: $1 or $100, you just have to find someone who actually accepts that price!

[CryptoCarmen]

While exponentialy rising value was good to attract users, miners and investors, stable value is needed to achieve customer and merchant adoption, so being around $500 is not neccesary bad. As it is now, nobody really knows where we'll be in a year, up at $10k or down at $1.

But again those $10k or $1, wil be just at some moment of time. When wil reach wilnto stay at $10k or $1, so if you will not sell, you will not gain that profit/loss.

[nagabeler]

BTC rates is like FOREX rates but more volatile , every one can analyse with technical or fundamental ,
but no one really know for sure what BTC rate for next year, it is depend in supply and demand
if in the future there is a country using bitcoin maybe the rate will be jump and more stable