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Author Topic: Todays difficulty increase to 156000, where from here?  (Read 5480 times)
gigabytecoin
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May 10, 2011, 01:26:02 AM
 #21

So in about seven hours the difficulty will change.  Where do you see it going next?  It is going to be around 156000 today.

My guest.... 170000

My guess.... 222222

You know you can bet on this on http://bitbet.org? Unfortunately that site is down and will be for some weeks as it seems due to hw fail.

I would never bet on something that can be manipulated by another bettor.
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May 10, 2011, 02:08:22 AM
 #22

Which is why difficulty should have been tied to something aside from hash speed.
Someone like Mystery Miner only has to activate their array for a short time each difficulty cycle and the rest of the network will not have enough time to lower the difficulty in correct proportion.
Essentially an attack.

I don't think you should call things attacks until you understand how the network works.

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May 10, 2011, 02:24:48 AM
 #23

Now that difficulty is at 157,426, I'm wondering what you guys plan to do? Add more rigs Wink? Who here plans to stop mining?

my mining with my not-yet-week-old card will continue until it is no longer profitable.  which at current power rates and bitcoin prices, would be about 1.3 million difficulty.
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May 10, 2011, 04:36:43 AM
 #24

Now that difficulty is at 157,426, I'm wondering what you guys plan to do? Add more rigs Wink? Who here plans to stop mining?

my mining with my not-yet-week-old card will continue until it is no longer profitable.  which at current power rates and bitcoin prices, would be about 1.3 million difficulty.

BTC just went to $5 on Mt.Gox ... need to get out that damned calculator again ... anybody got a good spreadsheet?

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May 10, 2011, 05:09:50 AM
 #25

due to popularity i would say between 250000-280000. Moreover i would say that 10$/btc is very close and at the end of the year
i cannot imagine how high it could be!

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May 10, 2011, 07:25:49 AM
 #26

due to popularity i would say between 250000-280000. Moreover i would say that 10$/btc is very close and at the end of the year
i cannot imagine how high it could be!

$10 very close as in a few months? Dang. That would be something! But in the end I personally care more about how many people are actively using bitcoins to exchange value than simply a high btc/usd exchange rate. Why might you ask, well it's simply because if there isn't enough economic activity to back that high valuation the the btc/usd exchange rate is unwarranted and unjustified and eventually the market will give it a true valuation which may be much lower than it currently is. The larger the bitcoin economy grows the more stable the btc/usd exchange rate will be.

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May 10, 2011, 09:01:31 AM
 #27

So in about seven hours the difficulty will change.  Where do you see it going next?  It is going to be around 156000 today.

My guest.... 170000

My guess.... 222222

You know you can bet on this on http://bitbet.org? Unfortunately that site is down and will be for some weeks as it seems due to hw fail.

I would never bet on something that can be manipulated by another bettor.

Well, it's hard enough to manipulte it to go up. Down is even harder (except for people like slush, artforz, etc... who are unlikely to do something as boring, counter-productive and extremely costly for them as betting on difficulty and then manipulating it).

However, if someone has a lot of hashing power about to go online, he might well use that "insider knowledge" to his advantage when betting.

I'm with you on not wanting to bet on difficulty, btw.

A bet is a good way of making people actually think about what they believe will happen, though Wink. Looking at data on a lively betting platform can give you quite an idea of what people think will happen and probably also what will happen. You even have the "probabilities" of the events right there.

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May 10, 2011, 09:51:29 AM
 #28

due to popularity i would say between 250000-280000. Moreover i would say that 10$/btc is very close and at the end of the year
i cannot imagine how high it could be!

$10 very close as in a few months? Dang. That would be something! But in the end I personally care more about how many people are actively using bitcoins to exchange value than simply a high btc/usd exchange rate. Why might you ask, well it's simply because if there isn't enough economic activity to back that high valuation the the btc/usd exchange rate is unwarranted and unjustified and eventually the market will give it a true valuation which may be much lower than it currently is. The larger the bitcoin economy grows the more stable the btc/usd exchange rate will be.

Well no, there is a good technical reason why the bitcoin price has to be higher, simply so that it can support a bigger economy. The detail is that since the number of bitcoins in circulation is strictly limited, around 6 million now and only 10 million by Dec 2012, then to carry a much bigger economy, say for arguments sake a $1 billion economy, then bitcoin needs to valued at around $100.

So if your favourite drug kingpin, brothel owner, poker site owner, tax evading bankster, corrupt politician, undercover CIA agent or just honest joe the plumber wants to move hundreds of thousands of 'dollars' around using bitcoin without making a blip in the market they need to be valued higher .... way, way higher.

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May 10, 2011, 09:58:38 AM
 #29

True enough, but at the moment the amount of bitcoins out there are greater than the total economic activity of the bitcoin economy. What I'm saying is that the bitcoin economy has to grow into the current number of bitcoins. The only way I can think of this not being the case if the majority (large majority) of current bitcoin holder refuse to let the currency circulate - ie they hoard it.

I do wish a large poker site would adopt bitcoins. That would be a very good bit of news for bitcoin and bitcoin users. The early miners will have a field day as no doubt this news event will push price even higher not just cause of the extra demand for bitcoins but because the news would attract new bitcoin users.


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May 11, 2011, 08:18:05 PM
 #30

A bit off-topic, sorry, but:

I had to add a note to myself: CLEAN YOUR RIG AFTER EACH DIFFICULTY CHANGE.

Today, my steady goody going mining machine crashed .. I analyzed an increased heat. I could not believe that in my clean (*grin*) living room there is soo much dust. All collected on the air fan filters (do you install them, right?).

Everything went fine again when I cleaned them up. The noise of box went down, too.

So, from now, each 2160 block I will clean them. I promise.


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May 11, 2011, 11:56:42 PM
 #31

good advice, those fans move a lot of air!

molecular
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May 12, 2011, 12:43:53 AM
 #32

A bit off-topic, sorry, but:

I had to add a note to myself: CLEAN YOUR RIG AFTER EACH DIFFICULTY CHANGE.

Today, my steady goody going mining machine crashed .. I analyzed an increased heat. I could not believe that in my clean (*grin*) living room there is soo much dust. All collected on the air fan filters (do you install them, right?).

Everything went fine again when I cleaned them up. The noise of box went down, too.

So, from now, each 2160 block I will clean them. I promise.

Hm, my miner is running outside on my balkony inside a wooden box (of course with air-in/outtakes). I had to take it out last week to flash the BIOS and checked the case and fans for dust => none. I also use no fan filters.

Pretty weird I don't have dust-related problems.. was expecting this. Maybe the outside air is actually less dusty than inside air.

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May 12, 2011, 12:52:23 AM
 #33

A bit off-topic, sorry, but:

I had to add a note to myself: CLEAN YOUR RIG AFTER EACH DIFFICULTY CHANGE.

Today, my steady goody going mining machine crashed .. I analyzed an increased heat. I could not believe that in my clean (*grin*) living room there is soo much dust. All collected on the air fan filters (do you install them, right?).

Everything went fine again when I cleaned them up. The noise of box went down, too.

So, from now, each 2160 block I will clean them. I promise.

Hm, my miner is running outside on my balkony inside a wooden box (of course with air-in/outtakes). I had to take it out last week to flash the BIOS and checked the case and fans for dust => none. I also use no fan filters.

Pretty weird I don't have dust-related problems.. was expecting this. Maybe the outside air is actually less dusty than inside air.


Bingo, way less, depending on your area of course, e.g. fresh countryside air versus desert shanty. Inside most homes are dust pits, from human and animal dander decaying mostly.

An outside air intake with modest filtering is way better than having box under you desk ... in colder climes it's the best place for it.

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May 12, 2011, 02:43:54 AM
 #34



Pretty weird I don't have dust-related problems.. was expecting this. Maybe the outside air is actually less dusty than inside air.


If you live near a busy road or in the city and have anything diesel passing by, outside will be much worse and the fumes will make anything else stick.  If you live in the country the air may be better outside then in your house.  Unfortunately the humidity after a rain make leaving a machine outside long term a bad idea. 

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May 19, 2011, 04:09:31 AM
 #35

If the continues rate of hashing growth continues at the current rate of ~2.5%/day then my first number becomes 243254 

Okay—  so I was off by 0.36%, so sue me.

molecular
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May 19, 2011, 09:43:17 AM
 #36

So in about seven hours the difficulty will change.  Where do you see it going next?  It is going to be around 156000 today.

My guest.... 170000

My guess.... 222222


So... I'm closer, new diff is 244139, I'm off by -8.9%

Did anyone else get closer?


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May 19, 2011, 10:06:54 AM
 #37

So in about seven hours the difficulty will change.  Where do you see it going next?  It is going to be around 156000 today.

My guest.... 170000

My guess.... 222222


So... I'm closer, new diff is 244139, I'm off by -8.9%

Did anyone else get closer?



My guess was 245-250,000. I think I just deleted the post when trying to quote it, oops. I lose by Price is Right rules, I was pretty close even though I went over. I wish everyone was right when they were saying 170,000-220,000.

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molecular
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May 19, 2011, 11:10:04 PM
 #38

If the continues rate of hashing growth continues at the current rate of ~2.5%/day then my first number becomes 243254 

Okay—  so I was off by 0.36%, so sue me.


you win Wink

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May 19, 2011, 11:15:36 PM
 #39

If the continues rate of hashing growth continues at the current rate of ~2.5%/day then my first number becomes 243254 

Okay—  so I was off by 0.36%, so sue me.

I think you are the single greatest comfort to me right now. I've been freaking out a little about cypherf0x's FPGA claims and the recent jump in difficulty. :-/

Do you think GPU mining will remain profitable for at least another year?
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May 19, 2011, 11:42:00 PM
 #40

If the continues rate of hashing growth continues at the current rate of ~2.5%/day then my first number becomes 243254 

Okay—  so I was off by 0.36%, so sue me.
Do you think GPU mining will remain profitable for at least another year?

NOPE. GPUs are going the way of Barney the dinosaur ! Just like the CPUs before them. GPUs were never made for mining in the first place LOL ! FPGAs and such custom hardware can be made for anything the designer wants. They are vastly superior ! You can stack them high too LOL !
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