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Author Topic: pirateat40's end game  (Read 7572 times)
BTC_Bear
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April 24, 2012, 06:48:10 PM
 #21

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I think he could easily reduce the rate from 7% to 5% and still have enough in deposit to accomplish what he's doing. 5% interest a week is still far more than what other banks are paying. So why would he leave 2% on the table?

Market Share.


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Im all for not accusing anyone of scamming without proof, but there is a sticky "Trust no one" on this forum for a reason. When something sounds too good to be true, its not unreasonable to contemplate the possibility it is indeed not true. Maybe there is a business model behind it that Im too stupid to figure out, but until someone gives me a credible explanation, Id rather distrust pirate then my own ability to reason.

This is sensible. You've weighed the risks and decided. On a percentage scale, How much do you 'trust' him? 0 -> 100%  Then invest as appropriate.

You know as well as I, before anyone gives him a signifiant amount of money, due diligence has been done. They know who he is and probably his and his families entire history. They know how he does it and the risks involved.

Your skepticism is healthy, voicing it is not always healthy.

Quote
Maybe there is a business model behind it that Im too stupid to figure out.

Don't be to hard on yourself. You're not stupid. ( I hate that term as it is subjective). I still can't figure out the Airline Industry business model, so lump me in with you.

But if you are really concerned about him, before you invest your money. The first question is: Who is Pirate?  Because do people really give large sums of money to pseudo-anonymous people on the internet. Answering that question will probably shed light on what is happening.

NDA's have probably been signed and it might take some work. But, Apple tried to hide its suppliers for the new Ipad but they forgot to include the dock workers on the loading docks.

Your skepticism does you service though. Run through the possibilities. The 'Trust No One' mantra is relevant as always. The nice thing is that you don't have to trust anyone. In my book, trust is earned through trials of fire, not whether someone charged you back or not.

Pirate does have a cloak of haze around him. As he grows, that will disappear as it did with Mark. Remember, there are sometimes real companies behind these businesses that have to live in the real world and interact with it.

Don't you find the challenge of figuring it out exciting though?  

I just find throwing out speculation as to his intent harmful rather than productive. Another post did a good job utilizing the percentages and leaving the speculating up to others.

So far, Pirate has done what he said he was going to do. Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance but it lets you judge risks.



Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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April 24, 2012, 08:27:38 PM
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I think he could easily reduce the rate from 7% to 5% and still have enough in deposit to accomplish what he's doing. 5% interest a week is still far more than what other banks are paying. So why would he leave 2% on the table?

Market Share.

Could you expand on this? You mean increased barriers of entry (aka moat)? What market would this be?

I still can't figure out the Airline Industry business model, so lump me in with you.

The airline market is a long term losing market, it has an inherently bad business model.

For instance see "The intelligent Investor by Ben Graham (revisededition)" http://www.set.in.th/ben_graham_the_intelligent_investor.pdf
 'It is commonly accepted today that the cumulative earnings of the airline industry over its entire history have been negative. The lesson Graham is driving at is not that you should avoid buying airline stocks, but that you should never succumb to the “certainty” that any industry will outperform all others in the future.' (p21 footnote by Jason Zweig)

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April 24, 2012, 09:55:53 PM
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Could you expand on this? You mean increased barriers of entry (aka moat)? What market would this be?

Yes, 'moat' would be a good term. By keeping entry into, not only his model but other's models, he can maintain a lead during expansion.

First into a market doesn't always succeed if others figure it out to early. But if enough market share and trust has been accomplished then the first in can turn it into a powerhouse.

As to 'What market it would be', that is for others to speculate or pirate to explain.  But given the math and the finite amount of bitcoins, the end can be calculated. Remember, he pays in BTC not USD and it is relatively a small market.

He is paying 150% pps as stated earlier.

Someone wanted a list of ways to do it. I'll offer 'other' possibilities rather than the dark nefarious ones.

I stated that I would pay people 2¢ for 1¢ for pennies before 1982. With quantity, I might even do, 2.5¢ for 1¢. Why? Cause they are worth 3¢.

1. How much do you pay for Gas?  Is that what it really costs though? Buying Oil on the Spot Market would be way cheaper for you.        What determines the prices at the spot market? All the 'farmers' agree to a price they are willing to accept in payment for their work. What does the the 'broker' who paid these rates charge?

2. Leased Computing Power paid in BTC to miners but contracted in USD from one of the largest distributed computing project in existence.

3. Let us suppose Pirate controls 40K BTC in his account and pays 1% per day of 400 BTC back out to those investors. Now lets suppose he makes 2% per day off of those 40K BTC. How many BTC are created each day? 7,200 or so. So all he needs to get is 800 BTC of those per day on average to pay 1% to others and 1% to himself. But he would need to know where the blocks are going to hit. hmm...
What are the odds of accidentally calling the Pool and time of the next block to the minute? nah, nvm couldn't happen. But, hedging markets could net some 800 BTC if done appropriately.

4. and many, many others. Good and Bad from individuals, companies, and governments.

5. Any or all of the above.


But as to the OP. Pirate's End Game.

I assume Pirate's End Game is to make money for the longest period of time possible, and if that isn't everyones 'End Game', go home. The not so wise do this through schemes such as ponzies, pyramids, etc...  Something tells me Pirate is a little smarter than that. I am relatively certain that investors will get at least their principle back. That is all one can ask for today. But I can see a whole lot of people bitching when Pirate returns their money and says: 'No Thanks'.


I will tell you what I do know. Anyone with 5K BTC or more that wanted to invest with Pirate would know who he was, where he was, how his model works, and judge the risks for themselves and avoid posts like ours as a waste of time cause they don't make financial decision's from forum posts. Although, apparently, a lot of people do.









Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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April 24, 2012, 10:19:46 PM
 #24

1. How much do you pay for Gas?  Is that what it really costs though? Buying Oil on the Spot Market would be way cheaper for you.        What determines the prices at the spot market? All the 'farmers' agree to a price they are willing to accept in payment for their work. What does the the 'broker' who paid these rates charge?

I have no idea what you are saying here. That essentially pirate sold long term mining contracts? Seems unlikely at those prices, but even if, the obvious way to to fulfill his part of the contract would be on his own pool, rather than redirecting hashes through a massive proxy. So much easier, no middle men, etc. He could also increase his profits many fold by lowering his price to something like 120% PPS. ABC pool seems to do pretty nicely with 97%.

Quote
2. Leased Computing Power paid in BTC to miners but contracted in USD from one of the largest distributed computing project in existence.

I dont even think its possible to do anything with our mining shares other than create blocks, but even if this were possible, you would expect to see a non trivial change in the networks hashrate depending on whether gpumax is running or not. This isnt the case, ergo, those shares are used to produce bitcoin blocks.

Quote
3. Let us suppose Pirate controls 40K BTC in his account and pays 1% per day of 400 BTC back out to those investors. Now lets suppose he makes 2% per day off of those 40K BTC. How many BTC are created each day? 7,200 or so. So all he needs to get is 800 BTC of those per day on average to pay 1% to others and 1% to himself. But he would need to know where the blocks are going to hit. hmm...
What are the odds of accidentally calling the Pool and time of the next block to the minute? nah, nvm couldn't happen. But, hedging markets could net some 800 BTC if done appropriately.

again, Im not following. Care to explain?

Quote
I will tell you what I do know. Anyone with 5K BTC or more that wanted to invest with Pirate would know who he was, where he was, how his model works

And yet Ive not seen anyone claim to know that. Have you? I dont mean anyone spilling the beans, but just saying he knows the answers and therefore decided to invest. All Ive seen is people guessing and/or not caring and just relying on his trackrecord.


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April 24, 2012, 10:29:38 PM
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I will tell you what I do know. Anyone with 5K BTC or more that wanted to invest with Pirate would know who he was, where he was, how his model works

And yet Ive not seen anyone claim to know that. Have you? I dont mean anyone spilling the beans, but just saying he knows the answers and therefore decided to invest. All Ive seen is people guessing and/or not caring and just relying on his trackrecord.

Most people with lots of money tend to be discreet about it.
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April 24, 2012, 10:35:56 PM
 #26

Most people with lots of money tend to be discreet about it.

Discreet!?! Pffftttt......

I have 200k bitcoins! Suck on that egg.  Wink
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April 24, 2012, 10:44:49 PM
 #27

I will tell you what I do know. Anyone with 5K BTC or more that wanted to invest with Pirate would know who he was, where he was, how his model works, and judge the risks for themselves and avoid posts like ours as a waste of time cause they don't make financial decision's from forum posts. Although, apparently, a lot of people do.



How? One of Pirate's prerequisites was he wasn't going to share his business model. I posted in this thread because I was hoping people could point me in the general direction by logical deduction. Thus far I always thought he was being a loan shark (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loan_shark) or involved with loan sharks. But I'd think he'd have enough capital by now so I am exploring to come up with other explanations which are at least plausible Smiley

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April 24, 2012, 10:56:11 PM
 #28

P4Man,

 I am just pointing out other possibilities that are not nefarious as many assume. The answers you seek are buried on an Island somewhere and Pirate has the map.

People love to get the dirt and assume the worst. Often wrong.

Let us say what many think and see how ridiculous it is.

<foolishspeculation>Pirate runs a large underground drug cartel and/or laundering operation out of the State of Texas in the United States and pays a huge amount of interest of 7% per week. And he does so by advertising on a public forum that is searchable via a search bots like google. He responds regularly to customer service requests and continues to post on the forum and in IRC. He uses Trillian as an IRC client being the high felutin hacking crime lord he is. Oh, he likes Jimmy Buffet and apparently GoDaddy. We have to solve the GoDaddy problem. </foolishspeculation>

Geesh... I must now apologize. Sorry Pirate, don't send your goons after me. I don't want any horse heads either.

Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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April 24, 2012, 10:56:49 PM
 #29

I'm with the skeptics here.  It seems foolish to do a significant amount of business with an anonymous party.  There is no legal recourse for any dispute.  Traditionally when legal means are unavailabe violence becomes a significant tool of negotiation.  That is way too much work for me, especially with an imaginary partner.

You can always trust me. 1) because my handle is my real name.  2) well, because I trust me and 3) I'm not asking you for anything.

Sam
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April 25, 2012, 12:31:46 AM
 #30

It seems foolish to do a significant amount of business with an anonymous party.

almost everyone aboard the ship knows the captain's real name.

+1, all the trolls and speculators as to his downfall only think he is anonymous because they have never dealt with him, or at least not so in any significant amounts.

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April 25, 2012, 12:32:10 AM
 #31

There's one thing you forget about GPUMAX and that is all of the 'much more' talk......

You all assume that the reselling of GPU hashing time & rentals will apply to BITCOIN-ONLY.

Perhaps during the GPUMAX 'beta' Pirate is calculating exactly how much a Bitcoin Miner needs to make per/minute of GPU Lease time in order to re-sell that same hashing power for other ventures to the public ?

People need to stop being so narrow minded.

Do you honestly believe that Pirate has given anyone the impression that he is the 'put all of your eggs into one basket' kind of guy ?

To think that Bitcoin is the ONLY application for a service such as GPUMAX would be suicide for the developer(s) especially considering the time and money invested to bring such a platform online.

Think about that for a second Wink

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April 25, 2012, 01:27:04 AM
 #32

It seems the community has voted with their BTC and do not think pirateat40 is going to have an "end game" anytime soon.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

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April 25, 2012, 01:32:54 AM
 #33

It seems the community has voted with their BTC and do not think pirateat40 is going to have an "end game" anytime soon.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

Hrmmm...... All the debbie downers don't have any btc to bet.

Speaking of debbie downers, where is MPOE-PR when you need her?
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April 25, 2012, 06:47:33 AM
 #34

It seems the community has voted with their BTC and do not think pirateat40 is going to have an "end game" anytime soon.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

27 btc is not a lot. We'll see how this bet progresses.
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April 25, 2012, 07:22:05 AM
 #35

It seems the community has voted with their BTC and do not think pirateat40 is going to have an "end game" anytime soon.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

27 btc is not a lot. We'll see how this bet progresses.
27 BTC would earn more with the pirate than in the bet.

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April 25, 2012, 07:39:54 AM
 #36

I have 200k bitcoins! Suck on that egg.  Wink


Giga, do you know the details about what Pirate is doing?
If so, Im obviously not asking you to tell us what you know, since I assume thats confidential,  but Im curious if you know, or if instead you invested based on trust in the person rather than the businessmodel.

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April 25, 2012, 11:16:26 AM
 #37

I have 200k bitcoins! Suck on that egg.  Wink


Giga, do you know the details about what Pirate is doing?
If so, Im obviously not asking you to tell us what you know, since I assume thats confidential,  but Im curious if you know, or if instead you invested based on trust in the person rather than the businessmodel.

P4man,

I was attempting to troll copumpkin's level headed post. Seems I need to work on my trolling skills a bit....

Also, this thread is quite ridiculous.

Best,
gigavps
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April 25, 2012, 11:24:49 AM
 #38

I dont care who you attempted to troll Smiley, the question was sincere, and I would just as sincerely appreciate an answer.

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April 25, 2012, 11:38:20 AM
 #39

It seems the community has voted with their BTC and do not think pirateat40 is going to have an "end game" anytime soon.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

27 btc is not a lot. We'll see how this bet progresses.
27 BTC would earn more with the pirate than in the bet.

It probably is. Smiley

Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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April 25, 2012, 11:51:12 AM
 #40

maybe pirate has put up a disagree bet and will default on july 5th  Tongue

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