$10,000 in three years

[nope491]

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012     $12
31.12.2013     $60
31.12.2014    $300
31.12.2015  $1,500
31.12.2016  $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

I hope this prediction will come true

[Biodom]

something is wrong with your numbers
Dec31 2013 was ~$800, not $60

what exactly you are showing here? price in Dec2013 was ~$800 on any major exchange.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/
Your chart is of mtgox (how relevant is it?).

[zimmah]

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012     $12
31.12.2013     $60
31.12.2014    $300
31.12.2015  $1,500
31.12.2016  $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

I hope this prediction will come true

i think most of these numbers are on the low side.

[BittBurger]

Bitcoin was supposed to hit $10,000 in 2014 ....

yea, no.

-B-

[yokosan]

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.


The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

[Divinespark]

Draper may be biased and he may also be right. For him 18mn is money he can afford to lose, let's not forget,Let's all get the popcorn out and watch the action play out

[foozewol]

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.


The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

Seeing a value of 20,000$ would be great but I think that the next bubble will be lower than $10,000.

[yokosan]

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.


The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

Seeing a value of 20,000$ would be great but I think that the next bubble will be lower than $10,000.

That basically means it woudn't be an exponential bubble then, as an exponential bubble would have to have already started to stop before $10k.

[sehnye]

Bitcoin was supposed to hit $10,000 in 2014 ....

yea, no.

-B-

2014 isn't finished yet, no one can predict what's going to happen before the end of this year...

[yokosan]

Bubble 1 - June 2011 - $30
Bubble 2 - April 2013 - $250
Bubble 3 - November 2013 - $1,200

B1 -> 22 months -> B2 -> 7 months -> B3 -> 8.5 months... -> B4?

Bubble 1 - 2

250 - 30 = 220
220 / 22 months = $10/month

Bubble 2 - 3

1,200 - 250 = 950
950 / 7 months = $135/month

Bubble 3 - 4?

@$10/month so far = $1,280 - erm, no, not a bubble
@135/month so far = $2,347.5 - still not really a bubble

Soooo......

135/10 = 13.5
135 * 13.5 = $1,822.5

@$1,822.g/month so far = $16,691.25

$16,691.25 would be the price of the peak of the bubble if we were at the peak today, which we are not.

$10,000 is looking more pessimistic every day.

Conclusion

Tim draper is a bear

[Luckybit]

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July!  

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is.  

A lot of Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of miners, mining companies, mining pools, and it's increasingly a centralized situation.

This is an example why Proof of Stake is superior because if it's properly distributed it's not going to be mined which means no inflation to dilute the price. I would suggest you head out of Proof of Work if you don't like volatility and head into something else.

[ChuckBuck]

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July!  

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is.  

A lot of Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of miners, mining companies, mining pools, and it's increasingly a centralized situation.

This is an example why Proof of Stake is superior because if it's properly distributed it's not going to be mined which means no inflation to dilute the price. I would suggest you head out of Proof of Work if you don't like volatility and head into something else.

I like Peercoin as much as the next Crypto enthusiast, but I don't think it's going anywhere, anytime soon.  Unless it's somehow merge mined along with BTC, there's just no adoption or acceptance of it.  I mean $117,880,812 market cap!  That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things...

I do love it's properties and the fact you can mint it, it's 1% inflation rate, and unlimited supply.  Just don't see it, or the other Proof of Stake alts (Blackcoin, Reddcoin, Tekcoin, NXT, etc) reaching their potential.  They each have their individual quirks and underlying technology benefits, but unless they somehow piggyback off of Bitcoin, doesn't seem like they'll truly take off.

[Dafar]

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

[Wilhelm]

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

I know the feeling

[giveBTCpls]

The Winklevii has predicted a price of 40.000$ per coin and "that would be conservative" and "it would happen faster than everyone knows if it happens". I somewhat agree. I think these big price surges happen out of nowhere and no one really expects it. It's like the buying mania happens as people stop questioning obivous thing even if they know it makes total sense in the back of their mind but fear stops them from buying. This is exactly what happened with 1K bubble and it will happen the same in the next rally, each time supported by more solid facts,

[CryptoCarmen]

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

lol sell!!!!!!

Go on, help others get rich one day. Selll!!!!

[Buo]

Bubble 1 - June 2011 - $30
Bubble 2 - April 2013 - $250
Bubble 3 - November 2013 - $1,200

B1 -> 22 months -> B2 -> 7 months -> B3 -> 8.5 months... -> B4?

Bubble 1 - 2

250 - 30 = 220
220 / 22 months = $10/month

Bubble 2 - 3

1,200 - 250 = 950
950 / 7 months = $135/month

Bubble 3 - 4?

@$10/month so far = $1,280 - erm, no, not a bubble
@135/month so far = $2,347.5 - still not really a bubble

Soooo......

135/10 = 13.5
135 * 13.5 = $1,822.5

@$1,822.g/month so far = $16,691.25

$16,691.25 would be the price of the peak of the bubble if we were at the peak today, which we are not.

$10,000 is looking more pessimistic every day.

Conclusion

Tim draper is a bear

So are you saying that $10,000 is a pessimistic speculation?
I definitely agree with you, but I was really close to sell them all some weeks ago...