[ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains

[Arv1e]

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here

Believe me, if you invested at date you registered (2010-09-18) $100 USD and bought 1,600 BTC @ $0.06 then BUY AND HOLD you have more than a couple of thousands here

My sentiments precisley. Something doesn't quite add up and I have filed it in the "Too Good To Be True" folder but maybe I am being cynical :-)

[1713999639]

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[damnek]

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here

Believe me, if you invested at date you registered (2010-09-18) $100 USD and bought 1,600 BTC @ $0.06 then BUY AND HOLD you have more than a couple of thousands here

My sentiments precisley. Something doesn't quite add up and I have filed it in the "Too Good To Be True" folder but maybe I am being cynical :-)

Maybe he means a couple of thousand BTC?

[Odalv]

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here

Believe me, if you invested at date you registered (2010-09-18) $100 USD and bought 1,600 BTC @ $0.06 then BUY AND HOLD you have more than a couple of thousands here

My sentiments precisley. Something doesn't quite add up and I have filed it in the "Too Good To Be True" folder but maybe I am being cynical :-)

Maybe he means a couple of thousand BTC?

Maybe :-) ("Unfortunately" poor guy with 100 x a couple of thousand BTC)

[Odalv]

He did not outperform B&H strategy.
He is in order of magnitudes below B&H if not in loss.

[cypherdoc]

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here

Believe me, if you invested at date you registered (2010-09-18) $100 USD and bought 1,600 BTC @ $0.06 then BUY AND HOLD you have more than a couple of thousands here

My sentiments precisley. Something doesn't quite add up and I have filed it in the "Too Good To Be True" folder but maybe I am being cynical :-)

exactly.  given how long S3052 has been around since $0.06, he should be rich given his claims of trading outperformance and having picked the 1200 top with a 100% BTC portfolio.  he says he's outperformed buy and hold.  those of us who have used buy and hold since that time are up many thousands of %  and are indeed rich even despite the pullback.  yet he claims he's outperformed buy and hold through day trading, so he should be even richer than rich.

doesn't add up at all.  it never has. just look at the title of his sub thread.

[fusioncoins]

Why Monero and not another one?

I'd suggest you to decrease USD and increase GOLD ad BTC.
If you invest 2% in Cryptos at least 1.8 should go on BTC. IMHO

[lyth0s]

Guys he may have used his earnings to pay for expenses over the years and thus has "only" a few thousand to invest now. Having a small investment portfolio now does not exclude him from making bank on his investments but then spending them prior to this thread.

[S3052]

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

1. That's exactly what he is postulating. Deflation.

2. Maybe he wants to preserve his capital more and tries to minimize risk by reducing exposure during certain periods. Comparatively, he certainly isn't that risk averse, given that he stated that he held almost 100% in BTC before. You know, trading?

Blitz, hows life? Long time no "see". I just realized it has been five years since we started here..!

And indeed, you are right. It is not abou clinging to BTC just because we love it. It is solely about how to best trade it. And apart from some short term opportunities, I do not see any reason to hold or accumulate BTC unless certain technical criteria will have been met.

[windjc]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

Well BBR would be a better option than Monero. Its 1/15 the current market cap, better tech, and is about to get a lot of press for a lot of reasons, some of them obvious to those of use in the alt crypto world and some of them not so obvious.

[windjc]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

Not to be an ass here, but if you were around 5 years ago, how the heck are you not "rich" or at least close to it?

I think you should share this as a cautionary tale in your thread for full disclosure.

[Wary]

4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

Prices of goods measured in what? Not in dollars, since dollar will decline too. In gold? If price of everything, but gold is going to crash, then your hypothesis can be simplified to the: price of gold will rally.

[S3052]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

Not to be an ass here, but if you were around 5 years ago, how the heck are you not "rich" or at least close to it?

I think you should share this as a cautionary tale in your thread for full disclosure.

It seems like there is confusion.
I have never and will also not here disclose my wealth to anyone.

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

But this thread is about a percentage example portfolio approach.

[BitCoinNutJob]

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

If your net worth is over a million, 1% in BTC is more than enough.  

Monetising the portfolio is irrelavent. It's 1%. Also he is suggesting he had ALL his money in Bitcoin and managed to sell at EXACTLY the peak.

If I had sold like that, taking into account the current value I would have re invested more than 1% considering we are at cirace $475.

Seems to me it's all a lot of hot air to get people to buy into his website for advice u8nless he has a crystal ball and knows EXACTLY when the trough will botoom out of course!

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

The forecast doesnt out perform buy and hold that such a misleading statement....  If you are a experienced trader maybe it could be helpful vs buy and hold.  When i subscribed i remember suggestions from your service of picking up long term holding positions @ around $900 (on the way back down from $1200 this was).  I also remember no predictions of the china bubble price boom, you guys didnt even give a slight clue we were going up to to insane prices like $1200.  Even that guy fontas in BTC-e was calling for a $1300 top iirc - this was when we were at like $200!

Newbies or inexperienced traders should always buy and hold if investing in bitcoin < debunk that.  

[FNG]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

[CoinBurner]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  
so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy  

[S3052]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  
so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy  

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

[Odalv]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  
so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy  

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC  * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD ->  "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

[S3052]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  
so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy  

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC  * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD ->  "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

What are you trying to prove here? As I mentioned, when BTC were worth much less, I donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. This is why the real numbers are nowhere near your numbers and I need to work hard everyday.

[Odalv]

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  
so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy  

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC  * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD ->  "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

What are you trying to prove here? As I mentioned, when BTC were worth much less, I donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. This is why the real numbers are nowhere near your numbers and I need to work hard everyday.

OK,  you donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. What about BUY AND HOLD (in paper wallet), did you OUTPERFORM this strategy ? Did you even make 1% compared to B&H ?

[S3052]

My personal outperformance was 1.5-2x vs. buy and holding bitcoins.

BitcoinBullbear.com forecast performance tracking can be found on the website.

And from now on, you can track my portfolio performance live here in this thread.

Since the start, bitcoin is down as predicted and thats why I only keep 1%.