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Author Topic: Honeymoon savings... hold or sell?  (Read 5800 times)
noob2001
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September 19, 2014, 05:28:55 PM
 #41

Just hold.......  Or sell a small %.

Its just bad timing and bitcoin will be above $1000 soon enough.
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BidcoinBernd
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September 19, 2014, 06:28:46 PM
 #42

bitcoin will be above $1000 soon enough.

People said that already back in january... thanks for the laugh.
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September 19, 2014, 06:31:54 PM
 #43

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.
CoinDiver
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September 19, 2014, 06:46:52 PM
 #44

I made the decision in January to save for my (end of September) honeymoon in bitcoin. In the last few months, I'm getting slaughtered. I've held strong and not sold a bitcent that wasn't required. It's getting close enough (2 weeks), that I'm starting to worry...

So, the question is... sell now, or sell in two weeks?

I do not envy anybody in this situation. Honestly, you've taken pretty close to the full brunt of the downturn at this point. I imagine we'll see somewhere around $340 to $350 following a flash crash... then we'll jump up. But, that's tempting fate. I really have to believe that there is a better reentry point.

So, what am I saying? You can hold and you'll probably see $450 range, again... maybe even $500s (higher than that is really questionable at this point). That said, there probably will be a better reentry point. You have to ask yourself whether you are good enough with TA to time and price that point.

Sorry for your loss, brother.


Thank you. I sold this morning at $398. That hurt. I lost about 40% of what I saved. I sold because it was the low end of what I estimated I could do the trip for. I started saving in January. Bought from $850 all the way down. I knew this was a risk. One of the major reasons I did it was because I knew it would be harder to touch the money for bills and whatever, if it was in BTC. After panic selling 1/3rd of my btc during the crash of 2013, I know better than to sell, ever.

Regardless, we'll still have a hell of a time. Just have to be a little conscientious of costs.

http://mises.org/daily/3229
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Newbie1022
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September 19, 2014, 06:50:55 PM
 #45

I made the decision in January to save for my (end of September) honeymoon in bitcoin. In the last few months, I'm getting slaughtered. I've held strong and not sold a bitcent that wasn't required. It's getting close enough (2 weeks), that I'm starting to worry...

So, the question is... sell now, or sell in two weeks?

I do not envy anybody in this situation. Honestly, you've taken pretty close to the full brunt of the downturn at this point. I imagine we'll see somewhere around $340 to $350 following a flash crash... then we'll jump up. But, that's tempting fate. I really have to believe that there is a better reentry point.

So, what am I saying? You can hold and you'll probably see $450 range, again... maybe even $500s (higher than that is really questionable at this point). That said, there probably will be a better reentry point. You have to ask yourself whether you are good enough with TA to time and price that point.

Sorry for your loss, brother.


Thank you. I sold this morning at $398. That hurt. I lost about 40% of what I saved. I sold because it was the low end of what I estimated I could do the trip for. I started saving in January. Bought from $850 all the way down. I knew this was a risk. One of the major reasons I did it was because I knew it would be harder to touch the money for bills and whatever, if it was in BTC. After panic selling 1/3rd of my btc during the crash of 2013, I know better than to sell, ever.

Regardless, we'll still have a hell of a time. Just have to be a little conscientious of costs.

In the end, it's just money. Most of us never have much of that, anyways. This really is an incredible game for losing money, isn't it? Even the folks shorting (I count myself in those ranks) have found a way to lose money throughout on jumps up and down.

Enjoy the honeymoon. That's what really matters. Love, who you have around you, and the time you get to spend. Money comes and goes... that's what it does. She's lucky to have you.

Cheers!
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September 19, 2014, 06:51:38 PM
 #46

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

http://mises.org/daily/3229
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Newbie1022
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September 19, 2014, 07:00:47 PM
 #47

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.

CoinDiver
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September 19, 2014, 07:46:09 PM
 #48

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.

I agree with you. I still don't agree that it's a bubble. Maybe it's confirmation bias, but I think there are other factors that explain this. First, paypal will cause a massive increase in sell pressure... which is likely being factored in at the moment. Then you have the alibaba ipo, and significant chinese investment. If they're looking to get out for the time being, alibaba gives them all the more reason to do so. I think the market is factoring in the paypal adoption, and we'll actually gains when paypal actually implements. It is almost certainly confirmation bias... but that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong. IMO it's still worth the upshot, and I'll still be buying every chance I get.

http://mises.org/daily/3229
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Newbie1022
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September 19, 2014, 07:54:56 PM
 #49

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.

I agree with you. I still don't agree that it's a bubble. Maybe it's confirmation bias, but I think there are other factors that explain this. First, paypal will cause a massive increase in sell pressure... which is likely being factored in at the moment. Then you have the alibaba ipo, and significant chinese investment. If they're looking to get out for the time being, alibaba gives them all the more reason to do so. I think the market is factoring in the paypal adoption, and we'll actually gains when paypal actually implements. It is almost certainly confirmation bias... but that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong. IMO it's still worth the upshot, and I'll still be buying every chance I get.

I am almost certain that it is confirmation bias, brother. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin is valueless or that it isn't worth more than it was worth before these events. The thing is that the price that you see in a market isn't the current price, but very often the speculative price (what will this be worth in X months). That's why bad news registers hard whereas good news is almost invariably baked in.

So, now transport yourself back to a time a year or two ago... is it possible today for Bitcoin to be all of the things that people hoped, and even expected, it would be when they were looking off into the future a couple years ago? The answer is no. Public adoption (not industry adoption, but actual consumers) has slacked off, there are too many persistent trust issues (scams, Gox, hackers, etc... remember most people are amazingly computer illiterate), there will almost certainly be competition from Apple (even if that product that absorbs a lot of the customer base is, to a technologically literate person radically different than Bitcoin), and the New York rules are tantamount to a death sentence for many U.S. targeting BTC companies (and, even if it is not, it forces them to not hold profits in Bitcoin which just reinforces sell pressure).

Additionally, what will change that will stop Paypal and others from massively increasing sell pressure? Are they suddenly going to keep their profits in BTC? Are they going to do that in a down market? At minimum, this confirms that there has to be further legs down.

So, I guess what I am trying to say is that Bitcoin (or something similar) will probably survive and at some point in the future thrive. At the present moment, though, there's no need to be a martyr. You know that even if it stops dropping today that in the next few months the downside risk outweighs the upside (and that calculus may very well change if we confirm a bottom).

So just be careful.
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September 19, 2014, 07:58:08 PM
 #50

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.



Absolutely no reason whatsoever why bitcoin will not rise again. In fact every single odious little toad telling you what a bad decision you made is banking on it.

I hope you have a fab honeymoon!
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September 19, 2014, 08:02:05 PM
 #51

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.



Absolutely no reason whatsoever why bitcoin will not rise again. In fact every single odious little toad telling you what a bad decision you made is banking on it.

I hope you have a fab honeymoon!

This. But do be careful to manage expectations and be wary of panic anything... panic selling or buying... look for price targets, write out a plan, and be cautious. Also, although you are investing as opposed to trading, having a stop loss about 10% off moving forward (not even a narrow one... just something to capture a portion of a cataclysm) might not be the worst idea.
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September 19, 2014, 08:28:00 PM
 #52

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?
You got married. Did you read my earlier post? You have a 50% chance to lose everything you own and most of what you earn for many years going forward. That's a way higher risk than bitcoin. Nobody ever think they will be the ones getting hit with divorce papers. That happens to other people.

There is no bubble.
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September 19, 2014, 08:39:47 PM
 #53

Look at the positive side: your marriage is probably over.

Fortune cannot take away what she has not given.
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September 19, 2014, 08:45:28 PM
 #54

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?
You got married. Did you read my earlier post? You have a 50% chance to lose everything you own and most of what you earn for many years going forward. That's a way higher risk than bitcoin. Nobody ever think they will be the ones getting hit with divorce papers. That happens to other people.

well, marriage and religion has a lot to do with each other.  Most people that get divorced don't have strong religious beliefs.  So this is over generalizing.
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September 19, 2014, 08:47:00 PM
 #55

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?
You got married. Did you read my earlier post? You have a 50% chance to lose everything you own and most of what you earn for many years going forward. That's a way higher risk than bitcoin. Nobody ever think they will be the ones getting hit with divorce papers. That happens to other people.

well, marriage and religion has a lot to do with each other.  Most people that get divorced don't have strong religious beliefs.  So this is over generalizing.
It's statistics, buddy. I'd be open to look at statistics based on your theory (if any such exist, which I deeply hope is the case, and moreso that you have links to them), but even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

There is no bubble.
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September 19, 2014, 09:33:48 PM
 #56

even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

Exactly. You also don't know how we define our marriage.

I've already been married and divorced once. I know the risks and have taken necessary precautions.

http://mises.org/daily/3229
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September 19, 2014, 09:36:28 PM
 #57

You are screwed Smiley But if some good news come like paypal add BTC or something like APPLE add BTC the bitcoin will be back to $1000'th


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Wilhelm
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September 19, 2014, 09:39:52 PM
 #58

even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

Exactly. You also don't know how we define our marriage.

I've already been married and divorced once. I know the risks and have taken necessary precautions.

Your previous divorce was due to the last bitcoin crash? Tongue

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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September 19, 2014, 09:43:10 PM
 #59

even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

Exactly. You also don't know how we define our marriage.

I've already been married and divorced once. I know the risks and have taken necessary precautions.
Well, if your ass is covered then godspeed and so on. Still, having been through it once why would you risk it again?

There is no bubble.
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September 19, 2014, 10:10:57 PM
 #60

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?
You got married. Did you read my earlier post? You have a 50% chance to lose everything you own and most of what you earn for many years going forward. That's a way higher risk than bitcoin. Nobody ever think they will be the ones getting hit with divorce papers. That happens to other people.

well, marriage and religion has a lot to do with each other.  Most people that get divorced don't have strong religious beliefs.  So this is over generalizing.
It's statistics, buddy. I'd be open to look at statistics based on your theory (if any such exist, which I deeply hope is the case, and moreso that you have links to them), but even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

Nope, it's bullshit. I know doing research and fact checking isn't big around here, but 50% of marriages do not end in divorce. Someone, decades ago, who was particularly bad at statistics and math (he'd fit in well on this forum) came to the conclusion after looking at a government statistic that there were something like 2.4 million marriages in 1980, and 1.2 million divorces.

Of course... the 1.2 million divorces could have been anyone married over the last 50 years or more, not just the people married that year... derp.
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