KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2435 blocks

[kano]

...
Thank You!

May I ask what CDF[ERL] means and how it is calculated and exactly what do you mean by "the probability of getting worse than that result?"

Compared to what result? luck? % difficulty? CDF itself?

Sorry if it is obvious to everyone else, (newbie) but what does the %luck really mean anything as far as the average miner looking at stats if CDF[ERL} is the real key?

CDF[Erl] is the Erlang distribution of the CDF
The value I show allows you to get the probability of getting a result worse than the data shown.

CDF means Cumulative Distribution Function
What it comes from is the integral under the curve of the probability results of a Poission Distributed random event.

In simple terms, a graph of the chances of finding a block looks like a bell shaped curve.
So you have a curve that shows that the chance of finding a block with zero hashes is zero, the chance of finding a block with infinite hashes is zero, and the chances of whatever in-between vary from close to zero, up to some limit then back down - it's a bell shaped curve.
Here's the Wikipedia page about that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function

So anyway, if say you wanted to know how often would you get a worse block than Diff 200%, the CDF can tell you that.
It adds up the area under the bell shaped curve up to 200%
The CDF for 200% is 0.86466471676339 i.e. 86.47% of the time, you expect blocks to be below 200%.
So how about worse than 200%? That's 1/(1-CDF) = 7.389 so that means, on average over a large number of events (blocks) you'd expect about 1 in 7.4 blocks to be over 200%

Now that's all good and fine except, well, that's just looking at a single block.
As I mentioned, a single sample will tell you next to nothing about a large set of events.

In comes the Erlang distribution - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution
This lets you determine something similar to the CDF but for a number of events.
So as the pool stats page currently says:

Code:

Last 25 Blocks  13.4wks  118.13%  123.08%  0.8219  84.65%  103.25%

We see that the average Diff of those 25 blocks was 118.13%
So what's the chances that you'd get worse than that?
CDF[Erl] for 118.13% for 25 events is 0.8219
Using the earlier calculation 1/(1-CDF[Erl]) = 5.615 so that means, on average over a large number of events (blocks) you'd expect about 1 in 5.6 sets of 25 blocks to average worse (higher) than 118.13%

[1713490347]

1713490347

[1713490347]

1713490347

[chauski01]

Hi, 1st time poster, long time lurker for kano (2 months  ).  Just saw the kanobtc twitter page and saw only a few members there.  Love the community here in bitcointalk but just wondering why only 16 active in twitter...

I hope we can all be active there and share tweets from the pool, especially the 10 BTC promo to spread the word so we can increase the pool's hash rate..

[chauski01]

I'm surprised these smaller guys aren't going for that 50 TH/s reward.

The block must have distracted everyone. I'm not sure how man smaller miners pay attention to the forum and read it though........so in that case, let's increase the qualifications to 1TH/s - 15 TH/s and see if that attracts a few more.

Someone has to have an easy analogy they can share that helps them understand.

B-B-B-B-B-BLOCK MAN, BLOCK MAN, BLOCK MAAAAAN!!

love the line "so in that case, let's increase the qualifications to 1TH/s - 15 TH/s and see if that attracts a few more. "
i second the motion! 

BTCBTCBTC MINE ON @ KANOPOOL

[padrinogtr]

...'PASS THE HASH' GIVEAWAY! qualifications and time-frames, I'll highlight them below in red...

- You must be already mining on Kano with a combined hashpower below 10THs between ~500GHs and ~1THs (on the Pool Stats page).
- Send me a direct [Private] message with your user name, if you qualify and wish to participate. Do not reply to this with your user name, as we don't want to flood the forum, unless it is for a general comment.
- I will randomly draw one qualifying user tomorrow Monday midnight CET Monday evening EST. I will then announce the 'winner' and the S9 Avalon6 (3.5THs) will run under its user name until Sunday midnight CET Sunday evening EST.
- Should the machine drop in hashpower or encounter any technical issues, I will not be responsible and liable to make up for it.

Thanks for the continued interest!

Well, folks... This is the most unanticipated announcement: The lucky winner is... No one...

Yeah, exactly. I was surprised too. No one took me up on my offer, so I'm hereby recinding my invitation.

Trust me, I was more than willing to do what I said, but, apparently, this is the way it was meant to be, so...

Mine on!!!

not to mention the 3TH i was gonna add
o well
MINE ON!!!!

[gaud]

...
but u can only get lets say lucky to the tune off 7% out of hundred u can get 900% unlucky lol and even if we mine 2 blocks in a row it could never make up for not mining a block for a month

The stats show otherwise
Last 500 blocks includes the 928% block and the 875% block and the last month of blocks.
Yet the luck for the last 500 blocks, that includes all those, is ... 99.73%

o yes the math always works out as logically expected that's the beauty of math but my statement speaks to the emotion of why people worry more about the negative it is because it CAN be so much worse then the positive can be good 

[padrinogtr]

Hi, 1st time poster, long time lurker for kano (2 months  ).  Just saw the kanobtc twitter page and saw only a few members there.  Love the community here in bitcointalk but just wondering why only 16 active in twitter...

I hope we can all be active there and share tweets from the pool, especially the 10 BTC promo to spread the word so we can increase the pool's hash rate..

that twitter account is less than a week old that's the reason. and so is the Facebook page and group.

[Shazam!!!]

Hi, 1st time poster, long time lurker for kano (2 months  ).  Just saw the kanobtc twitter page and saw only a few members there.  Love the community here in bitcointalk but just wondering why only 16 active in twitter...

I hope we can all be active there and share tweets from the pool, especially the 10 BTC promo to spread the word so we can increase the pool's hash rate..

The Twitter page, has only been active for a few days. There is a few people here, that have taken it upon themselves, to help
promote Kano's Pool. Anyone who would like to contribute towards marketing Kano's Pool, is more than welcome, to give us
a hand.

[soma909]

Quick question - going to mine on under-clocked S5 (about 900 GH/S) to build up a few shares while I wait for an S9 to come on-line. Will the 900 GH/S get me above the dust threshold?

Thanks

[soma909]

Does this mean I have  8 x 100 USD coupons to buy more of their shit?  or am I reading that wrong?

Yep, you have 8 to use, 1 per unit purchased.  You can also donate them if you wish to the email address of another Bitmain account holder.
EDIT: You cannot use any of these coupons to buy just a PSU...

grrr i got no coupons :/

I've received an avalanche of these today - $100, $125 and $200 varieties.

Happy to take a couple off your hands About to make a small batch buy.

[soma909]

Hi, 1st time poster, long time lurker for kano (2 months  ).  Just saw the kanobtc twitter page and saw only a few members there.  Love the community here in bitcointalk but just wondering why only 16 active in twitter...

I hope we can all be active there and share tweets from the pool, especially the 10 BTC promo to spread the word so we can increase the pool's hash rate..

The Twitter page, has only been active for a few days. There is a few people here, that have taken it upon themselves, to help
promote Kano's Pool. Anyone who would like to contribute towards marketing Kano's Pool, is more than welcome, to give us
a hand.

Following - any groups you think might be worth promoting the pool on?

[WBF1]

...
but u can only get lets say lucky to the tune off 7% out of hundred u can get 900% unlucky lol and even if we mine 2 blocks in a row it could never make up for not mining a block for a month

The stats show otherwise
Last 500 blocks includes the 928% block and the 875% block and the last month of blocks.
Yet the luck for the last 500 blocks, that includes all those, is ... 99.73%

o yes the math always works out as logically expected that's the beauty of math but my statement speaks to the emotion of why people worry more about the negative it is because it CAN be so much worse then the positive can be good  

Yeah I mean technically I suppose there is no upper limit to how much work a miner or a pool can do before finding a block, while there is technically a lower limit. Not sure what the luck number would be for a block solved on the first share of work done. Would love to find out though.

But the sample size of the data set of shares is so big that you're unlikely to get into a situation of impossibly high luck over a long term. And if you do, there's probably something else at play, like technical issues or bad actors somewhere.

[sruyle]

I see Canaan is steadily rising in hash rate. Going for that 3BTC. GO Canaan! Get it.

[Geronimoe]

Canaan must be swapping out all the 741,s for 821,s  

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Hi, 1st time poster, long time lurker for kano (2 months  ).  Just saw the kanobtc twitter page and saw only a few members there.  Love the community here in bitcointalk but just wondering why only 16 active in twitter...

I hope we can all be active there and share tweets from the pool, especially the 10 BTC promo to spread the word so we can increase the pool's hash rate..

that twitter account is less than a week old that's the reason. and so is the Facebook page and group.

Also so few because many like me could care less about 'share your thought of the moment' social media such as Twitter, snapchat, Facebook etc.

[lok8nusa]

Quick question - going to mine on under-clocked S5 (about 900 GH/S) to build up a few shares while I wait for an S9 to come on-line. Will the 900 GH/S get me above the dust threshold?

Thanks

Quick answer: yeah, for a little while longer.

[minergain.com]

I'm surprised these smaller guys aren't going for that 50 TH/s reward.

The block must have distracted everyone. I'm not sure how man smaller miners pay attention to the forum and read it though........so in that case, let's increase the qualifications to 1TH/s - 15 TH/s and see if that attracts a few more.

Someone has to have an easy analogy they can share that helps them understand.

B-B-B-B-B-BLOCK MAN, BLOCK MAN, BLOCK MAAAAAN!!

love the line "so in that case, let's increase the qualifications to 1TH/s - 15 TH/s and see if that attracts a few more. "
i second the motion! 

BTCBTCBTC MINE ON @ KANOPOOL

Yay - now I have a chance since I have an S9!

[childofGod]

Hey all, first post here.  I'm a noob working on building a small farm in Minnesota in an old dry cleaner with some excess power.  I have accumulated some coupons at Bitmain that I won't be able to use, so I thought I would offer them up to the Kano family.  I would only ask that you solemnly swear to use them for purchases you will mine yourself and point to Kano.  I will happily accept a couple bones thrown my way if you're so inclined, but I'm not expecting it.  Just yesterday they released coupons to everyone (clearly they are sitting on inventory) so maybe you don't need these.  But if you were planning on ordering a pile of S9s this would save you some dough.  Email me at smallmax at geemail with your email and I'll figure out how to transfer them to you.

[gaud]

woot i got my coupon
sad they all expire b4 the 7nm chip machines will be rolling off the line

[rifleman74]

Canaan must be swapping out all the 741,s for 821,s  

821 and 841's.

[minergain.com]

Yes you do!!   Really, we all should understood it quite well. So, here's the deal......

I'm going to up the stakes and hold you accountable with a new promotion lol!!!  ***** 50 TH/s *****

I want to see how well the small miners understand this and can explain it on a level where YOU(and others, including myself) fully understand it. I want that light bulb to go off and have ZERO doubt about how we are getting paid for our shares and I will donate 50 TH/s for a period of 5 days to a lucky winner.

My rules:

1- You have to have been mining on Kano's Pool with a hash rate between 1 and 10 TH/s
2- You have to have been mining with this hash for at least the last 5 blocks (to be confirmed by Kano)
3- You have to submit your answer in response to this quote and give 2 working examples including the payouts calculated.
4- padrinogtr will have to be able to explain his new understanding with an example in response to the submitted answer and confirmed by KANO.

The 5 day 50 TH/s award will start as soon as I am able to see confirmation and have access to my controllers. I will of course need a worker name.
I understand this is dependent on some cooperation from others, but hey it's 50 TH/s on the line and I'm currently only running about 70 TH/s, so it's a big deal to me.

5 days - 50 TH/s .... don't let us down padrinogtr!!!!!!

*Of course, this is for fun and in the event of a hash rate failure, I will not be obligated to make it up as noted in prior promotions. I hope I'm not leaving out any details. I will stay active with the announcements as well as open to hearing some feedback or details that should be edited.

I really don't want to piss off the head honcho either, so if this is crossing any lines or boundaries, please let me know!

Thanks everyone and MINE ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT: I may have noticed my first mistake and I'm going to attempt to adjust this. Unless padrinogtr really needed this breakdown, I may tweak the rules to the best description from a miner who meets the first 3 rules, but who's answer reaches 10 votes for the best answer. What do you think?

***NOTE*** This competition is not yet valid until I get the "OK" from Kano and will get the details sorted out. SO SAVE YOUR ANSWERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE PLEASE!!

Thanks for bumping up your max hash rate to include me...  I have not clue how well I will do since I have only been mining since August 2017 so I guess we will see..  Since we are going for easier to explain, I think it is best to switch to something tangible.  Since I like cookies, this analogy will be 1 cookie = 1 share.  The 5nd is 5 times the difficulty.  Lets keep it simple and say that the difficulty is 20, so 5nd is 100.  There is one cookie jar that can hold exactly 100 cookies which everyone is sharing.  This is a special cookie jar where the bottom kicks out and throws away old cookies when another goes in (so the cookies are always fresh).   For this example, lets say there are 3 miners working on filling the cookie jar.  Each miner is making their own cookie type at different rates.  The long term miner (miner 1) can make 1 peanut butter per minute.  Our miner (miner 2) can make 3 chocolate chip cookies per minute and the third miner (miner 3) can make 6 ginger snaps per minute.  Obviously if I ate all these cookies, I would not like cookies any longer, but you get the idea...
 
To keep it a little simpler, we will assume the block reward is 100 BTC, that cookie jar is initially filled only with peanut butter cookies (100 of them) and that full cookies are submitted once per minute – even though an S9 miner can do 13.5 Trillion hashes per second and the difficulty is also in the trillions, so in reality, our cookies are broken up into billions of pieces per second - but who wants to eat crumbs.  

So when we start mining, the cookie jar is full of other miner’s cookies and none of ours (so sad – no BTC if a block is found).  After each minute, miner 1 adds 1 peanut butter cookie to the jar, we add 3 chocolate chip cookies and miner 3 adds 6 ginger snaps and 10 old peanut butter cookies drop out of the bottom to the trash (or maybe I ate them).  Lets assume we find a block after minute 5.  There have been 5 peanut butter cookies, 15 chocolate chips and 30 ginger snaps added (and 50 old peanut butter cookies removed) so there are a total of 100 – 50 + 5 = 55 peanut butter cookies which is 55% of the jar, 15 chocolate chips which is 15% and 30 ginger snaps which is 30% of the jar.  So 100 BTC  gets distributed based on the percentages (actually 99.1 BTC gets distributed since Kano gets .9%).

If another block gets hit 5 minutes later, there have been a total of 10 peanut butter cookies added (5 new ones), 30 chocolate chips and 60 ginger snaps added (and all 100 of the old peanut butter cookies have been removed) so there are a total of 100 – 100 + 10 = 10 peanut butter cookies which is 10% of the jar, 30 chocolate chips which is 30% and 60 ginger snaps which is 60% of the jar.  So the second 100 BTC gets distributed based on the percentages.

Assuming that these miners continue to contribute the exact same amount with no new miners, when a cookie is added, a cookie is removed so the percentages stay the same going forward.  When that happens, you are getting the most payout you can.  Obviously if your miner goes down for a few minutes, you wont submit cookies so your percentage goes down a little but not a lot.  Also as more miners submit cookies to the jar, your percentage of the jar goes down (and your old cookies fall out a little faster).  The other thing that messes with all this is that when the difficulty goes up every couple weeks, the cookie jar gets bigger – and the cookies that fell out from the smaller jar get added back into the bottom of the jar in the order they left (so the analogy is not as good then).

So in my view of PPLNS, it really has nothing to do with “ramping” at all.  It is more about how many cookies you have put in the jar compared to everyone else.  So if I were to win the 50TH for 5 days, there would simply be a more chocolate chip cookies added to the top of jar for those 5 days over and above my 13.5TH that I have been adding to the mix since August.

Well, that is my attempt!!!  Hopefully I am not wrong and confuse everyone even more…