Hi, Please help me with the math here...
so as of today 4/11/2021 assuming avg 100% difficulty, and assuming today's total bitcoin hashrate, and assume our pool is running at 8PHs/sec... how many blocks should we find over a year? ( and yes i realize it's all a sliding math thing so it technically changes every day).
But based on rough math what does that number look like currently?
2 ? maybe 3 ?
Curious to see if I'm even close.
Also welcome to all new miners or congrats to whoever added to their farm!
Easiest way to check this at any time, is the web link - I wrote MANY years ago and update on occasion:
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php... and just press enter.
It fills in the pool hash rate with the current KanoPool hash rate when you first visit.
The lines of interest (at the moment) are:
Pool PH/s: 8.866 PH/s
Pool Average Blocks per Day: 0.0077 blocks
So 1/0.0077 = 129.87 means: we have a 1 in 129.87 chance of finding a block each day at the current Bitcoin network difficulty.
Now the mistake that
most people fall into is that you can't actually say that we'd expect one block every 129.87 days
Since difficulty changes every 2 weeks, it's not linear at all.
If you extend that "1 in 129.87 chance" to say "oh that's 2.81 blocks a year", it's not actually correct.
Though it may give you some idea about how often we might find a block, it's definitely not an accurate representation of the expected number of blocks.
A simple example to explain this:
Say you want to roll a 6 on a dice.
You're allowed to roll it 2 times today, then once every day after today.
What is the expected number of days to roll a 6?
The correct answer is 5 days 2+1+1+1+1 = 6
But if you take today's value of '2' rolls a day and use that to calculate it - you get, incorrectly, 3 days (since 2x3 = 6)
This dice example is exactly the same as incorrectly saying "today's difficulty for the next 365 days means 2.81 blocks a year."
The problem of course is that we don't know what the difficultly will be in 2 weeks.
However, we do know that for the next 5-6 months it will most likely go up since most miner pre-orders are around 5-6 months.
Thus if the pool stayed at 8.866 PH/s for the next year, then we expect less than 2.81 blocks.
Lastly, and of most importance, is the word 'expect'
As explained on the Help->Luck page on the web site, it's not what we
will get, it's what we 'mathematically'
would expect to get.
We may get 0, 1, 5, or even 10.
But we expect,
on average, to get 1 block for each 100% of difficulty hashes the pool does.
(and also
all the other small pools incorrectly show the % a lot lower than it really is)
