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Author Topic: The Big Question: 21 Million Coins (yes, I know its been asked before)  (Read 8161 times)
Realpra
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May 09, 2012, 05:26:05 AM
 #61

So where is that growth coming from? Short answer, from invested capital.
That is incorrect: Invested capital moves human effort towards some endeavor, but that endeavor may well fail and produce nothing at all.

The overall success rate of human adventures is what will give you the true growth rating.

If there is crisis (such as now) due to fundamental factors such as resource scarcity (such as now) everyone may indeed see worse times (such as now, especially in the west that has the most to loose).


Some of the few things really growing today is bitcoin and renewable energy - which are both things I am invested in.

Cheap and sexy Bitcoin card/hardware wallet, buy here:
http://BlochsTech.com
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May 09, 2012, 05:51:16 AM
 #62

So where is that growth coming from? Short answer, from invested capital.
That is incorrect: Invested capital moves human effort towards some endeavor, but that endeavor may well fail and produce nothing at all.

The overall success rate of human adventures is what will give you the true growth rating.

If there is crisis (such as now) due to fundamental factors such as resource scarcity (such as now) everyone may indeed see worse times (such as now, especially in the west that has the most to loose).


Some of the few things really growing today is bitcoin and renewable energy - which are both things I am invested in.

I disagree that the current crisis is rooted in resource scarcities.  I would say that the past several years are the result of bad investments trying to clear from the previous two decades.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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May 09, 2012, 11:18:17 AM
 #63

If prices do fall, then the deflation may induce economic actors to "hold out for a better price," slowing the pace of spending.

The "textbook" deflationary spiral happens when "scarcity of money" combines with price deflation, further accelerating it.
Trouble is for economists, it's the first time in history there is money (bitcoin) that is indefinitely divisible (even beyond the granularity of satoshis).
So there is no such thing as scarcity of money in bitcoin.
As a result, if worst comes to worst, we have deflation of prices but no "spiral" in the classical sense.

In the absence of a spiral, there is room for an equilibrium point because we have opposite forces: slowing the pace of spending will reduce the attractiveness of bitcoins as a medium of exchange, reducing the value of bitcoins since the attractiveness of bitcoins as a store of value can be considered fairly inelastic in relation to the medium of exchange function.
In other words, if the value of bitcoins (determining the face value of goods and services in bitcoin) is the sum of two components e + s (where e represents the value as a medium of exchange, s as store of value), we have yet to see a proof that the is a unique equilibrium point where e = 0 knowing that s has an upper limit (our capacity of saving is obviously limited).

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May 09, 2012, 11:22:05 AM
 #64

The "textbook" deflationary spiral happens when "scarcity of money" combines with price deflation, further accelerating it.
Trouble is for economists, it's the first time in history there is money (bitcoin) that is indefinitely divisible (even beyond the granularity of satoshis).
So there is no such thing as scarcity of money in bitcoin.

So what you're saying is pennies were scarce during the great depression? Do you even think about what you're saying?

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May 09, 2012, 01:28:23 PM
 #65

The "textbook" deflationary spiral happens when "scarcity of money" combines with price deflation, further accelerating it.
Trouble is for economists, it's the first time in history there is money (bitcoin) that is indefinitely divisible (even beyond the granularity of satoshis).
So there is no such thing as scarcity of money in bitcoin.

So what you're saying is pennies were scarce during the great depression? Do you even think about what you're saying?
No that's not what I am saying. Do you read before you write ?

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May 09, 2012, 01:41:03 PM
 #66

Ok then, so if pennies had been infinitely divisible, the great depression would have been averted then. Is that what you're saying?

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May 09, 2012, 01:57:13 PM
 #67

First of all, yes, pennies were hoarded during the great depression.
Second, yes the effects of the depression would have been alleviated with more complementary currencies such as bitcoin, had they been available at the time.
In the absence of internet, cities started then issuing local "fiat" currencies that were beneficial to the local economies but insufficient in scope.
Wall Street lobbyist after WWII made sure that a law be passed forbidding cities from issuing local currencies.

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May 09, 2012, 02:22:37 PM
 #68

First of all, yes, pennies were hoarded during the great depression.
Got a source? What were people using as currency? Only barter? Isn't one of the main arguments that a deflationary spiral isn't possible in bitcoin because "people will still buy bread"?

Quote
Second, yes the effects of the depression would have been alleviated with more complementary currencies such as bitcoin, had they been available at the time.
Nobody asked this question, and this is not what you said in your post. You're right though, if it looks like deflation is getting out of control, people will start bailing on bitcoin and this fact may actually help bitcoin be saved from itself. But, that means bitcoin isn't a particularly good medium of exchange.

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In the absence of internet, cities started then issuing local "fiat" currencies that were beneficial to the local economies but insufficient in scope.
Nobody asked this question.

Quote
Wall Street lobbyist after WWII made sure that a law be passed forbidding cities from issuing local currencies.
Source?


Anyways, you don't have a very good understanding of what effect a major deflationary event has on a currency. Debts cannot be repaid (credit shrinks), bankruptcies run amok, unemployment skyrockets, etc. Allowing it to be used in smaller and smaller amounts does not solve anything. To think that it would... whatever, not like I've come to expect more around here.

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May 09, 2012, 02:41:01 PM
 #69

Anyways, you don't have a very good understanding of what effect a major deflationary event has on a currency. Debts cannot be repaid (credit shrinks), bankruptcies run amok, unemployment skyrockets, etc. Allowing it to be used in smaller and smaller amounts does not solve anything. To think that it would... whatever, not like I've come to expect more around here.

Your analysis is flawed because you consider bitcoin like central money when it is meant to be a complementary currency: no suggestion to issue bitcoin-denominated debt (silly idea) or to end the dollar (other silly idea).
No such thing as deflationary "event"..
Divisibility is a benefit that is leveraged by velocity: bitcoin provides increased velocity by removing unnecessary frictions (something I did not repeat because it is obvious for most people )

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May 09, 2012, 02:51:31 PM
 #70

If there is no bitcoin debt, there will be no significant bitcoin industry. There will be no real demand from businesses for bitcoins. Why would they bother accepting bitcoins when they have to spend the same amount or more (vs. CCs) just to get the currency they actually need? And overall the costs will probably be much higher since people need to pay those same fees to actually buy the currency. You seem to suggest that bitcoin is just a payment processor with a few extra benefits, namely those that hold get to profit when there is an activity spike. Everyone who actually uses will face lots and lots of fees.

A lot of people around here think that it will take down "gubment fiat." Or at least put a big chink in its armor. Or at least they hope so. If it can't even attempt that, then it is relegated to online porn, drugs, laundering, and other black and grey market type stuff.

And as far as velocity, MoonShadow made a pretty good point which I agree with:

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Bitcoin will find it's own velocity, eventually.  After which time whatever effects on overall prices that bitcoin's ever changing velocity has will be lost in the daily transaction noise, too small an effect for anyone to define nor care about.

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May 09, 2012, 04:48:12 PM
 #71

So where is that growth coming from? Short answer, from invested capital.
That is incorrect: Invested capital moves human effort towards some endeavor, but that endeavor may well fail and produce nothing at all.

The overall success rate of human adventures is what will give you the true growth rating.
Granted. The "average investment" is the standard here, with that average including investments that produce nothing. But the other side of the equation isn't all the money - just all the money used for investment.

So I guess the question is, do you think you're smart enough, or that your bank/mutualfund/&c is smart enough, to make an investment that is at least (all invested money)/(all money in the economy) as good as the average? Personally I don't think that that's a weird thing to expect, especially assuming that they hedge properly.

If there is no bitcoin debt, there will be no significant bitcoin industry. There will be no real demand from businesses for bitcoins. Why would they bother accepting bitcoins when they have to spend the same amount or more (vs. CCs) just to get the currency they actually need?
Well, first off, the money necessary to cash out bitcoins is less than CCs by a significant margin if you're running a business and can wait a week or two for the money to get through the pipeline; going through Mt. Gox + Dwolla has fees of (25c for Dwolla + 0.6% for MtGox + 5c network transaction fees) which is going to work out to much less than the 3%-ish charged by the Big Two credit card companies. And if you're worried about exchange rate volatility, you can always use Bitcoinica to hedge (about 1.4% fees, which still puts you in a better position than using credit cards).

But if you can get enough people accepting Bitcoin as a transaction processor, you stop having to cash out; you can just spend the coins again. And if you can get enough people who you can count on accepting Bitcoin for the foreseeable future, then that's currency confidence and all of a sudden it isn't just a transaction processor anymore.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 09, 2012, 05:24:32 PM
 #72

Well, first off, the money necessary to cash out bitcoins is less than CCs by a significant margin if you're running a business and can wait a week or two for the money to get through the pipeline; going through Mt. Gox + Dwolla has fees of (25c for Dwolla + 0.6% for MtGox + 5c network transaction fees) which is going to work out to much less than the 3%-ish charged by the Big Two credit card companies. And if you're worried about exchange rate volatility, you can always use Bitcoinica to hedge (about 1.4% fees, which still puts you in a better position than using credit cards).

Have you ever exchanged one money for another before? Have you ever noticed you get 2-4% less than the forex conversion rate? Yeah, there is no magical cure with bitcoin that is going to prevent the profit of currency exchange. And I'm not even talking about what MtGox charges, I'm talking about what the people actually selling will charge in an established market. Sure, really large businesses will be able to get better pricing, but the same is true for credit cards.

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But if you can get enough people accepting Bitcoin as a transaction processor, you stop having to cash out; you can just spend the coins again.
Again, this is not the case. There needs to be an actual reason for someone to demand bitcoin. Businesses need to be able to pay their bills and salaries in it. If the bitcoin economy cannot expand via debt, and the act of taking on debt is a dodgy affair with deflation, you are not going to have many investment opportunities in bitcoin. This leaves black & grey markets as I mentioned.

Quote
And if you can get enough people who you can count on accepting Bitcoin for the foreseeable future, then that's currency confidence and all of a sudden it isn't just a transaction processor anymore.
And if you followed the rest of the conversation about why a deflationary spiral won't happen.... confidence will flow right out of the currency at the beginnings of any spiral, and you can be quite sure that no one will want to take on bitcoin debt again after.

Bitcoin will never get far as a medium of exchange when the people willing to take on debt are burdened further whenever the market expands. This leaves it as probably a good store of value, but a very so-so payment processor, and a niche medium of exchange.

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May 09, 2012, 05:36:27 PM
 #73

Have you ever exchanged one money for another before? Have you ever noticed you get 2-4% less than the forex conversion rate? Yeah, there is no magical cure with bitcoin that is going to prevent the profit of currency exchange. And I'm not even talking about what MtGox charges, I'm talking about what the people actually selling will charge in an established market. Sure, really large businesses will be able to get better pricing, but the same is true for credit cards.
Then why is it not happening right now? Why can I convert dollars to bitcoins, and then back to dollars, and only pay 1.5% for the round trip?

This isn't a rhetorical question; I'm actually curious. If converting your money always costs about 3%, is there a reason why aren't we seeing that in the wild?

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 09, 2012, 05:42:06 PM
 #74

Go straight out to a couple of mom and pop stores and ask them out of curiosity how much they pay in bank fees.

Dont be surprised if they tell you they lose something like $1000 a month in banking fees.

There is your huge incentive to start using Bitcoin.

Ofcourse the no chargeback.

The only problem right now is that business dont know about Bitcoin, or think of Bitcoin as a serious project.
That will change with time.

And about the exchange fees.

There are plenty of ways to get Bitcoin without exhanging them.
Selling things, services etc.

And if they have to spend 2.5% to exchange Bitcoins.
Well it only need to increase 2.5% in value for them to make a profit.

They could pay services or work done in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is designed to increase in value over time that is also an incentive for business to accept Bitcoins.

Another incentive is that Bitcoin works a bit like giftcards, thus the first business that deals in Bitcoins,
ties customers to them if they give change in Bitcoin.



 




Bitcoins - Because we should not pay to use our money
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May 09, 2012, 05:49:59 PM
 #75

Have you ever exchanged one money for another before? Have you ever noticed you get 2-4% less than the forex conversion rate? Yeah, there is no magical cure with bitcoin that is going to prevent the profit of currency exchange. And I'm not even talking about what MtGox charges, I'm talking about what the people actually selling will charge in an established market. Sure, really large businesses will be able to get better pricing, but the same is true for credit cards.
Then why is it not happening right now? Why can I convert dollars to bitcoins, and then back to dollars, and only pay 1.5% for the round trip?

This isn't a rhetorical question; I'm actually curious. If converting your money always costs about 3%, is there a reason why aren't we seeing that in the wild?

We are.  Search the forum for OTC.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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May 09, 2012, 05:55:59 PM
 #76

And if they have to spend 2.5% to exchange Bitcoins.
Well it only need to increase 2.5% in value for them to make a profit.
This argument seems like an awful idea to me. You can't base a currency's usefulness on expectations that its value will appreciate.

Have you ever exchanged one money for another before? Have you ever noticed you get 2-4% less than the forex conversion rate? Yeah, there is no magical cure with bitcoin that is going to prevent the profit of currency exchange. And I'm not even talking about what MtGox charges, I'm talking about what the people actually selling will charge in an established market. Sure, really large businesses will be able to get better pricing, but the same is true for credit cards.
Then why is it not happening right now? Why can I convert dollars to bitcoins, and then back to dollars, and only pay 1.5% for the round trip?

This isn't a rhetorical question; I'm actually curious. If converting your money always costs about 3%, is there a reason why aren't we seeing that in the wild?

We are.  Search the forum for OTC.
Why on earth would a business - even a small business - trade their coins OTC at a 3% commission when they could do it on an exchange for a quarter of the fees?

Edit: I mean, I can see why individuals would do so; setting up the Gox<->Dwolla<->Bank pipeline is a hassle, requires identity documents, and it can take up to a month to get it working. For such people, the convenience of OTC makes sense. But if you're already running a business, it seems like the fixed cost of setup effort is completely overshadowed by the marginal savings of only paying 1.5% to instantly process a payment.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 09, 2012, 05:57:47 PM
 #77

This leaves it as probably a good store of value, but a very so-so payment processor, and a niche medium of exchange.

That is an interesting perspective, and it may very well prove true.  Yet, Bitcoin was designed to be cash on the Internet, and thus in person transactions are actually an expansion of the protocol in the same way that Paypal is an expansion of the 'protocol'  for fiat currencies on the Internet.  So even if Bitcoin is always a niche medium of exchange, that's still a huge niche.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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May 09, 2012, 05:59:11 PM
 #78

And if they have to spend 2.5% to exchange Bitcoins.
Well it only need to increase 2.5% in value for them to make a profit.
This argument seems like an awful idea to me. You can't base a currency's usefulness on expectations that its value will appreciate.

Have you ever exchanged one money for another before? Have you ever noticed you get 2-4% less than the forex conversion rate? Yeah, there is no magical cure with bitcoin that is going to prevent the profit of currency exchange. And I'm not even talking about what MtGox charges, I'm talking about what the people actually selling will charge in an established market. Sure, really large businesses will be able to get better pricing, but the same is true for credit cards.
Then why is it not happening right now? Why can I convert dollars to bitcoins, and then back to dollars, and only pay 1.5% for the round trip?

This isn't a rhetorical question; I'm actually curious. If converting your money always costs about 3%, is there a reason why aren't we seeing that in the wild?

We are.  Search the forum for OTC.
Why on earth would a business - even a small business - trade their coins OTC at a 3% commission when they could do it on an exchange for a quarter of the fees?

I have no idea.  I was just responding to the simple question, "why haven't we seen this in the wild?"

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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May 09, 2012, 06:02:06 PM
 #79

We are.  Search the forum for OTC.
Why on earth would a business - even a small business - trade their coins OTC at a 3% commission when they could do it on an exchange for a quarter of the fees?

I have no idea.  I was just responding to the simple question, "why haven't we seen this in the wild?"
Ah, okay. So we have seen it in the wild, just not in the use cases that are relevant to "Bitcoin as a payment processor".

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 09, 2012, 07:22:42 PM
 #80

Why on earth would a business - even a small business - trade their coins OTC at a 3% commission when they could do it on an exchange for a quarter of the fees?

Edit: I mean, I can see why individuals would do so; setting up the Gox<->Dwolla<->Bank pipeline is a hassle, requires identity documents, and it can take up to a month to get it working. For such people, the convenience of OTC makes sense. But if you're already running a business, it seems like the fixed cost of setup effort is completely overshadowed by the marginal savings of only paying 1.5% to instantly process a payment.

From the perspective of a (progressive) business owner there are several reasons, of which a major one is the potential of reporting requirements for the major Bitcoin exchanges. This can lead to a frightening and expensive mess of legal uncertainty if an authority decides that Bitcoin is taxable and demands exchange transaction history. The contemporary equivalent would be a retroactive tax with an arbitrary amount, payable immediately and with possible penalties applied retroactively as well.

The benefits that Bitcoin offers in borderless transaction accessibility remain more than worthwhile, and if the legal issues can be mitigated or avoided altogether by using OTC, a 3% or even greater fee can easily be less than what it would cost to remain tax compliant (esp. considering tax payments and the cost/effort expended to insure the appropriate amount is paid).

For a company the size of IBM or Volkswagen, such practices would have to be disclosed to shareholders. That would subject those companies to tax obligations. Fully private companies with no requirement for disclosure would be able to take advantage of OTC benefits, developing a large margin of profitability over public corporations.

These "dark pools" already exist and are growing very rapidly. How do you think the Bitcoin exchange price has managed to stay steady for the past few months? ... but I've already said too much Smiley
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