[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[americanpegasus]

"Forrest Gump II", 2025 remake...or... "Deserrt Gump" 2025, whichever will be made...

Forrest/Deserrt was to Iraq or Afghanistan, got injured, lieutenant Dan was his platoon commander...
Forrest/Deserrt:
" Lieutenant Dan got me invested some of my Bubba Gump money in some kind of coin or whatever...then i got a call that we don't have to worry about money no more...and I said...that's good, one less thing..."

 
  
My god, I just saw it...   The sequel.  
  
Me and little Forest was doin just fine.  Course, he wadn't little no more.  He went off to college and he was making me proud.  
  
Then, about that year, I met an old friend I hadn't seen in quite sometime.  
  
[cue Lieutenant Dan explaining something to Forest]  
  
He said that he had done finally figured out how to get back at the government after all them years, and he was gonna do it by not using their money no more.  
  
I know, it sounded silly and I tried to ask him how he was gonna buy things if he didn't use the government's money, but he just told me to trust him; this was how he was gonna pay me back for everything I did for him.  
  
Of course, I'm not sure what he meant by pay-me-back, since we had just discussed how he wasn't using money anymore.  
  
Anyway, wouldn't you know it, that magical money Lieutenant Dan decided to use?  Well, everyone decided to use it.   Crazy thing, when everyone decides to use something, apparently it's not imaginary anymore.  Thanks to him we took our little shrimping business into the next century.  
  
[scene of boxes being handed out of a warehouse with a sticker that says "BubbaGump Computer Company" on it]  
  
Anyways, Forest did so good at college and his job wasn't paying him very much, so I made him President with a pretty good offer.

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[sgbett]

"Forrest Gump II", 2025 remake...or... "Deserrt Gump" 2025, whichever will be made...

Forrest/Deserrt was to Iraq or Afghanistan, got injured, lieutenant Dan was his platoon commander...
Forrest/Deserrt:
" Lieutenant Dan got me invested some of my Bubba Gump money in some kind of coin or whatever...then i got a call that we don't have to worry about money no more...and I said...that's good, one less thing..."

 
  
My god, I just saw it...   The sequel.  
  
Me and little Forest was doin just fine.  Course, he wadn't little no more.  He went off to college and he was making me proud.  
  
Then, about that year, I met an old friend I hadn't seen in quite sometime.  
  
[cue Lieutenant Dan explaining something to Forest]  
  
He said that he had done finally figured out how to get back at the government after all them years, and he was gonna do it by not using their money no more.  
  
I know, it sounded silly and I tried to ask him how he was gonna buy things if he didn't use the government's money, but he just told me to trust him; this was how he was gonna pay me back for everything I did for him.  
  
Of course, I'm not sure what he meant by pay-me-back, since we had just discussed how he wasn't using money anymore.  
  
Anyway, wouldn't you know it, that magical money Lieutenant Dan decided to use?  Well, everyone decided to use it.   Crazy thing, when everyone decides to use something, apparently it's not imaginary anymore.  Thanks to him we took our little shrimping business into the next century.  
  
[scene of boxes being handed out of a warehouse with a sticker that says "BubbaGump Computer Company" on it]  
  
Anyways, Forest did so good at college and his job wasn't paying him very much, so I made him President with a pretty good offer.

Haha, this is brilliant.

Tell you what I haven't seen in a while... one of these

[dothebeats]

Amazing thread, though I'm not that optimistic when it comes to increasing the price in insane highs. Everything is possible in theory, but I somehow think that bitcoin is a very different market aside from stocks and precious metals.

[SmoothCurves]

When I was a teen people used to ask me what I wanted to be when I grew up and I would say a "philanthropist!"  I was half-joking, knowing it takes a sizable fortune to be one, but now that I am older and a bit wiser it is a bit daunting even thinking about having that kind of responsibility.  We dream of what will happen.  In some ways I almost wish it doesn't because so many people would suffer in our world if there is a collapse of such magnitude.  The major "players" in the financial world will shift, some of us will be the guardians of wealth.  We will be hated for that.  Some might be tracked down and even killed or at best be forced to give some coins away.  Security will become important.  Ahh.  I worry too much.  I will trust God in it all.  I think the thing that troubles me the most right now though is that 99.9% of the world have no fears and have ultimate trust in the monetary system we currently have.  They do not think a collapse is even possible.  Those with eyes to see understand we are not immune to that and we see that we are getting closer than ever before.  

 
  
Be like Bill Gates.  It's hard to hate him, and he is doing amazing things for our species.  I'm sure he also enjoys luxury while he's at it, but his entire purpose is not egotistical and hedonistic.  
  
...As opposed to the kind of lifestyle I'm going to have to fight hard not to replicate: https://instagram.com/danbilzerian/  
  
What if I combined the two?  Is that ethically defensible?  Can I hire a bunch of expensive escorts to install solar panels in Africa with me?  
  

I'll join you on that mission.

[sgbett]

30 days to go... Needs to get a wriggle on!

[gentlemand]

We can do this. Or cheat by selling 0.0001 BTC for $56. That's probably already happened on Ebay.

[jehst]

$560,000 per bitcoin would make the bitcoin mining industry bigger than the gold mining industry.

[600watt]

$560,000 per bitcoin would make the bitcoin mining industry bigger than the gold mining industry.

man, 560 000 per bitcoin would make me feel bigger than the gold mining industry.


edit: feel

[NorrisK]

Would be fun if even a fraction of this prediction came true!

If you beleive in this stuff, better start hitting those faucets hard now, you might be getting your time well spent in the coming month!

[brg444]

$560,000 per bitcoin would make the bitcoin mining industry bigger than the gold mining industry.

BTC is going to deprecate the shiny rocks industry.

Gold is imperfect and has failed to have achieve its socioeconomic role in our digital world so it will cede its place the new torch bearer of liberty: Bitcoin.

[americanpegasus]

The following was a response I wrote in the Monero speculation topic about why those might eventually reach $400,000 or even $4 million each.  However since I believe that Bitcoin has a great future as a secure public ledger (as long as they update their technology and solve their problems) then this also would apply to the topic of $500k bitcoins.  
  

Haha, that's a pretty optimistic view point AP... but I like where your head is at, and the pledge you made to only sell out at these historical land marks (even though I believe the last two are a little too far fetched for my imagination ).  It seems that you've left out the initial $4.00 mark sell out phase though, but I would imagine you would still hold on to all of your XMR either way at that point.

But in all seriousness, I can't see a world that would value XMR up to $400,000+ for a coin...

I like you, but I could not disagree more.  Since 2012 I have been studying money, math, economics, and cryptocurrency nearly full time.  I have some pretty stark revelations to share with you.  
  
First of all, you need to understand that humans are not biologically equipped to naturally understand exponential (and greater) curves, and our greatest flaw (not my words, but some other genius's) is our inability to realize when we're within one.  
  
The gross domestic product of the world is not a linear curve.... In fact, it's so steeply rising that it might not even be exponential.  Currently the entire world values itself at nearly 100 trillion dollars, but that is going vertical since the rise of the Internet.



The Internet only allowed us to speed up the velocity of information to the speed of light... What do you think will happen when there are no artificial limits on the velocity of value as well?  Look at what is currently happening to our economy through mismanagement and centralized money controls.



Dude, once the age of crypto gets in full swing the velocity of money is about to go fucking vertical.  That chart won't even be usable anymore, we will go off the scale by orders of magnitudes.  
  
All this is only going to accelerate the value of our species, not stagnate it.  
  
A hundred trillion?  Don't you see that by 2030 the global GDP will likely be well past 500 trillion and on its way to a quadrillion 1990 US dollars?  Holy shit dude, it's going to be absolutely ridiculous what applying limit break materia to both information and value will do.  In fact, the combination of those two might not have linear effects....  
  
It might be multiplicative.  
  
Global Value Pre-1990: (linear factor representing speed of printing press) X (linear factor representing speed of paper money exchanging hands)

Global value Now: (information at the speed of light, uncapped) X (speed of digital money to move through centralized institutions with multi-day wait times).
  
Global value Soon: (information at the speed of light, uncapped) x (money at the speed of light, uncapped).  

As you can see, if Monero really does become the private ledger for the world, $4 million (in today's dollars) is peanuts for the amount of value it would represent.  By 2040 - 2050 you could see a Monero ledger with a market "cap" in the literal quadrillions (again, in today's dollars).  
  
The reality of our future is gonna hyper-annihilate even the most bullish predictions you might make today .  . Exponential curves, man.  Exponential curves.  
  
Hell, look at that GDP curve again!  That's exponential on an exponential chart!  You know what that is?  That's hyper-exponential!  That's a god damned Knuth Curve!  Our species is going to Knuth, and you don't believe a Monero will one day be worth a paltry $4 million dollars!?  
  

[Wekkel]

AP, there is a big 'if' in your quoted post. Whether GDP goes to the moon or not, the crucial element in your post is whether Monero will be a part of that economy. We cannot be sure of that.

[americanpegasus]

AP, there is a big 'if' in your quoted post. Whether GDP goes to the moon or not, the crucial element in your post is whether Monero will be a part of that economy. We cannot be sure of that.

 
  
True.  However I posit that technologically if Monero doesn't play a role in that GDP increase then no other cryptocurrency but Bitcoin will.  Monero has dramatically better technology in every conceivable way, but lacks Bitcoin's early lead and network effect.  That can change dramatically over time. 
  
Due to it's private blockchain, there are certain classes of applications that Monero can never achieve (though Bitcoin can).  
Due to it's public blockchain, there are certain classes of applications that Bitcoin can never achieve.  
  
I think the future medium term will have two ledgers, a public one and a private one.  In this case the total mega-'value' predicted by these might be split among the two ledgers.  

Sorry, it's not my intention to shill in your prediction thread; if you want to know more about why privacy is important and necessary for digital cash please come find one of the Monero threads (speculation or ANN) and we'll be happy to discuss it more.  In the meantime, let's please get back to dreams of half a million dollar bitcoins.  

[cafucafucafu]

One major flaw -> Willy bot. It wasn't adoption.

[mskryxz]

If this IS the spike, it will happen very fast!

[mskryxz]

...If this theory is true, the next leg up will be greater in both duration and magnitude than any we have seen before...  And when it's done it might just carry us right over the vertical part of the adoption curve.  
  
An unexpectedly long and severe bull movement might last three to four years and take us to some pretty extreme prices.  I've written more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ne7yr/the_next_wave_of_cryptospeculation_is_coming_and/  
  
Sgbett, any thoughts?  Has anyone tried to find a pattern in the timing of expansions vs. retraction before?  Would you agree the next bull run might take several years to complete, which might be "compressed" by your particular chart?  ...
  

I wildly underestimated one of the variables (as humans are wont to do) - time. Think I am bang on the money about the price though, I think $560k is the big one before it levels out around the 300k mark. the 'ristoprice' any move to a million after that would have to be decades long so not in my lifetime.

As you've said though, i think its a multi year move, such that the noise during it will seem like huge price moves whilst its happening but with hindsight it will all become clear.

Look at November '13:

It starts out in the 200's and by the end of the month we'd hit $1,200 - about 4 weeks say. Prior to that several months spent

so imagine we spend the next year or two slowly working back up to 1000

On the 9th Nov '13, the opening price was around 350 after several days of steady climbing, that day it hit $400. The following morning a plunge back down to $300 which was tested a couple times. At this point without a crystal ball it was anyone's guess what was going to happen. We were already well over the previous all time high. Calls of a bubble were already starting, it has to crash any time!

Instead it carried on marching up relentlessly for the following week.

On the 18th it broke $600, and went on to touch nearly $900 going into the 19th.

A blow off top sure sure, and it was... back under $500 in 36 hours. It wouldn't go lower though, and another 10 days straight gains before finally running out of steam at the end of november at over $1200.

Now, Imagine a 4 year run up from $1000 to $560k and imagine the totally unlikely fractal based scenario of the same patterns playing out over that timescale.

The first year will be a steady climb, until around february of the second year where we will be at around $85k. Still holding? Good because by the end of feb its shot up to $101k and you are pretty happy right now!

The trick now is not to panic as by mid march you'll have seen the price drop right back down to $55k. Panic sold yet? I hope not, because over the next 12 are going to see a climb to $225k - if you have the balls to ride that train.

So we are mid march year 3 now, and over the next 3 weeks growth will suddenly accelerate, $393k in the fist quarter of april. You are smart, you'd sell here right. That would be a wise move because 60 days later the price has collapsed to $169k. You made bank though. Bitcoin is going nowhere now and you are sitting pretty. For the next year though you watch in dismay, as you set out of another 230% price rise. Bitcoin $560k, end of year 4.

Those huge swings over weeks and months will all but guarantee redistribution. Given the behaviour of people during the past 2 run ups, something of that magnitude, over that length of time will be absolutely unbearable.

The noise alone will shake people daily.

Thats what my OP is about. Its a note to self.

If it hits $600 in November then your scenario is even more likely!

[DiamondCardz]

"I played around and mixed sin, cos and tan a bit to form a graph and this is what I got, it's unfathomable proof that we will see $560,000 14 months from now"

12 months later

"still legit"

Come on. The graph means nothing bro.

[sgbett]

Only $559,645 out.

"I played around and mixed sin, cos and tan a bit to form a graph and this is what I got, it's unfathomable proof that we will see $560,000 14 months from now"

12 months later

"still legit"

Come on. The graph means nothing bro.

I'm guessing that as I am so wrong and the chart means nothing I should sell, is that it?

[Stedsm]

"I played around and mixed sin, cos and tan a bit to form a graph and this is what I got, it's unfathomable proof that we will see $560,000 14 months from now"

12 months later

"still legit"

Come on. The graph means nothing bro.

If graph means nothing, then how people are able to predict?
Graph actually gives you some hints of what you might/might not see in future, this is a speculation and not a guarantee, but charts are everything.

[gentlemand]

Damn the planet for not pouring in untold amounts of money in a frenzied and irrational manner. What the hell is wrong with these people? Hello?