TH1BTC Speculation Thread - Bitfinex Cloud Mining Contract

[nrd525]

Can you see any evidence of market manipulation?
https://api.bitfinex.com/v1/trades/th1btc

Also - is there a URL that provides a list of all the bids and asks?  That might be easier to detect manipulation. One possibility is that a market manipulator would be constantly reinforcing the bids (though this would be hard to differentiate from a market maker who was selling newly issued contracts).

[1715376161]

1715376161

[nrd525]

Someone is constantly selling small amounts (0.01-0.03 BTC) and then buying them back at a higher price within an hour or so.

And larger amounts:
{"timestamp":1412729320,"tid":3426908,"price":"1.285","amount":"0.18962131","exchange":"bitfinex","type":"buy"},{"timestamp":1412726666,"tid":3426390,"price":"1.276","amount":"0.18962131","exchange":"bitfinex","type":"sell"},

[Timetwister]

The expected return of shorting TH1 keeps increasing. The only problem is a possible short squeeze. It would be great to be able to short it with a limited loss, by buying put options for example.

[deebosch]

Also - is there a URL that provides a list of all the bids and asks? 

Try bfxdata.com

[lg1500]

wtf is happen, prize still 1.30, if this not fall down, soon everyone shorter will be margin called and lost all money
+ swap cost is very high, and no more contract 500 is all ?

[nrd525]

The expected return of shorting TH1 keeps increasing. The only problem is a possible short squeeze. It would be great to be able to short it with a limited loss, by buying put options for example.

The other problem is a swap squeeze. Imagine if interest rates hit 99% on the final day and the contract value is still 1.27.  Imagine if 30 days before this the swap rate hits 3.3%/day.

[nrd525]

Also - is there a URL that provides a list of all the bids and asks? 

Try bfxdata.com

Now I'm looking for bid and ask walls over time which I don't think they provide. You need to store them. I'd like to look for market manipulation.

[Timetwister]

The expected return of shorting TH1 keeps increasing. The only problem is a possible short squeeze. It would be great to be able to short it with a limited loss, by buying put options for example.

The other problem is a swap squeeze. Imagine if interest rates hit 99% on the final day and the contract value is still 1.27.  Imagine if 30 days before this the swap rate hits 3.3%/day.

Depending on the price, that wouldn't last, as people could buy TH1 and offer to lend it for less than a gigantic interest.
And you can get 30 day loans to make that kind of problems less likely.

[deebosch]

10 sized buy orders by marketmaker removed. Correction is coming? They should increase quantity of contracts more than by 100 next time.

[lg1500]

th1 dump begin 1 hour ago, now still chance to sell you th1 high

This is not margin selling with using swap, this is normal Exchange sell TH1, this mean big dump, i think 0.7 low


marketmaker trying to sell so much th1 what he can, then will dump prize to 0.7-0.8 i think
1.281 10 th1 looks like marketmaker buy order, sell into it if you dont want lost on flashdump

[nrd525]

The expected return of shorting TH1 keeps increasing. The only problem is a possible short squeeze. It would be great to be able to short it with a limited loss, by buying put options for example.

The other problem is a swap squeeze. Imagine if interest rates hit 99% on the final day and the contract value is still 1.27.  Imagine if 30 days before this the swap rate hits 3.3%/day.

Depending on the price, that wouldn't last, as people could buy TH1 and offer to lend it for less than a gigantic interest.
And you can get 30 day loans to make that kind of problems less likely.

The price is going to be 1.27 on the final day (or higher) as it will be maintained by the market manipulator.

Or the price will be 1.27 going into the last 30 days, and you will need to spend 2-3% interest/day if you want a 30 day contract.
Someone could offer it for less interest, but why would they?  All of the lower interest contracts would be borrowed, and there would still be demand for the higher interest swaps as long as they were providing a modest profit to the shorters.

[nrd525]

th1 dump begin 1 hour ago, now still chance to sell you th1 high

This is not margin selling with using swap, this is normal Exchange sell TH1, this mean big dump, i think 0.7 low


marketmaker trying to sell so much th1 what he can, then will dump prize to 0.7-0.8 i think
1.281 10 th1 looks like marketmaker buy order, sell into it if you dont want lost on flashdump

Not much of a dump.  The price was higher than average for the past 15 days and is returning to a possible 1.27 floor.

[lg1500]

th1 dump begin 1 hour ago, now still chance to sell you th1 high

This is not margin selling with using swap, this is normal Exchange sell TH1, this mean big dump, i think 0.7 low


marketmaker trying to sell so much th1 what he can, then will dump prize to 0.7-0.8 i think
1.281 10 th1 looks like marketmaker buy order, sell into it if you dont want lost on flashdump

Not much of a dump.  The price was higher than average for the past 15 days and is returning to a possible 1.27 floor.

you dont see no buy support ?, what is point to delete fake buy support if you dont want dump prize ?

[nrd525]

My apology. You are correct that there is a big decline in the Bids wall.  How many bids are gone?  50? 
There is still 112 bid support at 1.09 - which is still way too high.

[lg1500]

i remember hids up to 200+ now up to 150

[odolvlobo]

Even assuming that the difficulty does not rise at all, the bid is more than the mining income will be. Bidders must now be expecting the difficulty to fall by 12/15 (by more than 30%). Or perhaps they are cex.io refugees that are happy to pay for the privilege of mining.

Assuming that the difficulty remains constant, mining income for 1 TH/s until 12/15 will be about 0.94 BTC.

[greyphilosophy]

It seems pretty obvious that the market is being manipulated.  The price on an overvalued depreciating asset should not be going up. 

In a few days the people who shorted on day 1 will be looking for more swap, and it either won't be there or it will be there at a high cost.  So that means a lot of people are going to be forced to buy, and that's going to push the price up and maybe make some people liquidate their short positions (pushing the price up even higher).  Those who bought, even at an over-valued price, will turn around and sell at a higher profit.

You should consider closing your short positions before that happens.

[lg1500]

good luck i not closing my short position with loss, if bitfinex not add more swap then, they are will be responded for this manipulation, they made this contracts with option of margin selling, and if this fail, becouse them i hope they reapir mistakes on some way.

Becouse this i can lost all my money, i shorting 4xth1 from 1.3 from 12 days, if prize will be going up and swap cost too, then i will lost all and bitfinex team will be responded for that becouse not adding more assets

[nrd525]

I closed my short position at a large loss.

[nrd525]

Even assuming that the difficulty does not rise at all, the bid is more than the mining income will be. Bidders must now be expecting the difficulty to fall by 12/15 (by more than 10%). Or perhaps they are cex.io refugees that are happy to pay for the privilege of mining.

Assuming that the difficulty remains constant, mining income for 1 TH/s until 12/15 will be about 1.14 BTC.

0% difficulty increase - I get 0.94 BTC (Oct 10 to Dec 15 - and I only count half of Dec 15 due to it ending at noon).
Remember 3% pool fee.  Not sure how you'd be off by 17% though.