Hash rate declining slightly in recent weeks.

[xstr8guy]

Where did you get the chart?

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

The chart in your link is now showing +1% difficulty change. So much for the "difficulty is going down" crowd. And still 5 or 6 days to go. 

[1713967634]

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[Nagle]

Suddenly, in the last two days, the hash rate went way up. Somebody just brought substantial new mining capacity on line. Looks like the difficulty will not go down.

Any idea who has the new big mining farm?

[philipma1957]

Suddenly, in the last two days, the hash rate went way up. Somebody just brought substantial new mining capacity on line. Looks like the difficulty will not go down.

Any idea who has the new big mining farm?

 

no one, what it is:

the s-4 shipments are arriving to buyers and being put on line. >>>>>>>>>>>>>I found at least 600th in btc orders. 


the asicminer long tubes are arriving to buyers and being put online. I found at least 100th in btc orders. 

  this is in the open but many other sales are made with cash and are hidden to me.

more s-4's  above are going to hashnest.

and asicminer may be mining quite a few longtubes privately

[mavericklm]

It's much more than that:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

246ph to 308ph!!!
few hours ago it was ~246ph

And the prismas didn't left china yet
So it's a very big farm, or a few smaller farms owned by same group/person!

[hedgy73]

All this new hardware going online and btc price keeps going down.

Panic sellers and miners of all sizes needing to sell to cover costs, things aren't looking good

[philipma1957]

It's much more than that:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

246ph to 308ph!!!
few hours ago it was ~246ph

And the prismas didn't left china yet
So it's a very big farm, or a few smaller farms owned by same group/person!

that is most likely part good luck variance.  but some believe   that bitfury can add 150th at will or just a flick of  a switch.  my guess is the 246 was a little low due to bad luck.  the 308 is high due to good luck.  the real number is 260 or so.

think of it as tossing a pair of dice  throw 3 sets of box cars in a row (6 + 6)   hard to do but possible.   so a swing from 246 to 306 is part that.

growth looks to be under 5%  when this settles

[fairlay]

that is most likely part good luck variance. 

This! Do not underestimate variance. The blue line at: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty has always gone up and down. In VERY REAR cases this was because the real hashrate has dropped. Remember that no one knows the real hashrate of the network. It is always just an estimate of the current frequency at which blocks are found. And this is after all a random event.

We try to provide the best numbers for future difficulty changes here:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/

The likelihood of a decrease is very close to 0.

[xstr8guy]

that is most likely part good luck variance. 

This! Do not underestimate variance. The blue line at: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty has always gone up and down. In VERY REAR cases this was because the real hashrate has dropped. Remember that no one knows the real hashrate of the network. It is always just an estimate of the current frequency at which blocks are found. And this is after all a random event.

We try to provide the best numbers for future difficulty changes here:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/

The likelihood of a decrease is very close to 0.

Oh for god's sake, quit spamming you betting site.

[Nagle]

Oh for god's sake, quit spamming you betting site.

Agreed.

[ajw7989]

like others said it is most likely big companies like bitfury, bitmain, etc. Testing products before shipping etc. They control thr hashrate since most miners do not have that type of hashrate to see thr fluctuation. if some home miners turn their miners off it would not even scratch the difficulty to make a diff

[xstr8guy]

like others said it is most likely big companies like bitfury, bitmain, etc. Testing products before shipping etc. They control thr hashrate since most miners do not have that type of hashrate to see thr fluctuation. if some home miners turn their miners off it would not even scratch the difficulty to make a diff

Bitfury and Bitmain aren't "testing" anything. They're just building massive datacenters.

[mavericklm]

We are speaking of hash rate not luckiness, wth!
What i saw was over 50ph added in an interval of ~3hours. That's what blockchain.info showed on their site.

Maybe it was more than 1 farm, something orchestrated...
Maybe it had something to do with the that whale selling 30k at 300usd...

[xstr8guy]

We are speaking of hash rate not luckiness, wth!
What i saw was over 50ph added in an interval of ~3hours. That's what blockchain.info showed on their site.

Maybe it was more than 1 farm, something orchestrated...
Maybe it had something to do with the that whale selling 30k at 300usd...

There is no magic network hashrate chart that shows exactly how much is hashing on the network at any given time.

The network hashrate is determined by how quickly blocks are found within the current difficulty. If a block is found every 10 minutes (6 per hour) on average, the chart will show no growth. But if there is a steak of good luck and 12 blocks are found in an hour, the network hashrate will have appeared to have doubled even if it hasn't.

That's an extreme example but it illustrates a point. You can't look at the chart for a short period and tell for certain whether it's actual growth or just luck. But you can make an assumption that if you are seeing short bursts in growth that quickly disappear, it's most likely just luck. No massive mining operations are randomly turning 50PHs off and on. It makes absolutely no sense not to just continually mine. Nothing is gained by shutting a whole datacenter (or two) down.

[Nagle]

There was a drop that lasted for several weeks. That's not just noise from the rate at which blocks are found.

It's possible that some big hashing center was doing an upgrade, and they were shut down during the upgrade.

[mmeijeri]

There's been a pretty steep drop today. Coincidence, are people trying to influence the imminent adjustment, uncompetitive miners shutting down?

[mwizard]

There's been a pretty steep drop today. Coincidence, are people trying to influence the imminent adjustment, uncompetitive miners shutting down?

People are reading too much into daily variations.  The network hash rate calculated over 24 hours is only an approximation. As a rough rule of thumb assume up  to a 10% error over 24 hours.

For example if the real miner network hash rate is exactly 250 petahash, it may show as 225 petahash one day, and 275 petahash the next.  Nothing has changed.  It is just statistical variation.

Over 2016 blocks (one difficulty change) the error is less.   Each difficulty change will have an error up to say 3%.  So we will soon start getting some negative difficulty changes as the network growth slows, even if just due to statistically variation.

If you want the mathematically details here they are. There is a 10 minute block average solve time with a 10 minute variance (poisson distribution).  So the standard deviation percentage error in solve time is 100 / sqrt(number blocks).  This gives a standard deviation error of 8.3% for 144 blocks (1 day), 4.5% for 504 blocks, and 2.2% for 2016 blocks (difficulty change).  The variation will be within 1 standard deviation of the true value 68% of the time and within 2 Standard Deviations of the true value 95% of the time.  
  

[xstr8guy]

There was a drop that lasted for several weeks. That's not just noise from the rate at which blocks are found.

It's possible that some big hashing center was doing an upgrade, and they were shut down during the upgrade.

What? Are you talking about recent times? There has been no drop that has lasted several weeks since the introduction of ASICs. If you're talking about this difficulty period, there has been no drop in hashrate because the difficulty is going to rise in a day... unless of course the whole network has been statistically lucky during this period. But then you'd have no way of knowing if there's some phantom datacenter that has shutdown or whether it was just luck.

[philipma1957]

back from helping to nurse my sick brother-in-law back to health.

Real world stuff sucks much nicer typing away on site.

and  on :

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   34,661,425,924
Estimated Next Difficulty:   35,474,047,220 (+2.34%)
Adjust time:   After 246 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   271,806,654 GH/s



and on http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   34661425924
Estimated   35000997201 in 246 blks

about 0.97%

[xstr8guy]

back from helping to nurse my sick brother-in-law back to health.

Real world stuff sucks much nicer typing away on site.

and  on :

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   34,661,425,924
Estimated Next Difficulty:   35,474,047,220 (+2.34%)
Adjust time:   After 246 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   271,806,654 GH/s



and on http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   34661425924
Estimated   35000997201 in 246 blks

about 0.97%

You might want to fix the bitcoinwisdom link.  

[philipma1957]

back from helping to nurse my sick brother-in-law back to health.

Real world stuff sucks much nicer typing away on site.

and  on :

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   34,661,425,924
Estimated Next Difficulty:   35,474,047,220 (+2.34%)
Adjust time:   After 246 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   271,806,654 GH/s



and on http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   34661425924
Estimated   35000997201 in 246 blks

about 0.97%

You might want to fix the bitcoinwisdom link.  

fixed