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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 119209 times)
dooglus
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March 19, 2013, 06:01:28 PM
 #1041

Some of the recent big bets:

Quote
Tue Mar 19 00:51:55 2013 <32000 226656 c982e858edbd80cc:3  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    12.80000000 LOSE   -12.73600000
Tue Mar 19 00:54:30 2013 <32000 226657 3891265e256d0f1c:0  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    25.60000000 LOSE   -25.47200000
Tue Mar 19 01:47:15 2013 <32000 226660 3bfdcda75c3fce7e:1  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    51.20000000 LOSE   -50.94400000
Tue Mar 19 01:59:41 2013 <32000 226661 595dc785b33be9f6:0  1GEvQXYptHBx8vrCvbyAeRoATDi5jShqWU BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Tue Mar 19 02:13:32 2013 <32000 226662 5d3f51cd17db153b:0  1B7knWTDp2xq6gkMdoLv5UpE1wZuUBtBgV BET   200.00000000 LOSE  -199.00000000
Tue Mar 19 02:20:26 2013 <32000 226663 1638ff60b7844a7e:0  1Mwa4cqNKenC7o2hAdByd6c4kYs8rN1Czr BET   400.00000000 LOSE  -398.00000000

Tue Mar 19 04:31:41 2013 <32000 226677 4855a6154ba86425:0  18eYvQjX42xGRFeUeufcuKpqYejoJk5WUz BET   400.00000000 WIN    401.53920000

Tue Mar 19 06:07:03 2013 <48000 226691 a2d8f83241217ee7:0  13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Tue Mar 19 06:35:58 2013 <48000 226694 c50e3a659e00cc45:0  13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET    40.00000000 LOSE   -39.80000000
Tue Mar 19 07:15:48 2013 <32000 226697 eb9d81dcf7b97b9a:0  1NkXTYELvEu9vRBftGupGfErraajc4Qnnh BET    82.00000000 LOSE   -81.59000000
Tue Mar 19 07:36:29 2013 <32000 226700 848bc526110e8983:1  1NPxBmoBUFQqpH9SwaeKqBeALfi99TWc7F BET   167.77000000 LOSE  -166.93115000

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March 20, 2013, 08:23:05 PM
 #1042

Quote
Total of 49 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-20 01:20pm (up to block 227001)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   103606 |       1 (0.00001) |  101987 |    1618 |    1212.85 |    1280.54 |   127.39 |    -67.69 | 105.582
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5418 |       0 (0.00000) |    4891 |     527 |      93.00 |       0.05 |    20.72 |     92.95 |   0.059
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7869 |       1 (0.00013) |    7413 |     455 |     119.55 |     160.02 |    12.84 |    -40.46 | 133.851
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12793 |       5 (0.00041) |   12315 |     473 |     254.02 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -178.09 | 170.110
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14464 |       1 (0.00007) |   14019 |     444 |     504.73 |       5.10 |    22.07 |    499.63 |   1.011
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19611 |       9 (0.00047) |   19193 |     409 |    1124.02 |    1396.49 |     1.43 |   -272.46 | 124.240
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20180 |      24 (0.00122) |   19682 |     474 |    1483.30 |     803.41 |    55.83 |    679.88 |  54.164
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19726 |      38 (0.00197) |   19227 |     461 |    2346.81 |    1562.72 |    48.39 |    784.08 |  66.589
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24858 |     108 (0.00441) |   24364 |     386 |    5809.30 |    8640.19 |    13.20 |  -2830.89 | 148.730
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35350 |     285 (0.00823) |   34360 |     705 |    8105.45 |    6652.48 |    10.06 |   1452.97 |  82.074
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   122431 |    1854 (0.01521) |  120050 |     527 |   37942.61 |   32638.32 |     2.07 |   5304.29 |  86.020
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24718 |     571 (0.02344) |   23789 |     358 |    7681.10 |    8378.91 |    15.09 |   -697.80 | 109.085
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    77101 |    2389 (0.03115) |   74314 |     398 |   38089.24 |   34076.24 |     9.37 |   4013.00 |  89.464
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28917 |    1315 (0.04618) |   27162 |     440 |    9357.85 |   10073.52 |    25.19 |   -715.67 | 107.648
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34888 |    2129 (0.06172) |   32365 |     394 |    7652.59 |    7443.14 |    31.36 |    209.45 |  97.263
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    47893 |    4367 (0.09207) |   43066 |     460 |   16307.24 |   18094.54 |     7.36 |  -1787.30 | 110.960
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   187255 |   22915 (0.12271) |  163828 |     512 |   92301.13 |   90967.67 |   100.48 |   1333.46 |  98.555
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    97305 |   17731 (0.18326) |   79020 |     554 |  171577.63 |  173241.18 |  3314.95 |  -1663.54 | 100.970
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   251659 |   61314 (0.24419) |  189773 |     572 |  368026.12 |  354133.80 |  2322.48 |  13892.31 |  96.225
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   251922 |   92504 (0.36807) |  158821 |     597 |  584551.94 |  576394.26 |  1013.26 |   8157.68 |  98.604
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1135494 |  553299 (0.48800) |  580518 |    1677 |  886821.70 |  868491.31 |  2925.05 |  18330.39 |  97.933
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   619570 |  308943 (0.49958) |  309459 |    1168 |  666654.20 |  650595.99 |  6521.36 |  16058.21 |  97.591
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   350445 |  257138 (0.73513) |   92649 |     658 |  302888.46 |  295386.93 |  5455.35 |   7501.53 |  97.523
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    77146 |   60854 (0.79429) |   15760 |     532 |   62311.87 |   61019.62 |  1187.63 |   1292.24 |  97.926
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    66390 |   56385 (0.85685) |    9420 |     585 |   78510.16 |   77847.48 |   400.58 |    662.68 |  99.156
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   102241 |   93173 (0.91636) |    8504 |     564 |   71911.91 |   70945.61 |     0.56 |    966.30 |  98.656
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17273 |   15790 (0.97971) |     327 |    1156 |   24189.19 |   23776.16 |   240.27 |    413.02 |  98.293
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3640186 | 1500063           | 2123311 |   16812 |  786583.37 |  771140.34 |   265.85 |  15443.03 |  98.037
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   116337 |   53080           |   62965 |     292 | 2661244.73 | 2603297.58 | 23628.70 |  57947.15 |  97.823
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3756523 | 1553143           | 2186276 |   17104 | 3447828.11 | 3374437.92 | 23894.55 |  73390.19 |  97.871
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73390.19062760 BTC (2.129%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2957.71537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70432.47525260 BTC (2.043%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.14752384 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70497.62277644 BTC (2.045%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11804054  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6910079  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5078.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2843.7  (56.0%)




Carlos L.
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March 21, 2013, 05:32:02 PM
 #1043

http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c

 Shocked
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March 21, 2013, 05:45:07 PM
 #1044


Damn, now that is a nice win !!! almost $ 140.000  Cheesy
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March 21, 2013, 06:44:39 PM
 #1045

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?
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March 21, 2013, 06:52:20 PM
 #1046

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?

Same question

Address : http://blockchain.info/address/1GH1PJjbL5KXLzAAjnYEcJrqCwJVJ9r8zs

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
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March 21, 2013, 07:19:10 PM
 #1047

If they were sane, they wouldn't keep that much online, I'd imagine for all payments greater then $foo there's probably some oversight. But yes, there's no reason it shouldn't have been sent by now.
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March 21, 2013, 07:34:30 PM
 #1048

The graphs only show confirmed payouts, so the big lessthan 1 bet isn't included yet, but it does show up as a pending liability, and in the bottom line:

Quote
Total of 155 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-21 12:26pm (up to block 227207)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   104433 |       1 (0.00001) |  102809 |    1623 |    1225.68 |    1280.61 |   127.41 |    -54.93 | 104.482
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5537 |       0 (0.00000) |    5010 |     527 |      94.43 |       0.06 |    20.72 |     94.36 |   0.065
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7984 |       1 (0.00013) |    7528 |     455 |     121.14 |     160.02 |    12.84 |    -38.88 | 132.099
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12840 |       5 (0.00040) |   12362 |     473 |     254.71 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -177.41 | 169.650
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14516 |       1 (0.00007) |   14070 |     445 |     506.11 |       5.10 |    22.07 |    501.00 |   1.010
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19699 |       9 (0.00047) |   19280 |     410 |    1127.66 |    1396.50 |     1.43 |   -268.84 | 123.840
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20292 |      24 (0.00121) |   19794 |     474 |    1486.43 |     803.43 |    55.83 |    683.00 |  54.051
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19767 |      38 (0.00197) |   19268 |     461 |    2347.71 |    1562.73 |    48.39 |    784.98 |  66.564
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24963 |     108 (0.00439) |   24469 |     386 |    5878.86 |    8640.54 |    13.20 |  -2761.67 | 146.976
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35462 |     285 (0.00820) |   34472 |     705 |    8120.57 |    6652.56 |    10.06 |   1468.00 |  81.922
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   123100 |    1864 (0.01521) |  120707 |     529 |   38273.41 |   32681.55 |     2.08 |   5591.85 |  85.390
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24773 |     573 (0.02347) |   23842 |     358 |    7732.17 |    8550.16 |    15.09 |   -817.99 | 110.579
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    77649 |    2403 (0.03111) |   74847 |     399 |   38372.69 |   34098.18 |     9.37 |   4274.50 |  88.861
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28983 |    1319 (0.04621) |   27224 |     440 |    9469.05 |   10075.36 |    25.19 |   -606.31 | 106.403
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34936 |    2132 (0.06172) |   32409 |     395 |    7654.53 |    7446.66 |    31.36 |    207.86 |  97.284
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48047 |    4380 (0.09205) |   43204 |     463 |   16373.02 |   18126.75 |     7.37 |  -1753.72 | 110.711
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   188146 |   23023 (0.12270) |  164609 |     514 |   92704.92 |   91572.61 |   100.49 |   1132.31 |  98.779
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    97867 |   17833 (0.18325) |   79480 |     554 |  171874.25 |  173588.52 |  3314.95 |  -1714.26 | 100.997
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   253595 |   61765 (0.24411) |  191255 |     575 |  368477.69 |  354435.29 |  2322.48 |  14042.39 |  96.189
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   252909 |   92858 (0.36803) |  159453 |     598 |  584938.01 |  576809.82 |  1013.26 |   8128.19 |  98.610
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1137511 |  554272 (0.48799) |  581557 |    1682 |  887734.68 |  869478.66 |  2925.07 |  18256.02 |  97.944
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   621816 |  310075 (0.49960) |  310570 |    1171 |  667347.47 |  651240.32 |  6521.37 |  16107.15 |  97.586
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   351748 |  258082 (0.73509) |   93006 |     660 |  303153.24 |  295637.34 |  5455.35 |   7515.90 |  97.521
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    77743 |   61309 (0.79406) |   15901 |     533 |   62450.19 |   61151.39 |  1187.63 |   1298.79 |  97.920
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    67156 |   57051 (0.85707) |    9514 |     591 |   78760.80 |   78093.35 |   400.62 |    667.44 |  99.153
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   103239 |   94091 (0.91642) |    8581 |     567 |   72245.85 |   71270.13 |     0.58 |    975.71 |  98.649
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17446 |   15956 (0.97992) |     327 |    1163 |   24258.09 |   23845.37 |   240.28 |    412.72 |  98.299
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3655453 | 1506280           | 2132314 |   16859 |  788776.48 |  773197.33 |   266.02 |  15579.14 |  98.025
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   116704 |   53178           |   63234 |     292 | 2664207.01 | 2605837.94 | 23628.70 |  58369.07 |  97.809
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3772157 | 1559458           | 2195548 |   17151 | 3452983.50 | 3379035.28 | 23894.72 |  73948.21 |  97.858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73948.21883620 BTC (2.142%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2973.37997500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70974.83886120 BTC (2.055%)
Pending Liabilities:         1786.48765676 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69188.35120444 BTC (2.004%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11855457  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6938263  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5102.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2855.7  (56.0%)




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March 22, 2013, 04:56:59 AM
 #1049

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category,  640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?

This is no job for the police. It's something I'll have to do. Only a ninja can stop a ninja.

DOGE P2Pool 0% nogleg.net:9555
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March 22, 2013, 09:21:06 AM
 #1050

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category,  640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?
http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=44a7e34a8f37a91d9decd698f156627263f66977b8e61253537a0658d9e275f5
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March 22, 2013, 04:27:00 PM
 #1051

Quote
Total of 86 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-22 09:17am (up to block 227407)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   106429 |       3 (0.00003) |  104786 |    1640 |    1252.69 |    3840.74 |   129.39 |  -2588.04 | 306.598
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5583 |       0 (0.00000) |    5054 |     529 |      95.60 |       0.06 |    20.72 |     95.54 |   0.071
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8036 |       1 (0.00013) |    7580 |     455 |     122.77 |     160.03 |    12.84 |    -37.25 | 130.347
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    13388 |       5 (0.00039) |   12909 |     474 |     266.15 |     432.18 |    10.09 |   -166.03 | 162.384
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14801 |       1 (0.00007) |   14355 |     445 |     513.08 |       5.14 |    22.07 |    507.94 |   1.003
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    20220 |       9 (0.00045) |   19801 |     410 |    1150.94 |    1396.62 |     1.43 |   -245.68 | 121.346
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20775 |      24 (0.00118) |   20276 |     475 |    1514.55 |     803.57 |    55.83 |    710.98 |  53.057
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19822 |      38 (0.00196) |   19323 |     461 |    2349.16 |    1562.74 |    48.39 |    786.42 |  66.523
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25040 |     109 (0.00442) |   24544 |     387 |    5882.35 |    8643.05 |    13.20 |  -2760.69 | 146.932
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35542 |     287 (0.00824) |   34550 |     705 |    8122.76 |    6657.57 |    10.06 |   1465.19 |  81.962
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   123691 |    1871 (0.01519) |  121291 |     529 |   39068.06 |   33656.53 |     2.08 |   5411.52 |  86.148
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24828 |     574 (0.02346) |   23895 |     359 |    7734.53 |    8550.60 |    15.09 |   -816.06 | 110.551
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    78121 |    2414 (0.03106) |   75308 |     399 |   39196.79 |   35068.29 |     9.37 |   4128.50 |  89.467
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29054 |    1320 (0.04614) |   27291 |     443 |    9478.78 |   10075.73 |    25.20 |   -596.95 | 106.298
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35011 |    2140 (0.06183) |   32473 |     398 |    7657.07 |    7448.75 |    31.37 |    208.31 |  97.279
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48244 |    4401 (0.09211) |   43380 |     463 |   16384.66 |   18134.40 |     7.37 |  -1749.73 | 110.679
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   188674 |   23091 (0.12272) |  165068 |     515 |   93631.52 |   92502.27 |   100.50 |   1129.24 |  98.794
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    98410 |   17937 (0.18330) |   79919 |     554 |  172906.62 |  174563.58 |  3314.95 |  -1656.95 | 100.958
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   254517 |   61991 (0.24411) |  191951 |     575 |  369151.53 |  355183.72 |  2322.48 |  13967.81 |  96.216
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   253827 |   93200 (0.36805) |  160028 |     599 |  585566.89 |  577477.41 |  1013.27 |   8089.48 |  98.619
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1139256 |  555108 (0.48798) |  582465 |    1683 |  888967.23 |  871091.96 |  2925.07 |  17875.27 |  97.989
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   623745 |  311017 (0.49957) |  311553 |    1175 |  668053.02 |  651763.00 |  6521.38 |  16290.02 |  97.562
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   352736 |  258792 (0.73506) |   93276 |     668 |  303348.23 |  295824.13 |  5455.37 |   7524.09 |  97.520
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    78152 |   61645 (0.79421) |   15973 |     534 |   62636.92 |   61241.35 |  1187.64 |   1395.56 |  97.772
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    67664 |   57493 (0.85720) |    9578 |     593 |   78911.88 |   78249.32 |   400.62 |    662.56 |  99.160
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   104028 |   94819 (0.91649) |    8640 |     569 |   72475.69 |   71502.69 |     0.58 |    973.00 |  98.657
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17644 |   16145 (0.97991) |     331 |    1168 |   24326.17 |   23912.71 |   240.29 |    413.46 |  98.300
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3669794 | 1511073           | 2141808 |   16913 |  790684.31 |  777390.33 |   268.10 |  13293.98 |  98.319
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117444 |   53362           |   63790 |     292 | 2670081.46 | 2612357.93 | 23628.70 |  57723.53 |  97.838
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3787238 | 1564435           | 2205598 |   17205 | 3460765.78 | 3389748.26 | 23896.80 |  71017.51 |  97.948
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71017.51924560 BTC (2.052%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2989.02297500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68028.49627060 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.16813498 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68093.66440558 BTC (1.968%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11905652  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6964914  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5126.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2867.0  (55.9%)




MeatPopsicle
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March 22, 2013, 08:17:44 PM
 #1052

What's the RTP column again?
dooglus
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March 22, 2013, 08:38:46 PM
 #1053

What's the RTP column again?

Return To Player.

It's the payouts as a percentage of the bet amount.

It should be around 98.1% for each bet, eventually.

RTP values over 100% mean the house is losing overall on that bet.  For lessthan 1 it's currently over 300%, meaning the house has paid out more than 3 times as much as it has taken in bets on that outcome.

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March 22, 2013, 09:42:15 PM
 #1054

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.
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March 23, 2013, 01:44:54 AM
 #1055

Simulation results:



This histogram is the result of running a thousand repetitions of 1127422 trials and record the longest number of losses in a row. From the simulated results, we can say that the probability of less than 16 in a row and more than 31 in a row is less than one in a thousand. So I'd say 65 in a row is significantly improbable.

Since I'm home now I've looked for the paper I thought I had but can't find it. The histogram looks familiar though and I think it might be an extreme value distribution, but I'm not sure. I'll keep looking.


If you want to try the simulation for yourself, especially if you have a faster computer than my macbook air and want to try more than a thousand repetitions, here's the R script I wrote:

Code:
require(ggplot2)


# function to generate simulated maximum losses in a row
sim.func <- function(x) {
   #create x trials: win = 1, loss = 0
   # and find all wins and losses in a row
a <- rle(rbinom(x, 1, 32000/65536))
# find the longest number of losses in a row
b <- max(a$lengths[which(a$values == 0)])
# if no losses, return 0 otherwise return b
if(b == -Inf){return(0)} else {return(b)}
                         }
# number of trials
trials <- 1127422

# number of repetition of trials
# change for greater accuracy
repetitions <- 1000

# generate results
result <- sapply(rep(trials, repetitions), sim.func)
result.df <- data.frame(count = result)

# generate plot
plot.1 <- ggplot(result.df, aes(x=count)) +
geom_bar(binwidth=1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(min(result.df),max(result.df),2)) +
labs( x = "", y = "Count",
title = "Histogram of simulated maximum number of sequential losses:\n1000 repetitions of 1127422 trials at P(win) = 32000/65536") +
xlab("") + ylab("count")

# display plot
plot.1

#eof


100K iterations:


Does it say anywhere in the satoshi dice small print that the lucky numbers are ordered randomly though? They may introduce such runs to give an advantage over martingale strategies while also having long win runs to cancel this out. Someone who has the data should make a histogram of the actual loss and win runs.
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March 23, 2013, 01:51:21 AM
 #1056

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky...  Superstition works in both directions.  Smiley

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March 23, 2013, 01:54:52 AM
 #1057

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky...  Superstition works in both directions.  Smiley

Dooglas, can you increase the line thickness on your charts. My colorblind eyes have trouble.
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March 23, 2013, 02:05:46 AM
 #1058

Does it say anywhere in the satoshi dice small print that the lucky numbers are ordered randomly though?

It says how the lucky numbers are generated, and there's no way they can control them.  SatoshiDice picked out a list of secrets in advance, published their hashes, and use the daily secret combined with each bet's transaction id to generate the lucky number in a way you can reproduce ( see http://dooglus.com/sd ) once the secret has been made public.

I went through the bets in the order the bet transactions themselves made it into the blockchain.  That order is determined by the miners.  It's conceivable that a miner decided to group all losing bets together in a block for some reason.

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March 23, 2013, 06:25:24 AM
 #1059

There are two explanations for long strings of wins/losses:
1) Player knows day's secret
2) Somebody manipulates probability of inclusion transaction in blockchain depending on bet resuilt (double spends, selective mining or both).

1GVmS56pvVL7YZA7YqMBXmaDedCoputKuJ BitEN - Bitcoin Erlang Node
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March 23, 2013, 07:28:41 PM
 #1060

Quote
Total of 66 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-23 12:28pm (up to block 227647)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   109389 |       3 (0.00003) |  107733 |    1653 |    1294.18 |    3840.95 |   130.58 |  -2546.77 | 296.786
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5655 |       0 (0.00000) |    5124 |     531 |      96.58 |       0.07 |    20.91 |     96.50 |   0.075
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8158 |       1 (0.00013) |    7702 |     455 |     125.28 |     160.05 |    12.84 |    -34.76 | 127.749
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14011 |       5 (0.00037) |   13531 |     475 |     282.38 |     432.26 |    10.09 |   -149.87 | 153.074
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15312 |       1 (0.00007) |   14866 |     445 |     530.48 |       5.23 |    22.07 |    525.25 |   0.986
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21511 |       9 (0.00043) |   21092 |     410 |    1246.34 |    1397.10 |     1.43 |   -150.75 | 112.096
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24036 |      31 (0.00132) |   23529 |     476 |    1791.76 |    1460.58 |    55.83 |    331.18 |  81.516
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19924 |      38 (0.00195) |   19422 |     464 |    2350.73 |    1562.74 |    48.40 |    787.98 |  66.479
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25117 |     109 (0.00441) |   24619 |     389 |    5884.75 |    8643.07 |    13.21 |  -2758.31 | 146.872
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35667 |     287 (0.00821) |   34673 |     707 |    8124.79 |    6657.58 |    10.06 |   1467.21 |  81.942
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   124711 |    1889 (0.01521) |  122291 |     531 |   39188.18 |   33780.16 |     2.08 |   5408.02 |  86.200
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24895 |     576 (0.02348) |   23959 |     360 |    7736.27 |    8553.59 |    15.10 |   -817.31 | 110.565
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    78859 |    2429 (0.03096) |   76030 |     400 |   39249.71 |   35085.92 |     9.37 |   4163.78 |  89.392
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29150 |    1326 (0.04620) |   27376 |     448 |    9482.51 |   10077.50 |    25.23 |   -594.98 | 106.275
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35097 |    2149 (0.06193) |   32549 |     399 |    7664.12 |    7469.66 |    31.37 |    194.46 |  97.463
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48394 |    4418 (0.09217) |   43513 |     463 |   16393.54 |   18148.83 |     7.37 |  -1755.29 | 110.707
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   189324 |   23171 (0.12273) |  165629 |     524 |   93693.17 |   92558.48 |   100.54 |   1134.69 |  98.789
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    99094 |   18058 (0.18326) |   80479 |     557 |  172991.26 |  174634.12 |  3314.95 |  -1642.86 | 100.950
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   255583 |   62253 (0.24412) |  192753 |     577 |  369383.17 |  355461.44 |  2322.49 |  13921.72 |  96.231
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   254774 |   93541 (0.36802) |  160634 |     599 |  585728.62 |  577632.40 |  1013.27 |   8096.22 |  98.618
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1141238 |  556084 (0.48799) |  583464 |    1690 |  891156.14 |  873370.63 |  2925.08 |  17785.50 |  98.004
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   626827 |  312564 (0.49959) |  313081 |    1182 |  669115.96 |  652908.24 |  6521.40 |  16207.71 |  97.578
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   354253 |  259896 (0.73504) |   93687 |     670 |  303522.12 |  295988.60 |  5455.38 |   7533.52 |  97.518
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    78652 |   62037 (0.79419) |   16077 |     538 |   62755.73 |   61368.19 |  1187.64 |   1387.54 |  97.789
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    68415 |   58152 (0.85745) |    9668 |     595 |   79044.84 |   78385.03 |   400.63 |    659.81 |  99.165
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   105159 |   95839 (0.91639) |    8744 |     576 |   72699.88 |   71702.87 |     0.61 |    997.00 |  98.629
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17841 |   16332 (0.97990) |     335 |    1174 |   24377.45 |   23964.05 |   240.30 |    413.39 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3693448 | 1517757           | 2158695 |   16996 |  793140.28 |  780006.18 |   269.69 |  13134.10 |  98.344
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117598 |   53441           |   63865 |     292 | 2672769.79 | 2615243.29 | 23628.70 |  57526.50 |  97.848
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3811046 | 1571198           | 2222560 |   17288 | 3465910.08 | 3395249.47 | 23898.39 |  70660.61 |  97.961
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70660.61080390 BTC (2.039%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3014.09537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67646.51542890 BTC (1.952%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.12216135 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67711.63759025 BTC (1.954%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11972428  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7005217  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5158.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2884.8  (55.9%)




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