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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 147183 times)
MeatPopsicle
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March 21, 2013, 07:19:10 PM
 #1041

If they were sane, they wouldn't keep that much online, I'd imagine for all payments greater then $foo there's probably some oversight. But yes, there's no reason it shouldn't have been sent by now.
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March 21, 2013, 07:34:30 PM
 #1042

The graphs only show confirmed payouts, so the big lessthan 1 bet isn't included yet, but it does show up as a pending liability, and in the bottom line:

Quote
Total of 155 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-21 12:26pm (up to block 227207)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   104433 |       1 (0.00001) |  102809 |    1623 |    1225.68 |    1280.61 |   127.41 |    -54.93 | 104.482
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5537 |       0 (0.00000) |    5010 |     527 |      94.43 |       0.06 |    20.72 |     94.36 |   0.065
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7984 |       1 (0.00013) |    7528 |     455 |     121.14 |     160.02 |    12.84 |    -38.88 | 132.099
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12840 |       5 (0.00040) |   12362 |     473 |     254.71 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -177.41 | 169.650
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14516 |       1 (0.00007) |   14070 |     445 |     506.11 |       5.10 |    22.07 |    501.00 |   1.010
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19699 |       9 (0.00047) |   19280 |     410 |    1127.66 |    1396.50 |     1.43 |   -268.84 | 123.840
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20292 |      24 (0.00121) |   19794 |     474 |    1486.43 |     803.43 |    55.83 |    683.00 |  54.051
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19767 |      38 (0.00197) |   19268 |     461 |    2347.71 |    1562.73 |    48.39 |    784.98 |  66.564
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24963 |     108 (0.00439) |   24469 |     386 |    5878.86 |    8640.54 |    13.20 |  -2761.67 | 146.976
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35462 |     285 (0.00820) |   34472 |     705 |    8120.57 |    6652.56 |    10.06 |   1468.00 |  81.922
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   123100 |    1864 (0.01521) |  120707 |     529 |   38273.41 |   32681.55 |     2.08 |   5591.85 |  85.390
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24773 |     573 (0.02347) |   23842 |     358 |    7732.17 |    8550.16 |    15.09 |   -817.99 | 110.579
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    77649 |    2403 (0.03111) |   74847 |     399 |   38372.69 |   34098.18 |     9.37 |   4274.50 |  88.861
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28983 |    1319 (0.04621) |   27224 |     440 |    9469.05 |   10075.36 |    25.19 |   -606.31 | 106.403
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34936 |    2132 (0.06172) |   32409 |     395 |    7654.53 |    7446.66 |    31.36 |    207.86 |  97.284
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48047 |    4380 (0.09205) |   43204 |     463 |   16373.02 |   18126.75 |     7.37 |  -1753.72 | 110.711
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   188146 |   23023 (0.12270) |  164609 |     514 |   92704.92 |   91572.61 |   100.49 |   1132.31 |  98.779
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    97867 |   17833 (0.18325) |   79480 |     554 |  171874.25 |  173588.52 |  3314.95 |  -1714.26 | 100.997
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   253595 |   61765 (0.24411) |  191255 |     575 |  368477.69 |  354435.29 |  2322.48 |  14042.39 |  96.189
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   252909 |   92858 (0.36803) |  159453 |     598 |  584938.01 |  576809.82 |  1013.26 |   8128.19 |  98.610
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1137511 |  554272 (0.48799) |  581557 |    1682 |  887734.68 |  869478.66 |  2925.07 |  18256.02 |  97.944
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   621816 |  310075 (0.49960) |  310570 |    1171 |  667347.47 |  651240.32 |  6521.37 |  16107.15 |  97.586
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   351748 |  258082 (0.73509) |   93006 |     660 |  303153.24 |  295637.34 |  5455.35 |   7515.90 |  97.521
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    77743 |   61309 (0.79406) |   15901 |     533 |   62450.19 |   61151.39 |  1187.63 |   1298.79 |  97.920
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    67156 |   57051 (0.85707) |    9514 |     591 |   78760.80 |   78093.35 |   400.62 |    667.44 |  99.153
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   103239 |   94091 (0.91642) |    8581 |     567 |   72245.85 |   71270.13 |     0.58 |    975.71 |  98.649
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17446 |   15956 (0.97992) |     327 |    1163 |   24258.09 |   23845.37 |   240.28 |    412.72 |  98.299
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3655453 | 1506280           | 2132314 |   16859 |  788776.48 |  773197.33 |   266.02 |  15579.14 |  98.025
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   116704 |   53178           |   63234 |     292 | 2664207.01 | 2605837.94 | 23628.70 |  58369.07 |  97.809
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3772157 | 1559458           | 2195548 |   17151 | 3452983.50 | 3379035.28 | 23894.72 |  73948.21 |  97.858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73948.21883620 BTC (2.142%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2973.37997500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70974.83886120 BTC (2.055%)
Pending Liabilities:         1786.48765676 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69188.35120444 BTC (2.004%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11855457  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6938263  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5102.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2855.7  (56.0%)




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March 22, 2013, 04:56:59 AM
 #1043

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category,  640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?

The House of Nogleg, featuring the new and improved Extra Large version of Gangnam Style!  PS - Dacentec has some nice $20 servers (sometimes)...  slipping the affiliate link in like a boss
Carlos L.
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March 22, 2013, 09:21:06 AM
 #1044

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category,  640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?
http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=44a7e34a8f37a91d9decd698f156627263f66977b8e61253537a0658d9e275f5
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March 22, 2013, 04:27:00 PM
 #1045

Quote
Total of 86 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-22 09:17am (up to block 227407)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   106429 |       3 (0.00003) |  104786 |    1640 |    1252.69 |    3840.74 |   129.39 |  -2588.04 | 306.598
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5583 |       0 (0.00000) |    5054 |     529 |      95.60 |       0.06 |    20.72 |     95.54 |   0.071
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8036 |       1 (0.00013) |    7580 |     455 |     122.77 |     160.03 |    12.84 |    -37.25 | 130.347
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    13388 |       5 (0.00039) |   12909 |     474 |     266.15 |     432.18 |    10.09 |   -166.03 | 162.384
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14801 |       1 (0.00007) |   14355 |     445 |     513.08 |       5.14 |    22.07 |    507.94 |   1.003
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    20220 |       9 (0.00045) |   19801 |     410 |    1150.94 |    1396.62 |     1.43 |   -245.68 | 121.346
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20775 |      24 (0.00118) |   20276 |     475 |    1514.55 |     803.57 |    55.83 |    710.98 |  53.057
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19822 |      38 (0.00196) |   19323 |     461 |    2349.16 |    1562.74 |    48.39 |    786.42 |  66.523
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25040 |     109 (0.00442) |   24544 |     387 |    5882.35 |    8643.05 |    13.20 |  -2760.69 | 146.932
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35542 |     287 (0.00824) |   34550 |     705 |    8122.76 |    6657.57 |    10.06 |   1465.19 |  81.962
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   123691 |    1871 (0.01519) |  121291 |     529 |   39068.06 |   33656.53 |     2.08 |   5411.52 |  86.148
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24828 |     574 (0.02346) |   23895 |     359 |    7734.53 |    8550.60 |    15.09 |   -816.06 | 110.551
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    78121 |    2414 (0.03106) |   75308 |     399 |   39196.79 |   35068.29 |     9.37 |   4128.50 |  89.467
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29054 |    1320 (0.04614) |   27291 |     443 |    9478.78 |   10075.73 |    25.20 |   -596.95 | 106.298
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35011 |    2140 (0.06183) |   32473 |     398 |    7657.07 |    7448.75 |    31.37 |    208.31 |  97.279
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48244 |    4401 (0.09211) |   43380 |     463 |   16384.66 |   18134.40 |     7.37 |  -1749.73 | 110.679
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   188674 |   23091 (0.12272) |  165068 |     515 |   93631.52 |   92502.27 |   100.50 |   1129.24 |  98.794
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    98410 |   17937 (0.18330) |   79919 |     554 |  172906.62 |  174563.58 |  3314.95 |  -1656.95 | 100.958
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   254517 |   61991 (0.24411) |  191951 |     575 |  369151.53 |  355183.72 |  2322.48 |  13967.81 |  96.216
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   253827 |   93200 (0.36805) |  160028 |     599 |  585566.89 |  577477.41 |  1013.27 |   8089.48 |  98.619
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1139256 |  555108 (0.48798) |  582465 |    1683 |  888967.23 |  871091.96 |  2925.07 |  17875.27 |  97.989
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   623745 |  311017 (0.49957) |  311553 |    1175 |  668053.02 |  651763.00 |  6521.38 |  16290.02 |  97.562
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   352736 |  258792 (0.73506) |   93276 |     668 |  303348.23 |  295824.13 |  5455.37 |   7524.09 |  97.520
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    78152 |   61645 (0.79421) |   15973 |     534 |   62636.92 |   61241.35 |  1187.64 |   1395.56 |  97.772
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    67664 |   57493 (0.85720) |    9578 |     593 |   78911.88 |   78249.32 |   400.62 |    662.56 |  99.160
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   104028 |   94819 (0.91649) |    8640 |     569 |   72475.69 |   71502.69 |     0.58 |    973.00 |  98.657
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17644 |   16145 (0.97991) |     331 |    1168 |   24326.17 |   23912.71 |   240.29 |    413.46 |  98.300
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3669794 | 1511073           | 2141808 |   16913 |  790684.31 |  777390.33 |   268.10 |  13293.98 |  98.319
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117444 |   53362           |   63790 |     292 | 2670081.46 | 2612357.93 | 23628.70 |  57723.53 |  97.838
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3787238 | 1564435           | 2205598 |   17205 | 3460765.78 | 3389748.26 | 23896.80 |  71017.51 |  97.948
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71017.51924560 BTC (2.052%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2989.02297500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68028.49627060 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.16813498 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68093.66440558 BTC (1.968%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11905652  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6964914  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5126.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2867.0  (55.9%)




MeatPopsicle
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March 22, 2013, 08:17:44 PM
 #1046

What's the RTP column again?
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March 22, 2013, 08:38:46 PM
 #1047

What's the RTP column again?

Return To Player.

It's the payouts as a percentage of the bet amount.

It should be around 98.1% for each bet, eventually.

RTP values over 100% mean the house is losing overall on that bet.  For lessthan 1 it's currently over 300%, meaning the house has paid out more than 3 times as much as it has taken in bets on that outcome.

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March 22, 2013, 09:42:15 PM
 #1048

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.
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March 23, 2013, 01:44:54 AM
 #1049

Simulation results:



This histogram is the result of running a thousand repetitions of 1127422 trials and record the longest number of losses in a row. From the simulated results, we can say that the probability of less than 16 in a row and more than 31 in a row is less than one in a thousand. So I'd say 65 in a row is significantly improbable.

Since I'm home now I've looked for the paper I thought I had but can't find it. The histogram looks familiar though and I think it might be an extreme value distribution, but I'm not sure. I'll keep looking.


If you want to try the simulation for yourself, especially if you have a faster computer than my macbook air and want to try more than a thousand repetitions, here's the R script I wrote:

Code:
require(ggplot2)


# function to generate simulated maximum losses in a row
sim.func <- function(x) {
   #create x trials: win = 1, loss = 0
   # and find all wins and losses in a row
a <- rle(rbinom(x, 1, 32000/65536))
# find the longest number of losses in a row
b <- max(a$lengths[which(a$values == 0)])
# if no losses, return 0 otherwise return b
if(b == -Inf){return(0)} else {return(b)}
                         }
# number of trials
trials <- 1127422

# number of repetition of trials
# change for greater accuracy
repetitions <- 1000

# generate results
result <- sapply(rep(trials, repetitions), sim.func)
result.df <- data.frame(count = result)

# generate plot
plot.1 <- ggplot(result.df, aes(x=count)) +
geom_bar(binwidth=1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(min(result.df),max(result.df),2)) +
labs( x = "", y = "Count",
title = "Histogram of simulated maximum number of sequential losses:\n1000 repetitions of 1127422 trials at P(win) = 32000/65536") +
xlab("") + ylab("count")

# display plot
plot.1

#eof


100K iterations:


Does it say anywhere in the satoshi dice small print that the lucky numbers are ordered randomly though? They may introduce such runs to give an advantage over martingale strategies while also having long win runs to cancel this out. Someone who has the data should make a histogram of the actual loss and win runs.
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March 23, 2013, 01:51:21 AM
 #1050

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky...  Superstition works in both directions.  Smiley

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March 23, 2013, 01:54:52 AM
 #1051

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky...  Superstition works in both directions.  Smiley

Dooglas, can you increase the line thickness on your charts. My colorblind eyes have trouble.
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March 23, 2013, 02:05:46 AM
 #1052

Does it say anywhere in the satoshi dice small print that the lucky numbers are ordered randomly though?

It says how the lucky numbers are generated, and there's no way they can control them.  SatoshiDice picked out a list of secrets in advance, published their hashes, and use the daily secret combined with each bet's transaction id to generate the lucky number in a way you can reproduce ( see http://dooglus.com/sd ) once the secret has been made public.

I went through the bets in the order the bet transactions themselves made it into the blockchain.  That order is determined by the miners.  It's conceivable that a miner decided to group all losing bets together in a block for some reason.

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March 23, 2013, 06:25:24 AM
 #1053

There are two explanations for long strings of wins/losses:
1) Player knows day's secret
2) Somebody manipulates probability of inclusion transaction in blockchain depending on bet resuilt (double spends, selective mining or both).

1GVmS56pvVL7YZA7YqMBXmaDedCoputKuJ BitEN - Bitcoin Erlang Node
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March 23, 2013, 07:28:41 PM
 #1054

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Total of 66 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-23 12:28pm (up to block 227647)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   109389 |       3 (0.00003) |  107733 |    1653 |    1294.18 |    3840.95 |   130.58 |  -2546.77 | 296.786
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5655 |       0 (0.00000) |    5124 |     531 |      96.58 |       0.07 |    20.91 |     96.50 |   0.075
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8158 |       1 (0.00013) |    7702 |     455 |     125.28 |     160.05 |    12.84 |    -34.76 | 127.749
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14011 |       5 (0.00037) |   13531 |     475 |     282.38 |     432.26 |    10.09 |   -149.87 | 153.074
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15312 |       1 (0.00007) |   14866 |     445 |     530.48 |       5.23 |    22.07 |    525.25 |   0.986
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21511 |       9 (0.00043) |   21092 |     410 |    1246.34 |    1397.10 |     1.43 |   -150.75 | 112.096
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24036 |      31 (0.00132) |   23529 |     476 |    1791.76 |    1460.58 |    55.83 |    331.18 |  81.516
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19924 |      38 (0.00195) |   19422 |     464 |    2350.73 |    1562.74 |    48.40 |    787.98 |  66.479
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25117 |     109 (0.00441) |   24619 |     389 |    5884.75 |    8643.07 |    13.21 |  -2758.31 | 146.872
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35667 |     287 (0.00821) |   34673 |     707 |    8124.79 |    6657.58 |    10.06 |   1467.21 |  81.942
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   124711 |    1889 (0.01521) |  122291 |     531 |   39188.18 |   33780.16 |     2.08 |   5408.02 |  86.200
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24895 |     576 (0.02348) |   23959 |     360 |    7736.27 |    8553.59 |    15.10 |   -817.31 | 110.565
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    78859 |    2429 (0.03096) |   76030 |     400 |   39249.71 |   35085.92 |     9.37 |   4163.78 |  89.392
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29150 |    1326 (0.04620) |   27376 |     448 |    9482.51 |   10077.50 |    25.23 |   -594.98 | 106.275
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35097 |    2149 (0.06193) |   32549 |     399 |    7664.12 |    7469.66 |    31.37 |    194.46 |  97.463
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48394 |    4418 (0.09217) |   43513 |     463 |   16393.54 |   18148.83 |     7.37 |  -1755.29 | 110.707
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   189324 |   23171 (0.12273) |  165629 |     524 |   93693.17 |   92558.48 |   100.54 |   1134.69 |  98.789
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    99094 |   18058 (0.18326) |   80479 |     557 |  172991.26 |  174634.12 |  3314.95 |  -1642.86 | 100.950
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   255583 |   62253 (0.24412) |  192753 |     577 |  369383.17 |  355461.44 |  2322.49 |  13921.72 |  96.231
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   254774 |   93541 (0.36802) |  160634 |     599 |  585728.62 |  577632.40 |  1013.27 |   8096.22 |  98.618
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1141238 |  556084 (0.48799) |  583464 |    1690 |  891156.14 |  873370.63 |  2925.08 |  17785.50 |  98.004
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   626827 |  312564 (0.49959) |  313081 |    1182 |  669115.96 |  652908.24 |  6521.40 |  16207.71 |  97.578
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   354253 |  259896 (0.73504) |   93687 |     670 |  303522.12 |  295988.60 |  5455.38 |   7533.52 |  97.518
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    78652 |   62037 (0.79419) |   16077 |     538 |   62755.73 |   61368.19 |  1187.64 |   1387.54 |  97.789
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    68415 |   58152 (0.85745) |    9668 |     595 |   79044.84 |   78385.03 |   400.63 |    659.81 |  99.165
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   105159 |   95839 (0.91639) |    8744 |     576 |   72699.88 |   71702.87 |     0.61 |    997.00 |  98.629
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17841 |   16332 (0.97990) |     335 |    1174 |   24377.45 |   23964.05 |   240.30 |    413.39 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3693448 | 1517757           | 2158695 |   16996 |  793140.28 |  780006.18 |   269.69 |  13134.10 |  98.344
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117598 |   53441           |   63865 |     292 | 2672769.79 | 2615243.29 | 23628.70 |  57526.50 |  97.848
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3811046 | 1571198           | 2222560 |   17288 | 3465910.08 | 3395249.47 | 23898.39 |  70660.61 |  97.961
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70660.61080390 BTC (2.039%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3014.09537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67646.51542890 BTC (1.952%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.12216135 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67711.63759025 BTC (1.954%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11972428  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7005217  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5158.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2884.8  (55.9%)




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March 23, 2013, 07:33:40 PM
 #1055

I forgot about the request for thicker lines.

These are the same graphs with thicker lines for comparison.

Is this better?




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March 24, 2013, 07:30:02 PM
 #1056

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Total of 61 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-24 12:27pm (up to block 227856)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   110183 |       3 (0.00003) |  108507 |    1673 |    1305.57 |    3841.00 |   131.77 |  -2535.43 | 294.200
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5937 |       0 (0.00000) |    5404 |     533 |      99.56 |       0.08 |    20.92 |     99.48 |   0.088
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8233 |       1 (0.00013) |    7777 |     455 |     126.54 |     160.05 |    12.84 |    -33.51 | 126.485
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14243 |       5 (0.00036) |   13762 |     476 |     285.50 |     432.28 |    10.09 |   -146.77 | 151.407
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15375 |       1 (0.00007) |   14929 |     445 |     533.02 |       5.24 |    22.07 |    527.77 |   0.984
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21602 |       9 (0.00042) |   21183 |     410 |    1248.65 |    1397.11 |     1.43 |   -148.45 | 111.890
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24145 |      31 (0.00131) |   23636 |     478 |    1794.13 |    1460.59 |    55.84 |    333.54 |  81.409
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20046 |      38 (0.00194) |   19543 |     465 |    2354.11 |    1562.76 |    48.41 |    791.35 |  66.384
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25192 |     110 (0.00444) |   24692 |     390 |    5886.74 |    8645.57 |    13.21 |  -2758.83 | 146.865
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35858 |     291 (0.00828) |   34859 |     708 |    8128.91 |    6662.75 |    10.06 |   1466.15 |  81.964
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   125137 |    1896 (0.01522) |  122707 |     534 |   39200.90 |   33785.56 |     2.09 |   5415.33 |  86.186
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24970 |     576 (0.02341) |   24034 |     360 |    7739.18 |    8553.61 |    15.10 |   -814.42 | 110.523
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    79194 |    2441 (0.03098) |   76353 |     400 |   39262.82 |   35106.45 |     9.37 |   4156.36 |  89.414
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29232 |    1332 (0.04628) |   27449 |     451 |    9485.18 |   10079.67 |    25.25 |   -594.49 | 106.268
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35256 |    2160 (0.06197) |   32697 |     399 |    7670.72 |    7473.69 |    31.37 |    197.03 |  97.431
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48585 |    4438 (0.09223) |   43682 |     465 |   16399.66 |   18160.22 |     7.38 |  -1760.56 | 110.735
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   189846 |   23235 (0.12273) |  166087 |     524 |   93740.93 |   92616.30 |   100.54 |   1124.62 |  98.800
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    99451 |   18131 (0.18334) |   80760 |     560 |  173014.44 |  174658.21 |  3314.97 |  -1643.76 | 100.950
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   256789 |   62567 (0.24420) |  193645 |     577 |  369530.04 |  355623.62 |  2322.49 |  13906.42 |  96.237
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   255507 |   93808 (0.36801) |  161100 |     599 |  585872.15 |  577761.98 |  1013.27 |   8110.17 |  98.616
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1143042 |  556956 (0.48798) |  584394 |    1692 |  891965.09 |  874236.09 |  2925.10 |  17729.00 |  98.012
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   629412 |  313871 (0.49962) |  314349 |    1192 |  669772.47 |  653620.82 |  6521.42 |  16151.64 |  97.588
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   355279 |  260626 (0.73499) |   93974 |     679 |  303671.86 |  296133.80 |  5455.44 |   7538.06 |  97.518
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    78949 |   62280 (0.79433) |   16126 |     543 |   62850.11 |   61470.72 |  1187.65 |   1379.39 |  97.805
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    69212 |   58845 (0.85762) |    9769 |     598 |   79188.46 |   78531.68 |   400.64 |    656.78 |  99.171
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   105817 |   96431 (0.91636) |    8802 |     584 |   72827.72 |   71787.47 |     0.64 |   1040.24 |  98.572
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18009 |   16486 (0.97985) |     339 |    1184 |   24390.61 |   23976.73 |   240.31 |    413.87 |  98.303
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3706802 | 1523072           | 2166648 |   17082 |  794699.72 |  781516.86 |   271.10 |  13182.86 |  98.341
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117699 |   53496           |   63911 |     292 | 2673645.48 | 2616227.30 | 23628.70 |  57418.17 |  97.852
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3824501 | 1576568           | 2230559 |   17374 | 3468345.20 | 3397744.17 | 23899.80 |  70601.03 |  97.964
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70601.03354344 BTC (2.036%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3028.18497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67572.84856844 BTC (1.948%)
Pending Liabilities:          -66.36128580 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67639.20985424 BTC (1.950%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12022000  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7029613  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5181.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2895.0  (55.9%)




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March 25, 2013, 02:41:18 AM
 #1057

Dooglas, can you increase the line thickness on your charts. My colorblind eyes have trouble.

If dooglus can set the colours by the hex colour code, any of the following colours can be used in one chart and still be easily differentiable by someone with colour blindness, regardless of the type of colour blindness one has:

"#999999", "#E69F00", "#56B4E9", "#009E73", "#F0E442", "#0072B2", "#D55E00", "#CC79A7"

This is a really interesting subject, and more can be read about it here: http://jfly.iam.u-tokyo.ac.jp/color/

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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March 25, 2013, 04:51:39 AM
 #1058

If dooglus can set the colours by the hex colour code, any of the following colours can be used in one chart and still be easily differentiable by someone with colour blindness, regardless of the type of colour blindness one has:

He tells me the issue is to do with the thickness of the lines in the key.  But I'll try the colours you suggest.

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March 25, 2013, 05:10:54 AM
 #1059

Here's a special bonus edition free sample post to try out the new colour scheme:

Quote
Total of 39 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-24 10:09pm (up to block 227915)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   110443 |       3 (0.00003) |  108762 |    1678 |    1313.41 |    3841.04 |   131.89 |  -2527.63 | 292.447
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5969 |       0 (0.00000) |    5436 |     533 |     100.41 |       0.09 |    20.92 |    100.32 |   0.091
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8319 |       1 (0.00013) |    7863 |     455 |     128.15 |     160.06 |    12.84 |    -31.90 | 124.897
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14330 |       5 (0.00036) |   13848 |     477 |     286.48 |     432.28 |    10.09 |   -145.80 | 150.896
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15414 |       1 (0.00007) |   14968 |     445 |     534.12 |       5.24 |    22.07 |    528.87 |   0.983
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21642 |       9 (0.00042) |   21223 |     410 |    1249.92 |    1397.12 |     1.43 |   -147.19 | 111.776
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24210 |      31 (0.00131) |   23700 |     479 |    1794.90 |    1460.59 |    55.85 |    334.30 |  81.375
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20084 |      38 (0.00194) |   19581 |     465 |    2354.61 |    1562.76 |    48.41 |    791.84 |  66.371
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25260 |     110 (0.00442) |   24758 |     392 |    5887.46 |    8645.58 |    13.22 |  -2758.12 | 146.847
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35924 |     291 (0.00826) |   34925 |     708 |    8130.08 |    6662.76 |    10.06 |   1467.32 |  81.952
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   125364 |    1901 (0.01523) |  122927 |     536 |   39205.88 |   33788.81 |     2.10 |   5417.07 |  86.183
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24997 |     576 (0.02338) |   24061 |     360 |    7739.58 |    8553.61 |    15.10 |   -814.02 | 110.518
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    79528 |    2454 (0.03101) |   76674 |     400 |   39268.04 |   35114.05 |     9.37 |   4153.99 |  89.421
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29321 |    1334 (0.04621) |   27536 |     451 |    9486.38 |   10080.15 |    25.25 |   -593.77 | 106.259
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35327 |    2164 (0.06196) |   32764 |     399 |    7672.46 |    7474.47 |    31.37 |    197.98 |  97.419
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48652 |    4443 (0.09221) |   43741 |     468 |   16401.51 |   18162.79 |     7.39 |  -1761.27 | 110.739
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   190145 |   23266 (0.12270) |  166352 |     527 |   93751.11 |   92621.57 |   100.56 |   1129.54 |  98.795
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    99697 |   18171 (0.18329) |   80965 |     561 |  173030.92 |  174669.79 |  3314.98 |  -1638.86 | 100.947
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   257393 |   62708 (0.24418) |  194107 |     578 |  369659.94 |  355690.71 |  2322.50 |  13969.22 |  96.221
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   255884 |   93952 (0.36803) |  161333 |     599 |  585920.71 |  577798.90 |  1013.27 |   8121.81 |  98.614
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1143944 |  557392 (0.48798) |  584859 |    1693 |  892418.28 |  874643.48 |  2925.10 |  17774.80 |  98.008
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   630514 |  314441 (0.49965) |  314876 |    1197 |  670263.50 |  654220.79 |  6521.45 |  16042.70 |  97.607
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   355777 |  260998 (0.73501) |   94098 |     681 |  303934.41 |  296438.11 |  5455.44 |   7496.29 |  97.534
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    79199 |   62473 (0.79427) |   16182 |     544 |   62924.27 |   61546.54 |  1187.65 |   1377.72 |  97.810
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    69511 |   59102 (0.85767) |    9808 |     601 |   79404.10 |   78633.47 |   400.65 |    770.62 |  99.029
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   106355 |   96923 (0.91636) |    8846 |     586 |   72923.89 |   71881.06 |     0.64 |   1042.83 |  98.570
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18049 |   16513 (0.97971) |     342 |    1194 |   24412.79 |   23998.64 |   240.33 |    414.15 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3713471 | 1525764           | 2170582 |   17125 |  795540.18 |  782289.47 |   271.38 |  13250.71 |  98.334
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117781 |   53536           |   63953 |     292 | 2674657.25 | 2617195.12 | 23628.70 |  57462.13 |  97.852
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3831252 | 1579300           | 2234535 |   17417 | 3470197.44 | 3399484.59 | 23900.08 |  70712.85 |  97.962
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70712.85135126 BTC (2.038%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3035.26157500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67677.58977626 BTC (1.950%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.74254550 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67743.33232176 BTC (1.952%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12047239  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7041915  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5193.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2900.0  (55.8%)




organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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March 25, 2013, 05:17:31 AM
 #1060

Yucko! I'm sorry about that. Also, I think grey is not good on that background.

Try this subset of colours substituting black for gray:

(black, green, blue, red)

("#000000", "#009E73",  "#0072B2", "#D55E00")

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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