Investor Cycles of Emotion, Ignorance

[ravenjt]

Your 365 bottom prediction aint looking too clever.
so much for cycles.

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[intighet]

Your 365 bottom prediction aint looking too clever.
so much for cycles.

Agreed. To conclude that this therefore is the death of Bitcoin, however, is fallacious. If it were easy to call the bottom then we all would be rich.

[FrictionlessCoin]

Your 365 bottom prediction aint looking too clever.
so much for cycles.

Agreed. To conclude that this therefore is the death of Bitcoin, however, is fallacious. If it were easy to call the bottom, then we all would be rich.

An indeed interesting call why you're calling the bottom. 

I was expecting a rally from 600, then from 500 and then from 400.    Now I'm completely dumfounded as to why the current price is at 333.

[intighet]

I was expecting a rally from 600, then from 500 and then from 400.    Now I'm completely dumfounded as to why the current price is at 333.

General theory:

No, it's not. This is quite normal market behavior:

I agree. Preliminary models point to the Bitcoin "super-cycle" looking like this, to be repeated many times during the price-discovery phase:



... And we are just halfway through.

Basic intuition as follows:

Bitcoin has a spectacular multi-year bull market which attracts countless speculators ("Bitcoin has always yielded positive returns YTD since its inception!"). These speculators reinforce the trend and cause the price to overshoot its underlying appreciation. Mega-bubble super-cycle reaches a dizzying peak and collapses. At a critical price point, bearish sentiment takes over and begins invalidating suspected trend-lines one by one. This causes speculators to begin to leave to market for the first time, and true fiat outflow begins. Now, it is for the first time ever. No technological asset, revolutionarily disruptive or otherwise, can consistently yield returns. Bitcoin must have a negative ROI YTD eventually. This is not the death of Bitcoin, just a large-scale variant on the smaller bubble patterns we have seen.

[intighet]

Remaining under the last post-ATH low c. $340 = bearish. If price does not exceed this bound and confirm it as support, more down expected.

New targets:

Very high chances to go under 349 within 24 hrs. And if we do, expect 2xx next week. Do you still HODL?

We have never broken a previous all time high.

This is the time to be greedy.

The exponential trend line following the low points of the capitulations of the bubble to $266 keeps us just above this value, at around $300. The linear trend line, otherwise, built on the same two points sees support at around $200. Bitcoin bubbles in the past have retraced 80%-90% of their high value. This points more towards $200 than it does higher. Which precedent do you trust more?

[Wekkel]

Buying pressure will increase at some point.... eventually.

[FrictionlessCoin]

I think you need to consider that there are more than one market here.

There's currently the Chinese market which incidentally has the majority of the trading volume.

Looking at the current 300 price, it appears that most players in the Chinese market are underwater.

Unless of course you don't consider those players at OKCoin who have been shorting the market since August 7th.

I predict the next bull market run for Bitcoin will be much larger than the previous one, simply because of the prevalence of short sellers in the market.   These players not only provide a natural floor to the market, but also increase the upside in the form of a short squeeze.

So far the Chinese short sellers have been extremely successful.

[sgbett]

[FrictionlessCoin]

Are we at the bottom in this cycle?  Have we seen capitulation?  Does the high volume today signal capitulation?

What was unusual in the current down turn is that good news didn't increase the price, it just kept going down.  

I think once the Chinese got a mechanism to short Bitcoin (via OKcoin) then they've manipulated the price down to its current levels.

The Chinese at present handle the majority of trades for Bitcoin, furthermore they have no use for Bitcoin other than speculation and mining.    So what's happening is the Chinese are selling futures of Bitcoin at deflated prices.    My worry though is whether OKcoin correctly tracks the Bitcoin that have been shorted.

Any massive increase in the price of Bitcoin can send many shorters into Bankruptcy.

[sgbett]

Who knows where we are at 

It's just a counter opinion to those that repeatedly post the bubble chart, from instructing that maybe there is an alternative scenario they have overlooked.

Not for there sakes but for anyone else who might be in the business of coming to their own conclusions

[intighet]

Currently trapped amongst some very strong contours. Consecutive high volume candles on weekly scale, second with larger volume only 5 full days in = plausible medium term bottom. This also suggested by location of price within channel. Next target low $400s.