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Author Topic: Black Swan Event  (Read 1399 times)
Chopperman
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October 03, 2014, 07:37:31 PM
 #1

Judge in FTC versus BFL case orders all of their bitcoin to be converted to USD.
This is a black swan event - nobody saw it coming.
Nobody other than BFL knows how much BTC this is going to be, but it's all coming onto the market.
Nowhere to go but down.


http://ia902308.us.archive.org/32/items/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531.54.0.pdf

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All parties shall cooperate in transferring Receivership Defendant’s bitcoins to a Court controlled bitcoin wallet,

Conversion of Receivership Defendant’s substantial bitcoin holdings to cash on a systematic and reasoned basis;
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October 03, 2014, 07:39:39 PM
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If nobody knows he size of the holding than how can it be a black swan, just as likely a black head.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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October 03, 2014, 07:40:54 PM
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Since when is "systematic and reasoned basis" a black swan event?

I am happy they will get crap prices for the coins though.
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October 03, 2014, 07:42:06 PM
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This is actually good. They are forced to sell the coins for low prices Cheesy

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October 03, 2014, 07:43:10 PM
 #5

Nothing big



FTC vs Josh


Sorry for my bad english Wink
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Chopperman
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October 03, 2014, 07:47:49 PM
 #6

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind.    That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning.  Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.
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October 03, 2014, 07:48:54 PM
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That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind.    That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning.  Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

I think you would need to be a lunatic to be holding bitcoin in this current environment. Bad news for the bulls...
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October 03, 2014, 07:53:17 PM
 #8

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind.    That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning.  Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?
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October 03, 2014, 08:00:01 PM
 #9

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind.    That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning.  Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?

He just made that up.

Like they said in court it's around 896 coins.

Either way, they will be sold at auction, not on the exchanges.
Chopperman
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October 03, 2014, 08:02:44 PM
 #10

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind.    That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning.  Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?

Traced BFL related blockchain payments, a lot of speculation about this in the hardware thread.    It's way more than just the EMC cold wallet.  The "$1M pre-order" BTC hasn't even moved since that press release.
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October 03, 2014, 08:03:33 PM
 #11

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

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October 03, 2014, 09:27:37 PM
 #12

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

Wouldn't lost forever coins make the price go higher? (assuming the demand doesn't fall tho).
Simple logic = Shorter supply + big demand = higher price. R... right guys?
Kuriso
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October 04, 2014, 02:02:26 AM
 #13

Found on the BFL forum under "Put a fork in it! BFL Is toast"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w
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October 04, 2014, 02:05:11 AM
 #14

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

Wouldn't lost forever coins make the price go higher? (assuming the demand doesn't fall tho).
Simple logic = Shorter supply + big demand = higher price. R... right guys?

Yes. Yes it would.

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