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Author Topic: Altcoin that will one day replaces bitcoin  (Read 2385 times)
bitsalame
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October 05, 2014, 04:39:13 AM
 #21

I'll re-post this from July as my answer to OP:



...It should be somewhat clear that 99% of existing alts will lose 99% of their value over the next few years. Most alt "innovations" either aren't innovations (like tweaking blocktime or supply), don't work, don't scale, or don't matter. Furthermore, ninja-mining, pre-mining, ugly emission curves, 51%s, NaS attacks, etc, can all kill coins even if there *were* actual innovation. And further still, it's probably the case that if any meaningful, viable innovation ever gets done in the alt-space, bitcoin could eventually incorporate it, making the separate chain irrelevant.

You have to understand that bitcoin's innovation was 30yrs in the making. Solving distributed global consensus was a breakthrough in computer science. There has not been a single innovation in the alt space that even sorta compares to that. Not one. Which is why bitcoin is highly likely to remain dominant.

Furthermore, it's been well understood for the past 20-30yrs that if you could solve distributed global consensus, you could do digital cash, and it would be a big deal. It's just that no one had figured out how to solve double-spending (global consensus) prior to Satoshi. There is no similar known problem being attacked in the alt-space for which a solution would be a breakthrough of similar magnitude. So an alt would have to luckbox into some completely unforeseen yet incredible innovation.

So bitcoin likely remains the primary crypto-coin. That said, there *are* potential niches to be filled by alt-coins. The only one I can clearly identify is anonymity. It's clear that bitcoin does not offer meaningful anonymity unless the user is technically skilled enough and motivated enough to obfuscate their transaction chains sufficiently. Furthermore, bitcoin is becoming a global asset class, fit for corporate balance sheets and HNW portfolios. It's also obviously seeing high-profile merchant adoption, and tacit acceptance/approval by various governments and regulatory bodies. If bitcoin offered technically pure anonymity that required zero user effort, governments would probably be a lot more directly hostile towards it. Thus, it seems unlikely that the bitcoin community would embrace full-anon tech in bitcoin core; lest governments react harshly and reduce existing ecosystem investment value dramatically.

So that leaves the anonymity niche open to an alt. As I've previously noted, ever since Zerocoin was published, I thought that when it came out as a functional implementation, it'd be the first actually interesting alt-coin. Well, it looks like these CryptoNote coins have beaten it to the punch of functional anonymity. Which CN coin will win is a different matter. XMR seems out in front, but the waters are muddy still.

I don't see any other obvious niches for alts. Turing completeness is interesting in theory, but I wouldn't trust the security of such a chain for a quite a while, and much of the benefits may be possible in bitcoin anyway. Other than that.... ?

Now that's not to say you couldn't make a killing if you play the alt market perfectly, and jump from coin to coin as they fall in and out of favor. But good luck not losing your shirt.



tl;dr: Alts suck, with very few even theoretical exceptions.

The only exception to your diatribe is MaidSafeCoin (or the future SafeCoin from MaidSafe)
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October 05, 2014, 05:35:39 AM
 #22

That won't be possible. Because it already has spread out like a viru. And unless every Bitcoin is declared illegal, I don't see anything taking its place.

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October 05, 2014, 05:55:33 PM
 #23

I'll re-post this from July as my answer to OP:



...It should be somewhat clear that 99% of existing alts will lose 99% of their value over the next few years. Most alt "innovations" either aren't innovations (like tweaking blocktime or supply), don't work, don't scale, or don't matter. Furthermore, ninja-mining, pre-mining, ugly emission curves, 51%s, NaS attacks, etc, can all kill coins even if there *were* actual innovation. And further still, it's probably the case that if any meaningful, viable innovation ever gets done in the alt-space, bitcoin could eventually incorporate it, making the separate chain irrelevant.

You have to understand that bitcoin's innovation was 30yrs in the making. Solving distributed global consensus was a breakthrough in computer science. There has not been a single innovation in the alt space that even sorta compares to that. Not one. Which is why bitcoin is highly likely to remain dominant.

Furthermore, it's been well understood for the past 20-30yrs that if you could solve distributed global consensus, you could do digital cash, and it would be a big deal. It's just that no one had figured out how to solve double-spending (global consensus) prior to Satoshi. There is no similar known problem being attacked in the alt-space for which a solution would be a breakthrough of similar magnitude. So an alt would have to luckbox into some completely unforeseen yet incredible innovation.

So bitcoin likely remains the primary crypto-coin. That said, there *are* potential niches to be filled by alt-coins. The only one I can clearly identify is anonymity. It's clear that bitcoin does not offer meaningful anonymity unless the user is technically skilled enough and motivated enough to obfuscate their transaction chains sufficiently. Furthermore, bitcoin is becoming a global asset class, fit for corporate balance sheets and HNW portfolios. It's also obviously seeing high-profile merchant adoption, and tacit acceptance/approval by various governments and regulatory bodies. If bitcoin offered technically pure anonymity that required zero user effort, governments would probably be a lot more directly hostile towards it. Thus, it seems unlikely that the bitcoin community would embrace full-anon tech in bitcoin core; lest governments react harshly and reduce existing ecosystem investment value dramatically.

So that leaves the anonymity niche open to an alt. As I've previously noted, ever since Zerocoin was published, I thought that when it came out as a functional implementation, it'd be the first actually interesting alt-coin. Well, it looks like these CryptoNote coins have beaten it to the punch of functional anonymity. Which CN coin will win is a different matter. XMR seems out in front, but the waters are muddy still.

I don't see any other obvious niches for alts. Turing completeness is interesting in theory, but I wouldn't trust the security of such a chain for a quite a while, and much of the benefits may be possible in bitcoin anyway. Other than that.... ?

Now that's not to say you couldn't make a killing if you play the alt market perfectly, and jump from coin to coin as they fall in and out of favor. But good luck not losing your shirt.



tl;dr: Alts suck, with very few even theoretical exceptions.
I really can't think of any theoretical exceptions to altcoins being crap. Even zero coin (or other anon coins) does not offer anything that bitcoin cannot. It is very easy to use a mixer to hide the source of your bitcoin and to hide as to where your bitcoin goes when you spend it. I also cannot see a very large demand for anon from people that do not have the expertise to hide the source of their coins (someone demanding this would want to be sure it actually protects them, and would gain the expertise to check this if necessary, but once they gain this expertise they could just use bitcoin)
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October 05, 2014, 06:08:51 PM
 #24

I don't have an answer to that but looking at all the other alt coins i would say none have come close

In order to take the No 1 spot, that coin would have to be something that can solve all current btc weaknesses and with new technology. Probably fresh new codes. Only few coins that is not based entirely on btc codes like monero, ripple but i don't think that could change.

Well the possibility is there that someday that there will be one revolutionary coin that will dislogde btc spot

Your views?

There will be many coins in use. Each will fill one niche that bit coin will never full fill. Find such, be early adopter and soon filthy rich.
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October 05, 2014, 06:11:47 PM
 #25

I don't have an answer to that but looking at all the other alt coins i would say none have come close

In order to take the No 1 spot, that coin would have to be something that can solve all current btc weaknesses and with new technology. Probably fresh new codes. Only few coins that is not based entirely on btc codes like monero, ripple but i don't think that could change.

Well the possibility is there that someday that there will be one revolutionary coin that will dislogde btc spot

Your views?

Not sure but over 1.5 years of thought have been put into this coin. Still has yet to launch.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169204.0

Scammed by Black Arrow? See the consumer complaint thread here -
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=681965.0
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October 05, 2014, 10:11:49 PM
 #26

Right now it doesn't really matter if bitcoins are technologically inferior or wasteful.
Bitcoin network effect is too large.

Minidiscs were much more sophisticated than the cassette and even CDs, and yet they failed.
Bluray quality is also way better than DVD, and yet it never replaced it.

The currency that will win is the one that is not just technically advanced, but the one that wins the people's heart. User adoption is the key... in that aspect bitcoins have the not insignificant first time mover advantage.
This is where bitcoin has a huge advantage over every altcoin that exists. With only one or two exceptions you can generally not even buy an altcoin without first buying bitcoin, the same goes with spending any altcoin on goods/services, you must first go through bitcoin. As a result there is little actual reason to hold/use any altcoin except for speculation

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bitsalame
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Preaching the gospel of Satoshi


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October 05, 2014, 10:13:57 PM
 #27

Right now it doesn't really matter if bitcoins are technologically inferior or wasteful.
Bitcoin network effect is too large.

Minidiscs were much more sophisticated than the cassette and even CDs, and yet they failed.
Bluray quality is also way better than DVD, and yet it never replaced it.

The currency that will win is the one that is not just technically advanced, but the one that wins the people's heart. User adoption is the key... in that aspect bitcoins have the not insignificant first time mover advantage.
This is where bitcoin has a huge advantage over every altcoin that exists. With only one or two exceptions you can generally not even buy an altcoin without first buying bitcoin, the same goes with spending any altcoin on goods/services, you must first go through bitcoin. As a result there is little actual reason to hold/use any altcoin except for speculation
yep
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October 05, 2014, 10:31:20 PM
 #28

There is strong technology coming from the altcoin community. BTC does have a the strongest presence in the market due to personal and business use.
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October 06, 2014, 01:29:42 PM
 #29

If Bitcoin fails, no one will ever invest in any altcoin.
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October 06, 2014, 01:43:11 PM
 #30



What will this advantage be? I have no idea. In my opinion, however, these do not meet the criteria:
- Faster transactions
- Lower cost transactions
- More transaction volume
- Alternative to proof of work
- Anonymity

Darkcoin would be the only one that exists right now. Proven anonymous, instant transactions, Masternode network.

BTC                1DfATu4cu9JE1tpKG4swxPw1csSjpr5WDm
DASHpay        XudkdomLGJWRp8ypZ73H4yi2CsV8CGFDNe
philiveyjr
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October 08, 2014, 07:50:35 AM
 #31

BTC will never be replaced unless a fatal error occurs which is next to impossible.
The only thing killing bitcoin is the sheep holding the coin itself...

True..!! i dont think BTC will get replaced anytime in the next 50 years.!!
thats all i have to worry about.! Wink

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October 08, 2014, 01:09:15 PM
 #32

It hasnt been made yet.. But for sure its Chinese made.
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