Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?

[1713964904]

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[1713964904]

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[1713964904]

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[chessnut]

Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?

I dont see what you're trying to say?

You have no idea now chessnut? Your last bullish charts were pretty naive

I said there was no reason why we shouldnt test the upper 1300s. I still do not see good enough reason to be very bearish here.

As for ideas I have plenty to work with but need the local evidence to present its self first.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

My count says a tsunami is coming. Not sure in which direction, tho

same with me! it'll be quite soon

[Afrikoin]

Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?

I dont see what you're trying to say?
 

Ok, the encircled pattern look similar ie a high is made $303 and $249 and a second lower higher follows $298 and $242. Then a move down, several days of green candles up, then more down.

Are we in some sort of corrective from $219 to  $2XX?

I'm bearish now actually.

[chessnut]

Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?

I dont see what you're trying to say?
 

Ok, the encircled pattern look similar ie a high is made $303 and $249 and a second lower higher follows $298 and $242. Then a move down, several days of green candles up, then more down.

Are we in some sort of corrective from $219 to  $2XX?

I'm bearish now actually.

If you are saying simply that you see a down trend then fair enough, but its an EW thread, we are looking for a more sophisticated approach. imo trend is a fallacy, you cant win with trend alone.

[Xiaoxiao]

Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

[futureofbitcoin]

he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago

[chessnut]

he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago

Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.

[Marbit]

he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago

Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.

What do you make of the flat price action? I tend to fade momentum, but this is flat as a pancake. I don't have any read here.

[chessnut]

he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago

Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.

What do you make of the flat price action? I tend to fade momentum, but this is flat as a pancake. I don't have any read here.

Times like this just gotta wait and see. Patience is key

[AceWallen]

agree with that. i haven't touched the bitcoin market in a couple months. been 50/50 fiat/btc for even longer than that. this market is a real chop fest.

[coinableS]

agree with that. i haven't touched the bitcoin market in a couple months. been 50/50 fiat/btc for even longer than that. this market is a real chop fest.

Agreed the only recent trade I made was a short at $231 when the devs, specifically Peter and Gavin, started debating on reddit about the blocksize. News usually isn't a good indicator with bitcoin though so I got lucky on that one.

[AceWallen]

i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin () and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.

[illyiller]

i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin () and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.

That's an interesting point. I remember things like...like the PBOC ban (so long ago I know). That caused a real spike down in the market. Lately, not so much. Although, it's not like we really had a big disaster yet, like a hard fork gone awry or another Gox.

[Trouble821]

i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin () and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.

That's an interesting point. I remember things like...like the PBOC ban (so long ago I know). That caused a real spike down in the market. Lately, not so much. Although, it's not like we really had a big disaster yet, like a hard fork gone awry or another Gox.

News of an impending dump seems to move the market fast. When the news that evolution had done an exit scam got out there was a sudden crash. People must have speculated that the stolen coins would soon be dumped.

When the Mt Gox coins are returned it might spark another panic dump, but I'm only speculating.

[Afrikoin]

This is what i'm seeing now.



Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*

[h3speros]

This is what i'm seeing now.



Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*

There is 1-4 overlap. http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html

[Afrikoin]

This is what i'm seeing now.


Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*

There is 1-4 overlap. http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html

Yeah, saw that and immediately made an edit (see above).

[JustAnotherSheep]

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Indeed, I'm fairly certain that's an ABC. At least I've counted it as one since bottom successfully (with us currently being near the top of C if my count is correct, but it may somehow overextend to complete a triangle wave; see below).



I'm not sure how it fits in with the bigger picture though. At first I figured it was corrective to the preceding impulse, meaning as soon as it is complete we resume the downtrend since $250 top, imo probably to form a 5th wave of some degree since we seemed to lack a 5 when we entered correction.

However I recently noticed this potential triangle which, if valid, would suggest that the ABC is just a triangle subwave, possibly even half a wave ((a) of C) unless c extends to hit upper trendline. It would also mean top of current correction will likely be followed by 2 more corrective waves (D and E). Further the presence of a triangle here would afaik  seem to confirm the downtrend from $300 top being an A, and I think a successful downwards break and C-wave would probably invalidate the triangle count(s) posted by chessnut earlier (unless the hypothetical coming (C) turns out to be extremely underextended).



But I don't even know if it's valid heh, just a thought. Would love some feedback from the resident EW experts =)

[h3speros]

i don't post charts but it could be WXY or ABC and it could be topping right now, we have pretty clear 5 waver with divergence between 3 and 5 for some C probably