Critical Levels - EW analysis

[sidhujag]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

Not sure how you can hope to be a good trader when you always pick one side of the trade by default. The price is the price and sometimes a quick glance at the chart tells you all you need to know - the line points up..

Trend is bullish when price is falling most of the time and bearish when it is rising most of the time

[1713916417]

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[brg444]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

Is it still bearish 

[Tzupy]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

Is it still bearish 

The Chinese pumpers managed to delay the correction until they reached their target, and now dumped upon the piglets.
I waited until 4am (my time) and then had to go to sleep, of course this started around 6 am, so I missed the short.

[hdbuck]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

Is it still bearish 

The Chinese pumpers managed to delay the correction until they reached their target, and now dumped upon the piglets.
I waited until 4am (my time) and then had to go to sleep, of course this started around 6 am, so I missed the short.

missed it too :/

seems we're up for another round tho.

[eboard10]

Two counts I'm seeing at the moment, one pushing the price up, the other down.

As the triangle is going to end soon, we should see some price movement in the next hours/day.

[SebastianJu]

Two counts I'm seeing at the moment, one pushing the price up, the other down.

As the triangle is going to end soon, we should see some price movement in the next hours/day.

I tend to believe that it will go down. There is simply no power in the market for anything other. I'm not a pro trader yet though.

[Tzupy]

Chessnut, do you still believe in this one?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/bRThj8lF-BTCCNY-EW-Analysis-bullish-primary-wave-count/

[Afrikoin]

been too long bro!

Where you been? Miss the thread. Why I am bumping it 

[podyx]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

[chessnut]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

[L0uis]

Thanks Chess, has been too long

[uki]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

-snip-

I am not an EW expert but it looks to me like the newest III in the C wave is yet to be confirmed by surpassing I's peak. Only after we get there we can start speculating about this scenario.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

masterluc believed we are in historical III which would fit nicely with a halving bubble.

[RyNinDaCleM]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

-snip-

I am not an EW expert but it looks to me like the newest III in the C wave is yet to be confirmed by surpassing I's peak. Only after we get there we can start speculating about this scenario.

This is why he makes the addition that there is plenty of ambiguity. It is a safe count since the triangle broke up and has an impulsive structure making wave-1. Until invalidation, at the wave-1 low (also the E wave, triangle termination), this is considered wave-2 and triangle retest. The ambiguous parts being that triangles can also be nested 1-2's  and there is one scenario where the triangle can be the end of a correction and this is an overthrow of a sorts before making a bearish move. I do not think the latter is the case at the moment, so no need for concern, yet.

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

masterluc believed we are in historical III which would fit nicely with a halving bubble.

What luc is talking about is a wave-III that would be 5 years, or so, long. A little more grand than a halving rally. What I mean is that it's possible that the halving rally is merely a small part of his proposed wave-III. I do not subscribe to that belief, but would be fine if it did.

[chessnut]

Breaking 3030 could make this impulse a primary wave... the implications are potentially very bullish.



notice how the retrace of hypothetical i is exactly 0.618... just how we like it.

[btc4lifer]

Breaking 3030 could make this impulse a primary wave... the implications are potentially very bullish.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/q82d3PTt/

notice how the retrace of hypothetical i is exactly 0.618... just how we like it.

According to the chessnut inverse indicator, we'll be dumping soon.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Breaking 3030 could make this impulse a primary wave... the implications are potentially very bullish.



notice how the retrace of hypothetical i is exactly 0.618... just how we like it.

According to the chessnut inverse indicator, we'll be dumping soon.

Savage!

[sidhujag]

Breaking 3030 could make this impulse a primary wave... the implications are potentially very bullish.



notice how the retrace of hypothetical i is exactly 0.618... just how we like it.

According to the chessnut inverse indicator, we'll be dumping soon.

according to noob reverse indicator we shall break 3030 soon?

[btc4lifer]

according to noob reverse indicator we shall break 3030 soon?

you are absolutely right as chessnut (aka EW noob) usually has very bad counts as he does not use an oscillator to discern motive from corrective

you cannot just put numbers and letters on a chart and call it EW

i've even asked him about this in TV chat but he doesn't seem to think that it is very important

[chessnut]

 

we pass 3030, its bullish. are we confused about something?

these people calling me noob are about as good at reading as they are at EW...

Lucky they didnt lose any money since they didnt long before the count was validated or confirmed by some kind of oscillator, they will be most content.