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zyk
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August 30, 2012, 09:49:15 AM |
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I would like to provide some insight into what was going on as I mapped out the mechanics of what I thought was going on to Pirate last week. It had taken me a while to work out the money flows, and he confirmed that I had it pretty much straight. For the doubters, they would say he was simply lying and stringing me along, but that could be said of most people on the forum.
As for disclosing it, I do not consider it my place to do that. It was something confidential I discussed with someone, and it stays that way until Pirate wishes to make it public. There is nothing stopping me from duplicating it, and it's not illegal at all, but it would take a lot of time and effort. I am sure Pirate is happy to be winding it up and being able to get away from it for a while.
Also, not all PPTs are gone, I still have one, just with zero volume until I work out a reincarnation for it.
Anyway, as I wasted most of yesterday, I didn't re-do the OP - I'll do some work on that now.
Hi Patrick, As pirate filed for bancrupcy of BCST....and so has gotten away from it.......is it still necessary to keep his buiseness model secret? You may safe the community from a lot of infighting, if releasing the information. Thank you Zyk |
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"In a nutshell, the network works like a distributed
timestamp server, stamping the first transaction to spend a coin. It
takes advantage of the nature of information being easy to spread but
hard to stifle." -- Satoshi
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Mushoz
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August 30, 2012, 12:58:24 PM |
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Hello Patrick,
Have you considered adding Vescudero to the list? From his thread:
I already sent him my credit data and even got my postal address verified through senbonzakura that also vouch for me before Patrick. Nevertheless this was several weeks ago and as I said, I have not received any answer from Patrick since then.
Yes he did send data some time ago, and over the past day have updated for a couple of additional items - he is now listed in the OP. What about Ciuciu? Did he submit his credit data? |
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bitlane
Internet detective
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I heart thebaron
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August 31, 2012, 11:48:00 PM |
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Hi Patrick,
As pirate filed for bancrupcy of BCST....and so has gotten away from it.......is it still necessary to keep his buiseness model secret?
You may safe the community from a lot of infighting, if releasing the information.
Thank you
Zyk
I realize that English may very well NOT be your first language, but could you at least try a bit harder ? .....and for the record: Pirate has not filed for Bankruptcy. If he has, could you please reference IT with a link ? PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT TO POST WITH AN EXPLANATION. thank you, bitlane |
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Micon
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September 01, 2012, 04:40:11 PM |
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Ok, I've had enough and have to stop this nonsense also. 1) PatrickHarnett - you have given almost all the still-running Ponzi schemes A or AA or AA- fake credit ratings based on nothing. This thread is once again stickied, once again the mods are throwing weight behind your statments. 2) but, these are all blatent scams. And what the fuck is a "bank book" ? oh only 11.1% per month prolly fine / AA- credit rating. Ship Tshirt for new investor. I mean some of these guys aren't even trying anymore and even in the wake of BCST there are still tons of THE SAME EXACT SCAM running 7x in the newly FUDDED "Long-term offers" aka "total fucking scams" ITS CLEAN UP TIME |
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Scott J
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September 01, 2012, 05:13:23 PM |
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Patrick provides a useful tool in comparing the different offers. It's up to each individual to decide how much (if any) they want to risk. Please stop trying to save everyone; let them make their own choices. There's more than enough dissenting opinion across the forum for people to make an informed choice. Ok, I've had enough and have to stop this nonsense also. What else are you claiming to have stopped? |
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ErebusBat
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September 01, 2012, 07:03:42 PM |
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To be fair to Lord Micon I think what he was trying to say (although it was lost in the douchebag=>english translation) is that it appears as though PH is giving very high credit ratings to people who in Lord Micon's opinion are scams.
Perhaps PH can clear up how the credit ratings were assigned for our lord.
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nimda
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September 01, 2012, 08:01:36 PM |
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To be fair to Lord Micon I think what he was trying to say (although it was lost in the douchebag=>english translation) is that it appears as though PH is giving very high credit ratings to people who in Lord Micon's opinion are scams.
Perhaps PH can clear up how the credit ratings were assigned for our lord.
Hmm... I wonder if that's what the table in the OP is for  |
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PatrickHarnett (OP)
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September 01, 2012, 08:58:13 PM |
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Micon is entitled to express his opinion and I'll answer his question fairly. This repeats a lot of material that has gone before.
The thread describes how the ratings are assigned, and the metrics used. Information is provided by different people and I collate the information. It is also very clear that people are expected to do their own due diligence on investments. The ratings are not a personal endorsement of different schemes, and there are some listed that I personally would not invest in.
Further, the ratings are linked to the issuer rather than the issue. Some of the Projects provided by Ziggy and Smart are extremely high risk, and it pays to read their guarantees and rates carefully. The objective is to determine if the issuer has a track-record and ability to repay on the obligations they incur. This is measured by some simple ratios and some other metrics.
1: Commencement - normally you don't get to stay in business a long time if you're stealing people's money. Currently the longest established scheme is from Ziggy and Smart. Pirate actually started sometime in 2011 as well, but he's not rated. Personally, I kicked of lending and deposits back in January.
2: Liabilities divided by monthly income - Having income in bitcoinland is necessary to meet all of those interest payments. This might be from mining (like EIEIO and Imsaguy), or something less obvious. Some times it's diversified investments, loans, trading. Despite what some people claim, arbitrage opportunities are still around for manual traders if they know how (the one I would do currently is about 10%).
3: Business transparency - not just what they're doing with your coins, but how open are they. For example, the Moveto.Fund is pretty transparent, but others are not. Some deposit takers are not prepared to even disclose their financial metrics (and so they don't get on the list). Doesn't mean they are a poor risk, just a different level of risk. As an example, I have 1000 coins with HashKing that I don't worry about, even though he's not in the OP.
4: Liabilities divided by assets - simple metric for indebtedness overall.
5: Current liabilities divided by current assets - an important liquidity measure. Some deposits are on call, others are fixed term. If you request a withdrawal, this helps indicate how likely you are to get your funds back quickly or not. This is also linked to size (value/numbers) that follow.
6: Size of business - funds under management. Some people will successfully accumulate large balance sheets but sustaining them given payouts helps weed out the more risky ones. Also, managing a large number of coins takes a level of skill. For smaller/start-ups, it simply highlights that they don't have the same level of exposure or depth. There is a reason why some chose a big bank over a small one.
7: Size of business - number of customers. Similar to #6, managing 10 customers versus 100 is quite different. Indications are payb.tc had four or five hundred and he had a nice web site. I do mine manually for about 200-ish accounts. The numbers reflect the confidence and service levels. Newer operators need to build that confidence and service, such as RustyRyan or ciuciu. As they establish their track-record, people will be able to look at and ask about the service.
8: Time in business - This is actually quite an aggressive metric because being new means you're going to score badly. Without the track record, you're a higher risk. If you've been around for a year, not so much.
9: Disaster recovery/deadman switch - An adjustment to recognise that many deposit takers are individuals. Provides an indication that if they die, someone can unwind the business.
10: ID - do you know who you are dealing with? Doesn't stop anyone asking for that information directly, and if they are investing a decent amount of coin, they should.
11: Account Limits - Having an open ended appetite for deposits should be a concern. Deposit takers need to be aware of their ability to provide returns and manage their position. A relatively simple thing to do, but not everyone does.
Does all of the above provide certainty? No, of course it doesn't.
Is the casual 10BTC depositor going to request and assess financial information from a dozen different sources and actually receive it? Not likely.
Is having a starting point useful to the community when the alternative is to have nothing? In my opinion, yes.
So, Micon can choose to ignore the collection of data listed in the OP and decide separately if and who the scams are, and who is on the more genuine end of the scale. I will not be judging who is and isn't a scam in this thread because that would be unhelpful to those that wish to use it as a starting point for their own research.
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Micon
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September 02, 2012, 08:31:39 PM |
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Update 28-Aug-2012: Added RustyRyan. The rating is lower than some of the others because he is new and has a small deposit business, but this will improve over time. Update 30-Aug-2012: Added vescudero. Update 2-Sep-2012: Initial credit rating for Namworld and BTC-Bond added. Disclaimers: 1: This OP is being updated as there are a large number of changes taking place with rates this month (August). 2: all reasonable care has been taken to extract valid information and present it fairly. Issuers or eagle-eyed users can either post at the bottom of this thread or pm me to advise changes/corrections. Being listed here is not an endorsement and depositors are expected to undertake their own due diligence before entrusting their coins with someone. Deposit TakersNew Deposit Takers| User_name | Weekly | Monthly | Since | Credit Rating | Notes | Link |
GLBSE fixed interest instruments Information currently out of date - being updated 17-Aug-2012 Other semi-fixed interest instruments| __Issuer__ | __Instrument__ | Weekly | Notes | Link |
For an excellent table of GLBSE returns/yields, please refer to stochastic's thread in "securities" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74711.0
Credit Rating Data| . | . | Liabilities / | Business transaprancy | Liabilities / | Current_liabilities / | Business Size | Business Size | Time in | Weighted | . | . | | Who | __When__ | monthly income | Assessment | Assets | Liquid_Assets | Funds managed | Customers | "business" | Score | Modifiers | Overall | | Starfish BCB | 13-Jul-12 | 4.35 | Transparent | 66.0% | 56.5% | 53876 | 129 | 8 | . | +3 | . | | Rating | Scores | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5.14 | +3 | AAA | | | chungenhung | 13-Aug-12 | 2.00 | . | 25.0% | 80.0% | 16000 | 20 | 8 | . | +0 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | . | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | . | AA | | Smart/ZiggyStar | 13-Jul-12 | 11.60 | Trading/opaque | 70.2% | 67.5% | 8258 | 20?40 | 12 | . | +2 | | | Rating | Scores | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2 | AA- | | | Ineedausername | 22-Jul-12 | 1.08 | . | 18.2% | 18.6% | 35640 | . | 8 | . | +1 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | . | 6 | 6 | 6 | . | 5 | 5.8 | +1 | AA+ | | | Kluge | 22-Jul-12 | 7.12 | . | 45.0% | 20.4% | 8996 | . | 7 | . | +3 | . | | Rating | Scores | 4 | . | 6 | 6 | 5 | . | 5 | 5.2 | +3 | AAA | | | RustyRyan | 29-Jul-12 | 1.17 | Mining/loans | 11.3% | 3.8% | 350 | 15 | 1 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.29 | +2 | A- | | | vescudero | 29-Jul-12 | 3.02 | Opaque | 20.7% | 36.0% | 2550 | 83 | 2 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | - | AA- | | | BTC-Bond | 02-Sep-12 | 0.43 | Holdings disclosed | 2.2% | 0.3% | 32 | 3.2 | 1 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | A- |
Also reference https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.msg1100627#msg1100627 for some general guidance. Notes: Some deposit takers use 30-days rather than one month. The calculation convert weekly to monthly by [(1+r)^(52/12)-1] and similarly, monthly rates are converted back to weekly. Quoting for when all of these fall apart. Patrick should not be giving credit ratings, and they certainly should not be stickied here. |
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DeaDTerra
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September 02, 2012, 08:41:46 PM |
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Update 28-Aug-2012: Added RustyRyan. The rating is lower than some of the others because he is new and has a small deposit business, but this will improve over time. Update 30-Aug-2012: Added vescudero. Update 2-Sep-2012: Initial credit rating for Namworld and BTC-Bond added. Disclaimers: 1: This OP is being updated as there are a large number of changes taking place with rates this month (August). 2: all reasonable care has been taken to extract valid information and present it fairly. Issuers or eagle-eyed users can either post at the bottom of this thread or pm me to advise changes/corrections. Being listed here is not an endorsement and depositors are expected to undertake their own due diligence before entrusting their coins with someone. Deposit TakersNew Deposit Takers| User_name | Weekly | Monthly | Since | Credit Rating | Notes | Link |
GLBSE fixed interest instruments Information currently out of date - being updated 17-Aug-2012 Other semi-fixed interest instruments| __Issuer__ | __Instrument__ | Weekly | Notes | Link |
For an excellent table of GLBSE returns/yields, please refer to stochastic's thread in "securities" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74711.0
Credit Rating Data| . | . | Liabilities / | Business transaprancy | Liabilities / | Current_liabilities / | Business Size | Business Size | Time in | Weighted | . | . | | Who | __When__ | monthly income | Assessment | Assets | Liquid_Assets | Funds managed | Customers | "business" | Score | Modifiers | Overall | | Starfish BCB | 13-Jul-12 | 4.35 | Transparent | 66.0% | 56.5% | 53876 | 129 | 8 | . | +3 | . | | Rating | Scores | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5.14 | +3 | AAA | | | chungenhung | 13-Aug-12 | 2.00 | . | 25.0% | 80.0% | 16000 | 20 | 8 | . | +0 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | . | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | . | AA | | Smart/ZiggyStar | 13-Jul-12 | 11.60 | Trading/opaque | 70.2% | 67.5% | 8258 | 20?40 | 12 | . | +2 | | | Rating | Scores | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2 | AA- | | | Ineedausername | 22-Jul-12 | 1.08 | . | 18.2% | 18.6% | 35640 | . | 8 | . | +1 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | . | 6 | 6 | 6 | . | 5 | 5.8 | +1 | AA+ | | | Kluge | 22-Jul-12 | 7.12 | . | 45.0% | 20.4% | 8996 | . | 7 | . | +3 | . | | Rating | Scores | 4 | . | 6 | 6 | 5 | . | 5 | 5.2 | +3 | AAA | | | RustyRyan | 29-Jul-12 | 1.17 | Mining/loans | 11.3% | 3.8% | 350 | 15 | 1 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.29 | +2 | A- | | | vescudero | 29-Jul-12 | 3.02 | Opaque | 20.7% | 36.0% | 2550 | 83 | 2 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | - | AA- | | | BTC-Bond | 02-Sep-12 | 0.43 | Holdings disclosed | 2.2% | 0.3% | 32 | 3.2 | 1 | . | +2 | . | | Rating | Scores | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | A- |
Also reference https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.msg1100627#msg1100627 for some general guidance. Notes: Some deposit takers use 30-days rather than one month. The calculation convert weekly to monthly by [(1+r)^(52/12)-1] and similarly, monthly rates are converted back to weekly. Quoting for when all of these fall apart. Patrick should not be giving credit ratings, and they certainly should not be stickied here. I don't like when people push other people around especially when it's someone as trusted and respected as Patrick. Stop fucking about Micon and go back to your little ponzi/witch hunt thread where you belong, you are not wanted in these parts of the forums. Stop picking on Patrick, you will only find foes. //DeaDTerra |
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Micon
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September 02, 2012, 08:48:42 PM |
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I don't like when people push other people around especially when it's someone as trusted and respected as Patrick. Stop fucking about Micon and go back to your little ponzi/witch hunt thread where you belong, you are not wanted in these parts of the forums. Stop picking on Patrick, you will only find foes.
//DeaDTerra
DeaDTerra - I am not picking on Patrick. Patrick made outrageous & misleading statements in this thread that are once again going to lead to a large number of BTC users scammed out of their coins. On the heels of BCST I think you should listen to me, I make a very clear point: Here is an actual credit ratings: The fact that you give an "A-" rating to a guy in business for less than 2 months offering to borrow as much money as possible at 3% per week is offensive to any man of science Why the mods decide to sticky misinformation like this is beyond me. |
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PatrickHarnett (OP)
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September 02, 2012, 09:20:47 PM |
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Anyone else is free to provide a better or more complete system. As for being stickied, I think Maged decided that.
For the example given, a 3.29 isn't that great of a score.
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ErebusBat
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September 02, 2012, 11:07:51 PM |
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All hail Lord Micon for without him we would be lost. Our lord is a merciful lord who helps us my telling us where to invest, he helps us stay stong even when we don't want to hear it.
ALL HAIL LORD MICON
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vendor
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September 02, 2012, 11:16:48 PM |
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Could you add V.HRL to "Other semi-fixed interest instruments"? You can have a look at: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100800.msg1101204#msg1101204Below the OP there are some details about the portfolio. Every coin went to GLBSE assets so far. My book will be transparent so lenders can have a look where the money goes, on what risk. The aim is to provide 3% each week as long as GLBSE securities allow it. I will try to maintain a diversified portfolio to keep the risk as low as possible but keep the weekly 3% dividend perpetual. At the first 8 weeks all profit will be reinvested, after that just what necessary to keep the NAV slowly growing. That's my plan briefly. Please have a look and consider to put it up on your list. |
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WifeOfStarfish
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September 03, 2012, 05:09:30 AM |
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I don't like when people push other people around especially when it's someone as trusted and respected as Patrick. Stop fucking about Micon and go back to your little ponzi/witch hunt thread where you belong, you are not wanted in these parts of the forums. Stop picking on Patrick, you will only find foes.
//DeaDTerra
+1 |
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Rassah
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September 03, 2012, 05:38:22 AM |
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I'm assuming these weighted scores are out of 100?
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PatrickHarnett (OP)
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September 03, 2012, 05:47:21 AM |
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I'm assuming these weighted scores are out of 100?
lol, no, 0 to 6. Might change it given the obvious trouble a few people are having after three months of posting. |
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Grinder
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September 03, 2012, 04:50:04 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2012, 06:43:44 PM by Grinder |
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Please stop trying to save everyone; let them make their own choices. There's more than enough dissenting opinion across the forum for people to make an informed choice.
Considering how many people there are who falls for scams that seems unlikely, and there certainly wouldn't be if he followed your advice. When it comes to Patrick I can't quite decide if he's just ridiculously naive or a scammer. Having a ratings scheme which basically is there make more people give him money and where he gives himself top score for completely inverifiable information makes me lean towards a scam. It just seems strange that this many people want a loan that is 10 - 20 times more expensive than a credit card loan. On the other hand the supply of stupid Bitcoin users seems endless, so who knows? |
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zyk
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September 03, 2012, 06:21:13 PM |
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everything depends on how pirate is getting away with this  Cheers Zyk |
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556j
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September 03, 2012, 08:49:09 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2012, 09:00:35 PM by 556j |
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Please stop trying to save everyone; let them make their own choices. There's more than enough dissenting opinion across the forum for people to make an informed choice.
Considering how many people there are who falls for scams that seems unlikely, and there certainly wouldn't be if he followed your advice. When it comes to Patrick I can't quite decide if he's just ridiculously naive or a scammer. Having a ratings scheme which basically is there make more people give him money and where he gives himself top score for completely inverifiable information makes me lean towards a scam. It just seems strange that this many people want a loan that is 10 - 20 times more expensive than a credit card loan. On the other hand the supply of stupid Bitcoin users seems endless, so who knows? The rates are pretty close to payday loans, actually some payday loans are higher by an order of magnitude (or several) than some of the credible lenders here. Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach, SC? I went there by mistake a couple months ago, there was 5+ payday/title loans places within view at all times. Who are the biggest users of payday loans? Drug users probably, what is one of the biggest markets with BTC? The more risk the higher the interest. The rates are not unheard of whatsoever. Another thing you fail to mention is cost of getting the coins. If I want them instantly I have to pay at least 4%. I could take out a loan at 2.5%/w, buy coins at 0.2% fee a slower way (ACH, Cash in mail, SEPA, and so on), and get instant coins for 2.7% rather than ripoff fees from "instant" BTC companies. Now what motive would Patrick Have to make credit ratings for other lenders? The one where you say he has to control to give himself a good (or best) rating is a valid point. But the rest doesn't really make sense to me. By giving other lenders a decent rating he's effectively helping his "competition" (assuming they are all scams) by giving gamblers confidence to deposit in other services to help mitigate risk of default. SO he hurts his own scheme. I guess you could argue that's all part of the plan, but then getting into tinfoil territory. I will concede I think a few of the ones with good ratings are obvious scams. If you read what he does it's just black/white. He doesn't apply morality to anything. He goes off what the deposit taker gives him. Blaming him for good credit rating to a scam would be similar to blaming Nefario for a GLBSE scammer that supplied fake ID. You have more to go off than just his rating. |
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