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Author Topic: realistic rates  (Read 1330 times)
usagi
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May 14, 2012, 10:58:52 PM
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realistic rates
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Stephen Gornick
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May 14, 2012, 11:04:14 PM
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I am a hobbyist investor and I want to invest your cash and make the difference between 10% and what I actually make investing your capital for you

The investment market doesn't even return 10%, so how do you do better than the market?

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May 14, 2012, 11:07:01 PM
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I am a hobbyist investor and I want to invest your cash and make the difference between 10% and what I actually make investing your capital for you

The investment market doesn't even return 10%, so how do you do better than the market?

Magic.
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May 14, 2012, 11:13:49 PM
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The market does not return 10% but I did not say I was going to invest in the market as a whole.

As for "magic" if you think rates like 4% a week or 10-18% a month are realistic you need to think again. 10% annually is extremely realistic for a managed portfolio.

At any rate if someone is interested in investing in this type of security I don't mind sharing all the details with him. Like I said it's essentially a mutual fund, or a bond investing in my investment strategy.

What is the exposure, cagr, max dd, holding time, average per trade, and sharpe ratio for your strategy for the past decade, past year, year-to-date, and year-over-year? Can you post charts with this data? There are many questions someone smart would have before they would seriously invest with you that need to be addressed.
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May 14, 2012, 11:17:14 PM
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I am a hobbyist investor and I want to invest your cash and make the difference between 10% and what I actually make investing your capital for you

The investment market doesn't even return 10%, so how do you do better than the market?

Same as the rest of them round here the tooth fairy shows up and leaves the interest under the pillow.
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May 14, 2012, 11:22:34 PM
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You may have trouble getting peoe to invest because you are so new on the bitcoin scene.  There are also several similar ideas which are already active (one of which is in my sig).

S² Capital Management | #bitcoin-otc ratings | 1M5j2g4iz4mSwkngrYkqtcmKNGmyDAQzk2
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May 15, 2012, 12:13:08 AM
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FWIW if you can't make 10% or more in today's market you really should let someone else handle your money for you..... really.

There are years where even professionally managed money returned <10% or (gasp) lost principal.  Of course no professional would do something as stupid as offer a 10% funds.  There is no way they could guarantee that.  Without a guarantee they (you) would simply be gambling with other people's money.  If you make >10% you keep the profit.  If you don't the customer loses.

What kind of idiot would want that deal?
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May 15, 2012, 02:18:47 AM
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Quote


No offense, but no-one asks questions like "what is the sharpe ratio for the past decade" when investing in a mutual fund.

I do.

But I'm not offended.

And I acknowledge that the Sharpe ratio has an important place in finance, although it's not as important its reputation suggests.

You're rates seem plausible and commensurate with the skills of a decent trader. I have no idea if you're legit, but I support your gumption and would give you the benefit of the doubt until I see otherwise.

(unlike the absurd HYIP rates I see elsewhere)
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May 15, 2012, 02:22:06 AM
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You obviously haven't read what I wrote when I said I would guarantee the rate and against loss, or maybe you have but you just haven't understood it. So I'll just ignore you.

Guarantee with what?  What collateral are you willing to post.  You going to offer a signed contract, with identity verification, and post sufficient collateral to cover investors when your market genius falls short?   Or does your "guarantee" come in the form of 60 whole posts in a anonymous forum?

Also since you will denominate the note in dollars but handle payment in BTC even if you could post sufficient guarantee the only investor it would make sense for is one who believes the annual appreciation of BTC is <10% (for the sake of argument lets pretend the risk of default is 0%).  Otherwise they could simply hold the BTC and earn 10%+.

Since you have me ignored I don't expect an answer but that lack of answer will hopefully keep investors from losing money on your 10% "guaranteed".
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May 15, 2012, 03:09:37 AM
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You obviously haven't read what I wrote when I said I would guarantee the rate and against loss, or maybe you have but you just haven't understood it. So I'll just ignore you.

Guarantee with what?  What collateral are you willing to post.  You going to offer a signed contract, with identity verification, and post sufficient collateral to cover investors when your market genius falls short?   Or does your "guarantee" come in the form of 60 whole posts in a anonymous forum?

Also since you will denominate the note in dollars but handle payment in BTC even if you could post sufficient guarantee the only investor it would make sense for is one who believes the annual appreciation of BTC is <10% (for the sake of argument lets pretend the risk of default is 0%).  Otherwise they could simply hold the BTC and earn 10%+.

Since you have me ignored I don't expect an answer but that lack of answer will hopefully keep investors from losing money on your 10% "guaranteed".

I didn't mean forum ignore, I meant I wouldn't be responding to you. But it seems you are willing to discuss this so I'll point out, just off the top of my head, I can write covered calls on a commodity and get more than 10% return just from that. If you don't believe me, check out the horizons alpha pro series of covered call funds based on commodities, such as the crude oil yield, silver yield, and natural gas yield, all of which pay over 1% a month (over 12% a year). If I had $100k assets under management this means I would make $2,000 a year. Actually not very spectacular, is it? But it's easy work.

Of course, if I do it myself, I don't pay the management fee, and can return that value to shareholders in the form of reduced risk and/or higher coupon rates. Which is why I am willing to guarantee the rate of return. Secondly, those funds in general only write calls on 1/3 to 2/3 of the portfolio. If I sell futures and write covered calls on those I could probably double the return for my investors, while removing price exposure. So as you see 10% is a very conservative estimate I just threw out there, once this gets going I think 15 to 20% per annum would not be out of the question. But just being realistic and so I dont shoot myself in the foot, 10%.

As for collateral, the point is that when you give me money and I invest it into commodities (for example) the commodities themselves are the collateral. If you like I could write them against gold and then send you photos of some gold coins I have in secure storage and/or my posession. Doesn't really make much difference.

As it turns out this thread should probably be closed since it seems GLBSE is the better way to offer something like this. Not sure.. I'm still a little wary of converting large amounts of bitcoin into cash.

Good old covered call strategies... works great unless the underlying ( in this case, commodities ) don't hold up. Which reminds me, the PPI numbers came out last Friday, and we've got the lowest inflation readings since early 2009. I suppose it's a little better than being naked long though.
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May 15, 2012, 03:36:25 AM
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you pay me a certain amount of cash upfront and in return you are paid a floating amount of bitcoins each month.

The mention of "cash" upfront makes this a securities offering governed by law in pretty much every jurisdiction I can think of.  Please provide valid authorisations from your regulator showing you are licenced to advertise for public money, take and hold deposits, satisfy financial and operational compliance and that you are suitably qualified in the business you are undertaking.
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May 15, 2012, 01:16:23 PM
 #12

you pay me a certain amount of cash upfront and in return you are paid a floating amount of bitcoins each month.

The mention of "cash" upfront makes this a securities offering governed by law in pretty much every jurisdiction I can think of.  Please provide valid authorisations from your regulator showing you are licenced to advertise for public money, take and hold deposits, satisfy financial and operational compliance and that you are suitably qualified in the business you are undertaking.
I am assuming he meant BTC when he said "cash"?

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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May 17, 2012, 02:36:09 PM
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Since you started the thread it is up to you to lock it.

Edit your OP, go to additional options and lock it.

It will eventually die a natural thread death.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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May 18, 2012, 02:02:49 AM
 #14

you pay me a certain amount of cash upfront and in return you are paid a floating amount of bitcoins each month.

The mention of "cash" upfront makes this a securities offering governed by law in pretty much every jurisdiction I can think of.  Please provide valid authorisations from your regulator showing you are licenced to advertise for public money, take and hold deposits, satisfy financial and operational compliance and that you are suitably qualified in the business you are undertaking.

I live in Asia.

At any rate, could someone please close this thread? I've decided to run this on the GLBSE, verify my identity with them, and do business entirely in bitcoins.

Thanks for the comments I received here (even the negative ones!) I learned a lot.

Please see:
tsukino.ca/bmf

for more information regarding the Bitcoin Mining Fund on the GLBSE!

Asia is a very interesting place to do securities businesses.  I get updates on the regulation of those market frequently, and it looks like an interesting and evolving area.  If you're going to do something, make sure you check the requirements carefully.

Have fun.
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