Greece mulls Euro exit

[GideonGono]

Some serious players are now publicly talking about what some of us knew was inevitable from the beggining. If ever there was a time to push bitcoin hard on the Greeks now is the time. There is already talk of capital controls, bank runs, reintroduction of the Drachma which will be immediately devalued by as much as 50%. They estimate inflation will also be 50%. Sounds a lot like Zimbabwe 10 years ago.

I suggest we start a bounty and commission a translation of the bitcoin client into the Greek language.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc17uI2G2oc&feature=plcp

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[Stephen Gornick]

Here's an article describing how it could go down:
 - http://www.economicmusings.com/post/22988326533

[barrymac]

http://www.currenciesdirect.com/info-centre/daily-market-analysis/

"The commodity currencies naturally did well on the back of the move, but bullish sentiment remains fleeting at the moment as equity markets in Europe open the week in negative territory. "

Commodity currency anyone? 

[finway]

Why use new currency? Greeks should have the right to use any currency, including bitcoin.

[realnowhereman]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9268507/Greece-on-brink-of-collapse.html

Slow bank run in progress?

Citing a secret government document, he said Greeks were already pulling £80 million a day out of the country’s banks. Almost €1 billion (£795 million) has been withdrawn since the last elections on May 6.

[finkleshnorts]

saw this on matonis's twitter, scary stuff. It's an article laying out different exit scenarios for Greece, and they all suck. http://www.economicmusings.com/post/22988326533/what-history-tells-us-about-a-potential-greek-exit

[Realpra]

Greece should:
1. Default on the loans they can't pay. Its just the ECB paying them right now anyway.
2. Now, they would no longer be able to loan a dime.
3. Not being able to loan a dime, they would be forced to live within their means.
4. Continue using the euro - who can stop them? Enabling inter-European trade.
5. Continue to cooperate with the EU, free trade and travel etc..
6. Build better country as resources are allocated intelligently.
7. No great "cascade effect" ever happens - EU is stronger, Greece a new growing economy.

What is GOING to happen:
1. Goldman Sachs/others will have them paying back their loans until the card house collapses.
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/goldman-secret-greece-loan-shows-two-sinners-as-client-unravels.html)
2. Then it all falls down and mostly small bond investors are screwed over.
3. With everything collapsing huge under-valued asset grabs are made in Greece by the big bankers.
4. Country suffers for at least a decade.
5. Massive amount of resources are/have already been allocated to bankers and politicians.
6. Corrupt elite spends robbed money mostly on robbing more nations and themselves - EU is weaker.

If you are Greek keep your euros in cash or invest in BTC or you will loose every dime.

In the end BTC will probably rise because of all of this.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Greeks, like the rest of the PIIGS sheeple are pathetic brainwashed spoiled brats europinkos: they just want infinite bailouts so that everybody can suck from the ultra-corrupted state tit, and now they are lost when the bill is due and they cannot even imagine a way out of state's and fiat money's dependence. According the polls still 75% of them just want keep the euro-debt-bubble inflating. They cannot even imagine independence, freedom and self-sufficiency. Speaking 'bout the lowest grade of humanity. Disgusting voluntary slaves.

http://webabuser.blogspot.it/2012/05/greeks-going-to-new-elections-since.html

[Shadow383]

Given the scale of what is about to unfold on the international financial markets, I think we're about to get a field test of how good bitcoin is for people circumventing capital controls.
This is going to be very, very interesting.

[oldDirty]

For myself i hope the € is going to end. Greece is nice to start it up. But a shame it cost Germany 90Mrd Euro and it's lost.

[evoorhees]

Greeks, like the rest of the PIIGS sheeple are pathetic brainwashed spoiled brats europinkos: they just want infinite bailouts so that everybody can suck from the ultra-corrupted state tit, and now they are lost when the bill is due and they cannot even imagine a way out of state's and fiat money's dependence. According the polls still 75% of them just want keep the euro-debt-bubble inflating. They cannot even imagine independence, freedom and self-sufficiency. Speaking 'bout the lowest grade of humanity. Disgusting voluntary slaves.

You're such a troll, but I'll bite anyway.

1) Doesn't Goldman Sachs deserve an honorary mention in your blag for their disgusting role as a predatory lender? Guess not.
2) The Greeks might be pathetic, maybe even brainwashed, but by-and-large the Euro zone is relatively self-sufficient. Whatever money-printing they do doesn't get foisted upon anyone else. America on the other hand, has been sucking off the rest of the entire world's teat for decades, courtesy of the dollar's mysterious "reserve currency" status. I wonder how that happened? Why don't you target some vitriol at them instead?
3) I'm sure there's some kind of long-term treatment programme available for your xenophobia.

I don't think he's a troll, and I don't think blahblah was being xenophobic. He's condemning the Europeans for their actions, not for their ethnicities.  His comments are reasonable, though perhaps not diplomatically stated

If goldman sachs deserves blame, it's not for being a "predatory lender" which is a silly term, but rather for their involvement in government coercion and privilege. A lender should lend at whatever best rate he can... if it's predatory then don't take the loan... if you take the loan it means it was your best option and thus thank goodness it was available. There are many things to blame Goldman Sachs for - seeking high rates of return on loans to desperate borrowers is not one of them.

[Realpra]

According the polls still 75% of them just want keep the euro-debt-bubble inflating.

That's amazing if true...

Gawd I hope it all collapses so the world may return to sanity.

[conspirosphere.tk]

You're such a troll, but I'll bite anyway.
1) Doesn't Goldman Sachs deserve an honorary mention in your blag for their disgusting role as a predatory lender? Guess not.
2) The Greeks might be pathetic, maybe even brainwashed, but by-and-large the Euro zone is relatively self-sufficient. Whatever money-printing they do doesn't get foisted upon anyone else. America on the other hand, has been sucking off the rest of the entire world's teat for decades, courtesy of the dollar's mysterious "reserve currency" status. I wonder how that happened? Why don't you target some vitriol at them instead?
3) I'm sure there's some kind of long-term treatment programme available for your xenophobia.

1) Goldman Sachs has been instrumental in faking the Greek accounting to allow its euro entry. Everybody knew at the time like now that Greece like the rest of the PIIGS cooked their books to enter the Maastricht treaty. Biggest responsibilities are to be found in the political eurocrats since day 1 who wanted a so doomed bureaucratic monster coupled with a so dysfunctional fiat money-debt.
2) Self-sufficient maybe. Apart from energy I fear. Of course I do not doubt that USofA is not less corrupted at all levels, nor less doomed in the medium term. They will end at once with the world reserve currency status of the dollar. But the thread is about Greece and euro.
3) LOL. I am a mediterranean PIIG citizen. I despise my fellows since I use to know them quite well. They, their utter corruption, their lack of courage, independence, imagination, their abject dependence from the state power, etc. etc. etc.

[conspirosphere.tk]

According the polls still 75% of them just want keep the euro-debt-bubble inflating.

That's amazing if true...
Gawd I hope it all collapses so the world may return to sanity.
[/quote]
According to my sources, 95% of people want the big corrupt banks to roll over and die.
[/quote]
Real news reports that 3 out of 4 Greeks want the ECB printing more to keep the ponzi going, and no austerity. Talking 'bout spoiled brats:
Greek Opinion Poll Shows 78% Want Greece to Remain in Euro Area
http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Greek-Opinion-Poll-euro/2012/05/13/id/438880

[muyuu]

I'd love it if the Euro was scrapped and substituted with some form of honest money. Obviously this isn't going to happen any time soon because it would imply many banks going tits up, which they will try to avoid at any cost, at massive expense for their citizens.

It was a bad idea to begin with. The EEE was just fine, no need for the EU. Definitely not like this.

[ribuck]

Just think how different the outcome would be if there was a local Greek exchanger swapping cash for bitcoins instantly.

Maybe by the time Spain defaults, all the pieces of the Jigsaw will be in place.

(PS: Realpra is wise.)

[muyuu]

Just think how different the outcome would be if there was a local Greek exchanger swapping cash for bitcoins instantly.

Maybe by the time Spain defaults, all the pieces of the Jigsaw will be in place.

(PS: Realpra is wise.)

I honestly think by the time Spain defaults if that happens, the Euro as we know it would be over already. Spain is not even next in line in term of public debt, not by a long shot.

By domino effect the next one would be Italy, heavily invested in Greece and in a critical situation already. At this point several German, French and Spanish banks are either piece-wise declared bad banks and closed down shortly after, or nationalised (they won't let Deutsche Bank go down). Euro is over already before Spain and France can default and bring Germany down. Extremely hard transition because capital would massively escape the eurozone and seek refuge in the yen, pound, dollar and obviously gold and silver. I honestly don't believe they will let this control tool die, it's their little IV Reich dream, on steroids. Never did they have so much power in Europe.

This would be havoc and I think they will try to kick the can down the road instead. Greece possibly out, but then shortly after massive QE issued and big shares of debt simply paid off by inflation, if not directly written off. Taxpayers and savers will be paying for this the most, one way or the other.

[oldDirty]

It's very simple; 3-4 EU Country's pays all in the "fund", and 18 only takes out the Share, how long can a system stand like this?

[Shadow383]

I'd love it if the Euro was scrapped and substituted with some form of honest money. Obviously this isn't going to happen any time soon because it would imply many banks going tits up, which they will try to avoid at any cost, at massive expense for their citizens.

It was a bad idea to begin with. The EEE was just fine, no need for the EU. Definitely not like this.

I think the question is how long they can continue to defy economic reality.
Ironically the best investment I've made all year will probably end up being a £150 bet I made in January that Greece would exit the euro this year.

The Athens composite index (ATHEX) is now just a few points from being down 90% since 2007.
Capital is leaving greek banks at a rate rumored to be up to 4 billion euros per week (>1% of GDP per week).
They have a youth unemployment rate now approaching 60%, general unemployment approaching 25% and no government for the next month at least.

So they're fucked. What about the others?

Well, the other Eurozone governments are exposed to greek government debt directly to the tune of about 200 billion.
Most of this one way or another ends up being guaranteed by the Bundesbank, who are now owed >600 billion euros by other central banks, who of course have it out on loan to all those failing Spanish and Greek banks, who are actually so bust that Reuters was reporting yesterday that the ECB had stopped supporting them (temporarily, until they realised that said banks would be hours from collapse if they didn't deny it) because their capital base was so depleted that they no longer had enough assets to cover their liabilities and were therefore trading whilst insolvent.
If the Euro fails, and it will, it's a matter of when, not if, then the Bundesbank will suddenly have a stock of loans that are no longer payable in euros, but payable in currencies almost certainly substantially weaker than Germany's own. If they make it out only suffering a 200 billion euro trading loss I'll be very impressed.

I'd bring up the situation in Spain, in Italy, and even further afield outside the EU where Japan has >$5 Trillion in debt that it has not a hope of ever being able to pay back, but frankly that's just way too depressing.~
It's going to be a very interesting couple of years.
Me? I'm just going to go out and spend some of my money, because frankly the way things are going we're heading for a collapse the like of which has never been seen before, and I doubt my paper money will be worth anything when we're done.

[JusticeForYou]

houses will soon be cheep in Greece?

The taxes on that property won't be.