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Author Topic: Speculate about the year 2020  (Read 7542 times)
szuetam
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June 25, 2012, 02:17:07 PM
 #21

Hmm... so if you could buy a house with 1BTC then as long time age there wear gold prospectors there would be bitcoin prospectors who will search through old discs DVD B-D usb sticks looking for not spend, unused Bitcoins forgotten 20 years ago for example because someone had thrown out old usb stick with some BTC and as old maps there would be these forum database and scripts saying that someone had lost his disc due to small error and let couple bitcoin go away.

How do you find that idea? Bitcoin prospectors looking in dumps for old discs etc?
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June 26, 2012, 06:13:32 PM
 #22

Not bad there could even be treasure myths like a sunken silver 10 BTC coin somewhere or a private key hidden in a text as a riddle.

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July 03, 2012, 02:29:45 AM
 #23

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July 09, 2012, 09:22:28 PM
 #24

Well, Bitcoins will probably not be worth much by the year 2020. The supply will increase dramatically, and I'm not sure whether the demand will catch up or not.

Hey there!
szuetam
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July 10, 2012, 07:37:34 AM
 #25

"The supply will increase dramatically"
But how?


BTW If bitcoin will replace most of currency then I will use this compare:
currently FOREX is 3000000000$ per day
Bitcoin is sth about 50000 per day so in $ it is 350000
so it will get to the poin forex is it will increase 8500x (3000000000/350000)
So bitcoin will have power of about 60000 current $ without thinking about population increase, so if it will be like that 100BTC will be enough to live just with bank interest if they won't decrease.
Oh and that speculation point that 1$ will be sth like 10 uBTC.
Who have more precise speculation?



source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market
http://bitcoincharts.com/
molecular
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July 21, 2012, 03:01:48 PM
 #26

Well, Bitcoins will probably not be worth much by the year 2020. The supply will increase dramatically, and I'm not sure whether the demand will catch up or not.

Bitcoin money supply is currently inflating at a rate of 27% per year (7200 BTC / day with 9.5 million BTC in existance = 0.0757% per day)

50% of all bitcoins will exist sometime early November 2012.

What dramatic increase? The rate of increase is falling and has always been falling. By your logic, why did the price increase at all?

Even if demand is constant, price should only fall by 50% due to increased supply.

I can easily imagine the demand doubling until 2020, can't you?

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szuetam
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July 21, 2012, 06:14:44 PM
 #27

In the first place I don't understand why the supply would increase?
It will as I know decrease double in 34 months.
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July 21, 2012, 10:24:48 PM
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You go out of your way to hold a door for someone, and they happen to catch your firstbits, smile, and quickly transfer you a nano-coin from their device.
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July 21, 2012, 10:30:35 PM
 #29

In the first place I don't understand why the supply would increase?
It will as I know decrease double in 34 months.


The rate of increase will decrease (in about 4 months) but it will still be an increase.

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szuetam
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July 22, 2012, 08:01:10 AM
 #30

In the first place I don't understand why the supply would increase?
It will as I know decrease double in 34 months.


The rate of increase will decrease (in about 4 months) but it will still be an increase.
There shoud be 3 to 4 months in my previous post.
OK, I did not understand correctly word supply, and still when I look into dictionaries supply and demand looks for me like a speeds of delivering sth. to the market rather than an amount circulating in it.
Just for curiosity could some native English speaker correct me if I'm wrong?
Because in my understanding in this case supply of bitcoins to the market is amount of bitcoin that people are willing to sell in some period of time (no matter if it is just mined or old BTC (mined years ago), so to describe a supply in a number we should use unit with number of goods divided by unit of time, am I wrong?

And It could increase in bitcoin just if people will start selling bitcoin faster, but I don't understand why could it be, if you meant that?

Could some english native could explain what supply exactly mean?
molecular
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July 22, 2012, 09:42:33 PM
 #31

OK, I did not understand correctly word supply, and still when I look into dictionaries supply and demand looks for me like a speeds of delivering sth. to the market rather than an amount circulating in it.

As I see it, "supply" can either mean the whole amount of something in existance ("total money supply", "above-ground supply of silver") or, in business terms, the "The total amount of a product (good or service) available for purchase at any specified price."

So a misunderstanding like it happened here is not surprising.

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beekeeper
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July 22, 2012, 10:15:52 PM
 #32

FB won its market share for even less.
Most likely BTC will be here in one year, two years.
Now, any sane guy will realize that in one year or more, with ASICs and less reward per block, BTC will just cost x times more.
Now the only question IMO is; who the hell is Satoshi, he do deserve to be listed near Zuckerberg in the Hall of Fame..

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July 23, 2012, 02:01:49 PM
 #33

FB won its market share for even less.
Most likely BTC will be here in one year, two years.
Now, any sane guy will realize that in one year or more, with ASICs and less reward per block, BTC will just cost x times more.
Now the only question IMO is; who the hell is Satoshi, he do deserve to be listed near Zuckerberg in the Hall of Fame..

that would be an insult to Satoshi.

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unclescrooge
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July 24, 2012, 02:33:12 PM
 #34

I don't like dystopia. I'm too optimistic for that.

Anyway good luck Smiley

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July 24, 2012, 05:04:28 PM
 #35

1. Fast food and soda pop are banned and heavily regulated. Marijuana is perfectly legal, though quite-heavily taxed, no one really cares about cigarettes anymore, most people are using liquid nicotine + vaporizers, but every so often someone rolls their own tobacco and gets caught in around half of the US states where it is illegal. In a fit of overzealousness in the name of science, homeopathic and chiropractic methods are made outright illegal in some states (California, Vermont, Massachusetts) but still practiced in secret. Cap and trade is in place, though no one really knows or understands how the state government is measuring CO2, and it varies widely from state to state and sometimes even within a state.

2. Most porn is already or becoming illegal, though most forms of softcore are still allowed as long as it doesn't promote "rape culture". Pretty much every other form of pornography is considered as glorifying rape, but "there are still some misogynists that think porn isn't rape." (The country is definitely heading in this direction, women in their 20s and 30s are finding it increasingly difficult to find husbands, and it's only a matter of time before they put two and two together and realize we don't get married because we quite simply don't have to. When the ultra-feminists take men's porn from them, no one is going to stand up in their defense, certainly not the unmarried women and not the married/divorced men paying child support, who don't like seeing men who have no financial responsibilities enjoying themselves)

3. The government now regulates the Internet. The first justification they used was that "evil corporations" were preventing bandwidth from flowing correctly to the top websites, like Youtube, Facebook, etc. And in fact, it turns out most ISPs did de-prioritize that traffic, for the benefit of their customers. After Network Neutrality is made into law, the ISPs are forced to lobby Congress to allow them to provide different tiers of access, perhaps even tiers with download and upload caps, which succeeds. Once the various Tiers are in place, the IP content holders then request from the ISPs for their records of who is on what Tiers and when it is shown that various individuals in the highest tiers are easily responsible for most of the IP theft, the Supreme Court dictates that ISPs must pay a set penalty per upper tier customer, which is then passed down to the customer for using an Internet connection "likely to result in IP theft". All this is done without revealing people's identities so every business is happy, but the number of people with really nice Internet connectivity drops considerably. Since any tier could be doing something illegal, all traffic is watched, but most people are using some form of anonymity service now, anyway, about half of which regularly report their customer info to the government, anyway, and justify calling themselves anonymous because they hide your identity from other businesses, even if not the government. The people who use these services are too stupid to care that their government is spying on them, they figure the government is already spying on everyone, so what does it matter.

4. Most people refuse to do business with people of an opposing political party, and very few will service Independents. Greens and Libertarians aren't illegal, but due to political machinations and the string of various domestic terrorists in the 20-"teens" (2013-2019) that associated themselves with these two political parties, they are not really considered political parties but rather breeding grounds for domestic terrorism. Partisan hackery dominate the TV and radio waves and most forms of journalism (more on this in a minute).

5. For education, you essentially have two choices, the newer Homeschooler Acts lets you choose to educate your child yourself or via someone within your local community that you trust, you also get to see your child at the end of the day. Or you can hand your child over as a ward of the state, where they are given education and you just check the boxes for whichever days of the week you want the state to continue to hold them. If new legislation passes, the options for them to be held over one weekend per month will be allowed, much to the chagrin of "all those nasty evil religious whackos".

6. Speaking of which, most churches are run like corporations now, they lost their non-profit status and well, "it's better this way" is often used as justification. Marriages are formal contracts bound by the church corporations as a third party, and most disputes are handled by the institution itself, though occasionally arbitrage fails and someone has enough money to lawyer it into an actual court case. Obviously the world is better with churches this way, since they are now also in the business of providing education to anyone that doesn't want to make their child a ward of the state. It probably goes without mention that there are pretty partisan lines between how you educate your children, with very few single (and often poor) parents choosing a religious institution, and very few married parents choosing the state.

7. After a slew of cities went bankrupt between 2012-2014, most of the states created provincial governments with appointed representatives from the state that took on the bankrupcy. A handful of state border disputes were even handled this way. Most of these loans were provided by the federal government to the states via the Federal Reserve, and they were given excellent rates on the loans, and the subsequent inflation that occurred eliminated many of the fiscal problems states had. California even recovered, though Illinois went through a radical internal shift as decades of the political machines heavily entrenched there were brought out in the open and subsequently destroyed, one political operative or insider at a time. Before long, everyone was turning on everyone, and it became difficult to tell who actually was guilty of what since nearly everyone was confessing that everyone else was guilty. In the end very few individuals were actually prosecuted, but most had a moratorium on political involvement within Illinois put on them, and many left for Europe or other US states to work there. The US dollar is still used, but Bitcoin is considered better by pretty much any private, non-government entity. The US gov't does not accept Bitcoin for taxes, and currency exchange between Bitcoin and the US dollar is taxed at a 3% rate. Every corporation, whether it does business in US dollars or via the blockchain is still required to post profits and keep clean books, the gov't considers it pretty irrelevant that people are using Bitcoin since tax laws are still laws. A handful (only a couple thousand) of early Bitcoin businesses that refused to adapt and keep clean records were fined, most of the owners fled the country instead of paying, occasionally one of them is stupid enough to come visit friends or family and gets caught and thrown in prison. GLBSE immediately complied to US government demands for US-based and most non-US based businesses when it became clear Nefario would either have to shut it all down, causing everyone to lose record of everything, or comply. He obviously chooses to comply.

8. Gun rights advocates are pretty much universally-shunned, despite being one of the mre bi-partisan issues of the day, the son of one of the prominent presidents of the national gun owners was found to be an actual Libertarian who later participated in open hostilities with the government, and began advocating the overthrow of the federal government. Eventually he was killed, officials say he opened fire first, but it was later found the weapon he used was planted, no one ever served time and most of the story was covered up. Still, a three-week pregnant DEA (he was raided in a joint DEA-ATF event) agent died. It is believed that most gun owners groups fund domestic terrorism, except the NRA, which avoided most of the blame by being as non-committed to gun rights as they've always been.

9. The vast majority of the press/media is independent and anonymous. At least, any of the media worth watching/reading. The rest of them are political and partisan hacks. Many of the illegal things talked about on TOR blogs and livestreams violate the law, but receiving the broadcasts or reading the posts are not yet considered illegal. The people that do watch the shows do so quietly and try not to even let their friends and family know for fear of...

10. The watchlist. A group of people that are likely to have a higher propensity for committing a crime due to their behaviors. It's just a list that the state and federal (and more often provincial) governments have that corporations are supposed to report any financial interactions with. Most companies dealing with these people are subject to audits, so they try to discourage these folks from coming around to them. In an odd manner, some people use being on the watchlist as a form of public protest, such as doing business purposely with certain entities who promote further state intervention in our lives so they are subject to more/additional paperwork. Even most federal and state gov't bureaucrats are starting to question if having a public watchlist is really in the best interests of the people, but it's been difficult for them to get rid of it because the provincial governments are making so much money from errors the audits reveal that they can't seem to get enough support to get rid of them.

Hopefully this gives you an idea of something that we could get to in 10 years time or so. I get detailed in some areas and less so in others, but it gives off dystopian while still being relatively believable. Not sure if all of these things will actually happen in ten years time, but I do think that certain political issues are about to start reversing.



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July 25, 2012, 12:41:22 PM
 #36

I think in the year 2020 one BTC will be worth around $500 (USD-2011). In nominal terms that might come around 700 to 1000, I expect inflation to be picking up. Millibitcoin will be used for small transactions.

The Bitcoin network will be struggling, with transaction confirmations taking up to several hours, unless very large fees are paid to get past the queue. Scalability improvements will be in the works but as the lead times are long, there won't be any immediate relief.  There will be many bitcoin-backed instruments that can be used for transactions without impacting the blockchain.
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November 13, 2013, 01:23:02 PM
 #37

for example if you want to shower you must use a showerhead which dispenses no more than 2L/minute. if you wanted to buy a regular showerhead you must use bitcoin instead.

I think that would somehow piss off the readers who are not totally virtual with their craftsmanship skills and who would simply drill bigger holes into it. And in case the plumbing wouldn't allow more than 2l/min do a multipath architecture of the water supply. ;-)



Rico

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November 13, 2013, 01:25:15 PM
 #38

pro-tip: The world is not very different to how it is now.

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November 13, 2013, 01:44:24 PM
 #39

pro-tip: The world is not very different to how it is now.

best wishes, it's more like we adapted to fast changes
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November 14, 2013, 03:21:45 PM
 #40

I hope by 2020 the society will (start to) transform from money based to value based one.
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