The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that.

[no to the gold cult]

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

[1714038331]

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[ryepdx]

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?)...

I think you're referring to GLBSE...

Good post, though. I've been a bit worried about a bubble at current levels too, especially with that parabola Mt. Gox was tracing from the $5.58 level to the $8 level. Reminded me of SLV right before the 30% crash.

[no to the gold cult]

Reading this site regarding parabolic ascent in silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/hamilton051311.html

Very interesting. Perhaps btc will top out and crash then, I modify my opinion. Bitcoin will rocket away until after 2013 and then crash, and bottom out over a couple of grand relative to 2011 dollars. By then people might be using shredded 2013 dollars to stuff soft-toys or something.

[BitcoinsWallet]

$1000 a coin... is it's too much for a neraly future...

[ploum]

I think that we should try to concentrate on pessimistic scenarios instead. What could lead Bitcoin to a crash:

1) Not enough market. At some point, investors star to realize that Bitcoin is only a speculative tool and that there are very few websites using it for real. They sell, the bubble crashes. I think that this scenario is very unlikely as all we have to do to avoid that is to make more and more businesses accepting bitcoin.


2) A security flaw in the software. A small security concern might drive the prices down but a huge flaw might be the death of Bitcoin. I think that, the more the time passes, the less likely it is to happen. Indeed, with the price increase, there is more and more incentive to crack the system.


3) Another e-currency appears and offer everything bitcoin has to offer without the drawbacks. That's the real danger I see for bitcoin now. Bitcoin could be the Napster or the Betamax of E-money. The biggest flaw in Bitcoin right now is that it is not user friendly. Addresses are painful to use, the software is ugly (UI looks like a win95 UI), the need for backup of wallet.dat makes it dangerous to use, there's no way to send a message with you payment (which is something you want in most case), there's no way to send a payment to someone you know without asking for a bitcoin address first.

All of those problems can be solved "easily", with online banks and an e-banking protocol on top of Bitcoin. But it remains to be done and, as long as it is not done, someone else could take the lead.

[cypherdoc]

i've posted many times on the forum about this.  i agree with you.

[cindylove]

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

I have to say I agree with you. In fact I think BitCoins could be worth much more than you say. Right now it is still relatively unknown but with the benefits of anonymity and speed it will become the currency of choice for all if not most black market transactions which is worth billions. Just think how useful the currency will be to mexican catels trying to launder money. These people will definately use bitcoin for that.


I play online poker and if you do too I'm sure you're aware of Black Friday. Even gray market businesses will have to use it. I think the best promoter of BitCoins is govt & the current payment providers. The more draconian they become (stopping funding for wikileaks, Amex stopped doing card transactions with legal pot dispensaries in the us etc). Therefore I don't think we need to worry about a lack of market for BitCoin

[PeterSchiff]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

[mewantsbitcoins]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere 

[tiberiandusk]

I won't be happy till I can pay off my students loans with 1BTC. 

[no to the gold cult]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Peter Schiff? Really? I'm honored.

[no to the gold cult]

I saw this post on another forum and think it's worth mentioning here. Bitcoin must be subjected to all rigorous criticism and I'd like to see if the points raised can be countered...

Bitcoin and similar technologies may have a significant role to play in the future, and the technology is legitimately elegant and adeptly applies several modern strains of cryptographical research.  

The recent speculative runup in the main Bitcoin block chain, however, is insane and entirely unfounded.  I can't promise that people buying Bitcoins now will lose money, for no one can easily predict where a bubble will end, but the grandiose claims of most of the people in the official Bitcoin forums are absurd and border on the illegal fraud that is explicitly disclaimed by people like Rezin777.  Investors would be well advised not to risk their money here.  There are several significant reasons for this:

1. Most of the exchanges between Bitcoin and other currencies are illegal or, at the very least, unlicensed and illegitimate.  They likely run afoul of US securities laws and US banking laws.  This is not just a pub-style bull session about law; it is the result of a reasoned consideration informed by legal experts, though of course it does not constitute legal advice to you.  Speaking generally, though, individual users of these exchanges risk having their assets and accounts frozen, risk running afoul of money-laundering laws, and generally risk losing even more than they put into the system.

2. Related, given that the exchanges are entirely unregulated, they can themselves be manipulating the market.  Given that Bitcoin is touted as a distributed currency, it is ironic that there is absolutely no check on "Mt. Gox," the major Bitcoin exchange, through which $200,000/day is (unbelievably) passing.

3. The Bitcoin protocol itself is not robust against denial-of-service and other attacks.  Many on the official Bitcoin forums have noticed this, and some have spelled out the attack vector in detail, but in short, a persistent denial-of-service attack that shuts down Bitcoin entirely can be mounted trivially for about $700,000 and can very likely be mounted with more sophistication at a substantially lower cost.  Indeed, the Google employee who (in a personal capacity) wrote a Java version of part of the Bitcoin client has recognized publicly that any sophisticated analyst could shut down Bitcoin at will, and he explicitly opposed calls for tests of the system's security by the general public.  The system has created the impression of security, but it is not secure.  What ARE secure and robust are the ideas behind the protocol; it is likely that something like Bitcoin will survive, in some form, in the future.  But the main block chain, in which everyone's presumed "wealth" inheres, is of questionable soundness.  (To say that more simply:  Bitcoin as an idea might survive, but it is far less likely that your "bitcoins" will.)

4. Given that technological attacks are possible, a corollary is that economic attacks in the style of securities fraud are possible as well.  If you can disrupt the network at will, you can easily disrupt the network in a strategic way in order to profit from the disruption's effect on the market.  Much unsophisticated analysis of Bitcoin rests on the premise that attacks aren't worthwhile to mount because it would be more profitable, with massive computing resources, to "mine" for Bitcoins, but that entirely neglects (1) the economic motivations that come from market manipulation and (2) ideological, political, regulatory, and commercial competition to the main Bitcoin block chain, which makes attacks relatively more attractive for many parties.

5.  To the extent the official Bitcoin forums have informed investors' views of Bitcoin, they have likely misled the public.  This is interesting from a legal perspective because it amounts to fraud without the individualized intent of fraud (can a mob "defraud" someone when no individual person in the mob is consciously telling a lie from which he or she expects to profit?), but several features of the official forum stand out immediately to informed readers.  These are largely tangents, but they may help paint a more accurate picture of the current users of Bitcoin than the official forums would:

 a. While I said at the outset that Bitcoin is legitimately interesting from a technological standpoint, it is not as creative or novel as most of the adopters seem to think.  Judging from the official forums, the typical adopter is someone with a modicum, but no more, of technical and theoretical experience.  (Perhaps of note:  those who are leading the ongoing "development" of Bitcoin are little different; they are not sophisticated or creative technological thinkers, and they struggle even with the details of the present protocol.  What this means for an investor is that Bitcoin is not practically resilient even to those attacks to which it might respond in theory, such as a compromise of the hash function it mainly uses or the development of a new "mining" technology that cheapens various attack vectors.)  To paint the picture very broadly:  these people know how to run Linux, compile programs on it, and maybe write a few lines of code; they can also evaluate at a very general level the claims of a cryptosystem.  But all except about five people on the official forums have no specific mathematical or systems training, and so the general discussion and enthusiasm creates the impression in a novice that Bitcoin is far sounder than it is.

 b. More obviously, the official forum is filled with disturbing and juvenile, extreme anarchism.  Comments like "I reject all systems of human morality and law" are common.  Uses of Bitcoin to encourage trading in illegal goods and services are routine; even "assassination markets" are encouraged.  Bitcoin as a virtual currency probably does not threaten governments the way that some novices initially imagine upon hearing about the technology, but when the only people buying Bitcoins are (1) engaging in illegal activities, (2) anarchist teenagers who want to promote the technology for ideological reasons, and (3) speculators, sound investors like those in the Fatwallet crowd would be well advised to stay away.  To a mainstream community of investors, however, the deranged rants that are commonplace among early Bitcoin adopters are perhaps reason alone to hesitate to adopt the technology.

6. Probably less significantly, but still interestingly, the Bitcoin block chain has now been demonstrated by at least two good analysts to be able to store arbitrary data "steganographically."  This means that the Bitcoin block chain can contain arbitrary contraband, so that merely by running the Bitcoin client, you may (at least theoretically) be propagating child pornography, Wikileaks, and other material in the style of Freenet and other distributed storage systems.  This is more theoretical than practical at the moment, but it is disconcerting.  How popular would VISA cards be if (say) 4% of them contained contraband information encoded in the holograms on the front of the cards?

NOTHING IN THIS MESSAGE CONTAINS INDIVIDUALIZED LEGAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.  My motives for writing this are a distaste for fraud, even when that fraud is not consciously propagated.  As a researcher, I also have privately made proposals that address some of the technical drawbacks of Bitcoin, but I have no vested interest in seeing Bitcoin as a technology either succeed or fail.

Taken from here: http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1090435/?start=192

I agree with some of what he says, I may even be guilty of some of it myself (this thread in evidence). If ultimately he is right, I'd rather the crash came sooner so that true development can proceed sooner. The upshot will still be worth it. The question is... can the bitcoin implementation of this idea withstand the pressure of the kind of values it must inevitably be expected to bear?

[mewantsbitcoins]

This guy raises few good points, however his posts are biased, there are some contradictions and in general it's written using scare tactics. Investors are cautious people so I guess he was thinking about his audience. I tend to ignore advice from people who have vested interests one way or another

edit: this is the average member's understanding in that forum, so the original poster probably did a very good job

the only thing I know about "hash" is that it it something people smoke in Amsterdam ... and P2P to my knowledge is something that people use to steal intellectual property

so you want me to use hash's and P2P to participate in some kind beanie baby cyber money scheme?

no thanks --- maybe you guys who like this should just create a parallel cyber universe off the internet grid and do just everything over there

[WarrenBuffett]

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Sounds like sour gapes to me.

Yes Peter, you're late the the party once again (story of your life right?).

I believe Bill Gross has been around here for awhile also.

[mcdett]

I saw this post on another forum and think it's worth mentioning here. Bitcoin must be subjected to all rigorous criticism and I'd like to see if the points raised can be countered...

Indeed, the Google employee who (in a personal capacity) wrote a Java version of part of the Bitcoin client has recognized publicly that any sophisticated analyst could shut down Bitcoin at will, and he explicitly opposed calls for tests of the system's security by the general public.

Taken from here: http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1090435/?start=192

Someone have a reference for this claim?

With 250k of usd dollars trading hands daily (if you choose to believe the info out of mtgox), there is much incentive to game the system, and I actually know there are efforts underfoot compromise the blockchain.

I for one would strongly welcome attacks.  Let's get this over with as soon as possible if the protocol implementation and math behind it are not long lasting.

Maybe a bounty in real USD needs to be posted to do exactly that.

[PeterSchiff]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere 

Ignoring your Asperger like comment on my typo ; Good job getting in early mate. So how did you hear about BitCoin (all of you early adopters)?

[paulie_w]

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

[no to the gold cult]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere  

Ignoring your Asperger like comment on my typo ; Good job getting in early mate. So how did you hear about BitCoin (all of you early adopters)?

While returning from work drunk again late one monday night I was approached by this trustworthy looking pair and taken down a dark alley to be shown something cool.

[VPoro]

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. If the hoarders (aka. early adopters) have 1k+ BTC (perhaps even 10k+ BTC?), it's basically a game of chicken: the one that sells first gets a profit in USD, and after he/she has dumped all of the BTC, the price will plummet, and the other hoarders BTC will be worthless (vs. USD, of course, if you like alpaca socks, they won't be . All of the people with a lot of BTC know this, and the counterbalance against selling right now is the possible increase in BTC/USD exchange rate - "why would you sell now, when it could be 12 USD/BTC soon?".

As long as there's no 'real' value to BTC (aka no major merchants accept it, and only a very few selected small businesses do), this is what it boils down to - which one of the hoarders dumps their BTC first

The community, of course, can counter this by creating a real value for BTC: by getting businesses to adopt BTC. However, it may be hard, since as the investment goes up, people do background research, and sooner or later they will bump into the fact that most of the BTC is in the wallets of the early adopters (which is why the poster you quoted referred bitcoin to a pyramid scheme), which makes the economy unstable.

Just my .02 BTC...

[PeterSchiff]

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

Why? Look, if you mined early, it may not be a substantial investment, but that has nothing to do with anything. Let's take an example, let's say I mined early and got an easy 10,000 BitCoins. When I mined it, it wasn't worth much, and cost me "nothing". So far so good. Today, however, those 10,000 BitCoins are worth say, in excess of 60,000$. That's 60,000$, out of "nothing", if you SELL, TODAY. So far so good, but have you ever played the stock market, or FX, or invested in commodities? Well, even these established markets peak and crash.

So how do you feel when there's a security flaw discovered, or everyone moves on to the next great thing, or demand just falls because you can only buy crap, or some kind of negative government interaction takes place and your BitCoins starts tanking in value. Are you okay with losing 60,000$, just because the money was "free".

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

[bernd]

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

Why? Look, if you mined early, it may not be a substantial investment, but that has nothing to do with anything. Let's take an example, let's say I mined early and got an easy 10,000 BitCoins. When I mined it, it wasn't worth much, and cost me "nothing". So far so good. Today, however, those 10,000 BitCoins are worth say, in excess of 60,000$. That's 60,000$, out of "nothing", if you SELL, TODAY. So far so good, but have you ever played the stock market, or FX, or invested in commodities? Well, even these established markets peak and crash.

So how do you feel when there's a security flaw discovered, or everyone moves on to the next great thing, or demand just falls because you can only buy crap, or some kind of negative government interaction takes place and your BitCoins starts tanking in value. Are you okay with losing 60,000$, just because the money was "free".

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

Well, IF you believe that Bitcoin is the Future and it will replace currencies like Dollar or Euro, you will never sell. If you don't there is bound to be a number, i agree. We will see if the hoarders believe in Bitcoin as a currency or as a method to get rich quickly.

[syn]

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

The problem is that most of these people don't look at it this way.  They look at it from the perspective of being part of something revolutionary, and game changing.

I don't want 60k usd out of this, I want to see the foundations of freedom in this world change <-- that is the greater mind set of the current person with large btc holding.

[dacoinminster]

I 100% agree with the logic in post #1. In fact, I recently said something similar myself (see my signature).

[FreeMoney]

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. 

MtGox doesn't display bids more than ~33% from the last trade. Bids go all the way down. There is also the possibility of large hidden orders. And there are the other markets (small) and individuals (unknown, but large imo)

[BitcoinStars.com]

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. 

MtGox doesn't display bids more than ~33% from the last trade. Bids go all the way down. There is also the possibility of large hidden orders. And there are the other markets (small) and individuals (unknown, but large imo)

A key point some opinion makers ignore

[PeterSchiff]

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

The problem is that most of these people don't look at it this way.  They look at it from the perspective of being part of something revolutionary, and game changing.

I don't want 60k usd out of this, I want to see the foundations of freedom in this world change <-- that is the greater mind set of the current person with large btc holding.

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

[gressen]

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

[BitcoinStars.com]

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.

[gressen]

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.

Good point, sir. Have a tip.
Also, are there any practical models that actually promote balanced sharing of wealth?

[Vandroiy]

@"zomg early adopters get too much":

Boo-hoo, person X does not deserve his Bitcoins. Bitcoin initial distribution is by far the best approach I've seen so far. Yes, the makers made the rules so that they can get a neat share in the first month. SO WHAT? I was late too. But do I mind? This is much better than inflation. I rather give absurd amounts of money to someone who was an early supporter of a useful technology than to states who just burn it. Especially if I have to give it once, and the states want to keep the money burning all my life.

But that's the thing. States are there, wasting billions and billions of Euros and Dollars with everybody watching. If somebody pointlessly earns 100 million USD in a Bitcoin rise, who cares? Even ten billion; the EU destroys much, much more every year! It's not even important. And the time frame for the really absurd minting is pretty much over with BTC already at sizable price.

So, IMO, if a hundred people get an unjustified earning of USD 100 million each, I think this is an acceptable loss. The target economy size makes such an event negligible.



@Thread:

I don't believe all you $1000 people. If as many believe that as claim to believe it, price should be higher already. It's mostly people who shout, but aren't sure enough to actually invest. Which should be very profitable if $1000 is actually likely.

This is still far from done. You'll see when it actually is done. Things won't look like a little hacker circle playing with money anymore if that happens. If. Maybe we'll see three-digit prices then. But the real thing, that is many people using BTC in their everyday lives, has yet to happen.

[MoonShadow]

@"zomg early adopters get too much":

Boo-hoo, person X does not deserve his Bitcoins. Bitcoin initial distribution is by far the best approach I've seen so far. Yes, the makers made the rules so that they can get a neat share in the first month. SO WHAT? I was late too. But do I mind? This is much better than inflation. I rather give absurd amounts of money to someone who was an early supporter of a useful technology than to states who just burn it. Especially if I have to give it once, and the states want to keep the money burning all my life.

Added to that, once those early adopters finally decide to take those profits, then those bitcoins are loose in the system, and no amount of gaming or lobbying is going to give those early adopters their advantages back.  It's a one time advantage, whereas fiat currencies are constantly being screwed with to the benefit of some insider or another.  Hell, even the gold and silver markets are manipulated to some degree.

[rezin777]

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

It like this. Some smart fellow invented the wheel. It allowed some dude to do more work with less energy. He had a huge advantage over everyone else who was still dragging carcasses, sticks, and whatnot around using barrows (wheelbarrow without a wheel). A few of the people around him see the benefit of the wheel. They start using it. They start telling their friends. The people on the other side of the world are the last to hear about this fantastic new invention: the wheel.

Now, do the early adopters of the wheel have an advantage over the people on the other side of the planet who haven't heard about it yet? Yes.

Did that make the wheel a poor tool? No! (In fact, we still use it today)

Is it unfair that the people who started using the wheel first had an advantage over the people on the other side of the planet? Maybe, but that's life.

Bitcoin isn't going to stop being useful because the people who saw it's usefulness first might profit from being first. Those who choose to boycott Bitcoin for these reasons will simply have to continue life without having the advantages of this particular useful tool. Time will tell if this becomes a disadvantage for them or not.

[dacoinminster]

But the real thing, that is many people using BTC in their everyday lives, has yet to happen.

This is a common misconception - that bitcoin must achieve widespread usage in order to be obscenely valuable.

As an average consumer, bitcoin doesn't offer me much that I don't already have. If bitcoin must be used for groceries to be successful, I'm selling all of mine today.

As a stock trader, the potential to trade ANY type of contract on ANY security at 100x cheaper price per trade completely anonymously changes everything. I probably won't actually do it myself (at least not at first - I'm too scared of the law man), but other people will do it in hordes.

People in Nigerian internet cafes will be able to bet a few pennies on any stock for any country in the world. Huge hedge funds will be able to place gigantic bets without anyone knowing where the bet came from.

It will be epic, and they will buy a couple of those bitcoins from me.

[FreeMoney]

Big deal, so 20 people get stinky wealthy for being 'early adopters', so what. There will be much more people who will regret for the rest of their days and get ridiculed by grandchildren about buying a pizza for a 10kBTC or selling all their bitcoins for .70$

On this basis you can refuse ever buying shares of Google because Larry and Serge got zillions of them for "free".

In any case most of those initial 'easy' money are going to be sold for peanuts i.e. less than 1000$/BTC.

I'd bet that the guy who bought the pizza for 10kBTC is one of the 20 (or 20000?) who will be stinking rich. No one is going to be ridiculing him, let alone his lucky grandkids. Buying that pizza might have motivated him to ratchet up his collecting. And it might have helped kick start the use of Bitcoin as money.

[MoonShadow]

Big deal, so 20 people get stinky wealthy for being 'early adopters', so what. There will be much more people who will regret for the rest of their days and get ridiculed by grandchildren about buying a pizza for a 10kBTC or selling all their bitcoins for .70$

On this basis you can refuse ever buying shares of Google because Larry and Serge got zillions of them for "free".

In any case most of those initial 'easy' money are going to be sold for peanuts i.e. less than 1000$/BTC.

I'd bet that the guy who bought the pizza for 10kBTC is one of the 20 (or 20000?) who will be stinking rich. No one is going to be ridiculing him, let alone his lucky grandkids. Buying that pizza might have motivated him to ratchet up his collecting. And it might have helped kick start the use of Bitcoin as money.

Ironicly, I'd bet that he doesn't even have 10kBTC anymore.

[mewantsbitcoins]

Look I have nothing against the guy who bought the pizza and you are almost certainly correct in your response. But I can imagine that some grandchild complains like 'come on granny, you've spent on The pizza more than my trust fund worth, double it up'  

'come on granny, you've spent on The pizza more than Zimbabwe is worth'

corrected

[PeterSchiff]

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.

Good point, sir. Have a tip.
Also, are there any practical models that actually promote balanced sharing of wealth?

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

[MoonShadow]

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

Are you aware of the Bitcoin faucet?

[gressen]

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

What stops a large entity from competing with Bitcoin? Nothing. But remember that Bitcoin is not governed by anyone. That creates a level of trust unreachable by any centralized organization.

I'm not saying that unbalanced distribution of wealth is ok. It has simply been pointed out that Bitcoin's wealth distribution is nothing new. I kindly ask again - is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?

[MacFall]

I don't believe all you $1000 people. If as many believe that as claim to believe it, price should be higher already.

I think it will continue to rise quite a bit - one can't ignore the ratio of dollars to bitcoins in considering the possibility of bitcoin becoming a widely-used currency, even if it doesn't replace fiat moneys entirely. But probably not to $10,000 per coin, and here's why - because in a free market for money, there will be lots and lots of different moneys. Bitcoin will have to compete with others of its kind, with hard currencies, with labor notes, and other things. I suspect that it will condense around the techier sorts of markets, with some significant overlap into other areas, but not enough to make 21,000,000 bitcoins represent all 40 quadrillion US dollars or however many there are when the dollar finally bites it. I think that gold and silver will be the most widely used money, as they have been for the last 5,000 years of human history, and bitcoin will merely be measured in grams of gold instead of dollars. Its usefulness as a medium of exchange over long distances, however, cannot be duplicated with physical transfers of metal, or even with "warehouse receipts" for the same, which is why I do not expect it to lose in a truly competitive market for currency. (Presuming it becomes easier to buy and sell with time - the whole buying e-currency A which is the only thing that is accepted for e-currency B which is the only damn thing Mt. Gox will accept frankly sucks).

[rezin777]

is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?

Promoting fingernails, hair, and skin as money?

That was a joke, but my point is that you don't get money for simply existing, you have to do something that other people value in order to earn it. The original adopters (miners) of Bitcoin were doing something, securing the network when it was brand new, regardless of how valuable other people think it is. Who has the right to come along and say, "Hey, give me some of your labor", simply because they feel that past labor shouldn't have as much value as it currently does?

[PeterSchiff]

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

Are you aware of the Bitcoin faucet?

Yes, they offered me about 14c for free in exchange for my gmail login. It seemed like a bad deal. In fact there's not a whole lot I will do for 14c.

[PeterSchiff]

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

What stops a large entity from competing with Bitcoin? Nothing. But remember that Bitcoin is not governed by anyone. That creates a level of trust unreachable by any centralized organization.

I'm not saying that unbalanced distribution of wealth is ok. It has simply been pointed out that Bitcoin's wealth distribution is nothing new. I kindly ask again - is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?

Yes there is, you peg it against gold.
Or, you start BitTulip (BitCoin 2.0), and you make it much harder and slower to produce currency from the onset (barely worth it), and most important of all, you introduce INFLATION into the system to promote spending, not hoarding, and you never cap the total amount of BitCoins that can be produced. If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

[MoonShadow]

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

What stops a large entity from competing with Bitcoin? Nothing. But remember that Bitcoin is not governed by anyone. That creates a level of trust unreachable by any centralized organization.

I'm not saying that unbalanced distribution of wealth is ok. It has simply been pointed out that Bitcoin's wealth distribution is nothing new. I kindly ask again - is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?

Yes there is, you peg it against gold.

There is an established 'early adopter' problem with a gold standard as well.

Or, you start BitTulip (BitCoin 2.0), and you make it much harder and slower to produce currency from the onset (barely worth it), and most important of all, you introduce INFLATION into the system to promote spending, not hoarding, and you never cap the total amount of BitCoins that can be produced. If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

Now I know that you are not the real Peter Schiff, because he would have never written the above paragraph.

[evoorhees]

Please don't tell me there are actually some individuals complaining about an "unfair distribution" of Bitcoins... surely such posts are jokes?

Personally, I hope the early adopters of what could be an immensely revolutionary new monetary system make astronomical profits. I can't think of anything more "fair" than for those who took the earliest risks with Bitcoins to enjoy lavish gains from its success, should it occur.

Cheers to pioneers!

[PeterSchiff]

Please don't tell me there are actually some individuals complaining about an "unfair distribution" of Bitcoins... surely such posts are jokes?

Personally, I hope the early adopters of what could be an immensely revolutionary new monetary system make astronomical profits. I can't think of anything more "fair" than for those who took the earliest risks with Bitcoins to enjoy lavish gains from its success, should it occur.

Cheers to pioneers!

Yeah, such risks they took, pales in comparison to when I was stationed in Kosovo, or when I took time off work for my startup. What great pioneers they were, leaving their computers on for 24 hours a day, never knowing if their CPU or GPU would overheat.

Hypocrites

[PeterSchiff]

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK? WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

What stops a large entity from competing with Bitcoin? Nothing. But remember that Bitcoin is not governed by anyone. That creates a level of trust unreachable by any centralized organization.

I'm not saying that unbalanced distribution of wealth is ok. It has simply been pointed out that Bitcoin's wealth distribution is nothing new. I kindly ask again - is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?

Yes there is, you peg it against gold.

There is an established 'early adopter' problem with a gold standard as well.

Or, you start BitTulip (BitCoin 2.0), and you make it much harder and slower to produce currency from the onset (barely worth it), and most important of all, you introduce INFLATION into the system to promote spending, not hoarding, and you never cap the total amount of BitCoins that can be produced. If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

Now I know that you are not the real Peter Schiff, because he would have never written the above paragraph.

I must agree with you there .

Inflation is key, whether or not Peter would agree.

[m4rkiz]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

do they have to now? multimillionaires don't exist today?

you don't have to play btc game if you think that it is not fair... you don't want to have .02 btc for free, but explain why anyone should give any more of free money to anybody?

[ploum]

I think you should read my article about unfairness and pizza in the BitcoinSun

[Timo Y]

imagine if this was 1850 ...

I think that gold and silver horses will be the most widely used money form of transport, as they have been for the last 5,000 years of human history, and bitcoin railways will merely be measured in grams of gold instead of dollars used by the rich.

Careful with using history as a guide.  Longevity by itself does not guarantee stability.

There is nothing special about gold.  The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.  P2P cryptocurrencies may change that situation in a very short time.

IMO there is a real possiblility that gold will lose its status as a major exchange vehicle within less than a decade.  The result will be a crash in the price of gold that reflects its value in jewellery and electronics alone.

[PeterSchiff]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

do they have to now? multimillionaires don't exist today?

you don't have to play btc game if you think that it is not fair... you don't want to have .02 btc for free, but explain why anyone should give any more of free money to anybody?

Because the current value of a BitCoin is an illusion, but not if we all buy into it...

[Drifter]

Because the current value of a BitCoin is an illusion, but not if we all buy into it...

Every currency value is an illusion until the people buy into it...what exactly is your point?

[stic.man]

Please don't tell me there are actually some individuals complaining about an "unfair distribution" of Bitcoins... surely such posts are jokes?

Personally, I hope the early adopters of what could be an immensely revolutionary new monetary system make astronomical profits. I can't think of anything more "fair" than for those who took the earliest risks with Bitcoins to enjoy lavish gains from its success, should it occur.

Cheers to pioneers!

Yeah, such risks they took, pales in comparison to when I was stationed in Kosovo, or when I took time off work for my startup. What great pioneers they were, leaving their computers on for 24 hours a day, never knowing if their CPU or GPU would overheat.

Hypocrites

nothing more than sour grapes

[PeterSchiff]

Because the current value of a BitCoin is an illusion, but not if we all buy into it...

Every currency value is an illusion until the people buy into it...what exactly is your point?

You just made it for me. But let me spell it out, if this scheme is gonna take off, change the world and create uber rich BitCoin pioneers, we "all" need to buy into it, right now only a few geeks have bought into it.

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion. Currency backed by oil, not an illusion. In the future, perhaps we can have currency backed by energy. Aka, energy options, and I don't mean backed by spent energy, like BitCoins.

[marcus_of_augustus]

IMO there is a real possiblility that gold will lose its status as a major exchange vehicle within less than a decade.  The result will be a crash in the price of gold that reflects its value in jewellery and electronics alone.

"They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumbling-block of their iniquity."

Ezekiel 7-19

[PeterSchiff]

Please don't tell me there are actually some individuals complaining about an "unfair distribution" of Bitcoins... surely such posts are jokes?

Personally, I hope the early adopters of what could be an immensely revolutionary new monetary system make astronomical profits. I can't think of anything more "fair" than for those who took the earliest risks with Bitcoins to enjoy lavish gains from its success, should it occur.

Cheers to pioneers!

Yeah, such risks they took, pales in comparison to when I was stationed in Kosovo, or when I took time off work for my startup. What great pioneers they were, leaving their computers on for 24 hours a day, never knowing if their CPU or GPU would overheat.

Hypocrites

nothing more than sour grapes

lol, I keep seeing that comment , I'm willing to discuss, and perhaps be persuaded, but so far you're doing a terrible job. Geeks gone greedy, hiding behind some noble notion to change the worlds monetary system.

[Drifter]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion. Currency backed by oil, not an illusion.

Is the value of gold not an illusion? Is the value of oil not an illusion?

Any value is an illusion. As long as that value can be applied long term, stored, and is limited in supply, it just makes the process of creating a price easier

[caston]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion. Currency backed by oil, not an illusion. In the future, perhaps we can have currency backed by energy. Aka, energy options, and I don't mean backed by spent energy, like BitCoins.

Bitcoins are not spent energy. Their value comes from the amount of energy required to mine the next block.

[PeterSchiff]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion. Currency backed by oil, not an illusion.

Is the value of gold not an illusion? Is the value of oil not an illusion?

Any value is an illusion. As long as that value can be applied long term, stored, and is limited in supply, it just makes the process of creating a price easier

These things have real value, in today's society, oil more so than gold. In fact our entire economic system is tied to oil prices. Unfortunately we are running out of oil, quickly, so perhaps generic energy options will work better.

[marcus_of_augustus]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

do they have to now? multimillionaires don't exist today?

you don't have to play btc game if you think that it is not fair... you don't want to have .02 btc for free, but explain why anyone should give any more of free money to anybody?

Because the current value of a BitCoin is an illusion, but not if we all buy into it...

You are right, don't buy BitCoin, it is not for you, shift aside .... the thousands of other people queuing up behind you need to get in.

[molecular]

Big deal, so 20 people get stinky wealthy for being 'early adopters', so what.

yeah, and another 9,980 are getting really bloody wealthy.

Whoever invests now, will be one of the 90,000 that become pretty damn wealthy people.

And then theres the 900,000 that... well you get my point.

[Timo Y]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

PeterSchiff, are you an adherent of the Labour Theory of Value by any chance?

How much money we make has very little to do with how much we work.  Our ability to make money is almost entirely a result of the capital we have access to, and you are no exception to that.  Like it or not, that is simply how a modern free economy works.

I make 100 times more money per hour than an Indian rice farmer.  Is this because I work 100 times harder than him? Of course not, in fact he probably works a hell of a lot harder than me. Is it because I am more intelligent? I doubt it, human beings have roughly the same cognitive skills regardless of their culture and technological state.  

It is simply because I have access to:

* Financial capital - Assets that I inherited, assets my employer allows me to use, etc.
* Social capital - I know people who can help me accessing high paying jobs.
* Information capital - My education, my superior internet access, etc.
* Political capital - if the Indian rice farmer decided to move to Europe and compete with me, the friendly government I am living under would point a gun to his head and kindly ask him to return.
* Cultural capital - I was brought up to think innovatively and independently.

...and the rice farmer doesn't.

So if you think it's wrong to make money from capital and that we should all just be making money from work alone, we would probably all end up living like Indian rice farmers.  Are you prepared to do that? No? Who is the real hypocrite then?


PS. Bitcoin will give the Indian rice farmer access to capital that was so far withheld from him by the banking elites.

[PeterSchiff]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion. Currency backed by oil, not an illusion. In the future, perhaps we can have currency backed by energy. Aka, energy options, and I don't mean backed by spent energy, like BitCoins.

Bitcoins are not spent energy. Their value comes from the amount of energy required to mine the next block.

First of all, the value of a BitCoin is rather more speculative than that. Secondly, when the last of block is mined, then what, the value of the energy used to verify transactions, that sounds like a cost, not a value.

How about this, Petrol coins. To create a petrol coin, you must burn one liter of petrol. Over time the cost of creation goes up, and you must burn more and more petrol to create a coin. Now you're saying the value of the current coin is based on how much petrol you need to create the next coin. I say, there must be a system that requires no burning of petrol, cause it's bad for the environment. But here's the killer, if I want to redeem my coin for petrol, I spent almost as much petrol making the coin as it's worth. So I get 1 litre of petrol instead of 2. Brilliant.

[molecular]

If bitcoin must be used for groceries to be successful, I'm selling all of mine today.

You're hording groceries?

(Sorry, I just love pointing out ambiguities in language)

[PeterSchiff]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

PeterSchiff, are you an adherent of the Labour Theory of Value by any chance?

How much money we make has very little to do with how much we work.  Our ability to make money is almost entirely a result of the capital we have access to, and you are no exception to that.  Like it or not, that is simply how a modern free economy works.

I make 100 times more money per hour than an Indian rice farmer.  Is this because I work 100 times harder than him? Of course not, in fact he probably works a hell of a lot harder than me. Is it because I am more intelligent? I doubt it, human beings have roughly the same cognitive skills regardless of their culture and technological state. 

It is simply because I have access to:

* Financial capital - Assets that I inherited, assets my employer allows me to use, etc.
* Social capital - I know people who can help me accessing high paying jobs.
* Information capital - My education, my superior internet access, etc.
* Political capital - if the Indian rice farmer decided to move to Europe and compete with me, the friendly government I am living under would point a gun to his head and kindly ask him to return.
* Cultural capital - I was brought up to think innovatively and independently.

...and the rice farmer doesn't.

So if you think it's wrong to make money from capital and that we should all just be making money from work alone, we would probably all end up living like Indian rice farmers.  Are you prepared to do that? No? Who is the real hypocrite then?


PS. Bitcoin will give the Indian rice farmer access to capital that was so far withheld from him by the banking elites.

I also don't agree with inheritance or old money. In an ideal world we would all start equal, not benefit only because your parents or family are rich. You make your own luck... It goes against equality and worth.

Most of us have had an easier start to our life than your Indian Rice Farmer, and it's unrealistic to think that we in the western world are really interested in sharing our wealth.

But to answer your question, if this is the start of something new, then let's try and be better, not worse. If anyone thinks they deserve to be rich because they mined bit coins early on, then that person is seriously full of shit.

You're a hypocrite because you're justifying why you should be rich for contributing very little. You mined cause you're greedy, just a geek or both. Now you're saying you deserve to be rich, or that you're only into BitCoins because of the monetary revolution.

OMFG, can you hear yourselves. Hypocrites, hypocrites, hypocrites!!!

I'd like to hear at least some of you admit that you're a greedy mofo in it only for it's speculative value and that you don't give a shit about the rest.
Amen

[N12]

I’m in it because a) this technology will change the world, regardless of your ideology, b) it will give us economic freedom and c) I could profit hugely from it.

Without profit incentive, Bitcoin wouldn’t rise this fast. Problem?

[brocktice]

... there must be a system that requires no burning of petrol, cause it's bad for the environment. But here's the killer, if I want to redeem my coin for petrol, I spent almost as much petrol making the coin as it's worth. So I get 1 litre of petrol instead of 2. Brilliant.

Well, conch shells it has to be then. I'm off to register conchcoin.bit

I'm going to invest in a saltwater aquarium right now. In fact, I'm going to set up a whole *farm* of saltwater aquariums.

This is going to be even better than carrots.

[proudhon]

... there must be a system that requires no burning of petrol, cause it's bad for the environment. But here's the killer, if I want to redeem my coin for petrol, I spent almost as much petrol making the coin as it's worth. So I get 1 litre of petrol instead of 2. Brilliant.

Well, conch shells it has to be then. I'm off to register conchcoin.bit

I'm going to invest in a saltwater aquarium right now. In fact, I'm going to set up a whole *farm* of saltwater aquariums.

This is going to be even better than carrots.

Use the aquariums for this instead.

http://www.pugetsystems.com/submerged.php

[berlin]

If you don't have inflation, you have deflation, which means people with "money" will never have to work.

PeterSchiff, are you an adherent of the Labour Theory of Value by any chance?

How much money we make has very little to do with how much we work.  Our ability to make money is almost entirely a result of the capital we have access to, and you are no exception to that.  Like it or not, that is simply how a modern free economy works.

I make 100 times more money per hour than an Indian rice farmer.  Is this because I work 100 times harder than him? Of course not, in fact he probably works a hell of a lot harder than me. Is it because I am more intelligent? I doubt it, human beings have roughly the same cognitive skills regardless of their culture and technological state.  

It is simply because I have access to:

* Financial capital - Assets that I inherited, assets my employer allows me to use, etc.
* Social capital - I know people who can help me accessing high paying jobs.
* Information capital - My education, my superior internet access, etc.
* Political capital - if the Indian rice farmer decided to move to Europe and compete with me, the friendly government I am living under would point a gun to his head and kindly ask him to return.
* Cultural capital - I was brought up to think innovatively and independently.

...and the rice farmer doesn't.

So if you think it's wrong to make money from capital and that we should all just be making money from work alone, we would probably all end up living like Indian rice farmers.  Are you prepared to do that? No? Who is the real hypocrite then?


PS. Bitcoin will give the Indian rice farmer access to capital that was so far withheld from him by the banking elites.

I also don't agree with inheritance or old money. In an ideal world we would all start equal, not benefit only because your parents or family are rich. You make your own luck... It goes against equality and worth.

Most of us have had an easier start to our life than your Indian Rice Farmer, and it's unrealistic to think that we in the western world are really interested in sharing our wealth.

But to answer your question, if this is the start of something new, then let's try and be better, not worse. If anyone thinks they deserve to be rich because they mined bit coins early on, then that person is seriously full of shit.

You're a hypocrite because you're justifying why you should be rich for contributing very little. You mined cause you're greedy, just a geek or both. Now you're saying you deserve to be rich, or that you're only into BitCoins because of the monetary revolution.

OMFG, can you hear yourselves. Hypocrites, hypocrites, hypocrites!!!

I'd like to hear at least some of you admit that you're a greedy mofo in it only for it's speculative value and that you don't give a shit about the rest.
Amen

What's the problem exatly, the profit motive drives bootstrapping a bitcoin economy. So some people end up rich, so what? What they're going to do with the money is buy yachts and big houses and expensive shoes and so on. Who will build the yachts? Who will maintain the big houses and hand-crafted shoes? People who work for a living, this is who. Why should people that work for a living be pissed off to have more customers. everybody want more spending power, for themselves and for others. People that run or work for businesses do at least.

I would have thought the problem with bitcoin is about capital formation, but having a problem that some people got lots of spending power for being early to the system, this doesn't make sense. Sounds like just resentment to me.

Some people also own lots of gold, or land long before any of us were born, some owned shares in Google back when everyone used Lycos or something, does this mean anyone else is against owning gold or land or shares in Google?

Your thought on this is broken.

[MacFall]

imagine if this was 1850 ...

I think that gold and silver horses will be the most widely used money form of transport, as they have been for the last 5,000 years of human history, and bitcoin railways will merely be measured in grams of gold instead of dollars used by the rich.

Careful with using history as a guide.  Longevity by itself does not guarantee stability.

There is nothing special about gold.  The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.  P2P cryptocurrencies may change that situation in a very short time.

IMO there is a real possiblility that gold will lose its status as a major exchange vehicle within less than a decade.  The result will be a crash in the price of gold that reflects its value in jewellery and electronics alone.

Gold has been used as a money for most of humanity's civilized history because it possesses all the necessary qualities for money: it is homogeneous, divisible, durable, and scarce. Bitcoin possesses all of those qualities, but it isn't as durable as gold. The fact is that bitcoin's usefulness as money is dependent on all the same things that gold is, and then it is also dependent on other factors as well. Gold carries no risks for technical failure. Gold will still be useful as money if the internet stops working. Bitcoin has advantages over gold, but they all depend on technology never failing to function as it is now. I don't trust that to be the case, and I suspect most other people won't, either. I value gold for its independence from technology.

[no to the gold cult]

imagine if this was 1850 ...

I think that gold and silver horses will be the most widely used money form of transport, as they have been for the last 5,000 years of human history, and bitcoin railways will merely be measured in grams of gold instead of dollars used by the rich.

Careful with using history as a guide.  Longevity by itself does not guarantee stability.

There is nothing special about gold.  The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.  P2P cryptocurrencies may change that situation in a very short time.

IMO there is a real possiblility that gold will lose its status as a major exchange vehicle within less than a decade.  The result will be a crash in the price of gold that reflects its value in jewellery and electronics alone.

Gold has been used as a money for most of humanity's civilized history because it possesses all the necessary qualities for money: it is homogeneous, divisible, durable, and scarce. Bitcoin possesses all of those qualities, but it isn't as durable as gold. The fact is that bitcoin's usefulness as money is dependent on all the same things that gold is, and then it is also dependent on other factors as well. Gold carries no risks for technical failure. Gold will still be useful as money if the internet stops working. Bitcoin has advantages over gold, but they all depend on technology never failing to function as it is now. I don't trust that to be the case, and I suspect most other people won't, either. I value gold for its independence from technology.

As for me, if the internet stopped working, I suspect I'd have little use for lumps of shinny yellow metal. For me if the internet no longer functioned wealth would be in canned food, guns, ammo, shelter, medicines and basic tools. I guess wealth is a matter of circumstance.

[MoonShadow]

... there must be a system that requires no burning of petrol, cause it's bad for the environment. But here's the killer, if I want to redeem my coin for petrol, I spent almost as much petrol making the coin as it's worth. So I get 1 litre of petrol instead of 2. Brilliant.

Well, conch shells it has to be then. I'm off to register conchcoin.bit

I'm going to invest in a saltwater aquarium right now. In fact, I'm going to set up a whole *farm* of saltwater aquariums.

This is going to be even better than carrots.

Use the aquariums for this instead.

http://www.pugetsystems.com/submerged.php

Ha!  I thought about doing something along these lines with askrol oil, which is used as liquid insulation in large transformers. 

[MacFall]

Wealth is ALWAYS in those things. The little lumps of shiny metal are a medium of exchange. As is bitcoin. And bitcoin does it better, assuming the current level of technology remains functional. But I make no such assumption.

[MoonShadow]

Wealth is ALWAYS in those things. The little lumps of shiny metal are a medium of exchange. As is bitcoin. And bitcoin does it better, assuming the current level of technology remains functional. But I make no such assumption.

Bitcoin required the Internet to get started, but it does not require it's continued existance to function.  If Bitcoin becomes as widely used as the British Pound, or even half as widely used worldwide, then Bitcoin would survive regardless of the Internet because there will be way too many people with a vested interest in it's ongoing success, and many of those people would endeavor to establish new forms of direct peer connections, radio nets, or re-establish existing network infrastructure as a priority.  Although we are not there yet, once Bitcoin is mainstream I can't imagine anything less than a nuclear war actually ending Bitcoin.  And even that wouldn't work once the first full blockchain node is in orbit.

[Timo Y]

Gold has been used as a money for most of humanity's civilized history because it possesses all the necessary qualities for money: it is homogeneous, divisible, durable, and scarce.

You forgot three more: mobile, replicable, and hideable.

And gold is certainly lacking in all three of those.


1) Moving larger quantities of gold from A to B is risky, expensive, and labour intensive.  Moving BTC from A to B is trivial.

2) Since gold is physical, if you lose it, it's gone forever. You can't keep a backup anywhere.  BTC, encrypted and backed up in several places, is practically impossible to lose.

3) Finally, it's very difficult to protect your gold against confiscation/theft by despots and other thugs who are powerful enough and determined enough, as history has shown time and again.

In fact, gold's track record as a safe store of value is pretty lousy given how many times in history people have lost their gold through methods 1) 2) and 3). This happened on a massive scale as recently as WWII.

Really, people just used gold throughout history for lack of better options, not because gold is such good money.

Bitcoin possesses all of those qualities, but it isn't as durable as gold. The fact is that bitcoin's usefulness as money is dependent on all the same things that gold is, and then it is also dependent on other factors as well. Gold carries no risks for technical failure.  Gold will still be useful as money if the internet stops working. Bitcoin has advantages over gold, but they all depend on technology never failing to function as it is now. I don't trust that to be the case, and I suspect most other people won't, either. I value gold for its independence from technology.

As the saying goes ... technology is everything that was invented after you were born.  

Gold depends on technology just like Bitcoin, although older technology.  Without safes and guns to protect it, scales and density meters to measure it, and ships to carry it across oceans, gold isn't awfully useful either.

Bitcoin only needs a very rudimentary low bandwidth internet to keep going. For the internet to stop working totally and  permanently, the world would have to be so fucked that it would be the end of "civilized history" as you put it.  In that kind of Madmax scenario, gold too would lose its usefulness for above reasons.

Bitcoin is perfectly capable of surviving a temporary breakdown of the internet as a result of war or natural disaster. The blockchain is duplicated on millions of machines around the world. It is sufficient for just of few of them to survive in order to reboot the Bitcoin network. A few people would lose their wallets of course but not those who backed them up diligently.  For instance, a QR code of an encrypted version of your private key, printed on a piece of paper, even engraved on a sheet of metal, could easily survive an EMP. Bitcoin is far more durable than you think.

[MoonShadow]

Bitcoin only needs a very rudimentary low bandwidth internet to keep going. For the internet to stop working totally and  permanently, the world would have to be so fucked that it would be the end of "civilized history" as you put it.  In that kind of Madmax scenario, gold too would lose its usefulness for above reasons.

That's a colorful way to put it.  And as I have already pointed out, once even one full node is on a satillite in orbit, even the Madmax scenario couldn't kill Bitcoin even if there were no living humans left to make use of it.

Bitcoin is perfectly capable of surviving a temporary breakdown of the internet as a result of war or natural disaster. The blockchain is duplicated on millions of machines around the world. It is sufficient for just of few of them to survive in order to reboot the Bitcoin network.

Actually, it only takes one full copy of the blockchain somewhere accessible.  It's the Many-Copies-Keeps-Data-Safe method, and might mean that the blockchain is, or soon will be, more safe than the text of the Bible.

A few people would lose their wallets of course but not those who backed them up diligently.  For instance, a QR code of an encrypted version of your private key, printed on a piece of paper, even engraved on a sheet of metal, could easily survive an EMP.

For that matter, a copy of your wallet file on a CD-R or a flash drive kept in a steel safety deposit box should be plenty safe from an EMP.

[ryukafalz]

Actually, it only takes one full copy of the blockchain somewhere accessible.  It's the Many-Copies-Keeps-Data-Safe method, and might mean that the blockchain is, or soon will be, more safe than the text of the Bible.

Of course, the network (or what's left of it) would then be extremely vulnerable to tampering.  If there's only one copy, well, you'd better hope the person with that copy either doesn't know how to mess with it or doesn't want to.

[MoonShadow]

Actually, it only takes one full copy of the blockchain somewhere accessible.  It's the Many-Copies-Keeps-Data-Safe method, and might mean that the blockchain is, or soon will be, more safe than the text of the Bible.

Of course, the network (or what's left of it) would then be extremely vulnerable to tampering.  If there's only one copy, well, you'd better hope the person with that copy either doesn't know how to mess with it or doesn't want to.

You would also have to know that your's was the last copy.

[ryukafalz]

Actually, it only takes one full copy of the blockchain somewhere accessible.  It's the Many-Copies-Keeps-Data-Safe method, and might mean that the blockchain is, or soon will be, more safe than the text of the Bible.

Of course, the network (or what's left of it) would then be extremely vulnerable to tampering.  If there's only one copy, well, you'd better hope the person with that copy either doesn't know how to mess with it or doesn't want to.

You would also have to know that your's was the last copy.

Ah, yes, good point.  Mess with it, two more clients come back online, and there go your ill-gotten funds.

[MacFall]

Good points all around, although I'm not entirely convinced that people will give up a 5000-year-old social technology so easily. I'm not attached to it, but I'm still going to keep some on hand just in case. But the good thing about a free market is it doesn't matter which one of us is right, because nobody's going to force anyone else to accept one way or the other.

[tiberiandusk]

But the good thing about a free market is it doesn't matter which one of us is right, because nobody's going to force anyone else to accept one way or the other.

QFT

[MoonShadow]

Good points all around, although I'm not entirely convinced that people will give up a 5000-year-old social technology so easily. I'm not attached to it, but I'm still going to keep some on hand just in case. But the good thing about a free market is it doesn't matter which one of us is right, because nobody's going to force anyone else to accept one way or the other.

It's always wise not to put all your eggs in one basket.  I don't own any gold, mostly because I don't have a personal use for it beyond it's trade value.  But I do own silver, because even if society were to completely collapse to the point that even silver had no trade value because no one can eat it or shoot with it, I can still use it for it's anti-bacterial properties by dropping it into my raw milk and keep it from spoiling.

I also have a not-small stock of the things one can eat and shoot with, I call that "insurance".

[evoorhees]

There is nothing special about gold.  The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.  

False. There is something special about gold. No other commodity possesses its particular blend of characteristics - and these characteristics make it desirable as a money, thus it is used as such. Lumber and coal do not possess the same benefits as gold, and thus they are not used as money. Same with stuffed animals, buckets of water, and raw iron. Gold is unique in its properties, and its use as money is derived precisely from these properties.

That doesn't mean it's the ONLY good money, or that it will ALWAYS be preferred as money, of course.

And indeed a few of us on this forum believe Bitcoin possesses special characteristics which make it a superior money even to gold! =)

I wrote a piece about this if anyone wants elaboration - understanding money is very important for anyone who wants to encourage the growth of Bitcoin.  http://bit.ly/dk0VzY

[mouser98]

There is nothing special about gold.  The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.  

False. There is something special about gold. No other commodity possesses its particular blend of characteristics - and these characteristics make it desirable as a money, thus it is used as such. Lumber and coal do not possess the same benefits as gold, and thus they are not used as money. Same with stuffed animals, buckets of water, and raw iron. Gold is unique in its properties, and its use as money is derived precisely from these properties.

That doesn't mean it's the ONLY good money, or that it will ALWAYS be preferred as money, of course.

And indeed a few of us on this forum believe Bitcoin possesses special characteristics which make it a superior money even to gold! =)

I wrote a piece about this if anyone wants elaboration - understanding money is very important for anyone who wants to encourage the growth of Bitcoin.  http://bit.ly/dk0VzY

actually, you and forever-d are in agreement.  and i agree as well.  and nicely written article btw.

[Slimquick]

If BitCoins really do become as valuable as the title suggests, what is the quickest way for US residents to convert coins into cash in their bank accounts? (It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)

[MoonShadow]

If BitCoins really do become as valuable as the title suggests, what is the quickest way for US residents to convert coins into cash in their bank accounts? (It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)

I have no idea.  I have no intention of converting my coins to cash.  I just spend them.

[evoorhees]

(It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)

The "maximum transaction amounts" are simply limits of bid orders, correct? And the bid orders is hypothetically unlimited if price is variable (ie- I'd offer to buy an infinite number of bitcoins for $0.00 each). So people can always "cash out" back into dollars, but the question is "at what price" and this dynamic is true of any currency.  The larger the Bitcoin community grows, the more stable the bid price will become over time and the easier it will be to "cash out" at a given price.

[m4rkiz]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.

what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds

[berlin]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.

what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds

Diamonds are not really so rare, the supply of them however has been remarkably well controlled.

[Slimquick]

(It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)

The "maximum transaction amounts" are simply limits of bid orders, correct?

You know, I'm not sure. Is there a place one can go to find out all the fine print about Mt. Gox?

[mikegogulski]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?

The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.

Needless to say, this made me hot.

[marcus_of_augustus]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?

The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.

Needless to say, this made me hot.

Is that like a "hot under the collar" kind of hot or the other kind of "hot" ... ?

[mikegogulski]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?

The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.

Needless to say, this made me hot.

Is that like a "hot under the collar" kind of hot or the other kind of "hot" ... ?

"Hot" as in "ZOMG! Filthy lucre!"

[brocktice]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?

The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.

Needless to say, this made me hot.

Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.

[mikegogulski]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth? The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000. Needless to say, this made me hot.

Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.

Ouch. I'm at least off by an order of magnitude, probably closer to two. $50k x 21m = $1 trillion, plus change. US GDP is something like 12x that, so I'm way off in terms of calculating the money supply. http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article5460.html gives $60 trillion for M3 in 2008, so assuming that M3 is the right number to look at then the per BTC value should be something more like $2.86M/BTC, a lot closer to your figure. And if Bitcoin replaced all M3 currency today, BTC 1 =~ $9.53 million.

Buy and hold, people. Go long

[unk]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

[mikegogulski]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.

[marcus_of_augustus]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

DYODD

[brocktice]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

I'm probably going to buy some of that, LinkedIn has been HIGHLY useful to me, I think they have a good thing going and some excellent data scientists, best in the field. However, I'm going to wait for the post-IPO shakeout first.

That said, the calculation of (world economy)/(# of bitcoins) is of course ludicrous, though it does give a reasonably certain absolute upper bound. I just did it for fun.

[brocktice]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.

Wow almost as bad as my local garden center

[berlin]

I think it is more useful to imagine bitcoin as an internet success, not a world revolution. If bitcoin were as successful as a facebook, or a twitter, widespread, ubiquitous, with apps on smart-phones and bitcoin addresses shown on billboards and so on. 21 billion dollars in bitcoin trade would make the 1000 dollar bitcoin about right I would say. I'm not sure how a 21 billion dollar bitcoin economy compares to something like facebook advertising and data-mining revenues annually. Perhas it would be necessary to talk in terms of estimated bitcoin GDP.

[unk]

'trade' isn't the right measure. if you're looking for fundamental value, it's how much value has been left in the system (used to acquire bitcoins and not 'withdrawn' for something else). the value of a bitcoin on that model comes from its claim against that systemic stored value, in the steady state.

you can never get more for your bitcoins than someone is willing to pay you for them. if every time someone buys a bitcoin with a dollar, someone else immediately cashes it out for a dollar, there is no net change in fundamental demand.

of course, prices in practice don't merely reflect 'fundamental' value because people try to estimate what such value will be in the future, leading to a 'beauty-contest game' or, at best, a rational prediction market in future value.

market capitalization, gross product, and so on are all very misleading in this context, except as very rough indicators of use.

[molecular]

Needless to say, this made me hot.

(looking at your profile picture)... Do you have a rather small head or is that not a cigarette?

[molecular]

please just be careful.

linkedin had an ipo today.  if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.

anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.

BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.

Wow almost as bad as my local garden center

mike was probably making a reference to the dutch tulip bubble of 1637 (http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulip-bubble-of-1637), no?

[shackra]

For instance, a QR code of an encrypted version of your private key, printed on a piece of paper, even engraved on a sheet of metal, could easily survive an EMP. Bitcoin is far more durable than you think.

so, how i extract the private key of my wallet.dat to do that? :O

anyway, i´m a early early bitcoiner, i want bitcoins to buy things i.e: a coffe or a new computer part or donate it to some ONG (like the Free Software Fundation or the Electronic Fontrier Foundation). i dont feel my self like a greed person, the idea of get money without "work" is attractive, but if you think about it, the idea can be boring (no job? what i can do with my free time?).

anyway (again) the Bitcoin Free software need some improvement, everybody know that, and the e-commerces free software need it too (like a drupal e-commerce module with a bitcoin-accept feature).

i belive than we are making a change, if you talk to somebody and tell him about the bitcoins and it´s aventages or the easy how is to buy things in amazon with bitcoins (idea: buy a birthday gift to he/her with bitcoins only!!), this is a slow walk to a best future, IMO.

the other thing is, the bitcoin market looks like make it for northamericans or Europeans only, i wish than buy-sell bitcoins/products get easier for centralamerican people like me! .

[MoonShadow]

the other thing is, the bitcoin market looks like make it for northamericans or Europeans only, i wish than buy-sell bitcoins/products get easier for centralamerican people like me! .

Seems to me that Brazilians have beaten you to the party, but if you want more products from CA or SA, then start selling them!  Depending on where you are, consider selling handmade hammocks.  The kind without spreaders.  I've bought them myself from an importer on Ebay, and I love them.

[Timo Y]

I think it is more useful to imagine bitcoin as an internet success, not a world revolution. If bitcoin were as successful as a facebook, or a twitter, widespread, ubiquitous, with apps on smart-phones and bitcoin addresses shown on billboards and so on. 21 billion dollars in bitcoin trade would make the 1000 dollar bitcoin about right I would say. I'm not sure how a 21 billion dollar bitcoin economy compares to something like facebook advertising and data-mining revenues annually. Perhas it would be necessary to talk in terms of estimated bitcoin GDP.

Facebook/Twitter is little more than a fun toy for most users. Bitcoin is potentially way more useful and serious than that. It takes the internet to the next level.

I'm not saying that Bitcoin will ever have as many users as Facebook, but if it does, market capitalisation will be orders of magnitude higher than Facebook's.

 

[evoorhees]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.

what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds

Gold does not have value "because it is rare, period." There are many rare things - for example a blue cactus is rare, why has it not become the foundation of the global monetary system?  Gold is valuable in part because it is rare, but rarity alone is not a sufficient condition for value.

The real reason gold is valuable is because it has a unique set of characteristics that make it effective as a money (and there are wonderful parallels to Bitcoin in this regard). This piece explains it: http://bit.ly/dk0VzY

Similarly, Bitcoin's value comes only in part from its rarity - but the larger part of value is its effectiveness as money due to its characteristics (secure, private, decentralized, diminishing rate of inflation, etc.)

[mikegogulski]

mike was probably making a reference to the dutch tulip bubble of 1637 (http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulip-bubble-of-1637), no?

Indeed.

[m4rkiz]

Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.

what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds

Gold does not have value "because it is rare, period." There are many rare things - for example a blue cactus is rare, why has it not become the foundation of the global monetary system? 

because it is not practical having plant as currency, and you can grow many of them for almost free which is deal breaker

[brocktice]

BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.

Wow almost as bad as my local garden center

mike was probably making a reference to the dutch tulip bubble of 1637 (http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulip-bubble-of-1637), no?

Yes, I know. Unfortunately I've seen quite a few people mistakenly compare bitcoins to tulips.

[freedomno1]

Well this is a bit necro but it makes an interesting point this forum was discussing this when bitcoins were 8 dollars now their much higher than at that time so who knows how far the bitcoin will go

[Herbalconfusion]

valid necro is valid. OP is almost prophetic.

[tclo]

It is worth what people are willing to pay for it right now...no more and no less.  So you think it is "really" worth $1000 when everyone else thinks it is worth $64 ?  

Ok nothing wrong with living in your fantasy land but you have to open to people pointing this out on occasion, which is what I'm doing here.  

BTC is worth $64.58 and the moment and it will see $30 before it sees $300.  Of course in a few years, we could see the collapse of a major currency and another BTC bubble could form, but that is a different subject.  That is then and this is now and BTC is not worth $1000...not remotely close to it.

[jubalix]

1) Not enough market. At some point, investors star to realize that Bitcoin is only a speculative tool and that there are very few websites using it for real.

At some point, some of Bitcoin's market segments WILL experience a loss of confidence. This could happen gradually, leading to a tapering-off of Bitcoin's price growth, or it could happen suddenly, leading to a big drop. No-one should be surprised when this happens. it will happen at least once. Personally I think we're a long way from when it will happen.

I think the short-term risks are:

1. A serious problem at MtGox (e.g. an outage lasting a week or more), which would dent the credibility of Bitcoin in a big way. Not for existing users, but for anyone considering getting into Bitcoin. This would depress the price in a big way.

2. A serious attempt by the government to stifle Bitcoin. Or even just a credible statement of desire to stifle Bitcoin.

This guy [1] prophetic

[kalinka]

I'll sell you my .06 bitcoins I have left for $1000/coin. Deal?

[yocko06]

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

[DastanX]

someday someday

[rat]

I think that we should try to concentrate on pessimistic scenarios instead. What could lead Bitcoin to a crash:

1) Not enough market. At some point, investors star to realize that Bitcoin is only a speculative tool and that there are very few websites using it for real. They sell, the bubble crashes. I think that this scenario is very unlikely as all we have to do to avoid that is to make more and more businesses accepting bitcoin.


2) A security flaw in the software. A small security concern might drive the prices down but a huge flaw might be the death of Bitcoin. I think that, the more the time passes, the less likely it is to happen. Indeed, with the price increase, there is more and more incentive to crack the system.


3) Another e-currency appears and offer everything bitcoin has to offer without the drawbacks. That's the real danger I see for bitcoin now. Bitcoin could be the Napster or the Betamax of E-money. The biggest flaw in Bitcoin right now is that it is not user friendly. Addresses are painful to use, the software is ugly (UI looks like a win95 UI), the need for backup of wallet.dat makes it dangerous to use, there's no way to send a message with you payment (which is something you want in most case), there's no way to send a payment to someone you know without asking for a bitcoin address first.

All of those problems can be solved "easily", with online banks and an e-banking protocol on top of Bitcoin. But it remains to be done and, as long as it is not done, someone else could take the lead.

everything this guy said.

[zakoliverz]

$1000 a coin... is it's too much for a neraly future...

quite interesting look at the prices now.

[iammagicmike]

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.

[freedomno1]

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.

I'll go to your concert Show them that in the end Alternate Virtual Currencies are here to stay

[dimaz]

I want bitcoin be 1000$

[Its About Sharing]

It is worth what people are willing to pay for it right now...no more and no less.  So you think it is "really" worth $1000 when everyone else thinks it is worth $64 ?  

Ok nothing wrong with living in your fantasy land but you have to open to people pointing this out on occasion, which is what I'm doing here.  

BTC is worth $64.58 and the moment and it will see $30 before it sees $300.  Of course in a few years, we could see the collapse of a major currency and another BTC bubble could form, but that is a different subject.  That is then and this is now and BTC is not worth $1000...not remotely close to it.

Well, if it is worth what people will pay, how do you come up with $64.58? I mean you don't back that with anything, sort of ironic?  

There are roughly 11 million bitcoins right now, that is nothing in financial terms. Just for comparisons sake, Amazon has 452 million outstanding shares. And now with bitcoin we are talking about a currency / commodity / technology. We really don't know what we are dealing with here. Now, I'm not saying Bitcoin is Amzn, but in times of financial worry, a new currency that protects people from the goverment might be one of the more worthwhile stores of value around. Most of the bitcoins being held by the early adopters are doing that - being held. The available trading volume is quite small. Now VC money is moving in. Not to mention there is still a huge waiting line for account confirmations at MTGOX (and I am not pro Gox).

Just doing some simple math and looking at the probable supply being much much less than 11 million, would put the bit coin price much higher. The recent run up showed that. Now, it looks like something is up in the USD world - The vast amount of puts hitting gold lately is very suspicious, especially considering the time and that 2 very large mines (one in Utah) are offline. The US Bond market can be hit any day now, many economists have called it. So, you can't look at bitcoin using traditional value.

I think Bitcoin is an intermediary to where we are really going (moneywise), but in the meantime, money might start flooding into bitcoin. I don't think governments will take it lightly, but I also think they (and us) will have bigger things to worry about if more banks start pulling a Cyprus...

IMS

[tclo]

Well, if it is worth what people will pay, how do you come up with $64.58? I mean you don't back that with anything, sort of ironic?  

That was the market price when I typed that.  Since then, it went down to $50 and then up to $80 and now back down to $65.88 at this moment.

Anyway this volatility kills its use of being a viable currency.  I bought some BTC on MtGox and transferred it to Bitstamp and in the 20 minutes it took to transfer, the price dropped 10% on me.  Imagine if you deposit money into your bank and it drops 10% before you can even use it...very very bad.

BTC is a great idea, but it wasn't executed well enough.  It will never widely be used as a currency but perhaps it will change the world by inspiring someone else to create a virtual currency that works better as currency.

And I love Bitcoin and all you guys are smarter than me for getting into it so early because you probably made a lot of profit at this point.  For me, it is a fun daytrading instrument to speculate on.  But back to the original point, it isn't worth $1000, it's worth $65.40 now.    

I'm not saying it won't ever get to $1000 as who knows what a major currency crisis could do for it with more speculation and another bubble forming.  But it's not worth $1000 now unless you can find someone who will give you $1000 for 1 BTC.

[BitDreams]

Exchanges and funds (in the united states) with the ability to leverage and short bitcoin will draw down volatility - at least in theory.

I believe too many people have discounted the Winklevii factor and I'm betting with the twins.

[caiaphas]

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency. 

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained. 

[Its About Sharing]

tcio and caiaphas - I think we are confusing the issue here. First, I really doubt that any bitcoin proponent would say that bitcoin is ready to be a stable currency, for many reasons. But key word is "stable". As you said caiaphas, it is too volatile. But the reasons it is volatile are because it is new, the currency markets all over the world are a mess (as are the bond markets), etc. In a sense bitcoin is reflecting that uncertainty (and there isn't a military behind it.  )

The confusion arises in misplacing our saying whether or not it is ready NOW as a currency/commodity/trade unit, with where it will be once things settle down. It is in the EARLY, very early stages. Think back to the internet when Amazon was $5 a share. That is where we are now. Maybe even more like .20 being that this is a currency and doesn't "split" to allow for growth and liquidity. Our liquidity is in decimal places.

And caiaphas, most merchants dealing with bitcoins immediately trade them for dollars/Euros/etc. and don't hold them as bitcoins. Now, once it does develop into a currency and is stable, relatively so, then that will change. For now, this is a part of the process.

With Bitcoins small float, if it is successful, YOU WILL NEED JUST ONE. Think about what I mean by that.

A thousand dollar valuation when there are only 11 million shares right now is nothing, absolutely nothing. We can't look at it as worth $1000, but rather do the math. There just aren't enough of them to be that "cheap". We will definitely be trading bitcoins in fractions.

Now, at this time there is speculation and that is partially why the price is where it is. But the coming collapse of many global currencies along with what looks like near hyperinflation, means that saying bitcoin is worth $1000 is not really saying much. Once that inflation starts hitting us, then you will see the price explode, but it won't be as meaningful, it will be like the 1920's level inflation in Germany. (e.g. - Coins worth 1DM were then minted to be 500 or more!)

IMS

[molecular]

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency.  

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.  

The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.

[caiaphas]

Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Bitpay turns bitcoin into a payment processor using the protocol aspect. It matters not what the price of bitcoin is then, does it?  Thanks for making my point.  Bitcoin has little value if not for the USD.  My point is that no vendor in their right mind is going to accept bitcoin as a currency.  It's too volatile.

The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.

Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.  Once the world discovers bitcoins are only useful for gambling and illegal substances, it's true value will be discovered.  Which in my opinion is way below $1000.  Let's meet up again in 20 years and see who has won.

[Frozenlock]

Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty (...)

So far no argument as to why it has value.

(...) and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.

What? Gold is a soft metal and is heavy as sh*t. Really not a good engineering resource.

Some electronics perhaps? Ok, how much should gold cost based on that?

[molecular]

Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Bitpay turns bitcoin into a payment processor using the protocol aspect. It matters not what the price of bitcoin is then, does it?  Thanks for making my point.  Bitcoin has little value if not for the USD.  My point is that no vendor in their right mind is going to accept bitcoin as a currency.  It's too volatile.

You are correct. Bitpay in its current form is simply competition for paypal. It's currently a little cheaper, it can be anonymous and has no chargeback risk, but it might not scale well and the decentralized nature is not really necessary in this case. Paypal can simply lower its fees to outcompete bitpay.

I'm not really sure what your point is. You say it's that no vendor in his right mind is going to accept bitcoin. That's like saying (in the early 90s) noone in his right mind is going to use email because not enough other people are using it. Email has little value without a printer and scanner. Well guess what: we're not sending so many faxes any more, are we?

The volatility will decrease.

The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.

Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.  Once the world discovers bitcoins are only useful for gambling and illegal substances, it's true value will be discovered.  Which in my opinion is way below $1000.  

Corporeality, shiny- and prettyness are not necessary features of a money and these properties surely don't determine the price of gold. Do you think people and central banks fill their vaults with gold and take it out every day to look at it and this gives them so much satisfaction that they need more and more gold to look at?

Once the world discovers gold is only useful for looking at it, its true value will be discovered, which in my opinion is way below $10.

No man, it really doesn't seem to work like that. There must be something else that gives gold its value >$10. There must be something else that gives bitcoin a greater value than $1 ($1 would likely suffice to support all gambling and silkroad and wordpress).

Let's meet up again in 20 years and see who has won.

ok

[Hei_]

all asics out > high diff > bitcoin over 300$+?

[virtualmaster]

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth? The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000. Needless to say, this made me hot.

Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.

Ouch. I'm at least off by an order of magnitude, probably closer to two. $50k x 21m = $1 trillion, plus change. US GDP is something like 12x that, so I'm way off in terms of calculating the money supply. http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article5460.html gives $60 trillion for M3 in 2008, so assuming that M3 is the right number to look at then the per BTC value should be something more like $2.86M/BTC, a lot closer to your figure. And if Bitcoin replaced all M3 currency today, BTC 1 =~ $9.53 million.

Buy and hold, people. Go long

Bitcoin is worth for both short and long time deposit, therefore M3 is more appropriate to consider.
So by 1BTC=1.000 USD this year bitcoin would hold only 0.01% of the world money supply.

[Luckybit]

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency. 

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained. 

Bitpay cashes out Bitcoin payments instantly. Read about it.

[Luckybit]

tcio and caiaphas - I think we are confusing the issue here. First, I really doubt that any bitcoin proponent would say that bitcoin is ready to be a stable currency, for many reasons. But key word is "stable". As you said caiaphas, it is too volatile. But the reasons it is volatile are because it is new, the currency markets all over the world are a mess (as are the bond markets), etc. In a sense bitcoin is reflecting that uncertainty (and there isn't a military behind it.  )

The confusion arises in misplacing our saying whether or not it is ready NOW as a currency/commodity/trade unit, with where it will be once things settle down. It is in the EARLY, very early stages. Think back to the internet when Amazon was $5 a share. That is where we are now. Maybe even more like .20 being that this is a currency and doesn't "split" to allow for growth and liquidity. Our liquidity is in decimal places.

And caiaphas, most merchants dealing with bitcoins immediately trade them for dollars/Euros/etc. and don't hold them as bitcoins. Now, once it does develop into a currency and is stable, relatively so, then that will change. For now, this is a part of the process.

With Bitcoins small float, if it is successful, YOU WILL NEED JUST ONE. Think about what I mean by that.

A thousand dollar valuation when there are only 11 million shares right now is nothing, absolutely nothing. We can't look at it as worth $1000, but rather do the math. There just aren't enough of them to be that "cheap". We will definitely be trading bitcoins in fractions.

Now, at this time there is speculation and that is partially why the price is where it is. But the coming collapse of many global currencies along with what looks like near hyperinflation, means that saying bitcoin is worth $1000 is not really saying much. Once that inflation starts hitting us, then you will see the price explode, but it won't be as meaningful, it will be like the 1920's level inflation in Germany. (e.g. - Coins worth 1DM were then minted to be 500 or more!)

IMS

You're thinking 5 years from now in 2020.

[yocko06]

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.

That's exactly right all the people who refused to get on at $.70 always come and let me know how bitcoin is broken whenever there is a crash after a big rise. They read the articles and then think they are experts because someone else called it a bubble.

"Yeah I know it crashed to $50. after it rose from $5. to $260. in a couple of months lol I made $45. per btc in that bubble did you? oh that's right you still haven't bought. Well now it's heading back up to $100. you should buy some." 

The better I do on bitcoin the more these people are hoping bitcoin crashes and I lose because they don't want to admit they where wrong. They will probably buy bitcoin at $1000. and not tell anyone then panic sell for $400. in a drop then panic buy again at $1000.
 

[Ivica]

The better I do on bitcoin the more these people are hoping bitcoin crashes and I lose because they don't want to admit they where wrong. They will probably buy bitcoin at $1000. and not tell anyone then panic sell for $400. in a drop then panic buy again at $1000. 

This will probably stay like this for 2-4 more years.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Whatever those people say, a typical Vladimir Club member has now 6 digit per day paper losses or gains on their bitcoin holdings recently. This is going to turn into daily 7 digit losses and gains before long. Whatever those statists say is fucking irrelevant in comparison. FFS daily ebb and flow on a such portfolio will be soon higher than lifetime earning expectation of those braindeeads who are incapable of independend thinking. All I can do now  is to point them to this http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WdrSP0V-KLg#t=167.5s

Weird huh?

Vladimir Club members better like volatility or invest in ulcer medicine ...

Have we picked out an Island yet ... I can't wait to try out the secret pass-phrase ... something to do with carrots wasn't it?

Bitcoin mining, does it worth it?

[virtualmaster]

If only 1% of the Argentinians put their savings in bitcoin or Zimbabwe is really making bitcoin reserves then the bitcoin price will not stop at 1.000$.
Anyway it seems that somebody started to invest greater amount in bitcoin.

[Its About Sharing]

tcio and caiaphas - I think we are confusing the issue here. First, I really doubt that any bitcoin proponent would say that bitcoin is ready to be a stable currency, for many reasons. But key word is "stable". As you said caiaphas, it is too volatile. But the reasons it is volatile are because it is new, the currency markets all over the world are a mess (as are the bond markets), etc. In a sense bitcoin is reflecting that uncertainty (and there isn't a military behind it.  )

The confusion arises in misplacing our saying whether or not it is ready NOW as a currency/commodity/trade unit, with where it will be once things settle down. It is in the EARLY, very early stages. Think back to the internet when Amazon was $5 a share. That is where we are now. Maybe even more like .20 being that this is a currency and doesn't "split" to allow for growth and liquidity. Our liquidity is in decimal places.

And caiaphas, most merchants dealing with bitcoins immediately trade them for dollars/Euros/etc. and don't hold them as bitcoins. Now, once it does develop into a currency and is stable, relatively so, then that will change. For now, this is a part of the process.

With Bitcoins small float, if it is successful, YOU WILL NEED JUST ONE. Think about what I mean by that.

A thousand dollar valuation when there are only 11 million shares right now is nothing, absolutely nothing. We can't look at it as worth $1000, but rather do the math. There just aren't enough of them to be that "cheap". We will definitely be trading bitcoins in fractions.

Now, at this time there is speculation and that is partially why the price is where it is. But the coming collapse of many global currencies along with what looks like near hyperinflation, means that saying bitcoin is worth $1000 is not really saying much. Once that inflation starts hitting us, then you will see the price explode, but it won't be as meaningful, it will be like the 1920's level inflation in Germany. (e.g. - Coins worth 1DM were then minted to be 500 or more!)

IMS

You're thinking 5 years from now in 2020.

i think I made that clear. But, we really have no idea as the current global financial system is getting closer and closer to breaking. Really hard to predict.

[molecular]

all asics out > high diff > bitcoin over 300$+?

no. difficulty follows price, no the other way around.

[marcus_of_augustus]

all asics out > high diff > bitcoin over 300$+?

no. difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

... it is not just that simple, more nuanced than that ... as vladimir is saying, I think?

[smoothie]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Someone sounds butthurt they missed the bitcoin train. lol

[coinnewb]

all asics out > high diff > bitcoin over 300$+?

no. difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

... it is not just that simple, more nuanced than that ... as vladimir is saying, I think?

I think so.  One of the attack vectors against Bitcoin depends on network hash rate (i.e., difficulty), so one could argue that higher difficulty will make potential attacks against the network more costly.  Assuming that the price of Bitcoin factors in this very potential cost, higher difficulty will give room for higher price IMHO.

[ThatDGuy]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Someone sounds butthurt they missed the bitcoin train. lol

Damn, no kidding! That guy definitely burned out instead of fading away!:

Date Registered:    May 14, 2011, 09:18:54 AM
Last Active:    May 17, 2011, 10:50:33 AM

Here are his last words to all of us:

...
OMFG, can you hear yourselves. Hypocrites, hypocrites, hypocrites!!!

I'd like to hear at least some of you admit that you're a greedy mofo in it only for it's speculative value and that you don't give a shit about the rest.
Amen

[lophie]

Who revived this mummy?  , But seriously, Bitcoin added so much value in my life ever since I was first introduced to the idea back in 2011, You have to actually put some effort into understanding Bitcoin in order to appreciate it otherwise either you are a blind speculator or a retarded flamer.

[freedomno1]

Who revived this mummy?  , But seriously, Bitcoin added so much value in my life ever since I was first introduced to the idea back in 2011, You have to actually put some effort into understanding Bitcoin in order to appreciate it otherwise either you are a blind speculator or a retarded flamer.

This thread is quite old I sort of revived it a while back and now it necro revives now and then  
That and smoothie probally wanted to necro own someone haha
Usually reappears when there are a lot of bears around saying bitcoin is doomed lol and or some bulls on the other end
That's why that quote is mummy tastic thread is old
My original intent was to illustrate a point when the bubble crashed from 220 to 100 and some in change and say that people were complaining at $8 bucks when there was another crash
Man have we come far hehe
That an the original conversation was quite interesting in 2013 time

[BittBurger]

i enjoyed it.   its a good read.

And you're right.   5 years from now it will be interesting to see where this thread led to ...

[vintagetrex]

Yes those amazing investments from Zimbabwe are going to push BTC through the roof!!!

jk lol

Invest in innovation, invest in the world's first cryptographic corporation: Anarcorp

[freedomno1]

i enjoyed it.   its a good read.

And you're right.   5 years from now it will be interesting to see where this thread led to ...

Maybe an archive like the Pizza for Bitcoins XD

[Taras]

So how much longer until the first bitcoin that sells for $1,000 makes the press?
Place your bets, grab your popcorn...

[tclo]

yes chart is looking very strong..could be another mini bubble but won't drop to 65 after this one. 

I guess the volatility is here to stay but BTC has a bright future and we may see $1000 in the next couple of years...or sooner, who knows.  A major currency crisis somewhere would obviously supercharge it.

[ronimacarroni]

I dont think bitcoins is worth $1000
Right now bitcoin is good for store value and speculation, but as a currency is a has a long way to go.
I want to see more bit signs on those price tags.

[elor70]

It will be worth 1000$ somewhere in the future

[Dorrace]

readıng thıs at the fırst 1-2 pages realızıng the date ıt was posted ın early 2011. holy fuck

[frente]

It will be worth 1000$ somewhere in the future

I think there's 60% chance that it will touch $1000 in 2014 and 99% in 2015.

[Dorrace]

It will be worth 1000$ somewhere in the future

I think there's 60% chance that it will touch $1000 in 2014 and 99% in 2015.

well thınk about how the coın jumped up ın the last 2 years. ıf you look at prıce averages over the last 6 months ıt has rısen a bıt. that 200 dollar was a bıg spıke but ıt stabılısed . perhaps ıt really can

[DyslexicZombei]

Which is a 60% greater chance? BTC at oh $5 or BTC at $1K in 2014-2015?  

As a network engineer and an amateur futurist I think we'll see someone or some group ship low cost, self-powered pop up mesh networks by then as Moore's Law continues to take effect on IT hardware costs & demand for high speed wireless in non-traditional areas surges all over the world. I'll let you imagine a worldwide invisible mesh network that is best utilized via a non-centralized crytocurrency or set of cryptocurrencies (to the point where spell checkers quit flagging both of these terms!)

Nice find BTW! Way to mine the archives. 

[Dorrace]

Which is a 60% greater chance? BTC at oh $5 or BTC at $1K in 2014-2015?  

As a network engineer and an amateur futurist I think we'll see someone or some group ship low cost, self-powered pop up mesh networks by then as Moore's Law continues to take effect on IT hardware costs & demand for high speed wireless in non-traditional areas surges all over the world. I'll let you imagine a worldwide invisible mesh network that is best utilized via a non-centralized crytocurrency or set of cryptocurrencies (to the point where spell checkers quit flagging both of these terms!)

Nice find BTW! Way to mine the archives. 

ıts a gamble you dont know exctly whıch way ıt wıll swıng because yes there ıs a chance ıt can drop down to 5 bucks and yes there ıs a chance ıt can go up to 1,000 but the 5 bucks ıs a bıt more belıevable sınce we have seen ıt there before, people seem to have a harder tıme tryıng to belıeve somethıng they have not seen before but ı dont blame them.


but consıderıng network dıffıculty rıses and bıtcoın ıs beıng more wıdely accepted now though ı prefer ıt a method of hoardıng my moneys.

[teukon]

ıts a gamble you dont know exctly whıch way ıt wıll swıng because yes there ıs a chance ıt can drop down to 5 bucks and yes there ıs a chance ıt can go up to 1,000 but the 5 bucks ıs a bıt more belıevable sınce we have seen ıt there before, people seem to have a harder tıme tryıng to belıeve somethıng they have not seen before but ı dont blame them.

A market rate of more than 71 USD/BTC suggests that the market finds a future value of 1000 USD/BTC more likely than one of 5 USD/BTC.  An investor that finds 5 USD/BTC more believable than 1000 USD/BTC should want to sell.

[virtualmaster]

The forces which are moving the bitcoin prices are changing in every stage.
Between 100$ and 1.000$ they are small to middle size economic interests.
When bitcoin prices will achieve 1.000 $ it will be enough liquidity for bigger deals also.
May be the OPEC countries will make a conference to sell oil only for bitcoins instead of USD and that will move the bitcoin price toward 10.000 USD. (only the rumor that could happen)

[Dorrace]

ıts a gamble you dont know exctly whıch way ıt wıll swıng because yes there ıs a chance ıt can drop down to 5 bucks and yes there ıs a chance ıt can go up to 1,000 but the 5 bucks ıs a bıt more belıevable sınce we have seen ıt there before, people seem to have a harder tıme tryıng to belıeve somethıng they have not seen before but ı dont blame them.

A market rate of more than 71 USD/BTC suggests that the market finds a future value of 1000 USD/BTC more likely than one of 5 USD/BTC.  An investor that finds 5 USD/BTC more believable than 1000 USD/BTC should want to sell.

wel thats exactly what ım sayıng ı belıeve the coın wıll move up to 1,000 but also because ı want to belıeve.

but also ı see enough evıdence to suggest ıt wıll. but alot of people are skeptıcal and wont belıeve somethıng tıl they see ıt ın whıch case they wıll stop and say "oh well ı should have bought bıtcoın back when ıt was $150"

[ixne]

People are too eager to put significance on what is essentially only a psychological milestone. Bitcoin developments drive the price, not the other way around.

[Dorrace]

People are too eager to put significance on what is essentially only a psychological milestone. Bitcoin developments drive the price, not the other way around.

yes thıs ıs what ım sayıng. but thıs has atleast a 40% factor ın the prıce as well. ıf more people belıeved the prıce would go to 1k more people would buy thus raısıng the value

[monkeybars]

Bitcoin is already up 1000% this year, and it's only September.

Bitcoin's average annual rate is about 1275%. Even if it misses that level by 50%, it'll hit $1000 in Autumn next year (2014).

[ixne]

Bitcoin is already up 1000% this year, and it's only September.

Bitcoin's average annual rate is about 1275%. Even if it misses that level by 50%, it'll hit $1000 in Autumn next year (2014).

Ha, made me think of xkcd:

[Wary]

Bitcoin developments drive the price, not the other way around.

Both ways around It's a positive feedback loop. Infrastructure, awareness, price -they all push each other up.

[ANiceJewishBoy]

Please share these ideas here for noobs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328203.0
(some of which are probably future power players, since Bitcoin is booming right now and big people are probably coming in)

&
Don't forget Bitcoin day:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=329422.0

[MoonShadow]

Bitcoin broke through the $1000 per BTC price point today, November 27th, 2013 on the MtGox exchange.

[jeppe]

As bitcoin has passed the 1000$ mark there is nothing to stop it !! in my opinion bitcoin should be worth a lot more !

[501]

LOL @ some of the responses from 2011 saying "it's OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow"

[malumeze86]

LOL @ some of the responses from 2011 saying "it's OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow"

So where do we stand today?   

I know, this is an old thread, but I'm bored. 

[b!z]

LOL @ some of the responses from 2011 saying "it's OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow"

So where do we stand today?   

I know, this is an old thread, but I'm bored. 

bitcoin is OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow past $5

[malumeze86]

LOL @ some of the responses from 2011 saying "it's OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow"

So where do we stand today?   

I know, this is an old thread, but I'm bored. 

bitcoin is OBVIOUSLY a bubble and will never grow past $5

I knew it couldn't break the five dollar mark.  Never, ever, ever,  it just wasn't possible....  :-)

[caston]

I think the recent ATH proves that bitcoin is worth at least $1000. I'm struggling to believe it's worth $20,000 though. Who will keep buying btc past 20k, 30k and so on?

[gabmen]

I think the recent ATH proves that bitcoin is worth at least $1000. I'm struggling to believe it's worth $20,000 though. Who will keep buying btc past 20k, 30k and so on?

Its funny looking back at old threads and comparing the situation now to then. It did hit the 20k mark but went spiraling down from there. I don't think btc though is going ti be worth 1k only. Currently we're testing the 8-9k support with the market looking really bearish and india saying crypto isn't legal. Who knows, im pretty confident though as this has happened before already

[Dudeperfect]

Well, crypto is a wild market in behaviour and hence they always recommend you to invest not more than what you can afford to lose. If you are not comfortable in investing in it then you shouldn't do it. However, I am sure you must have your exceptions from the market based on the research and if you have faith in your research then holding is recommended. I have seen 35% loss on my particular investment but I was still confident about it and as expected, I sold that investment with 15%+ profits within few weeks.

[jhonnydeep87]

Bitcoin like a shiny little metal bunch is a good tool for exchange and bitcoin does it better. Given the assumption the current level of technology is still functioning, but I am not making assumptions about it.

[ICBCOK]

BTC is a great idea, but it wasn't executed well enough.  It will never widely be used as a currency but perhaps it will change the world by inspiring someone else to create a virtual currency that works better as currency.

[dimastegar]

On the 4th of May of 2018, Bitcoin Price touched 10k dollars. And this is a comparable mine for the loyal holders of BItcoin. And we are also lucky to see Bitcoin has brought the trend of Digital currency globally and thoroughly. Bitcoin is the choice of the future.

[sashulya7979]

Good points all around, although I'm not entirely convinced that people will give up a 5000-year-old social technology so easily. I'm not attached to it, but I'm still going to keep some on hand just in case. But the good thing about a free market is it doesn't matter which one of us is right, because nobody's going to force anyone else to accept one way or the other.

[Dmitry.Vastov]

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

I think bitcoin is still 10000$ and this valuation of bitcoin is of inflated one which is rises in the last week by 20% and this inflation in the valuation has encouraged millions of people to again invest into bitcoin and I too know that bitcoin has that potential also that its valuation could also inflate to much higher values but in present people consider bitcoin a bubble that is not trust worthy and could burst any time and moreover governments and media are also demotivating people from investing into bitcoin and thus the valuation remains low.