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Author Topic: After 1 year of diversified bitcoin dice house bank investment we lost 32.46%  (Read 17460 times)
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pawel7777
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January 01, 2015, 11:38:24 PM
 #81

PRCDice launched a new version and went back to 'Pocket Rockets Casino' brand

https://pocketrocketscasino.eu

They now offer multiple investment risk options.

Are you going to stay at 1x kelly?

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January 07, 2015, 01:23:19 AM
 #82

I see you updated the table on the website but you didn't updated this post. I'm sorry because I found your advices useful.

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January 07, 2015, 01:04:54 PM
Last edit: June 22, 2015, 03:43:34 AM by Bitcoin Betting Guide
 #83

Hi guys, it has been so long between updates because we moved the Dice Investment Comparison to a whole new website called the Bitcoin Dice Guide. We decided to make the Bitcoin Betting Guide just about sports betting so we have a whole site dedicated to bitcoin dice. We just launched it yesterday and we still have a lot of pages and content to add in the coming weeks.

We are back in profit overall.

The last couple of weeks has seen more the ฿4000 turned over at BitDice yet profit continues to decline.

PRC has improved their website, going back to the Pocket Rockets Casino branding, their total invested has decreased quite a bit.

Peace of shit Ice Dice is broken again and I am not optimistic for the future. If it was just my money I would pull it out asap but for the purpose of the table I guess I will ride it out. Or perhaps I should not because if it fails the table will be way in the negative again and these are meant to be real life stats and in real life I could see the failure coming and did not want to keep the funds in there...

Win88 had a big fortnight with the investment going from 1.25 to 1.35, if that continues they will soon overtake Pocket Rockets Casinofor top spot.

Here is the new ulr http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/dice-investment-comparison/  and what the site looks like, feedback and ideas are welcome.


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January 07, 2015, 02:26:36 PM
 #84

Nice to see separate website just for dice sites.

But you really need to update it, remove Ninja and Dicebitco.in and add the new ones.
You don't have to invest in every single one of them to make a review.

It would be useful to update the current reviews when appropriate. You really should mention multiple investment risk options on the new PRC site (and give them some extra points for that).

Peace of shit Ice Dice is broken again and I am not optimistic for the future. If it was just my money I would pull it out asap but for the purpose of the table I guess I will ride it out. Or perhaps I should not because if it fails the table will be way in the negative again and these are meant to be real life stats and in real life I could see the failure coming and did not want to keep the funds in there...


I don't know what's the issue with IceDice, but if you don't feel comfortable keeping any funds there - just divest! And invest in any of the new sites instead (if you trust them enough).

Just put an asterisk (*) next to the name and appropriate footnotes, i.e.:

* divested on [date] because of..
** invested X BTC on [date].

something like that.

And if you decide to invest in new sites, you don't need to put whole 1 BTC on each. 0.1 or 0.01 would give the same % return value.

I don't think updating the table (divesting/new investments) will mess up the results. You'll have to do it anyway, sooner or later, if you want to provide meaningful, up-to-date insight.

One of the new sites worth checking is https://safedice.com/, their official thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=868275.0

Friendly operators, responsive and quick with fixing bugs and implementing new features. House edge is only 0.5% (variable) so that's their advantage over others. They could focus a bit more on promoting tho.

They're accepting investments upon request (with no minimum).

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January 07, 2015, 10:08:09 PM
 #85


Win88 had a big fortnight with the investment going from 1.25 to 1.35, if that continues they will soon overtake Pocket Rockets Casinofor top spot.


I wouldn't be so sure about that. Someone has just lost BTC152 on PRC. You just can't predict things like that... But they do seem to be getting a lot of action since the launch of 2.0.

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January 07, 2015, 10:15:38 PM
 #86

I have to admit this is very interesting and tempting oportunity. but as always its risk as well.
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January 07, 2015, 10:27:00 PM
 #87

win88 is pretty nice

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January 23, 2015, 04:46:54 PM
Last edit: June 22, 2015, 03:44:16 AM by Bitcoin Betting Guide
 #88

All figures are updated and it’s not pretty. See the table here

http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/dice-investment-comparison/

In the last 2 weeks Peerbet had a nice bump from ฿1.07 to ฿1.132.

Poket Rockets Casino went from ฿1681 invested to ฿2661 and ฿135275 bet to ฿146375.

Our BitDice investment went from ฿1.046 to ฿1.064 with site invest growing from ฿1290 to ฿1506 and around ฿10,000 bitcoins wagered!

With 10,000 coins wagered in 2 weeks at both Poket Rockets Casino and BitDice site profit should have gone up a lot more, we say this about BitDice over and over again, it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.

I am unable to login to CoinWin and it shows no bets and no balances. This is probably another runner but because I only noticed it today I will give it a while. If the anonymous operators are out there please contact me to return my ฿1.141

IceDice appear to have done a runner costing me another full bitcoin. For about 3 weeks the site has just been a grey screen saying

The system is down for maintenance

It'll be back shortly.

and the operator is not answering emails. I am not that surprised, I should have seen it coming by the multilevel marketing program and previous problems.

4 months in and we have lost 11% due to 2 sites scamming us. Even before the IceDice loss a friend asked me what bitcoin dice site I recommend he invest in, I told him none of them. They are run by the B team or the C team and the operator incentives are perverse (they make more money disappearing or fudging the numbers than running the site honestly).

People are recommending I add new sites that have the same business model and risk profile as those that have just scammed me. They could literally be run by the same people. Unless the site gives me the ฿1 to invest this would be idiocy on my part.

I am glad to see there is a lot of discussion about trustless solutions, when this is in place I will again consider recommending people invest in bitcoin dice sites. For now the ecosystem is full of snakes and amateurs and is best avoided. That realisation has made this a worthwhile experiment and I will keep adding to and improving the Bitcoin Dice Guide.

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January 23, 2015, 05:21:10 PM
 #89


With 10,000 coins wagered in 2 weeks at both Poket Rockets Casino and BitDice site profit should have gone up a lot more, we say this about BitDice over and over again, it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.


But PRC's profit have gone pretty high. Problem is the amount invested have grown by higher % then the amount wagered, so your share in profits got diluted. Not to mention that many investors are on higher kelly option. If you are on 0.5 Kelly (default option when moving to the new site) you should change it to at least x1.

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January 23, 2015, 09:24:58 PM
Last edit: June 22, 2015, 03:44:49 AM by Bitcoin Betting Guide
 #90


With 10,000 coins wagered in 2 weeks at both Poket Rockets Casino and BitDice site profit should have gone up a lot more, we say this about BitDice over and over again, it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.


But PRC's profit have gone pretty high. Problem is the amount invested have grown by higher % then the amount wagered, so your share in profits got diluted. Not to mention that many investors are on higher kelly option. If you are on 0.5 Kelly (default option when moving to the new site) you should change it to at least x1.

Spot on, PRC's actual return is in line with their expected return (expected return is based on the edge and turnover, see it only on the investment comparison table) so I am not suspecting them, Peerbet is close enough and CoinWin/DiceNow have so little volume its hard to make any conclusions. Win88 do not publish the data so I guess they should be suspected by default.

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January 23, 2015, 11:26:30 PM
 #91

shitty luck but I guess that's part of what happens when you are also investing in the lesser dice sites. though dice ninja did seem like a reasonably good one while it was live but not so much with the last two.




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FIND OUT MORE AT MINTDICE.COM
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January 24, 2015, 12:24:46 AM
 #92

I am wondering what amounts you use to calculate "Bank turnover" (and therefor "Expected annual return".) I mean BitDice's BR has 2 big investors on 10x kelly. Their virtual bankroll is 4340. The 1 BTC investor's share is 1/4340 not 1/960. So I am not sure if you use 960 or 4340. It looks like 960 though, which would give x4.5 higher wrong results than the real expected results. With DiceNow it's the same.
Time to re-read what I said.

Although I removed my investment at BD because I cannot put my own kelly, their math does work out imo.

Their profit is even closer to expected than any other site:

Profit: 870.8 BTC
EV: 873.2 BTC
Profit/EV: 99.7%

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January 26, 2015, 04:23:25 PM
 #93

Ice-Dice is down for last 2 weeks and all our funds are gone. I have 2.1 BTC there.

Anyone this some?
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January 28, 2015, 03:49:18 PM
 #94

I am wondering what amounts you use to calculate "Bank turnover" (and therefor "Expected annual return".) I mean BitDice's BR has 2 big investors on 10x kelly. Their virtual bankroll is 4340. The 1 BTC investor's share is 1/4340 not 1/960. So I am not sure if you use 960 or 4340. It looks like 960 though, which would give x4.5 higher wrong results than the real expected results. With DiceNow it's the same.
Time to re-read what I said.

Although I removed my investment at BD because I cannot put my own kelly, their math does work out imo.

Their profit is even closer to expected than any other site:

Profit: 870.8 BTC
EV: 873.2 BTC
Profit/EV: 99.7%

I've emailed this guy two weeks ago telling exactly the same, except we have weighted bankroll at B13655, and he counts it by B1510. All his math is wrong.

PS: This week V3 will be released where you can set kelly by yourself, among other updates Smiley

With 10,000 coins wagered in 2 weeks at both Poket Rockets Casino and BitDice site profit should have gone up a lot more, we say this about BitDice over and over again, it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.

You forgot that for 4 month we were above expected profit 1.2% to 1.6% to be exact and now just got back to expected. The same is for PRC they were lower expected 1% for some time until recently somebody lost few hundreds BTC there and now they at 1%. So we aren't unlucky and don't fake turnovers. The problem is how you count profits.

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January 28, 2015, 07:26:21 PM
Last edit: January 28, 2015, 07:37:54 PM by dooglus
 #95

it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.

It's quite possible that they are just unlucky. At Just-Dice even after over a billion bets and despite having a house edge of a full 1% we only had something like 0.38% profit. It turns out that most of the volume is in relatively few relatively large bets from a couple of big players, so the fate of the profit depends on their luck. You might that that after a billion bets the law of large numbers would start to assert itself, but when 99% of those bets are effectively "dust", that's not the case.

Since relaunching, the profit at Just-Dice has pretty consistently been over the expected 1%. That's just as bad as being under 1% in that it makes things look suspicious.

Even before the IceDice loss a friend asked me what bitcoin dice site I recommend he invest in, I told him none of them. They are run by the B team or the C team and the operator incentives are perverse (they make more money disappearing or fudging the numbers than running the site honestly).

People are recommending I add new sites that have the same business model and risk profile as those that have just scammed me. They could literally be run by the same people. Unless the site gives me the ฿1 to invest this would be idiocy on my part.

You should try monitoring the site that invented crowd-sourced bankrolling, Just-Dice. It is run by the A team. We love it when a plan comes together, fool.

I'd be happy too give you 1 BTC worth of CLAMs to invest for the purposes of comparison. Set up an account and PM me with details and I'll send them over.

I am glad to see there is a lot of discussion about trustless solutions, when this is in place I will again consider recommending people invest in bitcoin dice sites. For now the ecosystem is full of snakes and amateurs and is best avoided. That realisation has made this a worthwhile experiment and I will keep adding to and improving the Bitcoin Dice Guide.

That's my biggest regret re. coming up with the idea of crowd-sourced bankrolls. It is a great vector for scammers to get their hands on large quantities of other people's money.

I recently implemented a way of partially addressing that problem. Investors on Just-Dice no longer have to deposit the full amount they want to invest onto the site. They can deposit just part of it and keep the rest in their own local wallet but declare the full amount as the amount they want to invest. That way if the site gets hacked or the operator turns rogue they only lose the fraction they deposited. In effect each investor is responsible for taking care of their own share of the "cold wallet". There's no big cold wallet for the operator to steal. See 'What is "offsite investment"?' on the FAQ tab at Just-Dice.com for more information.

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   1% House Edge
pawel7777
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January 28, 2015, 09:07:07 PM
 #96


Since relaunching, the profit at Just-Dice has pretty consistently been over the expected 1%. That's just as bad as being under 1% in that it makes things look suspicious.

If I remember correctly, Doge-Dice had much higher profit than JD. Maybe it's just people are braver/taking more risk when playing with altcoins.

I'd be happy too give you 1 BTC worth of CLAMs to invest for the purposes of comparison. Set up an account and PM me with details and I'll send them over.


OP, take the offer!

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January 29, 2015, 03:09:19 AM
 #97

I have an account on JD. Gimme 1 BTC worth of CLAMs. I currently have a handful there, and no intention of taking it out, so why not bump it up to 1 BTC worth. hehehe.

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MultiDice
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January 29, 2015, 08:58:25 AM
 #98

OP: would you be so kind to review and include MultiDice in your list. We accept investments at 1% commission and operate crowd-funding bankroll.

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January 29, 2015, 09:09:58 AM
 #99

OP: would you be so kind to review and include MultiDice in your list. We accept investments at 1% commission and operate crowd-funding bankroll.

Did you read his terms?

People are recommending I add new sites that have the same business model and risk profile as those that have just scammed me. They could literally be run by the same people. Unless the site gives me the ฿1 to invest this would be idiocy on my part.

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   1% House Edge
MultiDice
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January 29, 2015, 01:58:41 PM
Last edit: January 29, 2015, 09:20:44 PM by MultiDice
 #100

OP: would you be so kind to review and include MultiDice in your list. We accept investments at 1% commission and operate crowd-funding bankroll.

Did you read his terms?

People are recommending I add new sites that have the same business model and risk profile as those that have just scammed me. They could literally be run by the same people. Unless the site gives me the ฿1 to invest this would be idiocy on my part.

I have now, but why this reminder came from you and not the OP?


Can I ask you politely, on what grounds would you consider MultiDice same business model and risk profile as icedice or the other site?

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