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Author Topic: A day in the life of a pirate.  (Read 31435 times)
Sukrim
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June 22, 2012, 08:40:02 AM
 #361

P4man your arguments are like a broken record. If I were not so lazy I would copy paste a rebuttal from one of the previous threads. The facts speak for themselves now. BTCST has been operating for almost 8 months without a hitch.

Still to my knowledge nobody has (publicly) tried to combine pirate's addresses and check out what he might actually do with that money. Does it end up at MtGox after 2-3 hops? At silkroad? Is it transferred in huge batches or only in 0.1 BTC transactions? ALL the information is already out there, in the block chain + in the clients of pirate's customers (who know which addresses are his). We even know quite on time when he pays the interest on Monday, so even without any account holder cooperating we could still get out quite a bit of information there.

Something like http://toolongdidntread.com/category/bitcoin/ developed a bit further could really come in handy...

Operating for 8 months means nothing as long as there are 7% or more per week flowing in (he gives an estimate of ~10% in total per week here in this thread). So far, with all the "pass through" operations, people seem eager so far to throw money at him, so probably he still grows exponentially.

https://www.coinlend.org <-- automated lending at various exchanges. No fees(!).
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P4man
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June 22, 2012, 08:45:43 AM
 #362

Operating for 8 months means nothing as long as there are 7% or more per week flowing in (he gives an estimate of ~10% in total per week here in this thread).

He doesnt even need such inflow rate, since most people are reinvesting their profits. If everyone does that, pirate could keep a ponzi going as long as more new funds flow in than people withdraw, and that seems a certainty at this point.

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June 22, 2012, 08:53:45 AM
 #363

The real test will still be when (if?!) he decides to lower interest and some big accounts might drop out + withdraw. This will happen this year or latest next year - after that there won't be enough BTC mined to pay for his interest and it would be obvious that he pays it from deposits. So for coin_toss: in ~2 years we'll see who was right, if there is a "bank run" after lowered interest rates.

https://www.coinlend.org <-- automated lending at various exchanges. No fees(!).
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
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June 22, 2012, 09:05:38 AM
 #364

The real test will still be when (if?!) he decides to lower interest and some big accounts might drop out + withdraw. This will happen this year or latest next year - after that there won't be enough BTC mined to pay for his interest and it would be obvious that he pays it from deposits. So for coin_toss: in ~2 years we'll see who was right, if there is a "bank run" after lowered interest rates.

Since we dont know how many btcs are deposited, theoretically a ponzi could go on even if pirate owes more btc than there are in existence.

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June 22, 2012, 09:19:22 AM
 #365

Yes, but by then it'd be obvious.

https://www.coinlend.org <-- automated lending at various exchanges. No fees(!).
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
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