Say NO to voodoo analysis!

[1echo]

all analysis in BTC is voodoo actually

[1714834785]

1714834785

[colour]

Oh look, another TA bashing thread.

If you're all going to act like closed-minded children about it I'll simply keep my TA-derived trading strategies (and profits) to myself.

Oh no, I guess I blew it. No more safe profits for us unbelievers.  

Thank you dude, each quack quacky "analysis" less makes a real difference! I was already worried this thread would be for naught.

Edit: Changed the direct ad-hominem 'cause of chessnut.

I admit that I've taken it a bit too far with that.

[chessnut]

the TA bashers all use ad hominem, lol.

[intighet]

Voodoo indicators (e.g. 3d Ronald McDonald Indicator, Random Squiggly Line Indicator, etc.) will not predict price movements!

Have you any positive evidence for your positive claims? No? Then you are no better than the so-called charlatans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_Pink_Unicorn

But you see, there is evidence against any such thing.

You, however, have still not supplied anything at all except a bald assertion that some X is Y. You haven't even properly defined any of the terms you are using. And you expect rational discourse to follow?

Try demonstrating that there are no correlations with the variable time against the price graph. Most such analyses show that markets differ greatly from random walks, and are therefore predictable at least in theory. Then, you can try to show that even though markets may not be random walks, they exhibit other properties which prevent technical analysis from ever detecting these patterns and trends.

You will be fighting a losing battle, though, I am afraid.

[bassclef]

Oh look, another TA bashing thread.

If you're all going to act like closed-minded children about it I'll simply keep my TA-derived trading strategies (and profits) to myself.

Oh no, I guess I blew it. No more safe profits for us unbelievers.  

Thank you dude, each quack quacky "analysis" less makes a real difference! I was already worried this thread would be for naught.

Edit: Changed the direct ad-hominem 'cause of chessnut.

I admit that I've taken it a bit too far with that.

Well, name calling doesn't really do it for me anyway

To get serious for a moment there are a few good TA books out there. And the tenets of DOW theory take like, what, five minutes to read? They are helpful if only to understand how the market discounts everything and how TA is used to measure the mass psychology of individual participants in market which includes fundamentals. Seems like you wouldn't be interested in that though.

[colour]

But you see, there is evidence against any such thing.

You, however, have still not supplied anything at all except a bald assertion that some X is Y. You haven't even properly defined any of the terms you are using. And you expect rational discourse to follow?

What I expect is to steer innocent newcomers to this forum away from false promises of easy, safe profits. So they won't waste their precious time and money on this TA mumbo jumbo.

Try demonstrating that there are no correlations with the variable time against the price graph. Most such analyses show that markets differ greatly from random walks, and are therefore predictable at least in theory. Then, you can try to show that even though markets may not be random walks, they exhibit other properties which prevent technical analysis from ever detecting these patterns and trends.

You will be fighting a losing battle, though, I am afraid.

Can complex, sophisticated algorithms enable safe and reliably profitable trading over reasonably long time periods? Sure, sufficient evidence for that is available. But these are in a completely different league than arbitrarily chosen lines drawn by humans with bullish/bearish glasses on or absurdly simplistic indicators that provide hardly any more information than a good look at the bare chart itself. Just like I'm not believing in oda's perpetuum mobile I'm not believing in safe and reliably profitable trading based on such lines and indicators, unless I see it for myself of course. But then again on the other hand, r/bitcoinmarkets serves as a seemingly never-ending source to supply evidence to the contrary. Probably right now their indicators are turning green again, it's obviously time to buy! Just like it was on that day before we crashed to $275. TA never fails to deliver - horrible trading decisions that is of course.

[chessnut]

Can complex, sophisticated algorithms enable safe and reliably profitable trading over reasonably long time periods? Sure, sufficient evidence for that is available. But these are in a completely different league than arbitrarily chosen lines drawn by humans with bullish/bearish glasses on or absurdly simplistic indicators that provide hardly any more information than a good look at the bare chart itself

This is not what is in dispute LOL. There is TA which can be explained in detailed in scientific terms alike to algorithms if not better.

[fonzie]

OP, you seem angry, lost much? Maybe you used the wrong TA? PM me for solid TA! Don´t believe those false TA charlatans out there!

[Febo]

Why should my analysis wouldn't be as legitimate as anybody else  

It seems legit. Bitcoin is deflationary. So deflation spiral is possible. But not of the coin itself but economies that will use Bitcoin. 

[intighet]

Can complex, sophisticated algorithms enable safe and reliably profitable trading over reasonably long time periods? Sure, sufficient evidence for that is available. But these are in a completely different league than arbitrarily chosen lines drawn by humans with bullish/bearish glasses on or absurdly simplistic indicators that provide hardly any more information than a good look at the bare chart itself.

Now you are moving goalposts. If you admit that some TA is useful then it is a fallacy to only give stock to "complex, sophisticated algorithms". Indeed, simpler algorithms tend to be more useful because they often have a better noise/signal ratio and you end up making fewer trades.

This is clearly not the message of your OP, which opens with the tone of your run-of-the-mill "TA is astrology!! and tea-leaves!! and snake-oil!!" thread. These are actually quite common on this board and you are simply adding to the noise, yourself.

While I do understand your concern for the sheep who follow the amateurs' not-so-knowing direction on forums like /r/bitcoinmarkets, we can take some consolation in that the issue is somewhat self-regulating. It is always heart-breaking to see dangerously uninformed people lose their life savings playing with bitcoin. But whether they are trading on bad advice or just trusting their funds with shady third-parties as part of a HYIP, there is literally nothing that can stop a fool and their money from parting.

tl;dr The problem is ignorance, all around, not bad science. It is the environment in which it thrives.

[oda.krell]

Can complex, sophisticated algorithms enable safe and reliably profitable trading over reasonably long time periods? Sure, sufficient evidence for that is available. But these are in a completely different league than arbitrarily chosen lines drawn by humans with bullish/bearish glasses on or absurdly simplistic indicators that provide hardly any more information than a good look at the bare chart itself.

Now you are moving goalposts. If you admit that some TA is useful then it is a fallacy to only give stock to "complex, sophisticated algorithms". Indeed, simpler algorithms tend to be more useful because they often have a better noise/signal ratio and you end up making fewer trades.

This is clearly not the message of your OP, which opens with the tone of your run-of-the-mill "TA is astrology!! and tea-leaves!! and snake-oil!!" thread. These are actually quite common on this board and you are simply adding to the noise, yourself.

While I do understand your concern for the sheep who follow the amateurs' not-so-knowing direction on forums like /r/bitcoinmarkets, we can take some consolation in that the issue is somewhat self-regulating. It is always heart-breaking to see dangerously uninformed people lose their life savings playing with bitcoin. But whether they are trading on bad advice or just trusting their funds with shady third-parties as part of a HYIP, there is literally nothing that can stop a fool and their money from parting.

tl;dr The problem is ignorance, all around, not bad science. It is the environment in which it thrives.

Spot on (and pretty concise as well).

I've tagged you as a poster with one of the highest no. of quality posts out of total no. of posts ratio, imo... not sure if that means I should ask you to post more often or not

[colour]

Now you are moving goalposts. If you admit that some TA is useful then it is a fallacy to only give stock to "complex, sophisticated algorithms". Indeed, simpler algorithms tend to be more useful because they often have a better noise/signal ratio and you end up making fewer trades.

This is clearly not the message of your OP, which opens with the tone of your run-of-the-mill "TA is astrology!! and tea-leaves!! and snake-oil!!" thread. These are actually quite common on this board and you are simply adding to the noise, yourself.

Employing hundreds of PhDs to analyse extensive databases with the help of extremely powerful high-end computers to find and exploit market inefficiencies couldn’t be further from reading the tea leaves of charts using technical analysis.¹

That's like comparing ancient alchemy to modern chemistry. Alchemy is not better because it's simpler. Hoping that fantastic lines you paint on a chart will lead you to riches is magical thinking. It'll probably lead you to bankruptcy instead, I recommend you better renounce the demon of TA now and open your heart to the spirit of reason before it's too late!

                                                                                                              

[colour]

OP, you seem angry, lost much? Maybe you used the wrong TA? PM me for solid TA! Don´t believe those false TA charlatans out there!

Awww fonzie, I love you too.  

But no, I didn't lose any money. Because I sold all my coins before the crashes after being told by a permabull that "only a fool would sell at these levels". I'll just go ahead and assume that he came to that conclusion using TA. That's what TA does to people.

About my own experiences with TA: I dabbled in forex years ago and luckily realized quickly what a bunch of hogwash that stuff is before I lost any money. Now I'm trying to help the lost souls here get to the same conclusion before they become completely corrupted. I have hope, but it looks pretty grim for now.

[orsotheysaid]

Im not sure if OP is being sarcastic or actually serious about selling 100% guaranted TA predictions for 30 dollar a month.

[brg444]

OP strangely ressemble a LambChop clone

[colour]

Another thing that really irks me about TA is that it's not just a grandiose waste of money, but also of time and energy. Let me explain what I mean:

Picture yourself on a boat on a river, during a job interview. You urgently need that job because you just threw all your money out the window, based on a hunch you got from TA. "But the 3d MACD indicated this was the direction the market would be moving!" you try to justify yourself. Now you start sweating profusely. Also, you are wearing a goofy hat and a comically oversized bow-tie. The interviewers ask if maybe you have acquired any kind of useful, special skill that you could add to their business. Your face lights up euphorically and you go: "Well, I spend a lot of time drawing lines on charts and watching indicators turn green. Do I have the job?". Yeah, that's not going to fly, sorry dude.


                                                                                                                      

[brg444]

Another thing that really irks me about TA is that it's not just a grandiose waste of money, but also of time and energy. Let me explain what I mean:

Picture yourself on a boat on a river, during a job interview. You urgently need that job because you just threw all your money out the window, based on a hunch you got from TA. "But the 3d MACD indicated this was the direction the market would be moving!" you try to justify yourself. Now you start sweating profusely. Also, you are wearing a goofy hat and a comically oversized bow-tie. The interviewers ask if maybe you have acquired any kind of useful, special skill that you could add to their business. Your face lights up euphorically and you go: "Well, I spend a lot of time drawing lines on charts and watching indicators turn green. Do I have the job?". Yeah, that's not going to fly, sorry dude.


                                                                                                                      

 

As if there's not a bunch of people on Wall Street making 6 figures salaries drawing lines and watching indicators at every banks' trading desk

This hole you are digging, it is deeper and deeper.

[Beliathon]

"Technical" analysis is so prevalent in all the bitcoin related communities that newbies may get the impression that the majority here is actually trading according to it. That is not the case!

Voodoo indicators (e.g. 3d Ronald McDonald Indicator, Random Squiggly Line Indicator, etc.) will not predict price movements! They do not guarantee successful trades! Don't fall for the deceptive words of the snake oil analysis high priests!

It's mostly just a bunch of esoteric shenanigans trying to make itself appear slightly less ridiculous by masquerading behind the term "technical". That one guy on r/bitcoinmarkets is at least honest and flat out admits that he trades according to astrological constellations. May I suggest some tea leaf reading instead? Or how about analysing the flight of the swallows? 100% trading success guaranteed, follow me on twitter and subscribe to my blog for only $29.99/month. I'll throw in a fancy feather crown for free!

You nailed it, OP.

[toknormal]

Voodoo indicators (e.g. 3d Ronald McDonald Indicator, Random Squiggly Line Indicator, etc.) will not predict price movements! They do not guarantee successful trades!

Knowing what the price did 3 days ago, 4 hours ago, 1 hour ago and 15 minutes ago is a hell of a lot more useful than just knowing what it did 2 seconds ago.

If you call that "voodoo analysis" then I think you should play the lottery instead. You may not win anything but you'll loose a lot less.

[Roy Badami]

Why should my analysis wouldn't be as legitimate as anybody else  

Love the chart!  I'm reminded of this one (which I'm sure was from a thread here ages ago - although right now google only finds me the chart and not the post here)