If you cannot calculate expected exchange rates within a discernable range, you cannot build an economy. Why do you think the BOJ intervenes in the market so often? At some point exporters run into trouble.
I know right! Silly Satoshi created a digital currency and forgot to force the entire world to adopt it immediately and completely. Relying on the market, what a noob...
It's both hilarious and sad to see how little people really understand how anything really works.
It's a cart before the horse / hen-egg issue. BTC may be a speculative item, but a ccy, it is not.
If anyone took the time to think through the trouble a merchant is facing with something like BTC..
Okay, you value your stuff in BTC, but they have to correspond to the real world(because people need a price).
So if the value of BTC asked for item x has to constantly be readjusted to correspond to the current exchange rate(normally this is not "as needed" because A REAL ECONOMY EXISTS and a country/ECB behind it and things offset mostly internally, i.e. you know that 5 EUR aren't just 2 breads, but maybe a happy meal, two socks, 3 bags of chips etc pp and you could just get those for the same 5 EUR at any point in time).
So let's take the diapers someone else just bought. From say costing 5 BTC one day for a 5$ item at 1:1, to them costing 1 BTC the next at 5:1, the guy selling them is now faced with the dilemma that he may be sitting on 10 BTC from 2 sales in one week, but now only 2 BTC from 2 sales in the next. So he now has 12 BTC for a total item value sold of 20$.
If the BTC at this point fluctuates back below 1.66, he is effectively sitting on a loss.
Widen the proportions and increase the "bad timing" factor(make him sell 10 Diapers in week 2 and you now need BTC to stay >=3$ for him to break even/profit), and the shop owner is quite literally screwed if he keeps his BTCs and then needs real money at a bad point in time. (THIS is why you need a stable exchange rate)
Now, you can obviously circumvent this by immediately cashing out every single BTC purchase into real world currency as soon as it is processed/done, so as not to expose yourself to a risk of random losses of half or more of your capital.
But here the fun begins, as we have no CB(or any banks at all) or any other real liquidity provider guaranteeing rates, making price etc, so there is near to no liquidity.
The more you would try to build an economy by increasing vendors and sales made, the less likely it is, as they exponentially would require more liquidity to constantly re-change the BTCs as a sale is made.
So you are quite literally stuck with every single sale meaning being an unwilling participant in a huge speculation gamble, and that's just not something anyone not completely retarded businesswise would expose themselves to in a large scale.
So, uhm, yes. My core problem remains with the constant babble about economy and markets when there quite literally is no such thing INTERNALLY, because there can't be the way things are.
Feel free to -as always- "disprove" this with "great" other examples, but the issues of real world economy vs make-believe I-really-just-want-it-to-be-so still persist.
You need EITHER a stable exchange rate OR a deep enough liquidity before anything can really happen "big enough"(there are obviously vendors out there taking BTC in some way and for some reason, lord knows how their books look and how they offset it), and establishing either has not been solved nor does seem likely to be easily solved with the mentalities and participants described both here and in other discussions before.
But hey, as has been said..let's see what's what in 10 years.
