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Ayers
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January 14, 2024, 08:22:32 AM
 #41

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.
The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case Wink
Inflation could do whatever, we are going to have halving and the price will go up because of it, it's that simple. Just because it may not right away, doesn't mean it's not related neither. Look at the history of bitcoin, you will see that a year after the halving it has always found a new peak, a new ATH price. I do believe that it will be same. I can guarantee you that at some point in 2025 we are going to have something over 68k for sure, it's inevitable and it will happen.

This is at least how I invest, I invest according to this, and I believe it will happen, but that's just my guess, maybe I am right, or maybe I am wrong, if I am right I will make money and if I am wrong then I am going to lose money, but I am willing to invest into this idea.

As bitcoin investors, we all expect it to happen and it will always happen but the future is something no one can predict, so when talking about the future, don't be 100% sure or confirm anything. For bitcoin to increase in price, we need many factors, not just the halving. For example, even if bitcoin is increasingly scarce but the demand for it does not increase, how can the price increase? And there are many factors from micro to macro that will impact bitcoin, so always have a plan B, don't be too subjective because the future is unpredictable. History will always repeat until there is a new history, and nothing is forever.

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January 14, 2024, 09:14:51 AM
 #42

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.
The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case Wink
Inflation could do whatever, we are going to have halving and the price will go up because of it, it's that simple. Just because it may not right away, doesn't mean it's not related neither. Look at the history of bitcoin, you will see that a year after the halving it has always found a new peak, a new ATH price. I do believe that it will be same. I can guarantee you that at some point in 2025 we are going to have something over 68k for sure, it's inevitable and it will happen.

Well no, inflation won't do "whatever". It will drop in half every 4 years as Bitcoin is programmed to do, that is very much a constant among the speculation. I don't doubt that there will be a new ATH after the halving this year, my point was that this isn't a guarantee and there are arguments that this dynamic of post-halving ATH won't last forever, whether it takes 10 or 100 years to no longer be relevant. For example, when inflation is only 0.2%, then drops to 0.1%, is that still going to be significant? To me, it seems a lot less significant than dropping from the current 1.69% to 0.84%.

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January 14, 2024, 09:23:45 AM
 #43

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.
To me, the $120k ATH target is a pretty conservative prediction for bitcoin this bull season. From events like the ETF, the world economy entering a post-crisis recovery phase, halving...all these events will create a super cycle for us and bitcoin could reach 180k-200k$ this time, IMO.
It can be said that the goal of 100k USD is a goal that we have been pursuing for many years and had high expectations during the 2021 bull season, but in the end, it did not happen. But for this bull season, $100k is a fairly modest target as bitcoin's most recent ATH was $69k.

Yeah, and there was also a pattern like 2.x-2.5x of the last all time high, so if we do the numbers, against the most recent ATH of $69k, it will be like $140k. But we will see first, I know it's kinda exciting to see this price predicting, but who knows, we could exceed that or be on a ATH of $120k. But still a very modest price for 204-2025 bull run and for sure everyone's will be happy seeing our portfolio.

The $100k prediction though last bull run was really off, but we obviously have that in mind because of this so called modelling prediction, S2F. But now no one is talking about it because it didn't work the last time. However, we should be looking like 6 digits now and it seems to be doable now.

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January 14, 2024, 09:24:39 AM
 #44

-snip-
My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.
No bro, you shouldn't trust any pattern for too long, I will only advise you to stay alert and act as the market brings it to you. Just be speculative and you will be fine. Similarly, as I advised in my last replies, it is a good thing we know what we are doing and not be a blind follower, even if it is a pattern, it can deviate, so it will be smart if we are well-guarded from the beginning so that it will not become an issue later for us. Fine, Bitcoin will rise and has had such an encouraging old pattern of outstanding rise, I will never doubt that, and this time, it might rise far higher than the current ATH, but it making an outstanding big move like the old way where multiple gains of the coin would happen might not happen again.

The buy could be sizable enough but will be practical this time as the coin is now more accountable and will behave more like a real market unlike before when it was being controlled by whales and some sectional investors anyhow. It is now being controlled more by institutions, which makes it more possible that it will not have a huge growth especially this time that the size is already heavy. So anyone thinking that it will move x10 or there about should wake up to the reality. I hope we can discuss this conservation again in the next 1 and 1/2 years.

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January 14, 2024, 01:31:34 PM
 #45

-snip-
My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.
No bro, you shouldn't trust any pattern for too long,

I would say don’t follow any pattern or luck, just play on stats. Make yourself well equipped with the Bitcoins history. We know that Bitcoins are limited in numbers, we also know that day by day the demand to acquire Bitcoins are increasing. Now if we apply simple economics, we know that whenever the commodity supply is low and demand is high, the price of the commodity goes up to fulfil the demand. Hence Bitcoins are bound to go up. So accordingly choose and invest.

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January 14, 2024, 10:16:01 PM
 #46

We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

True, it's because Bitcoin is deflationary as well that's why the drop of percentage in every 4 year cycle. And thanks to your math, and that's where the price is around as the majority is predicting $100,000 conservative estimates.

And for those who think this is bad think again, you can still make huge profits if you just go and buy during the dip and HODL for a long time. And that's why many of us here became millionaires, that kind of mindset to look long term and not just sell because we panic.

So a new all time high could start at 6 digits and then everything goes as where the price will be in 2025.

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January 14, 2024, 10:52:54 PM
 #47

the price of bitcoin will always reach the new ATH price not in the year of halving. but 1 year after halving or in 2025 the price of bitcoin will touch its latest ATH price.
if 2024 the bitcoin price movement will still be the same normal up and down. and will not reach its latest ATH price.

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January 16, 2024, 09:38:07 AM
 #48

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.
The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case Wink
Inflation could do whatever, we are going to have halving and the price will go up because of it, it's that simple. Just because it may not right away, doesn't mean it's not related neither. Look at the history of bitcoin, you will see that a year after the halving it has always found a new peak, a new ATH price. I do believe that it will be same. I can guarantee you that at some point in 2025 we are going to have something over 68k for sure, it's inevitable and it will happen.

This is at least how I invest, I invest according to this, and I believe it will happen, but that's just my guess, maybe I am right, or maybe I am wrong, if I am right I will make money and if I am wrong then I am going to lose money, but I am willing to invest into this idea.

As bitcoin investors, we all expect it to happen and it will always happen but the future is something no one can predict, so when talking about the future, don't be 100% sure or confirm anything. For bitcoin to increase in price, we need many factors, not just the halving. For example, even if bitcoin is increasingly scarce but the demand for it does not increase, how can the price increase? And there are many factors from micro to macro that will impact bitcoin, so always have a plan B, don't be too subjective because the future is unpredictable. History will always repeat until there is a new history, and nothing is forever.
I also expect the ATH to happen again as the optimism is higher and it will get to a level where FOMO will resume, and this time, it will be more than the initial that happened last year, it might see Bitcoin easily launching towards $50,000, after which it will journey higher to hit around $69,000 and more. But you should not separate halving and demand of Bitcoin, the two work hand in hand. What could have been helping Bitcoin to move higher in successive post-halving periods if not for the demands? The gist is that halving is a Bitcoin tradition that people have attributed importance to, and this importance is always causing people to believe the price of Bitcoin would rise with every halving thereby forcing the demand into the market.

This will always cause FOMO which will in turn increase the demand for Bitcoin and will result in the rapid price movement and increase in a short time possible. The two are not just separable the way you painted them, and the only issue we can have this time is when a piece of external bad news or much of it breaks out for Bitcoin. That will now be a big factor that can undermine the halving and the demand it always attracts to Bitcoin. However, you made very good cautious remarks with the concluding part, nothing is 100% predictable in the market, we should do our bit and leave the rest, but must be using the right managerial system for us to outsmart the conditions caused by the uncertainty of the market.

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January 16, 2024, 08:05:04 PM
 #49

I also expect the ATH to happen again as the optimism is higher and it will get to a level where FOMO will resume, and this time, it will be more than the initial that happened last year, it might see Bitcoin easily launching towards $50,000, after which it will journey higher to hit around $69,000 and more. But you should not separate halving and demand of Bitcoin, the two work hand in hand. What could have been helping Bitcoin to move higher in successive post-halving periods if not for the demands? The gist is that halving is a Bitcoin tradition that people have attributed importance to, and this importance is always causing people to believe the price of Bitcoin would rise with every halving thereby forcing the demand into the market.

This will always cause FOMO which will in turn increase the demand for Bitcoin and will result in the rapid price movement and increase in a short time possible. The two are not just separable the way you painted them, and the only issue we can have this time is when a piece of external bad news or much of it breaks out for Bitcoin. That will now be a big factor that can undermine the halving and the demand it always attracts to Bitcoin. However, you made very good cautious remarks with the concluding part, nothing is 100% predictable in the market, we should do our bit and leave the rest, but must be using the right managerial system for us to outsmart the conditions caused by the uncertainty of the market.
I do hope that we are going to break that ATH price and go beyond it. We are just on the verge of something and it should definitely be considered a possibility that we could see higher price.

We just need to wait for it, I believe that we still have about a year for that, we are going to see the price go up this year without a doubt but I do not think that it will go above the all time high just yet, this year it will be just higher, something that would be over fifty thousand is reasonable expectation because we already got close to it once, and I think something closer to sixty thousand will be the likely result. After that, it is anyone's guess what is going to happen, we do not really know what is going to really happen if you ask me.

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January 17, 2024, 03:40:04 PM
 #50

the price of bitcoin will always reach the new ATH price not in the year of halving. but 1 year after halving or in 2025 the price of bitcoin will touch its latest ATH price.
if 2024 the bitcoin price movement will still be the same normal up and down. and will not reach its latest ATH price.
It is possible that this will change now, because it does not rule out the possibility that ATH could occur more quickly after the halving occurs this year. I think there is nothing wrong with thinking that the ATH could happen earlier and not as usual, although many people still look at past guidelines for this. Because ATH occurs when a large increase is seen again in the market and it could also be quite possible to see it earlier before one year after the halving this year.
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January 17, 2024, 03:50:41 PM
 #51

First off this is the first ½ ing that is not a true ½ .

In the month of December 2023 we did around 3.5 coins a block fee.

so 6.25+3.5= 9.25 coins a block

after the so called ½ ing. 3.125+3.5= 6.625 coins a block


thus 6.625/9.25= over 70%

so rather than 50-52%

it has been shown the 70% is possible for a month.

we may not see a real ½ ing ever again.

better than that the 2024 will be worse.

and there is the ETF to think about.


I am thinking this is new and old charts may not fit.

Time will tell.  I see bad  under 70k or really good over 200k. by april 2025

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January 17, 2024, 04:45:45 PM
 #52

the price of bitcoin will always reach the new ATH price not in the year of halving. but 1 year after halving or in 2025 the price of bitcoin will touch its latest ATH price.
if 2024 the bitcoin price movement will still be the same normal up and down. and will not reach its latest ATH price.
Which is a good sign because that means that if that's how the pattern of bitcoin works then that means that you can always be sure that you're going to have enough time to accumulate for yourself and get yourself a nice and healthy profit when bitcoin reaches another all time high. Hopefully that's going to be the case, that the ATH would happen next year but given the volatility of bitcoin, I think that we're still going to need to be prepared for the unexpected to happen, keep a healthy stash of fiat in case you need to buy more bitcoin if the price turns for the worse.



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January 17, 2024, 07:39:05 PM
 #53

Bitcoin has so far shown close symmetry through its four year halving cycles. That may not continue forever but whilst the miners block reward is still quite significant, I think that halving it will continue to cause supply shock which will reflect in the price.



I mean for example, as we head to 2040, that type of supply halving may not cause as much of a price rise as the 2024 halving will have.

I certainly believe that for at least another three cycles we will see history repeat and significant all time highs will happen 12-18 months after the halving.

Eventually the halving will have less of an effect on the price, Bitcoin will be a more mature asset and less volatile.
Embrace the volatility whilst it is here though, it is your friend, if you know what you’re doing.

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January 17, 2024, 10:32:30 PM
 #54

I certainly believe that for at least another three cycles we will see history repeat and significant all time highs will happen 12-18 months after the halving.

I think the next halving will be the last one and will mark the end of the 4-year cycle pattern. The following ones will still have some effect, but they won't be the major catalyst for the bull runs. I expect Bitcoin to become less volatile and start acting more like traditional assets. It could deter a lot of the retail investors hoping for crazy gains in a short time, but with all the spot ETFs approved, there should be more than enough demand to compensate for it.

As much as ETFs becoming the major factor impacting the market is not necessarily a good thing, Bitcoin becoming more stable probably is. It could become more appealing to more risk-averse investors, who are looking for something closer to a reliable store of value, rather than a highly speculative and volatile instrument.

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