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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 117197 times)
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hotpassion
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July 30, 2021, 01:53:51 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (2)
 #261


Do you (or anyone else) have a link to which ever rainbow chart (or the infamous one) you are referring to, and perhaps I (and others / and the students of the class) might be able to follow along with the visuals a wee bit moar better.

You can check the status of the Rain Bow Price chart here:

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

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P_e_a_s_h_o_o_t_e_r
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December 30, 2021, 10:11:47 AM
Last edit: December 30, 2021, 11:49:38 AM by P_e_a_s_h_o_o_t_e_r
Merited by Cyrus (1)
 #262

I've made an updated version of the chart:
https://i.imgur.com/VM7eUl0.png

You can also get the price of the trendline for today here:https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E%282.5977735677++*+ln%28%28number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09%29%2Fdays%29+-17.4671700692%29
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March 11, 2022, 06:29:40 PM
 #263

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.
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March 13, 2022, 01:01:39 AM
 #264

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
placidhead
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March 13, 2022, 06:01:18 PM
 #265

Quote
If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

This only goes back to 2012 and only forwards until 2025. I feel like Trolololo's graph was more accurate since it went farther back. I'd also like to forecast what bitcoin's value (the yellow line) might be in the long term.
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May 09, 2022, 12:02:12 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2022, 06:44:21 PM by yurets_z
 #266

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

The graph is updated (current BTC price), but not the model from logarithmic regression.

Currently, it looks smth like this

https://i.ibb.co/q9MmZx3/BTC-Plan-17.png


P.S. I dunno how do you guys paste pictures here so they are displayed

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May 22, 2022, 07:07:33 PM
 #267

Bump! MoonMath.win is down. People should buy him some pizzas.
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May 24, 2022, 02:14:41 PM
 #268

Now it's OK. But maybe it's time to slightly update the model behind it.

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June 18, 2022, 09:54:50 AM
 #269

Bump again! MoonMath.win is down! All we got is this: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
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August 21, 2022, 09:24:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #270


P.S. I dunno how do you guys paste pictures here so they are displayed


I think it works if it's a jpg.



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August 21, 2022, 12:27:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #271

Bump again! MoonMath.win is down! All we got is this: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

There's actually two slightly differing models here, if not more online by now, not just the blockchain center version of the chart.

1. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
2. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.



This chart also gives a bit more room to the downside potential, with the lower band at $16.2K whereas the other is around $18K if not mistaken.

yurets_z
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August 23, 2022, 06:41:53 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2022, 06:52:13 PM by yurets_z
Merited by NotATether (2)
 #272

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.

You should always remember what is written on one of the referenced web pages: "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis."

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August 23, 2022, 07:48:54 PM
 #273

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.

You should always remember what is written on one of the referenced web pages: "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis."

Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.
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August 24, 2022, 05:35:20 AM
Last edit: August 24, 2022, 09:08:43 AM by yurets_z
Merited by vapourminer (1), dragonvslinux (1)
 #274


Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now
https://i.ibb.co/q9MmZx3/BTC-Plan-17.jpg
mmortal03
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August 24, 2022, 09:05:07 AM
 #275


Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now https://i.ibb.co/q9MmZx3/BTC-Plan-17.png

Like I said, just change the file extension to jpg (the server already has it) and put it inside the img brackets and it will show the image:
yurets_z
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August 24, 2022, 09:09:20 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #276


Like I said, just change the file extension to jpg (the server already has it) and put it inside the img brackets and it will show the image:


Probably that does not work for the Newbie users

https://i.ibb.co/q9MmZx3/BTC-Plan-17.jpg
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August 24, 2022, 09:32:06 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #277


Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now


Fair enough I hear ya. Looks like blockchaincenter have had a botched version for sometime now then, as clearly it's very different than how it should be, for whatever reason. Thanks for pointing out which one is more accurate, I'll stick to the lookintobitcoin version from now on, even if it's not clear if this is based on the original model:

Quote
The first example of a logarithmic regression curve for Bitcoin was created by Bitcoin Talk user trolololo. This is the original chart [chart below], which shows how $BTC price could potentially evolve over time using log growth regression analysis:

It seems they are almost implying this is a different version of the rainbow chart (no copyright) that's based on logarithmic values, but not necessarily the "original hard-coded version". If you look more in-depth, I think you'll find it is slightly different (look at the March 2020 lows as well as current price), because ultimately they've made a good effort to remove any confirmation that they using the original arbitrary version.

This is why I said it's not arbitrary anymore, as there are two versions (if not more), even if it should be but only when based on the original (that has no copyright).
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August 24, 2022, 09:57:40 AM
 #278

@dragonvslinux

Concerning the model, I believe the curve should be updated after adding new historical data to it. At least that is what I do to build the plot that I use for my forecasts.
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September 20, 2022, 04:52:28 PM
 #279

@dragonvslinux

(...) the curve should be updated after adding new historical data to it (...)

That is correct.
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