Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

[placidhead]

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

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[JayJuanGee]

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

[placidhead]

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

This only goes back to 2012 and only forwards until 2025. I feel like Trolololo's graph was more accurate since it went farther back. I'd also like to forecast what bitcoin's value (the yellow line) might be in the long term.

[yurets_z]

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

The graph is updated (current BTC price), but not the model from logarithmic regression.

Currently, it looks smth like this

https://i.ibb.co/wLTgwtw/BTC-Plan-29.png


P.S. I dunno how do you guys paste pictures here so they are displayed

[mmortal03]

Bump! MoonMath.win is down. People should buy him some pizzas.

[yurets_z]

Now it's OK. But maybe it's time to slightly update the model behind it.

[mmortal03]

Bump again! MoonMath.win is down! All we got is this: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

[mmortal03]

P.S. I dunno how do you guys paste pictures here so they are displayed

I think it works if it's a jpg.

[dragonvslinux]

Bump again! MoonMath.win is down! All we got is this: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

There's actually two slightly differing models here, if not more online by now, not just the blockchain center version of the chart.

1. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
2. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.



This chart also gives a bit more room to the downside potential, with the lower band at $16.2K whereas the other is around $18K if not mistaken.

[yurets_z]

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.

You should always remember what is written on one of the referenced web pages: "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis."

[dragonvslinux]

I reference this as the LookIntoBitcoin version looks more relevant, as factors in the March 2020 low more accurately, as seems to have been adjusted to include it.

You should always remember what is written on one of the referenced web pages: "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis."

Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

[yurets_z]

Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now

https://i.ibb.co/wLTgwtw/BTC-Plan-29.jpg

[mmortal03]

Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now https://i.ibb.co/q9MmZx3/BTC-Plan-17.png

Like I said, just change the file extension to jpg (the server already has it) and put it inside the img brackets and it will show the image:

[yurets_z]

Like I said, just change the file extension to jpg (the server already has it) and put it inside the img brackets and it will show the image:

Probably that does not work for the Newbie users

https://i.ibb.co/wLTgwtw/BTC-Plan-29.jpg

[dragonvslinux]

Clearly it's not arbitrary when LookIntoBitcoin have modified the logarithmic curve, and haven't referenced the fact it's arbitrary or lacks any scientific basis. Probably because it's a mathematical based curve, nothing to do with science. The irony being that a logarithmic curve in itself isn't arbitrary, it's simply how you style it (connect the dots), even if the original remains arbitrary and unchanged.

You didn't get me. The Log curve is an approximation of price history (logarithmic regression). That is the scientific part.  But the rainbow is made by duplicating that curve parallel to itself with certain intervals that are not somehow "scientifically" linked to volatility, ATHs ant Lows.

And it does not look like they have modified the curve either. Here is my view of the trend as for now

Fair enough I hear ya. Looks like blockchaincenter have had a botched version for sometime now then, as clearly it's very different than how it should be, for whatever reason. Thanks for pointing out which one is more accurate, I'll stick to the lookintobitcoin version from now on, even if it's not clear if this is based on the original model:

The first example of a logarithmic regression curve for Bitcoin was created by Bitcoin Talk user trolololo. This is the original chart [chart below], which shows how $BTC price could potentially evolve over time using log growth regression analysis:

It seems they are almost implying this is a different version of the rainbow chart (no copyright) that's based on logarithmic values, but not necessarily the "original hard-coded version". If you look more in-depth, I think you'll find it is slightly different (look at the March 2020 lows as well as current price), because ultimately they've made a good effort to remove any confirmation that they using the original arbitrary version.

This is why I said it's not arbitrary anymore, as there are two versions (if not more), even if it should be but only when based on the original (that has no copyright).

[yurets_z]

@dragonvslinux

Concerning the model, I believe the curve should be updated after adding new historical data to it. At least that is what I do to build the plot that I use for my forecasts.

[Trolololo]

@dragonvslinux

(...) the curve should be updated after adding new historical data to it (...)

That is correct.

[mmortal03]

Bump again! MoonMath.win is down! All we got is this: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

There's actually two slightly differing models here, if not more online by now, not just the blockchain center version of the chart.

1. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
2. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

I prefer the lookintobitcoin one, but, unfortunately, it only updates at a resolution of one day, so it isn't necessarily showing the lowest price points (or, if it does, it doesn't show them in the middle of the day while it's happening).

[yurets_z]

It seems like nowadays everyone should have their rainbow chart for BTC price ))

https://www.cryptocompare.com/profile/yurets.zh/#/activity

[of00160]

@dragonvslinux

(...) the curve should be updated after adding new historical data to it (...)

That is correct.

Great to have you back Trolololo