[FREQUENTLY UPDATED] Ichimoku Cloud Analysis of Bitcoin

[BTC.sx]

One big candle on high volume pierced through the entire cloud and into bullish territory. As a rule, a piercing of the cloud is followed by some muddling around in the cloud testing support and resistance.

The conviction with which this one candle burst through the Ichimoku cloud changed the trend in one trading session. See chart below:



Other confirmations of the new trend have also occurred. Cloud Span A has crossed over Cloud Span B. This means the new cloud forming is bullish and should provide support as price moves higher.

As the old saying goes, old resistance now becomes support. Another buy signal was triggered when the Standard Line crossed over the Turning Line. When this happened, the Standard Line actually pierced into the cloud because of how powerful the move was. This is another bullish sign.

The final sign is volume. Volume has picked up significantly on an up day, which has not been seen this high in quite some. Volume generally precedes price. So a pick up in upside volume should be seen as bullish as well.



Conclusion

While a pullback is possible, the trend is now bullish.

The cloud should provide support and buying on pullbacks is probably what one should be doing. If price were to pierce back into the cloud, it would remain bullish, as the direction from which the price goes into the cloud should be used as your benchmark.

However, going into a cloud is always a warning signal of a trend change and at that point caution should be used until the direction is resolved.

Written by George Samman, former Wall Street Portfolio Manager and Co-Founder and COO of BTC.sx

[1714063631]

1714063631

[600watt]

thx & welcome

 

[K128kevin2]

What is being used to determine where that "cloud" is?

[Newbie1022]

Former Wall Street Portfolio Manager

Yea, no... looks like a down market that is too dangerous to short well because of the order book asymmetry.

We had a big pump because of semi-bogus news about a hedge fund on the OKCoin platform (technically true, but misleading), then a huge pull back, then a bounce back to the low-400s where the price belonged... and now the start of a stair pattern in the short-resolution charts.

I call bulls---. Might go up, but you don't know.

[BTC.sx]

What is being used to determine where that "cloud" is?

Good question.  It is a little complicated.

There are 5 components to the cloud.  The first one is Tenkan-Sen (i.e. Conversion Line). This line is constructed like a moving average.  It looks back 9 days, but unlike a moving average you don’t average each day in the period.

You calculate the overall midpoint between the highest daily high and the lowest daily low in the period.  This gives you the midpoint of the trading range across the last 9 days. Formula: (9 day high + 9 day low/2)).

The second line is Kijun-Sen (aka Base Line).  This is calculated in the same way as the Conversion Line but has a look back period of 26 days.  This was the original amount of Japanese trading days in 1 month.  Formula: (26 day high +26 day low/2)). The Conversion Line is shorter than the Base Line so it turns more times than the Standard Line - these crossovers can be used much in the same as MA crossovers.

Senkou Span A (aka Leading Span A) is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. This forms one of the cloud boundaries. It is referred to as Leading because it’s plotted 26 days into the future and forms the “faster” cloud boundary.  (Conversion Line + Base Line/2)).

Senkou Span B (aka Leading Span B) is the midpoint between the 52 day high and the 52 day low in price. Formula: (52 day high + 52 day low/2)). This is the equivalent of 2 trading months. This is also plotted 26 days into the future and forms the “slower” cloud boundary.  

Please note that the spans are similar to 17 day (the midpoint of 9 and 26) and 52 day averages shifted forward.  The Cloud is formed from a shorter term and a longer term average snaking around each other shifted ahead of price.

The final component is the Chikou Span (aka Lagging Span). This is simply the price close plotted 26 days in the past. Below is an example of how this looks:

[BTC.sx]

Former Wall Street Portfolio Manager

Yea, no... looks like a down market that is too dangerous to short well because of the order book asymmetry.

We had a big pump because of semi-bogus news about a hedge fund on the OKCoin platform (technically true, but misleading), then a huge pull back, then a bounce back to the low-400s where the price belonged... and now the start of a stair pattern in the short-resolution charts.

I call bulls---. Might go up, but you don't know.

Yes former. Unfortunately there are not enough hours in a day for someone to both work on Wall Street and be a COO of a startup

[Hodl Life]

https://i.imgur.com/gqv2L0e.jpg

[var53]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

[BTC.sx]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

[Hodl Life]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

[BTC.sx]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

Of course!

[Hodl Life]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

Of course!

On a serious note, do you think it'll pass $420 anytime soon? Bought a little too high like a nub

[coinableS]

On a serious note, do you think it'll pass $420 anytime soon? Bought a little too high like a nub

   Try buying in at over $800 and not selling the whole way down. That's how we pros hodl.

[BTC.sx]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

Of course!

On a serious note, do you think it'll pass $420 anytime soon? Bought a little too high like a nub

We do not like to give out investment advice and encourage our traders to think for themselves. However, if this bull trend sticks, $420 should be reached soon.

[Hodl Life]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

Of course!

On a serious note, do you think it'll pass $420 anytime soon? Bought a little too high like a nub

We do not like to give out investment advice and encourage our traders to think for themselves. However, if this bull trend sticks, $420 should be reached soon.

Painstakingly professional. I like it.

Will check you guys out soon. Take care and good luck with your business.

[mymenace]

another good sign is the weekly macd

[var53]

another good sign is the weekly macd

Is that bullish right now?

[RyNinDaCleM]

another good sign is the weekly macd

Is that bullish right now?

Nope! It's hooking up, sure, but until it crosses, it's not exactly Bullish. Perhaps more neutral than anything.

[mymenace]

another good sign is the weekly macd

Is that bullish right now?

Nope! It's hooking up, sure, but until it crosses, it's not exactly Bullish. Perhaps more neutral than anything.

thats right,  looks like it is about to crossover in the coming weeks giving a confirmation to a bull run

remember just because it becomes bullish does not mean high volume or large price increases, just little chance of going down

[TinaK]

when the spacecraft crashed, it's very painful