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Author Topic: Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%)  (Read 6454 times)
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philipma1957
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November 18, 2014, 11:31:37 PM
 #1

 I will get this going in a bit.

I self mod it do to seriouscoin   and basically I tolerant anythings except insults so everyone feel free to comment

this was Nov 4 to Nov 18 below

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846810.0


Okay  last diff was 1.76 %

This one starts out very low :

 bitcoincharts =  (-0.35%)
 bitcoinwisdom= (+1.1%)

my guess is both estimates are low and the coupon dump from bitmaintech will cause a bigger jump maybe as much as 4-6%

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philipma1957
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November 18, 2014, 11:40:23 PM
 #2

my gut tells me both are too low .  that bitmaintech's coupon give away will make numbers go over 4% 


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>> (1.14%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,757,947,822 (+1.14%)
Adjust time:   After 1992 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   295,589,357 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   19:55 (1.5 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com  >>>>>>>>> ( - .35%)


Blocks   330648
Total BTC   13.516M
 
Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40157430437 in 1992 blks
 
Network total   306385.988 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.46 / 558 s

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mavericklm
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November 19, 2014, 01:40:06 PM
 #3

it looks like going negative, at least for the moment!  Grin
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,387,207,439 (+0.22%)
philipma1957
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November 19, 2014, 02:31:55 PM
 #4

it looks like going negative, at least for the moment!  Grin
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,387,207,439 (+0.22%)

yeah but with bitmaintech issuing sooo many coupons  for s-3+ c-1 and s-4's I have to figure  they will sell a lot of them.

I ordered 2 s-3's  I sold 4 s-3 coupons and they ordered 4 s-3's I told another guy he got 8 coupons and he ordered 4 s-3's.  2  others  I know ordered some s-4's

So we are looking a jump in about 6 days to 8 days.

 Now if you think that bitmaintech is pulling all those orders from a mine  we will dip negative and slowly crawl back up to a low positive.

Also a big coin sale is going to happen from the feds on dec 4-6  50,000 coins  this may affect the price of coins which in turn affects growth.

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November 20, 2014, 09:02:30 AM
 #5

Guys +/-2% in difficulty change can be caused just by variance (probability of finding blocks). So even if real hashrate didn't change at all, resulting difficulty will ALWAYS be different from previous one.

But I agree there is suspicious calm on hashrate charts Smiley

mavericklm
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November 20, 2014, 12:18:51 PM
 #6

the calm before the storm Huh
lowbander80
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November 20, 2014, 12:25:50 PM
 #7

Maybe and I say Maybe
its a lesson learned and that mining is not always profitable
actually its not bitcoin itself but the speculation on bitcoin price...

The ones that got borred waiting or realised that price many not go up again
are out of the game and you can see this from sellers like the one selling on the
market place section currently 100pcs       SP-30 or companies like bitmain and spondoolies
making discounts


mavericklm
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November 20, 2014, 12:35:49 PM
 #8

actually its not bitcoin itself but the speculation on bitcoin price...

this + the btc acceptance!
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November 20, 2014, 12:50:17 PM
 #9

Maybe and I say Maybe
its a lesson learned and that mining is not always profitable
actually its not bitcoin itself but the speculation on bitcoin price...

The ones that got borred waiting or realised that price many not go up again
are out of the game and you can see this from sellers like the one selling on the
market place section currently 100pcs       SP-30 or companies like bitmain and spondoolies
making discounts





yeah, its the end of the road for mining btc, price still dropping more will likely to quit and sell their miners.
lowbander80
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November 20, 2014, 01:03:47 PM
 #10

It will be long time that we are going to discuss about this matter
difficulty seems to slow donw.
Guy from SP-tech has predicted this now its true
mavericklm
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November 20, 2014, 04:04:37 PM
 #11

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,221,353,952 (-0.20%)

PARTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! Grin
philipma1957
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November 20, 2014, 10:04:15 PM
 #12

It will be long time that we are going to discuss about this matter
difficulty seems to slow donw.
Guy from SP-tech has predicted this now its true

He is not the only one pushing slow growth. But time will tell.

My guess is bitmaintech  is selling off a lot of farm gear at a bargain price.  They hope to put in some new s-5.  So after mining with s-3's and s-4's that are now on sale.  the upgrade to s-5's in their farm will start soon.

  This is good in a way   lets say they have 10ph  in s-3's and s-4's farming .  As they pull it off the market hash rate drops a bit.

  As we receive  the gear the  hashrate jumps back a bit. So we may have another good < 3-4% jump.

In the meantime my two s-3's shipped today so that is good.


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November 21, 2014, 12:39:38 AM
 #13

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.
philipma1957
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November 21, 2014, 01:00:43 AM
 #14

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I grew and expanded last winter  shrank  this summer and grew back this fall-winter.

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November 21, 2014, 03:45:29 AM
 #15

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I think about them in terms of "cheaper heating" for the house rather that cheaper cooling.
By my calculations, I would be saving ~30% of my heating bill over the winter. Already, I had the same level of gas usage during October as per summer months (no seasonal increase) because I did not have to switch heating ON even with ~50-55F outside (it stayed at ~74F in the house thanks to just six S3).
philipma1957
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November 21, 2014, 04:36:55 AM
 #16

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I think about them in terms of "cheaper heating" for the house rather that cheaper cooling.
By my calculations, I would be saving ~30% of my heating bill over the winter. Already, I had the same level of gas usage during October as per summer months (no seasonal increase) because I did not have to switch heating ON even with ~50-55F outside (it stayed at ~74F in the house thanks to just six S3).

here in NJ power costs drops from 16 to 13 cents for winter prices.  then with savings on heat  it comes to about 9.7 cents from Oct 1 to May 31.  So I boost my mining every fall and drop it every June 1

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November 21, 2014, 06:58:08 AM
 #17

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I grew and expanded last winter  shrank  this summer and grew back this fall-winter.

Except last winter btc price was double of todays price.... and i bet your mining hashrate does not scale up to the network difficulty either.

See the trend now?
philipma1957
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November 21, 2014, 02:01:42 PM
 #18

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I grew and expanded last winter  shrank  this summer and grew back this fall-winter.

Except last winter btc price was double of todays price.... and i bet your mining hashrate does not scale up to the network difficulty either.

See the trend now?


and while you and I differ on a lot. we both agree that home miners will no longer ever be able to have a large part of the network in house.

my 16gb gpu farm in 2012 earned 2.2 coins a day. and burned 6k watts.

my 6.7th s-3 setup  earns 2.5 coins a month  and burns 5k watts.  my max power for winter is 7k  so I could go to 9th. 

that is 3.36 coins a month  at todays prices say 1200 usd before power.  as shitty as that is compared to  3 and 4 thousand a month before power last winter I can still pull a small profit.  and I now actively buy coins. much more then I ever did.

and right now as I type.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>    (-1.45%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-1.68%)


 

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November 21, 2014, 06:06:02 PM
 #19

If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   
philipma1957
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November 21, 2014, 06:58:24 PM
 #20

If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   

yeah s-2's and dragons at 1 watt or more will be tough for business purpose's we may be seeing a lot of 1-1.2 watt gear being shut down.

a 1.1 watt 1th  machine right now with 10 cents a kwatt earns a big fat 50 bucks a month. with power costs .

I am using free setup free internet and free machine

So basically a lot of 1- 1.5 watt gear is going off line.

My s-3's do  .77 and they can be lowered to .67 per gh so they can hang in until diff of 80  or so.

If you don't have .8 or better at 10 cents or better things are bleak.

I would like to see 2 or 3   minus 1% adjustments in a row.  only time will tell.

The key is does a company or 2 build a .3 or .4 watt machine and keep it to their company for mining only

Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to : 1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr
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