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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice polluting Bitcoin?  (Read 15148 times)
tvbcof
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August 24, 2012, 03:23:27 PM
 #121

...
So banks become super-computers that can handle the block chain?  my mobile will only need the last few hours of it?

I get the sense that the sooner it is untenable for a mere pleb to be a peer in the p2p network, the better from the standpoint of the network operators.  Plebs exist to be milked (bank account fees, transaction fees, etc) you know?  So, Satoshi-dice is a Godsend and there will be more where that came from.

From my standpoint, Bitcoin is drifting from something which I thought could be a real game-changing system for the benefit of the less powerful to something I simply hope to capitalize on for personal gain.  Doing so mean stepping off the train at an opportune time if such a time exists between the two potential events of mass appeal and realization of the nature of the solution.


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herzmeister
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August 24, 2012, 03:25:56 PM
 #122

I'd like to make a corollary to Moore's Law:  The Blockchain will never exceed $100-worth of hard drive space (adjusting for inflation).

You mean Bitcoin will never be adopted widely enough to outgrow $100-worth of hard drive space at a given time?  Angry

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wachtwoord
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August 24, 2012, 04:07:15 PM
 #123

I'd like to make a corollary to Moore's Law:  The Blockchain will never exceed $100-worth of hard drive space (adjusting for inflation).

You mean Bitcoin will never be adopted widely enough to outgrow $100-worth of hard drive space at a given time?  Angry

No, try again  Wink

DeathAndTaxes
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August 24, 2012, 04:29:26 PM
 #124

You mean Bitcoin will never be adopted widely enough to outgrow $100-worth of hard drive space at a given time?  Angry

The reverse.  
40 years ago $100 bought you a couple MB of space.
20 years ago $100 bought you a couple GB.  
Today $100 will buy you a couple TB.  
In another 20 years it will buy you a couple EB PB.

http://ns1758.ca/winch/winchest.html

The cost per unit of storage for SSD is falling at a faster rater than magnetic disks did over the last 60.
So in 2032 even if the blockchain is 890 TB it will still cost less than $100 in storage.
dree12
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August 24, 2012, 04:36:56 PM
 #125

You mean Bitcoin will never be adopted widely enough to outgrow $100-worth of hard drive space at a given time?  Angry

The reverse.  
40 years ago $100 bought you a couple MB of space.
20 years ago $100 bought you a couple GB.  
Today $100 will buy you a couple TB.  
In another 20 years it will buy you a couple PB.

http://ns1758.ca/winch/winchest.html

The cost per unit of storage for SSD is falling at a faster rater than magnetic disks.
So in 2032 even if the blockchain is 890 TB it will still cost less than $100 in storage.
Just fixing your extrapolation.

Note that every 20 years or so, the value of $100 halves. So, the cost of keeping a full blockchain decreases over time.
SysRun
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August 24, 2012, 04:48:46 PM
 #126

Think stress test, not pollution.

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giszmo
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August 24, 2012, 06:17:54 PM
 #127

Ok so we will have blcockchain pruning some day. Pruning essentially means that empty addresses don't fill up disk space.
With every transaction the bitcoin client(s) try to pick the least possible inputs to normally produce 2 outputs.
With many addresses in the wallet, it will on average take 2 inputs for 2 outputs. The count of addresses should converge to some number per wallet.
The wast majority of users will have only one wallet if at all. Actually for global adoption I would be surprised to see more than 500 million wallets as most people would use hosted wallets that each in itself would converge to the same number of addresses.
With pruning the block chain would essentially be [size of an address balance] * [magic number of addresses per wallet] * [500 million] which should be less than 1kB * 100 * 500E6=500E11B=50TB
This I would consider the end game. Miners could even prioritize merging transactions that lower that burden, so people would use clients that rather take many inputs than few, so the block chain could shrink.

Once we give up the illusion things could be anonymous, the block chain could shrink to 1kB * 1 * 100 assuming we all use one of 100 hosted wallets Wink

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