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Author Topic: SafeDICE.com ★ Bitcoin Dice ★ Monero ★ 0.5% Edge ★ Fast Cashout ★ Since 2014  (Read 275494 times)
wormat22
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April 18, 2016, 12:16:59 PM
 #2121

It's the variable house edge. Currently SD allows gamblers to go past the 1X kelly by adjusting the house edge.
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Sora Aoi
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April 18, 2016, 05:42:36 PM
 #2122

It's the variable house edge. Currently SD allows gamblers to go past the 1X kelly by adjusting the house edge.

Sure, it allows gamblers to go up to 10x kelly by paying more juice. As an investor, you can simply investment 1/10th of your total investment and it would be very similar though.
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April 18, 2016, 08:00:40 PM
 #2123

Wooot  Huh player did not receive 100 btc and we're watching this like it's nothing.
If I would be in his place i would go mad  Undecided
wormat22
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April 18, 2016, 08:07:46 PM
 #2124

Quote
I'm not an expert, but wouldn't capping the max profit (at 20%, 30% or even 50% of current bankroll) solve the issue?

What is the issue exactly?

Player being able to win almost entire bankroll in a single bet.

The investor can't have both increased expected value and profits AND remain risk adverse.

With SafeDice's setup (up to 10x kelly), you need to realize that it's favouring investors who prefer the former rather than the latter and really there's no problem with that.

You can't expect to have fast and steady profits without taking a risk of ruin.  It's not designed this way.  IMO, these investment options are quite attractive and should provide a good return, however people shouldn't be regarding these investments as can't lose investments expecting them to never break.

Investors shouldn't be putting more than what they can afford to lose in this (or any) bankroll and instead should be adjusting according to their preferred balance of tolerance of risk and profit sought.

It's not the kelly system. SD disregards the kelly system at higher bets and adjusts the house edge to compensate. That's the issue here.
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April 19, 2016, 06:35:09 PM
 #2125


1) I already reached out to Anton, gave him my reasoning , what happened from my point of view, and another theory of this chaos

So what's the most likely scenario of what happened from your perspective? Is he simply lying, or was it a case of compromised account (and email?).

4) I'll change the way the kelly system works to avoid similar things happened in the future

I'm not an expert, but wouldn't capping the max profit (at 20%, 30% or even 50% of current bankroll) solve the issue?

1) I will not accuse anyone without a solid proof as an operator. But whatever the scenario is, we've done throughout the procedure. Hugger's account has never been compromised, despite setting  2 factor auth few days ( not immediately ) after his huge winning

4) Thank you for your idea, but it is not that simple, investors may abuse it by always setting to 10x kelly, they will get a greater share while risking less. I think the only fair solution is to minimize maximum kelly to 2x - 5x. I was not very comfortable doing this before for a simple reason : some people will realize that his kelly was changed without the consent and thought that his account was compromised or I'm trying to keep them away from profiting

Quote
I'm not an expert, but wouldn't capping the max profit (at 20%, 30% or even 50% of current bankroll) solve the issue?

What is the issue exactly?

Player being able to win almost entire bankroll in a single bet.

The investor can't have both increased expected value and profits AND remain risk adverse.

With SafeDice's setup (up to 10x kelly), you need to realize that it's favouring investors who prefer the former rather than the latter and really there's no problem with that.

You can't expect to have fast and steady profits without taking a risk of ruin.  It's not designed this way.  IMO, these investment options are quite attractive and should provide a good return, however people shouldn't be regarding these investments as can't lose investments expecting them to never break.

Investors shouldn't be putting more than what they can afford to lose in this (or any) bankroll and instead should be adjusting according to their preferred balance of tolerance of risk and profit sought.

It's not the kelly system. SD disregards the kelly system at higher bets and adjusts the house edge to compensate. That's the issue here.

I believe it's a mixture of both.  It used to be that the rate of the floating house edge variable would mean that you could only win that much % of the bankroll.  When the Kelly was increased, it meant that investors were risking this to multiples depending on their settings (with most people opting for 10x).  

The issue here is really simple : I was not aware that people are challenged to get more and more percentage of bankroll and most of them use 10x kelly. So instead of a house vs. player site , the site slowly became a player vs. player site. This makes the site too unstable and prone to variance



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wormat22
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April 19, 2016, 06:49:15 PM
 #2126

Quote
The issue here is really simple : I was not aware that people are challenged to get more and more percentage of bankroll and most of them use 10x kelly. So instead of a house vs. player site , the site slowly became a player vs. player site. This makes the site too unstable and prone to variance

I think that's an excellent summary of the problem.
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April 20, 2016, 03:40:24 AM
 #2127

I would say set max HE on 2% and kelly on max 5x. This way, max 10% of BR will be risked at a max bet on 2% HE. Still not really safe but if people actually add some funds to their investment after some losses (like they are "supposed to" when using kelly), it's okay.

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April 20, 2016, 04:33:55 PM
 #2128

I would say set max HE on 2% and kelly on max 5x. This way, max 10% of BR will be risked at a max bet on 2% HE. Still not really safe but if people actually add some funds to their investment after some losses (like they are "supposed to" when using kelly), it's okay.

I agree. This sounds like a good solution
Sora Aoi
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April 25, 2016, 10:28:49 AM
 #2129

Is there an update on if the "max win" per bet was changed recently? It is no longer displayed at the top right of the interface.

While total wagered and bets is useful information, I think both players and investors would rather know the current max win per bet instead.

Apologies if it's somewhere obvious on the site that I cannot find.

P.S. I noticed the option to invest at 5x kelly has been removed recently. Interesting, care to explain why? Thanks.
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April 25, 2016, 05:17:51 PM
 #2130

Site is down again. Any update.


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rindo
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April 25, 2016, 05:57:15 PM
 #2131

Site is down again. Any update.


yeah same with me im cannot acces SafeDice


SafeDice
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April 25, 2016, 07:35:08 PM
 #2132

Is there an update on if the "max win" per bet was changed recently? It is no longer displayed at the top right of the interface.

While total wagered and bets is useful information, I think both players and investors would rather know the current max win per bet instead.

Apologies if it's somewhere obvious on the site that I cannot find.

P.S. I noticed the option to invest at 5x kelly has been removed recently. Interesting, care to explain why? Thanks.

Yes Sora, we are testing with 2x max kelly and 2% max win, we do this to reduce the effect of variance to the bankroll. We prefer our investment to go slowly but surely

Max win is still displayed in the betting box next to the profit on win


Site is down again. Any update.


yeah same with me im cannot acces SafeDice




My apologies for the inconvenience caused, I'm working through this. This is an old trouble, nothing serious but it will take some time to fix. I'm currently trying to fix this for good, but it will take a few hours, really sorry

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AcoinL.L.C
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April 25, 2016, 07:35:29 PM
 #2133

I would still like to know what happened to the 100 BTC withdrawal. Were the issues resolved surrounding that?
SafeDice
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April 25, 2016, 08:17:30 PM
 #2134

I would still like to know what happened to the 100 BTC withdrawal. Were the issues resolved surrounding that?

From our perspective, we processed everything according to standard withdrawal procedure. My last update was in response to pawel's question https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=868275.msg14597167#msg14597167 , no updates since then, except for changes in the kelly and maximum win calculation

Site is down again. Any update.

Site's up! Happy rolling!

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searle421
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April 28, 2016, 12:01:20 AM
 #2135

Refill the goddamn hot-wallet please.
SafeDice
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April 28, 2016, 02:24:26 AM
 #2136

Refill the goddamn hot-wallet please.
The goddamn hot wallet has been refilled, please try again Smiley

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April 28, 2016, 12:07:22 PM
 #2137

• Your deposit will show up in the balance section after 1 confirmation.

THIS IS LIE my fist confirmation was 45 min. ago and still my balance show ZERO 0.000000 so  don`t lie pls or fix your system
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April 28, 2016, 12:28:48 PM
 #2138

• Your deposit will show up in the balance section after 1 confirmation.

THIS IS LIE my fist confirmation was 45 min. ago and still my balance show ZERO 0.000000 so  don`t lie pls or fix your system

I'm sure you're going to think this is a stupid question, but did you refresh your page after the confirmation? Sometimes the page gets disconnected from the server and doesn't see these kind of updates.

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April 28, 2016, 12:32:12 PM
 #2139

• Your deposit will show up in the balance section after 1 confirmation.

THIS IS LIE my fist confirmation was 45 min. ago and still my balance show ZERO 0.000000 so  don`t lie pls or fix your system

I'm sure you're going to think this is a stupid question, but did you refresh your page after the confirmation? Sometimes the page gets disconnected from the server and doesn't see these kind of updates.

YEs I did it several times even logout and login again and I didn`t find any contact information as e-mail or etc on the web site
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April 28, 2016, 01:29:16 PM
 #2140

5  hours later
no deposit
no reply no info no nothing
so
support below zero
pay HOW TO KNOW .... WHEN YOU STEAL MY DEPOSIT
 IMPORTANT
there is only one player that bet someone
"slyyy"  so be aware for this site  !!!
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