Bitcoin Technical Analysis

[sonofacoin]

Thx for the effort for forum with all the pictures.

But I do not think this analysis will overweight fundamentals like flooding of market with seized of BTC's or Paypal going for BTC etc... One of those events can be a trigger for something crazy in both ways. Just my 2 cents.

if technical analysis could tell us the future then everyone with a half brain would be rich.

In Bitcoin as in with Stocks and Market, TA helps us understand the trends based on actual historical data. Believe me, I make money on the stock market this way and so does a lot of people. So please don't discredit the work.

But you are absolutely right. Although what you call for are events that have nothing to do with the organic growth of Bitcoin.

Stocks have those too. Look at Sand Disk stock after Earning Report in July, Kors in July too... The stocks dropped like shit after earnings releases. Those are events that cannot be predicted (unless you are an insider or have gain to insider data.)

But every time TA tells you when to go in, and when o sell. Why? Because everyone uses about the same tools. So a lie multiplied by millions becomes the truth.

Thanks for the comments as it helps the discussion. I will be updating.

[Atdhe]

Well, I do not buy that. Millions of people use the same tools, but other millions of people bet against. So yes, I am very sceptical here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem

And even if was true what you said about TA, which I doubt, it does not happen on nonliquid market like BTC, where just few bitcoins traded move the line significantly and TA gurus did not reach it (yet).

[sonofacoin]

Wow you are really clueless...

But glad you are skeptical. We all need to be.

Good thing that I am trying to prove a point with actual data and charts... not just whatever comes out of my ass based on mood of the day like many other here.

[sonofacoin]

Watching a pretty cool battle fought right now to conquer a position above the 100 moving day average!

This is No Man's Land right now

Go Bitcoin!

[DieJohnny]

Watching a pretty cool battle fought right now to conquer a position above the 100 moving day average!

This is No Man's Land right now

Go Bitcoin!

i say down

[sonofacoin]

Looking really good here at $380...Half a day to go

[sonofacoin]

Confirmation today on MACD, Stochiastics about to cross over, and RSI is about the right place for a good rally. Bitcoin has conquered the 50 moving average! But this is only one day battle.

My only concern is that people may start to take profits here. Since I started the post at $358, one could have gain anywhere from 6% to 8%.

But Bitcoin is due for a rally. Specially with all the global uncertainty.

[Bagatell]

Confirmation today on MACD, Stochiastics about to cross over, and RSI is about the right place for a good rally. Bitcoin has conquered the 50 moving average! But this is only one day battle.

and +DMI is dominant.

[Atdhe]

Wow you are really clueless...

But glad you are skeptical. We all need to be.

Good thing that I am trying to prove a point with actual data and charts... not just whatever comes out of my ass based on mood of the day like many other here.

The graphs are as good as anything else that comes from ass. Tables or graphs are nothing just a gunsmoke in 99.999..% of cases in this world. Every shithead broker will show me 1000 pictures only because he wants my money and because he has nothing else to offer.

What only counts is money. Money bet on the trust and won more times than lost. Just put your bets here, make some ROI from few thousands bets to avoid lucky strikes, then I will bother to comprehend and apologise. Until then it is really just another ass-talk.

[sonofacoin]

And my concern yesterday was confirmed... People took profits here pushing Bitcoin's price down.

My Pink Line, the first support is still intact. so that's a positive. Also, the Red line trend is still intact but may break tomorrow.

Thanks Bagatell, DMI is positive but trending down which mas cause some down pressure

We need to close above the 50 day moving average. I guess will find out soon.

[sonofacoin]

Wow you are really clueless...

But glad you are skeptical. We all need to be.

Good thing that I am trying to prove a point with actual data and charts... not just whatever comes out of my ass based on mood of the day like many other here.

The graphs are as good as anything else that comes from ass. Tables or graphs are nothing just a gunsmoke in 99.999..% of cases in this world. Every shithead broker will show me 1000 pictures only because he wants my money and because he has nothing else to offer.

What only counts is money. Money bet on the trust and won more times than lost. Just put your bets here, make some ROI from few thousands bets to avoid lucky strikes, then I will bother to comprehend and apologise. Until then it is really just another ass-talk.

... Everyone thinks they deserve an apology for something.. man relax, you don't have to post or follow this thread.

[sonofacoin]

As I said on December 3rd, people took profits driving the price of Bitcoin lower.

The sell off has been short lived but was strong enough to put a down pressure on the coin that now should trail a little lower.

But the great thing is that the support line I drew on Dec 1st is still holding and it seems to be very strong. If this line does not break we should be in great shape for now. (Pink dotted line to $369)

So no time to panic for the trader, and nothing to worry for the investor...

[calchuchesta]

How can you apply classic TA to Bitcoin? the price is too volatile. How does this work? I want to be able to learn to predict the price, but the price always does something strange.

[sonofacoin]

How can you apply classic TA to Bitcoin? the price is too volatile. How does this work? I want to be able to learn to predict the price, but the price always does something strange.

Hi Calchuchesta, Yes, indeed the price is to volatile. And makes it hard to apply TA to make any type of predictions. But anything that is traded using computers is bound to follow some type of algorithm and the rules of any market.

So how can one apply TA to Bitcoin?  Well, the same could be said about half the stocks traded in the market and most of the OTC stocks. It is all about having a long term view, knowledge about current state of the market, and then applying TA to find trends. Believe me, they all have them and they all follow them.

Ultimately, trading in the market or crypto is a bet. If one had to participate, at least one must make an intelligent one.

Since I started the trend I predicted the bounce to $400s, which was shy of it at around $380. I also mentioned that the coin was going to experience a sell off, which it did. All based on MACD and Stochastic.

As I said before, news triumph over any TA. And manipulation exists on any market including bitcoin (just look at what the alter coins where doing from December 2013 to March 2014.) Pump and dumps were rampant.  so one has to be very careful.

[sonofacoin]

Since the start of this thread I had Dec 18th as a day to confirm action. (Pink vertical line)

Well, that day is today and it's turning to be a sell off day. With Bitcoin prices plunging to prices below the support at $369.

If the day closes in prices below that level, the mid term trending line (red line) will be broken and we can consider buying when bitcoin goes to lower prices in the next day or so.

The next support (strong support) is the fib line at 0.764 ($340). I would watch this closely and consider buying at this level is there is any confirmation of a bounce.

The final support/trend line is the blue line also in the original post, which bring Bitcoin prices to around the $320s. Which is where I would definitely place a buy order.

Lastly, the day chart shows a down trend but the weekly chart is still signaling an uptrend. This may be a small storm to man through.

[sonofacoin]

There is a small resistance at $350, but it probably won't hold.

BTC is heading to $340

[sonofacoin]

BTC bounced at around $343 but the red support trend line was broken badly.

Soft support at $350... but it may not hold.

The coin now looks like is heading down. I believe it will play around $340 before deciding on the next move.

[gablay12]

The price is trying.If BTC can make a double bottom the prices can increase.

[BootstrapCoinDev]

Watching a pretty cool battle fought right now to conquer a position above the 100 moving day average!

This is No Man's Land right now

Go Bitcoin!

To be fair it could have gone either way. Granted it was perhaps a little early for the next 7 monthly surge, assuming they're still happening. But judging by the shape emerging its now looking increasingly like another blip as in Oct. But guess it could still surprise us more ...

[sonofacoin]

BootstrapCoinDev,

Agreed, it could have gone either way... Closing above 100 MA for any stock and bitcoin is such an accomplishment. But Like I said before, it also calls for people to cash profits.

Bitcoin Update

Ok, I think I will pad myself on the back. The lines I have created since the start of the post have remained and have predicted the price of Bitcoin very closely. (The lines have not changed since the beginning of the post.)

Pink Vertical Line on December 8th. I traced this day while back based on previous support lines and a trend line (red). Bitcoin was supposed to keep the line intact but it broke down exactly on December 8th.

Trace line at 0.764 ($340.77). Bitcoin broke the up trend but bounced hard off this line maintaining the support line. Which now has become a very strong line at $340.

Now, some follow up predictions: If Bitcoin brakes down through $340, we will see a test of the low $300s and possibly high $290s towards the end of December. On a bullish scenario, Bitcoin may try to go back to above the 100 MA which means a $360 price.