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Author Topic: Butterfly Labs ASIC Gear Potential  (Read 6306 times)
rjk
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June 19, 2012, 03:50:56 PM
 #21

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!
Isn't there a limit on how quickly the difficulty can increase? Does anyone know what that limit is?

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
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June 19, 2012, 03:54:47 PM
 #22

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

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BCMan
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June 19, 2012, 03:55:37 PM
 #23

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!
Isn't there a limit on how quickly the difficulty can increase? Does anyone know what that limit is?
Yeah, my broadband ISP. 100500 difficulty increase is a serious issue.

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June 19, 2012, 03:59:10 PM
 #24

Isn't there a limit on how quickly the difficulty can increase? Does anyone know what that limit is?
It can increase by up to 4 times every retarget. But note that if the network hashrate massively increases without the difficulty keeping up, retargets will be more rapid than once every 2 weeks, so the difficulty can actually increase quite fast.

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June 19, 2012, 04:01:06 PM
 #25

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!
Isn't there a limit on how quickly the difficulty can increase? Does anyone know what that limit is?

I don't think so. I know it's recalculated every 2016 blocks to take 2 weeks, and readjusts the difficulty to compensate if those 2016 blocks took longer then or shorter than 2 weeks time. If done in 12 days, then it's going to jump by ~17%. If it's done in 10 days, then it increases ~40%. If it's done in 16 days, it goes down ~13%. Etc, etc.

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cmg5461
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June 19, 2012, 04:01:21 PM
 #26

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

Did you account for the difficulty rising twice (possibly 3 or even 4 times) during that period?

When companies order chips like these, they arrive all at once..  If BFL has any common sense, they will flood the market with these things so everyone has a 'chance' at getting the first 1TH/s machine.  Then everyone will complain that their ROI has risen back to 2 years.

If I've helped: 1CmguJhwW4sbtSMFsyaafikJ8jhYS61quz

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seriouscoin
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June 19, 2012, 04:06:19 PM
 #27

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot
cmg5461
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June 19, 2012, 04:07:59 PM
 #28

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot


because they can conquer the market selling at 95% of the competition.

remember those are prices for SPECULATED performance specs.  Look what happened to the single and minirig

If I've helped: 1CmguJhwW4sbtSMFsyaafikJ8jhYS61quz

Sold: 5850 to lepenguin. Quick, easy and trustworthy.
seriouscoin
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June 19, 2012, 04:09:50 PM
 #29

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

Did you account for the difficulty rising twice (possibly 3 or even 4 times) during that period?

When companies order chips like these, they arrive all at once..  If BFL has any common sense, they will flood the market with these things so everyone has a 'chance' at getting the first 1TH/s machine.  Then everyone will complain that their ROI has risen back to 2 years.

If BFL has any common sense, they wouldnt have done what they did so far.

Its a dirty trick and most possibly leads to a scam.

As you said, many ppl will try to have " the first chance"

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imsaguy
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June 19, 2012, 04:10:05 PM
 #30

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!
Isn't there a limit on how quickly the difficulty can increase? Does anyone know what that limit is?

Yes, up to 4x per change.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
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seriouscoin
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June 19, 2012, 04:12:22 PM
 #31

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot


because they can conquer the market selling at 95% of the competition.

remember those are prices for SPECULATED performance specs.  Look what happened to the single and minirig

There are 2 main way to conquere the market, only one is used but never both:
+ Lowest price point
OR
+ Most technology breakthro in your products line.

So yes, they're bluffing to fool idiots.
davidspitzer
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June 19, 2012, 04:14:23 PM
 #32

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

Did you account for the difficulty rising twice (possibly 3 or even 4 times) during that period?

When companies order chips like these, they arrive all at once..  If BFL has any common sense, they will flood the market with these things so everyone has a 'chance' at getting the first 1TH/s machine.  Then everyone will complain that their ROI has risen back to 2 years.

1 month gross rates for 1TH/s at $6.38 exchange rate

At present difficulty and 25 reward  - $62850.86 USD
Double the Difficulty 25 reward - $31425.43 USD
Triple the Difficulty 25 reward - $20950.29 USD
Quadruple the Difficulty 25 reward - $15712.71 USD

It still seems to me that even as the difficulty ramps up if you are one of the first to market that you will enjoy a good rate of return until the field equalizes. So your actual return over the first 6 months would probably be a sliding scale of upward difficulty but your initial investment seems like it should be paid off rather quickly

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cmg5461
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June 19, 2012, 04:14:47 PM
 #33

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot


because they can conquer the market selling at 95% of the competition.

remember those are prices for SPECULATED performance specs.  Look what happened to the single and minirig

There are 2 main way to conquere the market, only one is used but never both:
+ Lowest price point
OR
+ Most technology breakthro in your products line.

So yes, they're bluffing to fool idiots.


They should have waited to announce this once they had their beta up and running.  If they ever will.

If I've helped: 1CmguJhwW4sbtSMFsyaafikJ8jhYS61quz

Sold: 5850 to lepenguin. Quick, easy and trustworthy.
imsaguy
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June 19, 2012, 04:16:44 PM
 #34

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

Did you account for the difficulty rising twice (possibly 3 or even 4 times) during that period?

When companies order chips like these, they arrive all at once..  If BFL has any common sense, they will flood the market with these things so everyone has a 'chance' at getting the first 1TH/s machine.  Then everyone will complain that their ROI has risen back to 2 years.

1 month gross rates for 1TH/s at $6.38 exchange rate

At present difficulty and 25 reward  - $62850.86 USD
Double the Difficulty 25 reward - $31425.43 USD
Triple the Difficulty 25 reward - $20950.29 USD
Quadruple the Difficulty 25 reward - $15712.71 USD

It still seems to me that even as the difficulty ramps up if you are one of the first to market that you will enjoy a good rate of return until the field equalizes. So your actual return over the first 6 months would probably be a sliding scale of upward difficulty but your initial investment seems like it should be paid off rather quickly

Your estimates are off.  Every 2016 blocks, the difficulty would most likely quadruple.  Which means in the first week, you'd already see your max profits get quartered.  Give it another week (if it even takes that long) and they get quartered again (1/16).  Another week, another quarter (1/64).  The final week, another quarter (1/256).  Not as shiny, is it?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
cmg5461
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June 19, 2012, 04:17:05 PM
 #35

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!

When I plug the numbers, at Double the Difficulty and Half the reward the gear would still be repaid ($30,000) in 30 days

Did you account for the difficulty rising twice (possibly 3 or even 4 times) during that period?

When companies order chips like these, they arrive all at once..  If BFL has any common sense, they will flood the market with these things so everyone has a 'chance' at getting the first 1TH/s machine.  Then everyone will complain that their ROI has risen back to 2 years.

1 month gross rates for 1TH/s at $6.38 exchange rate

At present difficulty and 25 reward  - $62850.86 USD
Double the Difficulty 25 reward - $31425.43 USD
Triple the Difficulty 25 reward - $20950.29 USD
Quadruple the Difficulty 25 reward - $15712.71 USD

It still seems to me that even as the difficulty ramps up if you are one of the first to market that you will enjoy a good rate of return until the field equalizes. So your actual return over the first 6 months would probably be a sliding scale of upward difficulty but your initial investment seems like it should be paid off rather quickly

Do the math for an increase in difficulty every 7 days, which doubles.

If I've helped: 1CmguJhwW4sbtSMFsyaafikJ8jhYS61quz

Sold: 5850 to lepenguin. Quick, easy and trustworthy.
cmg5461
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June 19, 2012, 04:17:59 PM
 #36

Your estimates are off.  Every 2016 blocks, the difficulty would most likely quadruple.  Which means in the first week, you'd already see your max profits get quartered.  Give it another week (if it even takes that long) and they get quartered again (1/16).  Another week, another quarter (1/64).  The final week, another quarter (1/256).  Not as shiny, is it?

even by 1/2, a shit storm is brewing!

1/(2^n) Wink

Also, if it quadrupled like that, the difficulty would increase every 3.5 days.  That's scary.

If I've helped: 1CmguJhwW4sbtSMFsyaafikJ8jhYS61quz

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davidspitzer
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June 19, 2012, 04:19:19 PM
 #37

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot


because they can conquer the market selling at 95% of the competition.

remember those are prices for SPECULATED performance specs.  Look what happened to the single and minirig

There are 2 main way to conquere the market, only one is used but never both:
+ Lowest price point
OR
+ Most technology breakthro in your products line.

So yes, they're bluffing to fool idiots.


Apparently based on your posts you consider everyone to be an idiot.


In case you were curious:

ad hominem
You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits instead of engaging with their argument.
Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes. The desired result of an ad hom attack is to undermine one's opponent without actually having to engage with their argument or present a compelling argument of one's own.

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June 19, 2012, 04:20:32 PM
 #38


Apparently based on your posts you consider everyone to be an idiot.


In case you were curious:

ad hominem
You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits instead of engaging with their argument.
Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes. The desired result of an ad hom attack is to undermine one's opponent without actually having to engage with their argument or present a compelling argument of one's own.


+1

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June 19, 2012, 04:21:51 PM
 #39

Don't forget about market depth when performing your calculations.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
seriouscoin
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June 19, 2012, 04:22:22 PM
 #40

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

My point is exactly that.

As someone pointed out, it does not make any financial sense for such price point.

Its not like they can have trillions chips to ship.

Anyone thinks the low price point is to completely conquer the market is idiot


because they can conquer the market selling at 95% of the competition.

remember those are prices for SPECULATED performance specs.  Look what happened to the single and minirig

There are 2 main way to conquere the market, only one is used but never both:
+ Lowest price point
OR
+ Most technology breakthro in your products line.

So yes, they're bluffing to fool idiots.


Apparently based on your posts you consider everyone to be an idiot.


In case you were curious:

ad hominem
You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits instead of engaging with their argument.
Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes. The desired result of an ad hom attack is to undermine one's opponent without actually having to engage with their argument or present a compelling argument of one's own.

You got reading comprehension? I dont believe any of their bluff. And i'm sure i'm not the only one.

You, on the other hand .....
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