Bitcoin Forum
July 20, 2018, 10:58:43 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.1  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [All]
  Print  
Author Topic: Mining difficulty rate!!  (Read 12839 times)
Kmitchell03
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 26
Merit: 0


K Mitch


View Profile
May 18, 2011, 11:10:57 PM
 #1

Wow! The mining difficulty rate just jumped huge! was at like 154740 now is 244139!! Thats like a 60% increase! Please tell me it's an error...

http://deepbit.net/userbar/4dbf221e816197c1db000002_02e24acb5b.png (http://deepbit.net)

"Don't part with your illusions. When they are gone, you may still exist, but you have ceased to live."
Mark Twain
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
"This isn't the kind of software where we can leave so many unresolved bugs that we need a tracker for them." -- Satoshi
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
1532127523
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1532127523

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1532127523
Reply with quote  #2

1532127523
Report to moderator
BitLex
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 588
Merit: 500


View Profile
May 18, 2011, 11:14:17 PM
 #2

it's an error (and this is a lie, but you asked for it)

bulanula
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500



View Profile
May 18, 2011, 11:14:44 PM
 #3

LOL it is not.

Next will likely be 600 000.

Seems like somebody covertly got hold of some "magij mechanic" custom ASIC or FPGA solution in the recent days that vastly outclasses all of these improvised-miner ATI cards.

Eg just like how the cpu became obsolete so will the ati gpu become obsolete for mining but what if nobody shows us this custom ASIC Huh or maybe the gov. just wanted a share of the pie etc. ! who knows eh ?
shackra
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238
Merit: 100


1 Pedro 3:15-16 (DHH)


View Profile WWW
May 18, 2011, 11:17:59 PM
 #4

in fact, is true, check http://bitcoincharts.com, the difficulty is in 244139 :-|

Bitcoin-OTC | GPG: 43C5AF3C1C559BA2
grndzero
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 18, 2011, 11:22:09 PM
 #5

I was almost right, as sad as I am to say it. My prediction was 245,000-255,000. Much closer than the people thinking 200-210,000.

Ubuntu Desktop x64 -  HD5850 Reference - 400Mh/s w/ cgminer  @ 975C/325M/1.175V - 11.6/2.1 SDK
Donate if you find this helpful: 1NimouHg2acbXNfMt5waJ7ohKs2TtYHePy
shackra
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238
Merit: 100


1 Pedro 3:15-16 (DHH)


View Profile WWW
May 18, 2011, 11:26:38 PM
 #6

well, in this situation is better buy bitcoins than make some mining... because the difficulty will grow more :-/... oh wait... the difficulty affect the value of the bitcoin?

Bitcoin-OTC | GPG: 43C5AF3C1C559BA2
darvil
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 73
Merit: 10


View Profile
May 19, 2011, 12:10:56 AM
 #7

ouch thats a big jump.

daily earning down alot too Sad 
cypherf0x
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28
Merit: 0


Computer Engineer


View Profile
May 19, 2011, 06:31:52 PM
 #8

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

Open Source/hardware mining hardware project
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8987.0
bitjet
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 694
Merit: 500



View Profile
May 19, 2011, 08:22:12 PM
 #9

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

care to cite this?

CENTRA

            ▄▄▄██████████▄▄▄
        ▄▄████████████████████▄▄
      ▄███████▀▀         ▀▀███████▄
    ▄█████▀                  ▀██████
   █████▀      ▄▄▄█████▄▄      ▀█████▄
  █████     ▄██████████████▄     ▀████▄
 █████     ██████▀▀  ▀▀██████▄    ▀████
▐████     █████          █████     █████
█████    ▐████                     ▐████
█████    █████                     ▐████
█████     █████          ▄████▌    █████
 ████▌    ▀█████▄▄    ▄▄█████▀    ▄████▌
 ▀████▄     ▀██████████████▀     ▄████▀
  ▀█████▄     `▀████████▀▀     ▄█████▀
   `██████▄                  ▄██████
     ▀███████▄▄          ▄▄███████▀
       ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀█████████████▀▀

.
.
.
.
Dhomochevsky
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 240
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 19, 2011, 08:30:22 PM
 #10

I don't think it's because of two clusters. They would need more than half the hashing power of the network during that particular cycle (roughly 1THps for both of them combined) in order to make the difficulty jump 60%. And that is rather far fetched.
ryepdx
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 500



View Profile WWW
May 19, 2011, 09:01:58 PM
 #11

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

care to cite this?

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8543.msg125582#msg125582

I don't think it's because of two clusters. They would need more than half the hashing power of the network during that particular cycle (roughly 1THps for both of them combined) in order to make the difficulty jump 60%. And that is rather far fetched.

I really hope you're wrong, but...
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8543.msg125646#msg125646
MysteryMiner
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000



View Profile
May 19, 2011, 10:47:20 PM
 #12

Now the odds for me getting one block is pretty small.

Do not trust commercial VPN to save You from oppressive government! Get VPN service offered by a real cyber-dissenter https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4426691.0

1PG5HMwN51j8xYHKVFv9h1Tw4Jzc3fWXw3
ryepdx
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 500



View Profile WWW
May 19, 2011, 11:20:43 PM
 #13

Now the odds for me getting one block is pretty small.

LOL.   Cheesy

As for all of you who have been freaking out about the jump, perhaps it wasn't as much of a jump as you thought:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7725.msg128908#msg128908

Looks like someone was able to predict the current number to within 0.36% about ten days ago.

Although I admit I'm a little fuzzy about how difficulty adjustment works. If the algorithm takes the average time over the whole two week period, then it might have been that cypherf0x's cluster didn't come online soon enough to greatly affect the overall average. If that's the case, we may be seeing an even bigger rise another two weeks from now, one that violates the approximate 2.5% rate of growth we've been seeing so far.
cablepair
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854
Merit: 1000


These days, i am Crazy.


View Profile WWW
May 19, 2011, 11:28:47 PM
 #14

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.
MysteryMiner
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000



View Profile
May 19, 2011, 11:35:03 PM
 #15

I was expecting large jump, but not so huge.

I was expecting to get my block about now, predicted by bitcoin calc average. I am past the 50% chance.

For some people it is get rich scheme. They invest real money in GPU mining hardware, but forget that there is only 50BTC generated every 10 minutes, and in preset time the reward will decrease to 25BTC and so on. Pumping large power in network only makes the whole network stronger, the powerful miner will enjoy his sucess for maximum of 2 weeks.

Better invest something in the real market. Not many of us are ready to sell expensive items or services for BTC. Yet selling your old computer for BTC can be more rewarding than mining and hoarding bitcoins, because if everyone start to sell valuable items for bitcoins, the value will skyrocket.

Do not trust commercial VPN to save You from oppressive government! Get VPN service offered by a real cyber-dissenter https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4426691.0

1PG5HMwN51j8xYHKVFv9h1Tw4Jzc3fWXw3
kjj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 19, 2011, 11:48:53 PM
 #16

The retarget process takes the rate that was appropriate a week (1008 blocks) ago and increases it by the amount necessary to make it appropriate a week (1008 blocks) from now.

The jump from the before block to the after is huge because it includes 2 weeks of growth in an instant.  In this case, about 3.5% daily growth.

If the global hashing pool had grown by a factor of 10 a day or two ago, it would have had nearly no effect on the current target.  Instead you'd have seen is a huge reduction in the mean block time, which has not happened.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8
I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs.  You should too.
ryepdx
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 500



View Profile WWW
May 20, 2011, 12:17:07 AM
 #17

Thanks for the explanation, kjj.
cablepair
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854
Merit: 1000


These days, i am Crazy.


View Profile WWW
May 20, 2011, 12:46:50 AM
 #18

to put it into perspective


before the last difficulty jump I was getting about .17 .20 per round
now I am getting .13 .19 per round
approximately


that is mining with 1 g/hash

use the numbers to figure out what the difficulty jump means to you.
benjamindees
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 20, 2011, 01:22:08 AM
 #19

"per round" is not any type of standard metric

Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics
cablepair
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854
Merit: 1000


These days, i am Crazy.


View Profile WWW
May 20, 2011, 05:31:25 PM
 #20

yeah I  know that its not supposed to be any kind of usable metric

but I can't deny the fact that my reward per round has gone down in a very real and noticeable way since the difficulty jump.
JJG
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 10


View Profile
May 20, 2011, 05:34:02 PM
 #21

yeah I  know that its not supposed to be any kind of usable metric

but I can't deny the fact that my reward per round has gone down in a very real and noticeable way since the difficulty jump.

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.
Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 20, 2011, 06:26:28 PM
 #22

Is there a chart that shows difficulty rates plotted vs. dates of when the changed?

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
m4rkiz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 170
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 21, 2011, 09:07:59 PM
 #23

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.

more like 5 days
allinvain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2576
Merit: 1050



View Profile
May 21, 2011, 09:35:05 PM
 #24

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.

more like 5 days

You're talking about another difficulty increase? Already 2016 blocks have passed? Damn!

bittrader
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 0



View Profile
May 21, 2011, 10:10:06 PM
 #25

Is there a chart that shows difficulty rates plotted vs. dates of when the changed?

There are such charts here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
sir murray
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 31
Merit: 0



View Profile
May 21, 2011, 11:37:07 PM
 #26

If the value of BTC doesn't change or decreases, how long before mining becomes wholly unprofitable? When is the next difficulty increase? How huge will it be? I'm generating pretty much half of what I used to by mining. If the advantages of mining depreciates, where is the incentive to do so for pools?
m4rkiz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 170
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 22, 2011, 07:48:13 AM
 #27

You're talking about another difficulty increase? Already 2016 blocks have passed? Damn!

simplest way is go to http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

there is some handy data there:

estimated difficulty - currently it is 360777

number of block left until difficulty change - 1294

and finally Blocks/hour ratio, which is currently 12.41

all you need to do is 1294/12.41 = 104 hours / 24 = 4 days and 8 hours until difficulty increase from current 244139 to est. ~360777
HudsonStan
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 34
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 06:37:58 AM
 #28

Next difficulty level will probably be 400k+
Mining is still too profitable to slowdown growth of network hashrate.

1Bgii2mFTks2xbtF7RBk6ZzSTP5rvyQEKB
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 06:48:35 AM
 #29

I believe these numbers are correct:
Code:
            Difficulty     Average to win  Rise from previous
Previous:    157,416.40     1.13 Ghashes/s
Current:     244,112.48     1.75 Ghashes/s 55.07%
Next (est):  393,849.00     2.82 Ghashes/s 61.34%

If you are interested I got my raw historical data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash and the estimate next difficulty here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ (at the top of the page - will happen in 789 more blocks as of the time of this post)

Update: Latest estimate is 394,778 in 768 more blocks.  You can always look here http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ to see the latest estimate.  It does look like it may exceed 400,000 by the time it happens.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 06:05:52 PM
 #30

Here are some more numbers to ponder...

Code:
  Block            Ghashs/s  Network
 Number Difficulty   to win Thashs/s
------- ---------- -------- --------
114,912     68,978      494   0.5174
116,928     82,346      589   0.8061
118,944     92,348      661   0.6912
120,960    109,670      785   0.9677
122,976    157,416    1,127   1.4728
124,992    244,112    1,747   2.9360
next?      400,000    2,863   3.5692
next?      500,000    3,579   4.4615
?          600,000    4,295   5.3538
?          700,000    5,011   6.2461
?          800,000    5,727   7.1384
?          900,000    6,443   8.0307
?        1,000,000    7,158   8.9230

The Ghashs/s to win listed in this table does not get you a win.  It only gets you into the ballpark where you should be able to win some blocks.

Discouraging to me anyway.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 06:23:31 PM
 #31

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 06:27:07 PM
 #32

The only "bright spot" on the horizon is that it appears the world is running out of high end video cards (until they make some more).

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 07:14:06 PM
 #33

Discouraging to me anyway.

I think you are way off on your next difficulty increase, its increasing exponentially, and given that there are millions of untapped GPUs just sitting idle there is absolutely no reason to believe it won't continue, that would put the next difficulty at 655,000 minimum and more likely 700,000.

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

I would guess its a matter of weeks, anyone who has spent money on a dedicated rig in the last few weeks is in for some hurt.

The only "bright spot" on the horizon is that it appears the world is running out of high end video cards (until they make some more).

There are many available if you look in the right places (not ebay), and don't worry, once the difficulty hits 1.2M in 20 days you will see more video cards on ebay than you ever have before Cheesy

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
acamus
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 07:17:28 PM
 #34

Wish I found out back when cpu mining was still an option. The good news is that if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Edit: should have used the quote feature, I was talking about what Gameover said here : "There are many available if you look in the right places (not ebay), and don't worry, once the difficulty hits 1.2M in 20 days you will see more video cards on ebay than you ever have before"

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
15V8JNvmvuWnRF3r6hfTyLL1ukyfp
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 07:18:17 PM
 #35

if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Correct, but why would you expect everyone to sell their cards?
acamus
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 07:31:08 PM
 #36

if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Correct, but why would you expect everyone to sell their cards?


They could sell their cards for Bitcoins...

Now that is a big idea

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
15V8JNvmvuWnRF3r6hfTyLL1ukyfp
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 07:54:50 PM
 #37

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

I would guess its a matter of weeks, anyone who has spent money on a dedicated rig in the last few weeks is in for some hurt.


LOL, yeah, I was trying to be a bit optimistic. I've still got £200 pounds to go before my rigs are fully paid for, and am making £40 to £50 per day (1 BTC = $7, that is)... so I should get my money back before the profitable mining runs out..... pray

Definitely going to be a lot equipment out there sitting idle soon.
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2520
Merit: 1006



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 08:08:55 PM
 #38

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.

Price we pay? Guys, this is good for bitcoin. Makes us even harder to attack. It protects the value we have mined so far. Don't complain about new people getting in, they're helping the economy, spread the word and strengthen our security.

If difficulty was dropping... now that would get me worried.

I, personally, am not here to make a profit (I didn't even sell the bitcoins I would need to recover my miner cost), but am hoping to make the world a better place (however romantic/idealistic that might sound). Bitcoin is a money of (by and for) the people.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 08:13:51 PM
 #39

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.

Price we pay? Guys, this is good for bitcoin. Makes us even harder to attack. It protects the value we have mined so far. Don't complain about new people getting in, they're helping the economy, spread the word and strengthen our security.

If difficulty was dropping... now that would get me worried.

I, personally, am not here to make a profit (I didn't even sell the bitcoins I would need to recover my miner cost), but am hoping to make the world a better place (however romantic/idealistic that might sound). Bitcoin is a money of (by and for) the people.

Yeah, you said it comrade. Keep the red flag flying high  Wink
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2520
Merit: 1006



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 08:22:44 PM
 #40

Yeah, you said it comrade. Keep the red flag flying high  Wink

Hey, so I'm a capitalist communist? Cool!

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
anisoptera
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 10



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 08:29:36 PM
 #41

This is great for us. Seriously.

As the bitcoin economy grows, the value contained in it rises - we see this in the exchange rate.

The high exchange rate pushes people to mine. More miners means the computer power securing the network is larger. We see this in the difficulty rate.

The strength of the network should rise proportionally to the value contained in it. And this is proving to be the case.

In general the exchange rate and difficulty rise should provide for the same amount of value produced from mining, even if the numbers are smaller.

Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 08:49:37 PM
 #42

Yeah, you said it comrade. Keep the red flag flying high  Wink

Hey, so I'm a capitalist communist? Cool!

Hmm, didn't think of that.. the Chinese have proven that combination seriously rocks
fasti
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 92
Merit: 10


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 09:27:54 PM
 #43

Many people might just stop getting more after getting that 1-2 gpu upgrade for their ~gaming pc.

1QCcAR3e3wdxr7CcJ8ND1NmWuvLttCJScH
Freakin
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 09:34:32 PM
 #44

Many people might just stop getting more after getting that 1-2 gpu upgrade for their ~gaming pc.

And others will continue to jump on board and do the same 1-2GPU upgrade for their gaming rig.  Still others will build high powered dedicated mining rigs and not realize until a month from now that they'll never pay them off.

DarkKnightNomeD
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 09:50:57 PM
 #45

I have some questions, basically whats causing the EXPLOSION of difficulty?

is someone with a couple of million dollars blow, mining bitcoins???

second, basically, whats causing the value of bitcoin to go up?

as a noob to all of this, i would assume the value would go up with difficulty
rezin777
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 09:57:47 PM
 #46

I have some questions, basically whats causing the EXPLOSION of difficulty?

Lagged reaction to high exchange rate. When Bitcoin hit USD 7+ it was insanely profitable to mine.

second, basically, whats causing the value of bitcoin to go up?

as a noob to all of this, i would assume the value would go up with difficulty

The value goes up because people value it, that simple. Whether it's a long term investment, or short term speculation, it's hard to say.

Price drives difficulty, not vice-versa. Demand creates supply. Supply does not create demand.
SgtSpike
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 09:58:35 PM
 #47

I have some questions, basically whats causing the EXPLOSION of difficulty?

is someone with a couple of million dollars blow, mining bitcoins???

second, basically, whats causing the value of bitcoin to go up?

as a noob to all of this, i would assume the value would go up with difficulty
The cause?  A huge influx of people buying up video cards in hopes of making a fortune with bitcoins.  There is lag time involved in getting video cards up and running, so people who bought two weeks ago are still setting up their new systems, etc.
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 10:02:23 PM
 #48

Price drives difficulty, not vice-versa. Demand creates supply. Supply does not create demand.

Neither demand creates supply nor does supply create demand.  Higher demand raises price, lower supply also raises price, etc.

What people don't understand is that increasing difficulty doesn't decrease supply because supply is fixed (300/hour), at least over a long enough time period for difficulty to adjust.   In the short term there are fluctuations in the block rate.

Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 10:04:17 PM
 #49

if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.
Correct, but why would you expect everyone to sell their cards?

I am only referring to the cards that were specifically bought for mining, what are you going to do with 4, 8, or 30 graphics cards?  Selling them is the best option.

LOL, yeah, I was trying to be a bit optimistic. I've still got £200 pounds to go before my rigs are fully paid for, and am making £40 to £50 per day (1 BTC = $7, that is)... so I should get my money back before the profitable mining runs out..... pray

So you are only 5 days out at the current difficulty, and 7-8 days out after the difficulty bump in a 2 days, you will definitely pay for your rig.  The more interesting question is was it worth it?  Only the future value of bitcoin can decide that, and since your return is based on the value of bitcoin increasing you probably should have simply bought bitcoins?  You will have roughly 10-15 days of profit at half of current profit levels (due to difficulty increases).  Beyond that if bitcoin value doesn't increase profits will be minimal and bitcoin will quickly merge to a value of electricity or below since there are many people who get their electricity in offices and apts for free.

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 10:10:26 PM
 #50

The cause?  A huge influx of people buying up video cards in hopes of making a fortune with bitcoins.  There is lag time involved in getting video cards up and running, so people who bought two weeks ago are still setting up their new systems, etc.

Is there any data to back this up?  I find it more likely the huge increases are being caused by hoards of new miners with unused GPUs rather than dedicated miners buying many cards.  If you have 1000 dedicated miners buying 4 cards each that is 4000.  On the other side of the coin Wink news of bitcoin in the media reaches millions of people, if only a fraction of those mine that is going to blow by the 1000 dedicated people upgrading very quickly, and it has the exponential effect, they tell N friends, those friends tell N friends and so on, that's how things increase exponentially.  If it were mainly people upgrading the increase would be much more linear or flat.  Of course the real world sees increases from both groups, but the explosion part is from new people, not upgrades.

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
DarkKnightNomeD
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 10:20:28 PM
 #51

i have another question, who out there right now, is the top person telling people about bitcoins on radio station networks and on TV Media

and do you think that pooled mining will ultimately be the end game for bitcoin mining after the difficulty gets to a certian xxxxxxxx difficulty?
rezin777
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 10:22:06 PM
 #52

Price drives difficulty, not vice-versa. Demand creates supply. Supply does not create demand.

Neither demand creates supply nor does supply create demand.  Higher demand raises price, lower supply also raises price, etc.

What people don't understand is that increasing difficulty doesn't decrease supply because supply is fixed (300/hour), at least over a long enough time period for difficulty to adjust.   In the short term there are fluctuations in the block rate.



I should have been more specific, I didn't think it was necessary. Demand sets price ceiling, supply sets price floor. But this isn't exact, people can lose money. Yes, with Bitcoin the supply attempts to be fixed, but without demand, the coins are worthless.

What we have with Bitcoin is people competing to grab that limited supply. The only reason for competition would be a healthy demand for Bitcoins.
rezin777
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 24, 2011, 10:27:48 PM
 #53

i have another question, who out there right now, is the top person telling people about bitcoins on radio station networks and on TV Media

and do you think that pooled mining will ultimately be the end game for bitcoin mining after the difficulty gets to a certian xxxxxxxx difficulty?

Who knows? Many people are promoting Bitcoin.

Pooled mining only reduces variance. If a pool is charging a fee, and you have enough hashing power to mine solo, you will make more coins solo in the long run. At some point it becomes pointless to mine solo, because the difficulty will increase before you are likely to find the next block.
SgtSpike
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 10:50:27 PM
 #54

The cause?  A huge influx of people buying up video cards in hopes of making a fortune with bitcoins.  There is lag time involved in getting video cards up and running, so people who bought two weeks ago are still setting up their new systems, etc.

Is there any data to back this up?  I find it more likely the huge increases are being caused by hoards of new miners with unused GPUs rather than dedicated miners buying many cards.  If you have 1000 dedicated miners buying 4 cards each that is 4000.  On the other side of the coin Wink news of bitcoin in the media reaches millions of people, if only a fraction of those mine that is going to blow by the 1000 dedicated people upgrading very quickly, and it has the exponential effect, they tell N friends, those friends tell N friends and so on, that's how things increase exponentially.  If it were mainly people upgrading the increase would be much more linear or flat.  Of course the real world sees increases from both groups, but the explosion part is from new people, not upgrades.
*shrug*

I think the sudden out-of-stock status of many popular mining video cards indicates a good deal more than normal buyers are out there.  I'm certain it is both a combination of new miners using existing hardware and existing miners using new hardware, but there's definitely a LOT of video card buying going on out there.

Heck, between myself and 4 friends who got interested in bitcoins, we've bought 10 video cards.
Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 11:37:23 PM
 #55

What we have with Bitcoin is people competing to grab that limited supply. The only reason for competition would be a healthy demand for Bitcoins.

Not necessarily healthy demand, hoarding is unhealthy demand, because once all coins are hoarded there is nothing more to hoard and the bottom falls out.

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 25, 2011, 09:46:27 AM
 #56

i have another question, who out there right now, is the top person telling people about bitcoins on radio station networks and on TV Media

and do you think that pooled mining will ultimately be the end game for bitcoin mining after the difficulty gets to a certian xxxxxxxx difficulty?

Simple word of mouth is more than enough to pull in soo many miners that it will not be long before it costs more to run your rigs than your are earning from them. I'm afraid I am a good example. As soon as I found out about this, a couple of months ago, I told just about everybody I know. Most didn't bother with it, but some did. And one of those has just configured all the computers in the labs at the University where he works to run as miners overnight !!!

Just imagine the people he knows (other Universities), and if they act on this. No overheads to pay, and a shed load of hardware !!!
Gameover
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


View Profile WWW
May 25, 2011, 02:04:09 PM
 #57

i have another question, who out there right now, is the top person telling people about bitcoins on radio station networks and on TV Media

and do you think that pooled mining will ultimately be the end game for bitcoin mining after the difficulty gets to a certian xxxxxxxx difficulty?

Simple word of mouth is more than enough to pull in soo many miners that it will not be long before it costs more to run your rigs than your are earning from them. I'm afraid I am a good example. As soon as I found out about this, a couple of months ago, I told just about everybody I know. Most didn't bother with it, but some did. And one of those has just configured all the computers in the labs at the University where he works to run as miners overnight !!!

Just imagine the people he knows (other Universities), and if they act on this. No overheads to pay, and a shed load of hardware !!!

this is true but it isn't feasible long term, as soon as that computer lab sees their power bill go up by 500% you bet your ass that student is going to get caught, they have surveillance most likely.

NEURAL.CLUB - FIRST SOCIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
carp
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 82
Merit: 10


View Profile
May 25, 2011, 02:22:21 PM
 #58

i have another question, who out there right now, is the top person telling people about bitcoins on radio station networks and on TV Media

and do you think that pooled mining will ultimately be the end game for bitcoin mining after the difficulty gets to a certian xxxxxxxx difficulty?

Simple word of mouth is more than enough to pull in soo many miners that it will not be long before it costs more to run your rigs than your are earning from them. I'm afraid I am a good example. As soon as I found out about this, a couple of months ago, I told just about everybody I know. Most didn't bother with it, but some did. And one of those has just configured all the computers in the labs at the University where he works to run as miners overnight !!!

Just imagine the people he knows (other Universities), and if they act on this. No overheads to pay, and a shed load of hardware !!!

I bet you or he think this is a really original idea. I worked as an admin at a University, where some idiot tried to run "seti @home" on the main computational server. We caught him, and when he did it again, sent him in for disciplinary action. The lab computers are for everyones use and chewing up their resources will get noticed.

By the time he did it with Seti @Home, it wasn't original. I saw a friend of mine (dating myself here) get caught trying it with... deschall (http://www.interhack.net/projects/deschall/what.html) .
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 25, 2011, 02:36:51 PM
 #59

this is true but it isn't feasible long term, as soon as that computer lab sees their power bill go up by 500% you bet your ass that student is going to get caught, they have surveillance most likely.

LOL, yeah, very true.

He's part of the tech support team. No way a student could do that. There's no access to most of the labs after a certain time. I believe one is available for students out of hours, but they must use their ID/access card to enter.


I bet you or he think this is a really original idea. I worked as an admin at a University, where some idiot tried to run "seti @home" on the main computational server. We caught him, and when he did it again, sent him in for disciplinary action. The lab computers are for everyones use and chewing up their resources will get noticed.

By the time he did it with Seti @Home, it wasn't original. I saw a friend of mine (dating myself here) get caught trying it with... deschall (http://www.interhack.net/projects/deschall/what.html) .

Who cares about originality. The only thing that matters is that it works Smiley
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 26, 2011, 07:24:12 PM
 #60

Check out the latest numbers:

Network: 6.996 Thashs/s !!

Current difficulty:  434,883

Next difficulty in 2010 blocks:  1,102,949 !!

Also the largest growth was in the "other" category (not any one coop).  In fact deepbit is now less than 25% and could be as low a 20%!

Sources:  http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ and http://bitcoinwatch.com/

Wild, check out this chart: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
vuce
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 26, 2011, 07:30:06 PM
 #61

Check out the latest numbers:

Network: 6.996 Thashs/s !!

Current difficulty:  434,883

Next difficulty in 2010 blocks:  1,102,949 !!

Also the largest growth was in the "other" category (not any one coop).  In fact deepbit is now less than 25% and could be as low a 20%!

Sources:  http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ and http://bitcoinwatch.com/

Wild, check out this chart: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png
those numbers are wrong.
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 26, 2011, 07:38:04 PM
 #62

Are you saying the sipa chart is wrong?  What is wrong with the numbers?  They are all from reputable sources AFAIK.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Nythain
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 07:42:36 PM
 #63

Are you saying the sipa chart is wrong?  What is wrong with the numbers?  They are all from reputable sources AFAIK.
Its too soon after the difficulty adjustment. All calculations are averages and there's not enough to deal with for accurate numbers right now. Wait about 24 hours or a couple hundred blocks and you will see much more accurate numbers for network hashrates and estimated next difficulty.

TradeHill Bitcoin Exchange (https://www.tradehill.com)                    Bitcoin Randomizer (http://fxnet.bitlex.org/?ref=885)
http://bleedkira.netau.net/img.php?key=918d34b180574cd7338824ef49d257d0&site=btcguild (https://www.btcguild.com)
kjj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 07:58:26 PM
 #64

Notice how there are wild swings in the 1 day estimate after the difficulty increases?  Basically, those aren't real.  They show up because the estimation formula doesn't have enough data to smooth out short term variance.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8
I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs.  You should too.
allinvain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2576
Merit: 1050



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 08:00:51 PM
 #65

Difficulty is slowly but surely catching up to price. Makes me wonder if we're going to see another rally in price. This is not to say that the two are related but just maybe new people will come on board and drive up the price up again...we shall see.

BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 26, 2011, 08:07:25 PM
 #66

Notice how there are wild swings in the 1 day estimate after the difficulty increases?  Basically, those aren't real.  They show up because the estimation formula doesn't have enough data to smooth out short term variance.
Thanks for the clarification.  The point still remains that the Thashs/s and difficulty are going up exponentially and the dwindling supply of video cards seems to be the only thing that will slow down the growth rate short term.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Dobrodav
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 280
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 08:23:35 PM
 #67

Network total estimated from dificulty. It relays on assumation, that interval between blocks are 600 sec.
But remember, when you last time seen rate of 6 block per hour ?
Pools report their actual total. So, difficulty grows - network total hops to reflect that grow (and again, that is shown lower than it is), deepbit ans Slushi pools are the same, other - huge up.

xenon481
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 09:36:49 PM
 #68

Are you saying the sipa chart is wrong?  What is wrong with the numbers?  They are all from reputable sources AFAIK.

The Sipa chart is correct; the BitcoinCharts numbers are always incorrect immediately after a difficulty change.

Notice that the Sipa chart says ~4THash/s while BitcoinCharts says ~7THash/s.

Tips Appreciated: 171TQ2wJg7bxj2q68VNibU75YZB22b7ZDr
BurtW
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1006

All paid signature campaigns should be banned.


View Profile WWW
May 26, 2011, 09:40:03 PM
 #69

... interval between blocks are 600 sec. But remember, when you last time seen rate of 6 block per hour? ...

This brings up a question I have been wondering about for a while.  Since the system is targeting an average of 6 blocks per hour and we have seen about double that for a while wouldn't is stand to reason that the difficulty will eventually have to be such as to bring the production down below 6 per hour in order to maintain an average 6?  Is this part of the algrorithm?

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
TurboK
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 137
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 10:16:42 PM
 #70

At this rate, it's getting impossible for single card users to make more than a couple dozen bucks with 24/7 mining. I'm down to 0.8 btc or so a day with my 380mhash/s 6950. Which means I will just about make 10btc by the next difficulty increase - that's ~80$ IF the prices stay well above 8$ (which I doubt since they are peaking right now).

By the next difficulty increase, mining won't be profitable anymore with midrange cards, and will only make a little money with high end ones. If the difficulty increase keeps up, systems with 3-4 5870s won't make a btc a day by the end of the july.

12zJNWtM2HknS2EPLkT9QPSuSq1576aKx7

Tradehill viral bullshit code: TH-R114411
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 10:47:00 PM
 #71

At this rate, it's getting impossible for single card users to make more than a couple dozen bucks with 24/7 mining. I'm down to 0.8 btc or so a day with my 380mhash/s 6950. Which means I will just about make 10btc by the next difficulty increase - that's ~80$ IF the prices stay well above 8$ (which I doubt since they are peaking right now).

By the next difficulty increase, mining won't be profitable anymore with midrange cards, and will only make a little money with high end ones. If the difficulty increase keeps up, systems with 3-4 5870s won't make a btc a day by the end of the july.

You are only looking at part of the equation.  Price is also increasing.  Last year it took 10,000 BTC to buy a pizza.

The BTC you can mine in a day are actually worth more $ than before, despite the difficulty increases.  

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7427.0

At some point there will be an issue of electricity costs, but we aren't there yet, and many people don't pay for electricity or have very low rates.

If you are smart and efficient you can make as much money mining as almost any time since December.  Note that money made by mining and then holding the BTC while their value increased does not count as mining profit.
xenon481
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 10:50:20 PM
 #72

You are only looking at part of the equation.  Price is also increasing.  Last year it took 10,000 BTC to buy a pizza.

And when price is increasing, it is more profitable to purchase BTC than it is to purchase hardware for mining. If you have existing hardware, the decision comes down to whether or not the electricity cost is lower than the value earned mining. And if you have excess hardware, it might be more profitable to sell the excess hardware to purchase BTC.

Tips Appreciated: 171TQ2wJg7bxj2q68VNibU75YZB22b7ZDr
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 10:55:41 PM
 #73

You are only looking at part of the equation.  Price is also increasing.  Last year it took 10,000 BTC to buy a pizza.

And when price is increasing, it is more profitable to purchase BTC than it is to purchase hardware for mining. If you have existing hardware, the decision comes down to whether or not the electricity cost is lower than the value earned mining. And if you have excess hardware, it might be more profitable to sell the excess hardware to purchase BTC.

Sorry, let me restate that more clearly:

"Price has also increased."

So the ratio between price and difficulty really has not changed much since December and in fact is higher than average.  Saying that it doesn't make sense to mine any more because the difficulty has gone up so much is wrong given that the price has gone up even more.

This does not mean that you should (or should not) buy mining hardware. 

It also does not mean prices are (or are not) going to increase in the future.
TurboK
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 137
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 11:23:36 PM
 #74

You are only looking at part of the equation.  Price is also increasing.  Last year it took 10,000 BTC to buy a pizza.

The BTC you can mine in a day are actually worth more $ than before, despite the difficulty increases.  

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7427.0

At some point there will be an issue of electricity costs, but we aren't there yet, and many people don't pay for electricity or have very low rates.

If you are smart and efficient you can make as much money mining as almost any time since December.  Note that money made by mining and then holding the BTC while their value increased does not count as mining profit.

I was talking about the last few weeks, not last year. Difficulty quadripled, while price has stayed in the 6-9$ range. If the current difficulty increase keeps up, then in a month, single card users won't make a large enough quantity of btc for it to be worth bothering. And by the end of summer, electricity costs won't be covered either.

Of course, this won't be the case if price shoots up from 9$ to 30$, but it has been stagnating for quite a while now, so I find that a little unlikely.

12zJNWtM2HknS2EPLkT9QPSuSq1576aKx7

Tradehill viral bullshit code: TH-R114411
swerving
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 13
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 26, 2011, 11:23:57 PM
 #75

I'm personally worried that the BTC will see some downward pressure as difficulty increases. This is just speculation so take it with a grain of salt, but I'm sure that there are more than a few miners that will sell all their bitcoins they've accumulated as soon as it becomes unprofitable to mine.

Hopefully if this happens it will just be temporary dips, though.
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 26, 2011, 11:37:29 PM
 #76

I was talking about the last few weeks, not last year. Difficulty quadripled, while price has stayed in the 6-9$ range.

Yes, but that was after a huge increase in price without a huge increase in difficulty.

Look at the graphs I linked.   There is nothing unusual about the relationship between difficulty and price right now.

Quote
If the current difficulty increase keeps up, then in a month, single card users won't make a large enough quantity of btc for it to be worth bothering. And by the end of summer, electricity costs won't be covered either.

Only if price doesn't increase.   Historically, the relationship between price and difficulty has tended to stay in a fairly narrow range, which suggests either price will increase along with difficulty or difficulty won't increase that much.
rezin777
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 12:10:17 AM
 #77

Difficulty quadripled, while price has stayed in the 6-9$ range.

Difficulty lags behind price. Here is what caused the difficulty quadrupling.



When mining suddenly becomes insanely profitable, like it did then, it takes time for new hardware to hit the network (whether it be from newcomers seeing the amount of money to be made, or previous miners seeing the amount of money to be made). You don't just see the price go nuts, then turn on the extra 10 gpus you had sitting around doing nothing. You have to buy, wait for for shipping, assemble, configure, etc. And if you are a new miner, that takes even longer (because you have to post threads asking why your shit doesn't work). Then you have the people that hear from their friends that they are making "money for nothing" and they join in as well. Until eventually mining isn't insanely profitable anymore, it's merely profitable for those who are efficient, those who don't know/care if they are losing money, or those who don't pay for their hardware/electricity.

I assume, if the price jumps again, there will be even more crazy difficulty jumps and the old miners will see these posts pop up again from all the new miners. And if the price does jump again, we won't see all the "mining, does it worth it?" threads for a few weeks because they lag behind the price as well!
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 1047



View Profile
May 27, 2011, 12:27:29 AM
 #78

When mining suddenly becomes insanely profitable, like it did then, it takes time for new hardware to hit the network (whether it be from newcomers seeing the amount of money to be made, or previous miners seeing the amount of money to be made). You don't just see the price go nuts, then turn on the extra 10 gpus you had sitting around doing nothing. You have to buy, wait for for shipping, assemble, configure, etc. And if you are a new miner, that takes even longer (because you have to post threads asking why your shit doesn't work). Then you have the people that hear from their friends that they are making "money for nothing" and they join in as well.

Even then, it still takes some time for difficulty to catch up because of how the difficulty-calculating algorithm works.

Quote
all the "mining, does it worth it?" threads

LOL
rezin777
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 01:05:58 AM
 #79

Even then, it still takes some time for difficulty to catch up because of how the difficulty-calculating algorithm works.

Good point.

To show this in effect, notice that we just had a difficulty increase, yet we are still finding blocks faster than 6 per hour. (We are at around 10-11 per hour.)

The difficulty adjusted to the average of the last period, but by the end of the period, we were above the average.
JJG
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 10


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 02:19:18 AM
 #80

Even then, it still takes some time for difficulty to catch up because of how the difficulty-calculating algorithm works.

Good point.

To show this in effect, notice that we just had a difficulty increase, yet we are still finding blocks faster than 6 per hour. (We are at around 10-11 per hour.)

The difficulty adjusted to the average of the last period, but by the end of the period, we were above the average.

A good indicator that the difficulty increases won't be slowing down much, if at all, for the next round at least.
SgtSpike
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 27, 2011, 03:00:38 AM
 #81

Even then, it still takes some time for difficulty to catch up because of how the difficulty-calculating algorithm works.

Good point.

To show this in effect, notice that we just had a difficulty increase, yet we are still finding blocks faster than 6 per hour. (We are at around 10-11 per hour.)

The difficulty adjusted to the average of the last period, but by the end of the period, we were above the average.
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the block/hr numbers are based on a 24 or 48 hr period.  So we still have quite a few hours of high block-finding-rates from the previous difficulty included in the latest calculation at bitcoincharts (which is where I am assuming you got the blocks/hr number).

Right now though, it says 8.87 blocks/hr.  I imagine that number will continue to decrease for a bit longer as the older stats are thrown out of the average.
jspielberg
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 03:18:25 AM
 #82

I have been collecting my own block solving stats and the network since the difficulty retarget has been averaging between 7 and 7.5 Blocks/hour.

steelhouse
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 717
Merit: 501


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 03:30:38 AM
 #83

You can go to the frontpage of blockexplorer and see last 19 blocks took about 2:39.  Thus rate is 7.17 for last 19 blocks. or 3.7 Th/s total network speed.
sead
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 16
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 27, 2011, 06:49:20 AM
 #84

[dramatic classical music]

Difficulty adjusts to 434,877, a 78% increase

[taadaa.wav]

ps. maybe you should just adapt your reality and think like the difficulty and not the dollar rate represents how mutch
     a btc is worth in the near future Smiley
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 27, 2011, 08:04:49 AM
 #85

We must be down to 1 BTC per day per card now, roughly.
SgtSpike
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 27, 2011, 04:57:24 PM
 #86

We must be down to 1 BTC per day per card now, roughly.
Sounds about right, at least for the higher end cards or well-optimized ones.  Personally, I'm down to about 0.5BTC/card, but I have a 4650 in the mix.  Tongue
jasonk
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100


View Profile
May 28, 2011, 01:03:20 AM
 #87

4x 5830's and 2x 5850's and only pulling in about 3.7 BTC a day.
Basiley
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 28, 2011, 01:11:05 AM
 #88

when someone tired of mining and want to cheaply sell some hw to me -PM me Tongue
allinvain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2576
Merit: 1050



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 02:11:43 AM
 #89

I got dibs on any 5870s Smiley

xenon481
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 02:33:11 AM
 #90

when someone tired of mining and want to cheaply sell some hw to me -PM me Tongue

I am willing to sell you my (only used for 3 days) 5850 for 23BTC.

Tips Appreciated: 171TQ2wJg7bxj2q68VNibU75YZB22b7ZDr
allinvain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2576
Merit: 1050



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 02:38:40 AM
 #91

when someone tired of mining and want to cheaply sell some hw to me -PM me Tongue

I am willing to sell you my (only used for 3 days) 5850 for 23BTC.

Hmm 201.25. How's maybe $180 ? Wink


Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 07:15:03 AM
 #92

when someone tired of mining and want to cheaply sell some hw to me -PM me Tongue

I am willing to sell you my (only used for 3 days) 5850 for 23BTC.

Hmm 201.25. How's maybe $180 ? Wink



LOL, it would take over 20 days to recoup that, and that's only if there are no difficulty increases in that time and the price stays at $8.
CalibrataBG
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 38
Merit: 0


View Profile
May 28, 2011, 08:52:38 AM
 #93

Some people just can't get it! You keep up building mining rigs and all you'll get is increaced difficulty to a point where you won't even be able to pay your electricity bills.
So keep up building $2000 mining rigs you idiots! Let me see you pay them.
I can see it now ... the second hand GPU market will be flooded with cheap ati cards.
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2520
Merit: 1006



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 08:53:59 AM
 #94

Some people just can't get it! You keep up building mining rigs and all you'll get is increaced difficulty to a point where you won't even be able to pay your electricity bills.
So keep up building $2000 mining rigs you idiots! Let me see you pay them.
I can see it now ... the second hand GPU market will be flooded with cheap ati cards.

yes please, also flood me with your cheap american power, please!

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 09:13:36 AM
 #95

Some people just can't get it! You keep up building mining rigs and all you'll get is increaced difficulty to a point where you won't even be able to pay your electricity bills.
So keep up building $2000 mining rigs you idiots! Let me see you pay them.
I can see it now ... the second hand GPU market will be flooded with cheap ati cards.

LOL, yeah...

2 more difficulty increases (1 GPU = $2 per day @ $8 per BTC) like the ones we just witnessed, may result in a good number of people's IQ's recovering thus realising the end is nigh.
SgtSpike
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1001



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 06:01:12 PM
 #96

Some people just can't get it! You keep up building mining rigs and all you'll get is increaced difficulty to a point where you won't even be able to pay your electricity bills.
So keep up building $2000 mining rigs you idiots! Let me see you pay them.
I can see it now ... the second hand GPU market will be flooded with cheap ati cards.
That might be true, but in the meantime, I'll take my $30/day of freshly minted bitcoins.  Wink

These charts seem to indicate that a lot of people have called it quits though too.  I expect difficulty to be nearly flat this next time around... 10% is my projection.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
Chucksta
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100



View Profile
May 28, 2011, 08:06:37 PM
 #97

Some people just can't get it! You keep up building mining rigs and all you'll get is increaced difficulty to a point where you won't even be able to pay your electricity bills.
So keep up building $2000 mining rigs you idiots! Let me see you pay them.
I can see it now ... the second hand GPU market will be flooded with cheap ati cards.
That might be true, but in the meantime, I'll take my $30/day of freshly minted bitcoins.  Wink

These charts seem to indicate that a lot of people have called it quits though too.  I expect difficulty to be nearly flat this next time around... 10% is my projection.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Nice income, gratz...

I'll leave out my dark predictions of doom and gloom, and instead bathe in your positive vibes towards the next difficulty setting Smiley

DarkKnightNomeD
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 02:23:41 PM
 #98

whats the projection for this difficulty raise?

EDIT - Nevermind, i skipped a page on accident
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [All]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!