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Author Topic: Beat a dice site using martingale  (Read 3923 times)
LOBSTER
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December 07, 2014, 04:01:30 PM
 #21

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

It's a +EV strategy only if you have an infinite bankroll Tongue

It might even be a +EV strategy if your bankroll can take 35 streak of losses. Never heard anymore, and have done a few simulations.
Never came over that, but that might also mean that your first bet would be like 1 satoshi, which would be pointless.

The streak of 35 losses is the most curious thing I've ever heard. It's a probability of ~2,9*10ˆ-11...
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December 07, 2014, 04:08:22 PM
 #22

Martingale is a +EV strategy...if you bet 0.
If you bet real money, you will end up in so much loss that you will cry.

DarKSpectrE
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December 07, 2014, 05:30:48 PM
 #23

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

It's a +EV strategy only if you have an infinite bankroll Tongue

It might even be a +EV strategy if your bankroll can take 35 streak of losses. Never heard anymore, and have done a few simulations.
Never came over that, but that might also mean that your first bet would be like 1 satoshi, which would be pointless.

The streak of 35 losses is the most curious thing I've ever heard. It's a probability of ~2,9*10ˆ-11...

I just got hit by a 25 loss streak which is pretty rare on 3.30x payout on Primedice today. The longer you play, the probability of getting busted approaches towards 1 at a faster rate.
DarKSpectrE
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December 07, 2014, 05:31:26 PM
 #24

Martingale is a +EV strategy...if you bet 0.
If you bet real money, you will end up in so much loss that you will cry.

Lol. I believe the only strategy that is geniune +EV is win the first bet and then GTFO.
lolled
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December 07, 2014, 08:40:59 PM
 #25

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

It's a +EV strategy only if you have an infinite bankroll Tongue

It might even be a +EV strategy if your bankroll can take 35 streak of losses. Never heard anymore, and have done a few simulations.
Never came over that, but that might also mean that your first bet would be like 1 satoshi, which would be pointless.

The streak of 35 losses is the most curious thing I've ever heard. It's a probability of ~2,9*10ˆ-11...

I just got hit by a 25 loss streak which is pretty rare on 3.30x payout on Primedice today. The longer you play, the probability of getting busted approaches towards 1 at a faster rate.

streak of 25 at 3.3x is not that uncommon. However at 50% it would be.

lightfoot
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December 07, 2014, 08:56:52 PM
 #26

I find it weird that people who use bitcoins, which are generated in a purely random method, can't get the point that it is impossible to beat the odds on gambling games. If the house has an edge, they will "win". The rate at which they win is based on that statistical edge, and it's different for every game.

In the real world, it's best to play balanced games with a minimal house edge. Craps is a good example: If they load the dice somehow you can simply play the don't pass/don't come and win over the house. Frankly speaking it's impossible for the house to cheat (the only reason the house maintains an edge against the don't bettor is because a 12 is a push, not a payout on a come-out roll. That's literally it).

However electronically someone can rig the program regardless of the bettor, so electronic games can't be inherently balanced.

Anyway, moral is if you gamble and are not the house you will lose. Always. That is why Vegas is built with all those pretty buildings and fountains.

Just like a block will drop every 10 minutes.
ironlambda
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December 07, 2014, 09:31:40 PM
 #27

does anyone know the win percent to use it? like when you do win rolls. 5% more wins?
Salmon1989
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December 07, 2014, 09:41:28 PM
 #28

What do you mean by "beat a dice site"?
If you want to get a gambling profit, you could do so if you are lucky.
If you want to have an advantage over the house, then no it is not possible.

Omikifuse
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December 07, 2014, 09:49:58 PM
 #29

What do you mean by "beat a dice site"?
If you want to get a gambling profit, you could do so if you are lucky.
If you want to have an advantage over the house, then no it is not possible.

guess he means make the house edge negative, that is, you expected to win.

It is impossible unless you find a way to hack the site, no matter if you use martingale or any other betting system or not

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December 08, 2014, 01:21:26 AM
 #30

if martingale works, i think most dice sites would be out of business.. just saying lol.
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December 08, 2014, 02:00:27 AM
 #31

Over the long term, you cannot win by gambling against the odds.  Martingale doesn't change the odds.  Save your money.
MadZ
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December 08, 2014, 03:51:45 PM
 #32

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

It's a +EV strategy only if you have an infinite bankroll Tongue

It might even be a +EV strategy if your bankroll can take 35 streak of losses. Never heard anymore, and have done a few simulations.
Never came over that, but that might also mean that your first bet would be like 1 satoshi, which would be pointless.

There is no +EV strategy for gambling. Perhaps if you had a greater bankroll than the house, but this is limited by a limit on your maximum bet return.
Shogen
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December 08, 2014, 04:24:58 PM
 #33

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

It's a +EV strategy only if you have an infinite bankroll Tongue

It might even be a +EV strategy if your bankroll can take 35 streak of losses. Never heard anymore, and have done a few simulations.
Never came over that, but that might also mean that your first bet would be like 1 satoshi, which would be pointless.

There is no +EV strategy for gambling. Perhaps if you had a greater bankroll than the house, but this is limited by a limit on your maximum bet return.

It will still have a negative EV, no matter how much gambling fund you have.
And what is the point of gambling if you have an infinite bankroll lol?

ticoti
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December 08, 2014, 04:37:38 PM
 #34

I have tried,but it is not a good system,you have to have a large bank to get a good profit,and a solid system
however,the site edge can beat you
Sutters Mill
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December 08, 2014, 04:41:11 PM
 #35

Assume I got 100000 BTC.

I start doing martingale from 1 BTC.
I will lose out, because I will reach a point in which the bet I should be playing will be greater than the max bet allowed in the particular site.
Plus, there is an additional problem of house edge.

So, your expected return is negative, at least in theory.

Personally, I never use martingale, and I am not interested in dice sites too.

But what if you had 10000 btc and started off betting 0.000001? I can't imagine you'll hit a loss streak big enough to hit that loss streak as long as you don't play for infinity and quit whilst you have a decent profit.
Chemistry1988
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December 08, 2014, 04:47:31 PM
 #36

Assume I got 100000 BTC.

I start doing martingale from 1 BTC.
I will lose out, because I will reach a point in which the bet I should be playing will be greater than the max bet allowed in the particular site.
Plus, there is an additional problem of house edge.

So, your expected return is negative, at least in theory.

Personally, I never use martingale, and I am not interested in dice sites too.

But what if you had 10000 btc and started off betting 0.000001? I can't imagine you'll hit a loss streak big enough to hit that loss streak as long as you don't play for infinity and quit whilst you have a decent profit.

Yup the chance for such a long loss streak is extremely small, but don't forget how many rolls you need to do to get a "decent profit".

In your example, you will gain 0.000001 bitcoin for every win, so you will need to win 1,000,000 rounds in order to win 1 bitcoin (just 0.01% of your original 10000 bitcoin).
jasabbm
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December 08, 2014, 05:20:52 PM
 #37

I think that martingale strategy could be work only for short terms and with a good initial stack.
BitCoinNutJob
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December 08, 2014, 05:44:15 PM
 #38

Is there anyone that has thought about beating a dice site using martingale?

Anyone can, you just need infinite money.  Seriously though even if anyone was it wouldn't mean martingale is any more effective then currently.
Finchy
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December 08, 2014, 06:08:20 PM
 #39

Martingale is pretty dangerous cos it sucks many a newb in. It seems like you can't lose at first as you always win your money back plus more, but then you hit that loss streak and bust within a few seconds. Most people learn the hardway but there is no foolproof way to beat the house unfortunately.
BitCoinPokerBro
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December 08, 2014, 06:24:33 PM
 #40

One does not simply beat fixed odds

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