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Author Topic: Now we know my posts about ASICs were correct  (Read 2392 times)
SgtSpike
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June 21, 2012, 12:28:55 AM
 #21

I like playing dangerous games with money...  Wink
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seriouscoin
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June 23, 2012, 02:11:31 AM
 #22

In all honesty, bitcoin is in dangerous stage if BFL's ASIC is true.

1. They can deliver the performance: Everyone will shoot themselves in the foot. Bitcoin network is no longer being decentralized when big players come in (cough....BFL's VC )

2. They cant deliver the products, and it turns into the WORST scam ever in Bitcoin history.


Choose one or we should propose a change in algorithm.

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June 23, 2012, 03:31:15 AM
 #23

1. They can deliver the performance: Everyone will shoot themselves in the foot. Bitcoin network is no longer being decentralized when big players come in (cough....BFL's VC )

I don't see how them delivering their product = end of decentralization. This is an argument that has gone roundyround, and I think it's a flawed one.

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seriouscoin
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June 23, 2012, 03:37:51 AM
 #24

1. They can deliver the performance: Everyone will shoot themselves in the foot. Bitcoin network is no longer being decentralized when big players come in (cough....BFL's VC )

I don't see how them delivering their product = end of decentralization. This is an argument that has gone roundyround, and I think it's a flawed one.

Because BFL is the ONLY supplier of such technology. The technology that can change ROI of each customer.

Note: i dont say miners are the players. If this ASIC product comes to life, every miners will be basically buying bonds from BFL.
nedbert9
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June 23, 2012, 04:03:05 AM
 #25

1. They can deliver the performance: Everyone will shoot themselves in the foot. Bitcoin network is no longer being decentralized when big players come in (cough....BFL's VC )

I don't see how them delivering their product = end of decentralization. This is an argument that has gone roundyround, and I think it's a flawed one.

Because BFL is the ONLY supplier of such technology. The technology that can change ROI of each customer.

Note: i dont say miners are the players. If this ASIC product comes to life, every miners will be basically buying bonds from BFL.



It's a consolidation of power / leverage over the miner base.  BFL relies solely on the miner base + mining difficulty/exchange rate to be profitable.  

You could compare the mining community to the insurance business.  BFL profits from front end, point-in-time healthy difficulty/exchange rate conditions while the mining community takes on the tail end risk of possible future downturns in mining profitability.  Mining community losses will only be realized if/when two items are discovered.  How much over ASIC production cost have miners paid (estimates are 10x+) and just how poorly difficulty/exchange rate affects ROI.

One could think of it another way.  Hedging.  Mining is the market.  The source of revenue.  BFL is indirectly consuming mining subsidy and depending on how high over production costs the ASICs are it would be effectively hedging against downturns in the direct source of revenue.

BFL has no other current avenue for revenue.  It really isn't a safe thing.  And I think this because I don't believe a single vendor can be trusted with 90%+ of market share.

Competition, especially from the mining community (less possibility of cartel like collusion or price fixing), would allow for greater leverage on the part of the mining community for enforcement of fair play.

Because the mining community is taking on tail risk the community needs to collectively cover it's tail Wink  One method of doing so is to scrutinize the profit margins of the vendor poised to hold the vast majority of market share.





 
David_Benz
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June 23, 2012, 04:39:20 AM
 #26

Asic will destroy bitcoin.  Watch.

It will no longer be something that the regular Joe can participate in.

Thanks BFL.

I am the Bitcoinica Hacker.
nedbert9
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June 23, 2012, 04:43:06 AM
 #27

Asic will destroy bitcoin.  Watch.

It will no longer be something that the regular Joe can participate in.

Thanks BFL.

Yeah, thinking about selling my singles.

I'm not ready to pull the trigger on the trade-in / pre order.  And if I wait a couple of weeks my ROI might be totally gone.  *shrugs*
SgtSpike
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June 23, 2012, 05:02:12 AM
 #28

Asic will destroy bitcoin.  Watch.

It will no longer be something that the regular Joe can participate in.

Thanks BFL.
Because... why?  Does the regular Joe not have $150 to spend?
aqrulesms
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June 23, 2012, 05:05:50 AM
 #29

Asic will destroy bitcoin.  Watch.

It will no longer be something that the regular Joe can participate in.

Thanks BFL.
Because... why?  Does the regular Joe not have $150 to spend?

No, but it would be from the possible negligible amount of income made from a Jalapeno if ASICs thoroughly saturate the network.

What is so concerning is how low the prices are for the ASICs.
BoardGameCoin
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June 23, 2012, 05:09:54 AM
 #30

Having a 'jalapeno' be an insignificant amount of hashing power would be the best possible thing for the bitcoin network. Ideally, even the SC rig will be viewed as comparatively insignificant in 2 years.

-bgc

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
BoardGameCoin
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June 23, 2012, 05:15:38 AM
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I get the sense that all you folks who are claiming asics will hurt decentralization don't really understand how the crypto works. I think you're just hurt that your current hashing power will be insignificant. Centralization and ASICs are orthogonal, and right now the network is VULNERABLE to the threat of someone making an ASIC and NOT sharing. BFL making an ASIC as early as possible and distributing it to as many people as possible (think jalapeno) is precisely how to make the network more secure. I wish all the 'ASICs are bad' ignorance would stop top-posting to its own echo chamber. Ideally we'd have more than one ASIC manufacturer, and I believe that will come in time. 'til then, I for one am glad BFL is making it less easy for a nation-state ( or even mid-size corporation at current hash levels ) to screw with the history of transactions.

-bgc

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
seriouscoin
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June 23, 2012, 08:17:57 AM
 #32

I get the sense that all you folks who are claiming asics will hurt decentralization don't really understand how the crypto works. I think you're just hurt that your current hashing power will be insignificant. Centralization and ASICs are orthogonal, and right now the network is VULNERABLE to the threat of someone making an ASIC and NOT sharing. BFL making an ASIC as early as possible and distributing it to as many people as possible (think jalapeno) is precisely how to make the network more secure. I wish all the 'ASICs are bad' ignorance would stop top-posting to its own echo chamber. Ideally we'd have more than one ASIC manufacturer, and I believe that will come in time. 'til then, I for one am glad BFL is making it less easy for a nation-state ( or even mid-size corporation at current hash levels ) to screw with the history of transactions.

-bgc

Idiot, whos behind BFL? Whos their VC?

I didnt say miners falling out of mining game is decentralization....

Its the player behind BFL who can change the network hashrate distribution. Thats the centralization problem.

 
DeepBit
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June 23, 2012, 08:28:26 AM
 #33

Asic will destroy bitcoin.  Watch.
It will no longer be something that the regular Joe can participate in.
Looks like you forgot that "Bitcoin" and "mining" is not the same thing. You don't have to mine if you are just using bitcoins as a payment system.

Yes, decentralization is cool and BFL's competitors will take care of this.

Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net ~ 3600 GH/s, Both payment schemes, instant payout, no invalid blocks !
Coming soon: ICBIT Trading platform
hardpick
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June 23, 2012, 09:45:09 AM
 #34

I think if bitcoin as a merchant gateway is successfull ie lots of people use bitcoin - lots of transactions -- it may lead to bitcoin prices increasing -(lot of miners are not selling bitcoins because of low prices and this may cause a shortage of bitcoins and lead to higher prices)- then asic mining because of low electricty usage will be a good source of income for miners -- bear in mine in december bitcoin income will halve (50 to 25) . anyway if you are a miner the best is for you start using bitcoin and get your friends involved -- hoping if a lot of non miners start buying bitcoins and use them for purchase .
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